Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Jagartrott]

He just has more flesh: big, powerful legs, full of finest, fastest flesh.

Somehow I feel hungry now. And actually I am vegetarian. The image is very powerful.

 

[rghysens]

That's where I disagree as does Remco.

Remco admitted he had crap legs today. Rog did an amazing TT. All that equates to Rog losing a lot less time than expected

Evenepoel didn´t say he had crap legs, but "not his best legs". Furthermore I think he´s just slightly "worse" than last year. Gaps to everyone else (with the exception of Kuss) are as expected.

 

[Extinction]

Some are disappointed, but I‘d say Remco did a great, great ITT today. He only lost 16 seconds to Ganna. Remco was 0.5kms/hr slower than Ganna, on average.

The thing is, the course was perfect for both, Ganna and Remco. Remco‘s more aero (smaller), but Ganna has 22kgs more than Remco (83 to 61kgs). Ganna‘s legs both are considerably heavier than Remco‘s. I think Ganna still has a slight advantage. He just has more flesh: big, powerful legs, full of finest, fastest flesh.

I think it was a good day for Remco. He also gained 20seconds on Primoz, so he clearly had a great day.

And let's not forget they are riding two different races, Ganna didn't have to always expend valuable energy to remain in the GC hunt and certainly was "saved" as much as possible for the big TT performance he churned out today. In fact both Remco and Roglic, all things considered, rode pretty remarkably, with Primoz having the "right" TT legs and Evenepoel, despite gaining time, perhaps with less than perfect legs as he himself admitted. But against a specialist of the Italian's calibre, who also doesn't have to be at the front at the top of every mountain, losing time to him was to be expected. This takes nothing away from Pippo's performance, however, since 56 kmh average speed speaks for itself.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Some are disappointed, but I‘d say Remco did a great, great ITT today. He only lost 16 seconds to Ganna. Remco was 0.5kms/hr slower than Ganna, on average.

The thing is, the course was perfect for both, Ganna and Remco. Remco‘s more aero (smaller), but Ganna has 22kgs more than Remco (83 to 61kgs). Ganna‘s legs both are considerably heavier than Remco‘s. I think Ganna still has a slight advantage. He just has more flesh: big, powerful legs, full of finest, fastest flesh.

I think it was a good day for Remco. He also gained 20seconds on Primoz, so he clearly had a great day.

You mean it's Roglic that had a great day.

 

[peterfin]

JV is in a great spot but at the same time they are also facing some tactical decisions. Going for a red Kuss in Madrid means limiting Remco's chances to take bonus seconds. Going for a red Roglic means taking opportunities to grab seconds, including bonus seconds on Rogstomp mountain sprints. The Angliru and Tourmalet may be decisive to distance Remco but they don't know it yet. Actually, when it comes to pacing those 45-60 minutes climbs at max w/kg I am not that sure yet if a JV rider is better than Remco atm. Roglic presumably but we haven't seen enough to make that case hard.

 

[Oldermanish]

JV is in a great spot but at the same time they are also facing some tactical decisions. Going for a red Kuss in Madrid means limiting Remco's chances to take bonus seconds. Going for a red Roglic means taking opportunities to grab seconds, including bonus seconds on Rogstomp mountain sprints. The Angliru and Tourmalet may be decisive to distance Remco but they don't know it yet. Actually, when it comes to pacing those 45-60 minutes climbs at max w/kg I am not that sure yet if a JV rider is better than Remco atm. Roglic presumably but we haven't seen enough to make that case hard.

Start with tomorrow's uphill finish after the TT: who will have the better recovery?
JV will need to rely on some other teams to show aggression to save energy should the two sides of their strategy get challenged and that's where Remco can prosper. If it's up to his team to keep him in this they'll be aiming for a podium so QS should be hoping for help, soon. The longer the race goes on the more JV is favored IMO, barring crashes or complete collapse by Kuss or Vingo.

 

[Big Doopie]

It is my opinion/observation that Remco does not look very fresh.

I hope I am wrong but I would not be surprised if he ships huge time at some point.

 

[JosefK]

It is my opinion/observation that Remco does not look very fresh.

I hope I am wrong but I would not be surprised if he ships huge time at some point.

I think he's still very strong, but clearly not as dominant over the rest of the field as he was in last year's Vuelta. And Roglic is in better shape than he was last year at this time. ... But Remco could still win it.

 

[FroomeWagon]

"We have to play our cards with the three of us because Soudal may be a bit weak in the mountains. If we can isolate Remco, we can do something with that.

