Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Andre]

Nah. We're just seeing Remco's base level. That's still good enough to win a week long WT race

you might probably be absolutely right.

 

[Oldermanish]

He has peculiar legs, to keep coming back and then dusting everyone near him in the last hundred meters is unusual. He's like a Mack truck with a sprint. I wonder if he has some sort of longer term issue with covid that is keeping him just under his best level. It doesn't seem like it's just a lack of miles.

Hugh, welcome back.
You can be slyly hilarious.

 

[Extinction]

Nah. We're just seeing Remco's base level. That's still good enough to win a week long WT race

I think there are two possibilities. Either, as you say, he's at base level. If this were the case, then he can only improve and after the race be ready to tackle a mini-altitude camp to then debut at the Tour. The other possibility is that the disruption to his Giro plans took away his sharpness and that after TdS he will need to shut down, reboot and then prepare for August.

Today's stage should give a better indication if he's improving or not and hence which of the two stated possibilities seems more accurate.

 

[peterfin]

Remco says that he misses 20-30 watts during the climbs. Normally he should push 400-430 watt and now it's 380-390 watts. He does feel that it gets better when the altitude increases. He thinks the more gradual climbs of today will be better for him. He also thinks his level can improve the coming days.

 

[Riek s]

Remco says that he misses 20-30 watts during the climbs. Normally he should push 400-430 watt and now it's 380-390 watts. He does feel that it gets better when the altitude increases. He thinks the more gradual climbs of today will be better for him. He also thinks his level can improve the coming days.

He also said he is using the "Almeida-tactic"

I guess that is what the previous posters said about smart. letting go to not do the accelerations. (I guess watching live instead of live ticker + some screencaps give a better indication on that).

 

[Venge 82]

He thinks the more gradual climbs of today will be better for him

That's why I actually believe the TdF will suit him better than the Giro or Vuelta, where there are more steep climbs... On the other hand, competition is tougher, the general level is higher and the stress and media attention in the TdF reaches completely other levels. Seeing his current shape (good, but not brilliant), I have to review my initial idea. It's good he will not go to the TdF this year.

 

[Red Rick]

Feeling better at higher altitude may just mean he was overheating or the group slowed down a bit, otherwise it doesnt really make sense

 

[Berniece]

Feeling better at higher altitude may just mean he was overheating or the group slowed down a bit, otherwise it doesnt really make sense

He was just feeling better closer to the finish, and at the same time the altitude was also higher. They aren't correlated, they just happened at the same time. Because like you said, otherwise it doesn't make sense.

 

[Lequack]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V9KRHvjiVE

 

[Gigs_98]

How is it interesting? He didn't hit the the climbing level required until like a year ago and has only done like 3 WT level 1 week since.

You mean the guy who won Algarve, Burgos and Pologne in 2020 couldn't have possibly won a bigger WT stage race before last season?
C'mon you are clearly disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing. Show me a single rider who has won this many high level stage races without ever winning PN, TA, Catalunya, Pais Vasco, Romandie, Dauphine or the TdS, those 7 probably being the consensus 7 biggest one week stage races. I'm not saying this is the crazies cycling statistic in existence, I just think it's a bit of an outlier.

 

[Netserk]

You mean the guy who won Algarve, Burgos and Pologne in 2020 couldn't have possibly won a bigger WT stage race before last season?
C'mon you are clearly disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing. Show me a single rider who has won this many high level stage races without ever winning PN, TA, Catalunya, Pais Vasco, Romandie, Dauphine or the TdS, those 7 probably being the consensus 7 biggest one week stage races. I'm not saying this is the crazies cycling statistic in existence, I just think it's a bit of an outlier.

Yeah, quite weak results so far:

Just compare him to the July peaker:

 

[peterfin]

He was just feeling better closer to the finish, and at the same time the altitude was also higher. They aren't correlated, they just happened at the same time. Because like you said, otherwise it doesn't make sense.

It must be that relative to the others he feels better because he has more energy in his tank. It can't be because of the watts. Without a training camp at high elevation his FTP at 2000m will drop ~15% vs only ~10% for those that did the training. That's likely the 5% power he is missing. His base level is good enough and not slacking of, he is just missing the red blood cells that give him that extra kick in the mountains.

 

[Red Rick]

You mean the guy who won Algarve, Burgos and Pologne in 2020 couldn't have possibly won a bigger WT stage race before last season?
C'mon you are clearly disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing. Show me a single rider who has won this many high level stage races without ever winning PN, TA, Catalunya, Pais Vasco, Romandie, Dauphine or the TdS, those 7 probably being the consensus 7 biggest one week stage races. I'm not saying this is the crazies cycling statistic in existence, I just think it's a bit of an outlier.

Why are pre crash results relevant when he did only 1 of the mentioned races before it?

The sample size of Evenepoel in these races is simply tiny.

And the Big 7 races tend to have bigger climbs than Poland and Algarve. Burgos is the only 2.pro race he did win with significant mountains.

