Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Davesta]

Given the team say he’s not ill, then it feels very much like a Simon Yates collapse, and I think it may prove to be the culmination of a few different factors - he had a stressful/emotional start to the race with the TT in the dark, the days of complaints about the organisation must have wasted emotional/psychological energy, let’s not forget he crashed after his stage win which also would have cost him energy & recovery, and whilst it hasn’t been the hardest GT there have been moments of hard racing like the crosswinds the other day…I would guess that all of those factors led to him having empty legs yesterday on the Aubisque, and as others have said he clearly then sat up and gave up on GC

 

[wickedw]

What benefit does he get from riding like Almeida today (if it was even possible for him)?
Salvage a top 10???

If he were 7min down he probably wouldnt be allowed in any breaks

Yes, salvage a top 10, if possible. You can see it as training on riding a gc if you like. I would be more impressed by an effort to do that than just going for stage wins if this was indeed "just a bad day".

As I said, phoning it in is psychological and I didn't expect him to do that as he has always kept going in the past, a trait that I thought made him a great candidate for a gc rider. Even on bad days he never quite cracked fully.

This and all the fuss he's been making or experiencing in the first week of the vuelta is concerning. Not feeling good in his skin? Doing the vuelta is too much of sacrafice again after the Giro exit? Spending too much time on building the brand rather than the rider?

 

[Miss Violet Smith]

Yes, salvage a top 10, if possible. You can see it as training on riding a gc if you like. I would be more impressed by an effort to do that than just going for stage wins if this was indeed "just a bad day".

As I said, phoning it in is psychological and I didn't expect him to do that as he has always kept going in the past, a trait that I thought made him a great candidate for a gc rider. Even on bad days he never quite cracked fully.

This and all the fuss he's been making or experiencing in the first week of the vuelta is concerning. Not feeling good in his skin? Doing the vuelta is too much of sacrafice again after the Giro exit? Spending too much time on building the brand rather than the rider?

Agree with this - I can't really see why he would _not_ fight for a top ten GC spot. If he didn't, that might actually be a different and potentially larger issue than the physical part.

Still! Hope springs eternal and I cross my fingers for him to have had a good overnight recovery and a much better stage today.

 

[Frobisher Bay]

As a fan of Evenepoel, I can't deny yesterday was one of the biggest deceptions in his still short career (with already a lot of highlights). Moreover since a lot of GT-Remco skeptics had been knocking on the fact he was unproven in stages with multiple HC-climbs. To bottle such a stage in epic fashion like yesterday, wasn't what I was hoping for. Must admit that even after the flashing start (unexpected time gain in the TTT, early stage victory) I already had the feeling he wasn't in an absolute killer form.
We must wait what the reasons are, but all in all it is beginning to look like for Evenepoel to be around the winners circle in a GT, the stars must align in a very specific way. With his talent to dominate one-day classics and TT's, this isn't a big shame, he could also focus on those classics and one-week tours (where he's rather unproven as well to be honest, Tour de Polgne and UAE TOUR are the only WT-stage races of one week he has won) and thrive there.
Anyway, let's see how today goes.

 

[danielovichdk2]

Where did you find that number ? Please share

Yeah. He did ~5.73 W/kg [Dr.F.] for 45 minutes on Aubisque. On Spandelles, he threw in the towel. —Unlike Almeida.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Where did you find that number ? Please share

Formula is the one used by Michele Ferrari which is VAM/200+(10*average gradient)

 

[Arked]

I don‘t think anyone can push over the limit if they‘re bad. Here he just made the impression of most big blowups like Simon Yates at the Giro in 2018 (or Landis in the 2006 Tour). He just fell out of the group early and then couldn‘t push on at all because he was already giving it all to stay in there. I don‘t think we should compare him to Almeida for example, who had the most incredible ride to limit his losses, riding on after being dropped by a big bunch 90 k out to finish Top 15 on the stage with minimal team support.