“So much can happen in the mountains. In the first half of a Grand Tour, it's always a game of seconds. But then, in one stage [of the second part], you can blow up.

"I feel really good, Primoz and Jonas are looking good as well, giving me a lot of help and helping boost my morale. In the team, our mood is really good.”

That was Kuss today quoted in the CN.

I wonder if Jumbo try to do to Remco what they did to Pogacar in the TDF two years ago. Isolate him and take turns attacking. But instead of it being only Vingegaard and Roglic on the attack, this time is is Vingegaard, Roglic and Kuss?

 

[Berniece]

Knowing his form should be better in week 2-3 and having trained on climbing efforts of 1 hour, I can still see him drop everyone on a climb. Just keep pushing your watts and see who remains.

 

[houtdffan]

That was Kuss today quoted in the CN.

I wonder if Jumbo try to do to Remco what they did to Pogacar in the TDF two years ago. Isolate him and take turns attacking. But instead of it being only Vingegaard and Roglic on the attack, this time is is Vingegaard, Roglic and Kuss?

won't work

Remco just sets a very hard tempo that makes attacks impossible in that case. Just as he did on Stage 8

Tourmalet is not Sierra Nevada at a 5%. Tourmalet is 7-10% the whole way up. Drafting will be far less important than it was on Sierra Nevada

 

[Unchained]

won't work

Remco just sets a very hard tempo that makes attacks impossible in that case. Just as he did on Stage 8

Tourmalet is not Sierra Nevada at a 5%. Tourmalet is 7-10% the whole way up. Drafting will be far less important than it was on Sierra Nevada

Great observation and even when Remco is not crushing it he pulled off a great time trial.. Lots of teams are going to attack Jumbo he doesn't have to and he is one of the strongest riders in every way so if marking Roglic is his primary task for a few days I think he is up to it. Sepp Kuss has to be uncharacteristically dynamic and try to go away ,from what I have seen Kuss is not even the strongest on Jumbo..he is going to have to ride above his pay grade and put a distance between himself and his teammates if he is chasing GC anything. If Remco follows his gut he will not chase Kuss and bank on a shallow resume from the American about riding off the front.. doesn't mean it can't be done..

 

[Extinction]

From what we have seen thus far, the pecking order in the mountains seems to be Roglic-Remco/Vingegaard/Ayuso/Mas(?)-Almeida-the rest, with Remco having conceded 32 secs and 3 secs to Roglic on two stages. Roglic thus seems to have a bit more pep uphill. So the big question is, will Roglic maintain this edge, increase it or lose it? On the face of it, I'd say he is unlikely to lose it. On the other hand, this of course also depends on Remco. Is he more likely to become stronger uphill (relative to the fatigue all riders have to manage in the third week) or more likely to be pushed over the edge to the cracking point on say the Tourmalet or Angrilu? I suppose that depends on his preparation, mental toughness and form naturally. At the moment, based on what we have seen so far, one would have to expect him in trouble and not being to follow Roglic's pace (or perhaps Vingegaard, depending on the effects of the Tour) at some point. Beyond those two, I really don't see anyone else cracking Evenepoel. Yet those two, and particularly Roglic, seem to be enough to prevent Remco from winning this Vuelta.

Based on what we have seen so far... because the other possible scenario is that Remco actually grows, doesn't get dropped and wins, given he is ahead of all but Kuss (who I can't see maintaining his 1'09" advantage to Madrid). For this to occur, however, I really think Evenepoel will have to exceed expectations (of which the TT was already marginally lower than expected/with Roglic's a bit higher). So it's the proverbial, time will tell.

 

[Netserk]

Knowing his form should be better in week 2-3 and having trained on climbing efforts of 1 hour, I can still see him drop everyone on a climb. Just keep pushing your watts and see who remains.

So he’ll have no excuse when he is found lacking on the hardest climbs?

 

[Berniece]

So he’ll have no excuse when he is found lacking on the hardest climbs?

The only excuse I can imagine is that the preparation for WC ITT was hard to combine with the preparation for the Vuelta. But for the moment I don't see any other excuse.

 

[Salvarani]

Knowing his form should be better in week 2-3 and having trained on climbing efforts of 1 hour, I can still see him drop everyone on a climb. Just keep pushing your watts and see who remains.

Thank you, I feel even more confident now that he will win this. Up with the fists Remco and fight for it!

 

[peterfin]

won't work

Remco just sets a very hard tempo that makes attacks impossible in that case. Just as he did on Stage 8

Tourmalet is not Sierra Nevada at a 5%. Tourmalet is 7-10% the whole way up. Drafting will be far less important than it was on Sierra Nevada

An other point is that he doesn’t engage in following one acceleration after the other. He just starts dieseling. If other diesels such as Almeida join him in the chase he may even spend less energy than the attackers.