Tirreno and Itzulia last year weremt surprising cause he wasnt climbing well enough, Catalunya wasnt that surprising cause it was against a really good Roglic on a 0 TT route.

The only weird one is Suisse and thats if you assume he should be able to win those races off peak level

 

[Big Doopie]

I have to review my initial idea. It's good he will not go to the TdF this year.

Kudos.

 

[Big Doopie]

The other possibility is that the disruption to his Giro plans took away his sharpness and that after TdS he will need to shut down, reboot and then prepare for August.

Shut down and reboot necessary and incoming.

But only after Belgian Nats. Might be able to do something there even with this form.

 

[Extinction]

Shut down and reboot necessary and incoming.

But only after Belgian Nats. Might be able to do something there even with this form.

I want to see how he goes today and the rest of the week, before giving my personal verdict.

 

[Extinction]

More than the altitude

He was just feeling better closer to the finish, and at the same time the altitude was also higher. They aren't correlated, they just happened at the same time. Because like you said, otherwise it doesn't make sense.

More than the altitude or body temp, the gradients for a bit lessened and he got a second wind. This could indicate his form is growing, because when you can ride yourself back and then start feeling better usually you are improving. This is why I'm very curious about today. If he doesn't get dropped he very well can win this TdS.

 

[Riek s]

The process Remco took after the giro DNF is very similar to someone who takes a break though.
2 weeks without a bike
than riding slow and not long
followed by a week with a bit longer rides. (maybe a little added intensity)
--> off to TDS.

He is basically in rebuild stage.

Not sure about his statement on altitude though, i guess it will become clear today.

 

[Frobisher Bay]

Shut down and reboot necessary and incoming.

But only after Belgian Nats. Might be able to do something there even with this form.

So someone who had to give up in the Giro, his first big goal of the season comes back into competition after 2 weeks off the bike, 1 week slowly rebuilding
and 1 week training camp in the Ardennes. In his return he finishes second in a TT, and 4th and 2nd in two mountain stages. Conclusion:
he should shut down and reboot.

Allright then.

 

[Big Doopie]

So someone who had to give up in the Giro, his first big goal of the season comes back into competition after 2 weeks off the bike, 1 week slowly rebuilding
and 1 week training camp in the Ardennes. In his return he finishes second in a TT, and 4th and 2nd in two mountain stages. Conclusion:
he should shut down and reboot.

Allright then.

You got it right the first time. Well done. No need to repeat myself. You did it for me. Much appreciated.

He needs altitude camp again, that’s exactly how it works. That work he did for giro shape is long gone. If he wants to be at top for Worlds (his next big goal), back to altitude is an absolute necessity. Cheers.

 

[Gigs_98]

Why are pre crash results relevant when he did only 1 of the mentioned races before it?

The sample size of Evenepoel in these races is simply tiny.

And the Big 7 races tend to have bigger climbs than Poland and Algarve. Burgos is the only 2.pro race he did win with significant mountains.

Tirreno and Itzulia last year weremt surprising cause he wasnt climbing well enough, Catalunya wasnt that surprising cause it was against a really good Roglic on a 0 TT route.

The only weird one is Suisse and thats if you assume he should be able to win those races off peak level

I never claimed there aren't any rational reasons for why his palmares looks that way. Just that the was it looks is very unusual. And as long as nobody can find me a rider with a similar amount of gc wins without ever winning a big 1 week stage race, I'm not gonna change my mind about that.

 

[Berniece]

You got it right the first time. Well done. No need to repeat myself. You did it for me. Much appreciated.

He needs altitude camp again, that’s exactly how it works. That work he did for giro shape is long gone. If he wants to be at top for Worlds (his next big goal), back to altitude is an absolute necessity. Cheers.

More than enough time for that after nationals. There are 6 weeks between nationals and WC RR. Which means he can go for altitude for at least 5 weeks. Should be enough.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Yeah, quite weak results so far:

Just compare him to the July peaker:

Vinge has also rode a lot more than Evenepoel yet their first 5 races done are very similar with Evenepoel having the better average placements and Vinge the two seconds. Vinge was also called a weak week stage racer at first as well.

 

[Berniece]

I always find it so weird how big the difference between his top- and “I just started racing again”-form is. The people that dropped him…

Not even sure he’ll be able to follow in the hills. If he can he might take some time with bonus seconds and otherwise he might take it with the TT. Although after seeing Ayuso today I’m not sure he’s able to win it. He was pretty good in Romandië.

 

[Extinction]

I think there are two possibilities. Either, as you say, he's at base level. If this were the case, then he can only improve and after the race be ready to tackle a mini-altitude camp to then debut at the Tour. The other possibility is that the disruption to his Giro plans took away his sharpness and that after TdS he will need to shut down, reboot and then prepare for August.

Today's stage should give a better indication if he's improving or not and hence which of the two stated possibilities seems more accurate.

Clearly hypothesis 2 now seems to be the more accurate scenario. Oh well, he's still not out of the GC struggle, but now it seems he would need a super TT to win. Ayuso did a huge performance today.