My theory is that Evenepoel is unreliable as a GC rider because he doesn‘t have a slim enough body type and is always pushing his weight down which maybe gets him to him in the second week. But there‘s a lot of logical consequences that aren‘t true at all, so I guess not.

Not only that. He is too dynamic for a reliable GT contender. Too many fast twitch and intermediate fibers. Not enough durability end endurance for a very long stage race because recovery deficits stack up dramatically. It may improve with age though.

 

[stonerider]

I noticed in the ITT that Remco looked too thick to battle on multiple mountain climbing stages. He needs to focus on 1 day races and 1 week stage races. I don't believe he'll ever be at the level of Pog and Vinge. It's not his fault, it's just the fact of the body and muscle type he was born with.

 

[Miss Violet Smith]

I realize the weight distribution may be different, but is his weight/height ratio really that different from Pogacar's? (Vingegaard of course in another bracket.)

 

[Berniece]

In his pre-race interview he said he cried a lot and thinks season might be too long but isn’t sure what happened

 

[peterfin]

In his interviews this Vuelta, Remco has said multiple times that he had issues during the early part of a stage. Normally he recovers and gets better when the stage progresses. Yesterday he had no chance to recover.

I think this is a clue for the team. What makes him tired early in the race while he gets better later on? He is a guy that excels in winning harsh +200 km races because he has more energy left in the tank than others so I don't buy the idea that his performance drops as the race progresses due to a lack of recovery. In this case its definitely not an argument as the races prior to this queen stage were not very demanding. As Almeida, somebody with a similar 'engine', also suffered there might be a relation with the body type. I think properly tuned pre-race tactics and nutrition are important to reduce his weakness. If Remco wants to progress he may need a team with the scientific tools and models to build robust tactics. Copy-pasting what others do (as he mentions in his videos) is not sufficient. Today, I think only JV excels at this and that's exactly why cycling starts to become one-dimensional. They are miles ahead of everybody else including UEA and Ineos. Yes they have exceptional riders but they are not only exceptional natural talents, they are individually tuned to excel way above similar talents in other teams.

 

[Netserk]

In his pre-race interview he said he cried a lot and thinks season might be too long but isn’t sure what happened

Season too long, really? He has fewer race days than last year. And fewer than his competition.

 

[Rob5091]

A lot of interesting points - lack of teammates/team experience with GT contenders, ability of 3 week racing and pressure from himself and others to win. He's only 23 but sounds a bit like he's burnt out already.
As was mentioned, I think he needs to come to terms with he'll never be a pure sprinter or a pure climber. He's just not built that way. In a way he's a lot like Alaphilippe, great on certain parcours and races but not quite there for GT's against top climbers.

 

[Valanga]

In his interviews this Vuelta, Remco has said multiple times that he had issues during the early part of a stage. Normally he recovers and gets better when the stage progresses. Yesterday he had no chance to recover.

I think this is a clue for the team. What makes him tired early in the race while he gets better later on? He is a guy that excels in winning harsh +200 km races because he has more energy left in the tank than others so I don't buy the idea that his performance drops as the race progresses due to a lack of recovery. In this case its definitely not an argument as the races prior to this queen stage were not very demanding. As Almeida, somebody with a similar 'engine', also suffered there might be a relation with the body type. I think properly tuned pre-race tactics and nutrition are important to reduce his weakness. If Remco wants to progress he may need a team with the scientific tools and models to build robust tactics. Copy-pasting what others do (as he mentions in his videos) is not sufficient. Today, I think only JV excels at this and that's exactly why cycling starts to become one-dimensional. They are miles ahead of everybody else including UEA and Ineos. Yes they have exceptional riders but they are not only exceptional natural talents, they are individually tuned to excel way above similar talents in other teams.