They could also try it in valleys when he is isolated but due to his TT engine that's a game that potentially tires the JV's more than him, so there is a risk of a counter attack.

The current situation makes it also not that easy to attack Remco as they have a leader jersey to defend. I wonder what happens if Roglic attacks but can't distance Remco while Kuss is in trouble? Is he allowed to continue? I think that having Remco 1 minute behind is better for them than 30 seconds in front. On the other hand, Roglic may need to attack to ensure he can jump over Remco in the rankings because of the risk that Kuss fades?

 

[peterfin]

So he’ll have no excuse when he is found lacking on the hardest climbs?

If he loses minutes without an obvious reason he needs to accept that he is not (yet) at their level. It also means that in order to win a GC against Rog, Pog and Vingegaard there are a lot of things that need to go right and not just regarding his own preparation. So winning the TdF will be a huge challenge but it's not that he won't make a major goal of it.

 

[dennisdy]

From what we have seen thus far, the pecking order in the mountains seems to be Roglic-Remco/Vingegaard/Ayuso/Mas(?)-Almeida-the rest, with Remco having conceded 32 secs and 3 secs to Roglic on two stages. Roglic thus seems to have a bit more pep uphill. So the big question is, will Roglic maintain this edge, increase it or lose it? On the face of it, I'd say he is unlikely to lose it. On the other hand, this of course also depends on Remco. Is he more likely to become stronger uphill (relative to the fatigue all riders have to manage in the third week) or more likely to be pushed over the edge to the cracking point on say the Tourmalet or Angrilu? I suppose that depends on his preparation mental toughness and form naturally. At the moment, based on what we have seen so far, one would have to expect him in trouble and not being to follow Roglic's pace (or perhaps Vingegaard, depending on the effects of the Tour) at some point. Beyond those two, I really don't see anyone else cracking Evenepoel. Yet those two, and particularly Roglic, seem to be enough to prevent Remco from winning this Vuelta.

You left Kuss out of your analysis here. If Kuss takes off on one of the mountain stages, will Remco ignore this or feel compelled to chase? Don't forget what JV did to Pogacar on stage 11 of the '22 Tour. Remco needs to be very strong physically and psychologically.

 

[tobydawq]

You left Kuss out of your analysis here. If Kuss takes off on one of the mountain stages, will Remco ignore this or feel compelled to chase? Don't forget what JV did to Pogacar on stage 11 of the '22 Tour. Remco needs to be very strong physically and psychologically.

Fortunately for Remco, there's also UAE who might not want Kuss to get any leeway.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Fortunately for Remco, there's also UAE who might not want Kuss to get any leeway.

As long as it is only one of the threats and not multiple the other teams should help. Worst case scenario is 1 of UAE, Jumbo, and Mas go on the raid.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Roglic the favorite in my eyes, but Remco have also a chance to win it. I think it’s important that Remco will be focusing on Jumbo and that he doesn’t chase down for example Ayoso with 3 Jumbots on his wheel.

 

[Berniece]

I wonder what happens if Roglic attacks but can't distance Remco while Kuss is in trouble? Is he allowed to continue? I think that having Remco 1 minute behind is better for them than 30 seconds in front. On the other hand, Roglic may need to attack to ensure he can jump over Remco in the rankings because of the risk that Kuss fades?

If Roglic attacks, takes Evenepoel with him, and Kuss is fading, he'll stop taking turns. The issue is that Evenepoel will just keep riding his tempo, Kuss will still fade, and Roglic can sprint to take bonus seconds or maybe 2-3s in the sprint.

 

[Bolder]

If Kuss fades (which I think he will, sadly), Roglic will have to attack at some point. If Remco goes with him and can stay on his wheel, Roglic should pull the plug and prepare for a Remco watt bomb (or aim for bonus seconds if they're available). We've seen what a super strong and confident Remco can do when he's provoked into counter-attacking.

I agree that the wild cards are the UAE riders. But maybe that's what Vingegaard should be used for -- chasing down random attacks...

 

[Extinction]

You left Kuss out of your analysis here. If Kuss takes off on one of the mountain stages, will Remco ignore this or feel compelled to chase? Don't forget what JV did to Pogacar on stage 11 of the '22 Tour. Remco needs to be very strong physically and psychologically.

It's a dilemma, but I think he marks Roglic and, after all, Remco isn't the only one who needs to bring back Kuss, so he's not alone.