Exactly this. It's not about his team mates, it's about his entourage. In his youtube he was talking about how the peloton doesn't have secrets, they now have the same recipe of rice cakes as Ineos, and they make "slushies" too. Yeah well, I don't think it's about that Remco.
If they really have no clue why he had this massive off day, or they don't know how to prepare him and do a proper warm up for stage like yesterday, then they are a bunch of amateurs when it comes to GT racing and have serious issues in the team. You'll not solve this by taking in Landa I'm afraid.

Season too long, really? He has fewer race days than last year. And fewer than his competition.

It's not only about race days. But I guess you know that.

 

[Netserk]

It's not only about race days. But I guess you know that.

You think he trains more and harder than Vingegaard?

 

[Valanga]

You think he trains more and harder than Vingegaard?

I have honestly no idea. Perhaps Vingegaard trains more efficiently?

All I know is that he talked about being 3 months away from home to prepare for the Giro, 3 months away to train for the Vuelta, and that it might be too much.

 

[Lorzenz08]

I see a lot of similarity between Alaphilippe and Evenpoel.

During 2019 TdF Alaphilippe was hanging very well in the climbs, it's just that he was not at the level of Bernal. And once Bernal was free to attack, the reality caught up.

I would put it this way Alaphilippe and Evenpoel can climb well if it's not too much. Peak Alaphilippe could do great things up on 1 or 2 1st cat climbs. Evenpoel is a bit better, he can probably do very well up to 1 HC climb. But not over many weeks.

 

[Jagartrott]

Well done for fighting back and showing guts. Whatever his deficiencies, he has the spirit of a champion.

 

[peterfin]

Well done for fighting back and showing guts. Whatever his deficiencies, he has the spirit of a champion.

Seeing him race today makes yesterday even more of a mistery.

 

[Netserk]

Seeing him race today makes yesterday even more of a mistery.

A mystery that he gave up instead of hanging in like Almeida.

 

[Lequack]

A mystery that he gave up instead of hanging in like Almeida.

Well if you lose 5 minutes or 25 minutes doesn't really matter much if you're going for the win. Great to see him on the attack today.

 

[saunaking]

But who, apart from Roglic did have optimal preparation for this race?
Vingegaard certainly not.
Kuss?!
Ayuso fell twice during a prep races.
Mas also didn't have an ideal prep.

Bottom line is, he's not a natural GT contender, like for example Vingegaard, Roglic, or even Mas are, he's a born one-day racer, who could do very well in GT's when everything aligns for him. Sort of like Valverde. I hope he won't, like him, chase GT success throughout his whole career, at the expense of one-day racing.

I'd rather have him than Mas in a GT, that's for sure!!!

 

[saunaking]

Given the team say he’s not ill, then it feels very much like a Simon Yates collapse, and I think it may prove to be the culmination of a few different factors - he had a stressful/emotional start to the race with the TT in the dark, the days of complaints about the organisation must have wasted emotional/psychological energy, let’s not forget he crashed after his stage win which also would have cost him energy & recovery, and whilst it hasn’t been the hardest GT there have been moments of hard racing like the crosswinds the other day…I would guess that all of those factors led to him having empty legs yesterday on the Aubisque, and as others have said he clearly then sat up and gave up on GC

what was his whoop score?

 

[saunaking]

Yes, salvage a top 10, if possible. You can see it as training on riding a gc if you like. I would be more impressed by an effort to do that than just going for stage wins if this was indeed "just a bad day".

As I said, phoning it in is psychological and I didn't expect him to do that as he has always kept going in the past, a trait that I thought made him a great candidate for a gc rider. Even on bad days he never quite cracked fully.

This and all the fuss he's been making or experiencing in the first week of the vuelta is concerning. Not feeling good in his skin? Doing the vuelta is too much of sacrafice again after the Giro exit? Spending too much time on building the brand rather than the rider?

meh. you're telling me it would be preferable for him to be sitting behind UAE and TJV right now instead of risking it at the front of the race for a possible spectacular win??

 

[saunaking]

A mystery that he gave up instead of hanging in like Almeida.

lol where is Almeida today???