Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm kind of disappointed right now. Will try to post something later.

You can call a support hotline. REV-555-911

 

[CyclistAbi]

At that moment when Evenepoel started to lag behind. That is when better team support could have made a difference. TT likely won't be enough anymore. Lets see how Evenepoel does in the mountains.

 

[pvieira91]

You guys are very optimistic. whenever the race gets harder Remco loses time and you still think that he will overcome the difference in the TT. It's not logic to think like that. The most likely scenario is that Remco will continue to lose time, The big mountains are still ahead and I can't think of a scenario where Remco doesn't lose even more time. He is very tired and not in a good shape to face the competition and that's just natural.

 

[HelloDolly]

James Knox says it was bike handling

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395114073533173763

View: https://twitter.com/cycling_podcast/status/1395114073533173763?s=20

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You guys are very optimistic. whenever the race gets harder Remco loses time and you still think that he will overcome the difference in the TT. It's not logic to think like that. The most likely scenario is that Remco will continue to lose time, The big mountains are still ahead and I can't think of a scenario where Remco doesn't lose even more time. He is very tired and not in a good shape to face the competition and that's just natural.

Each time he lost time, there has been a definable reason for it, which does not necessarily have an impact on the rest of the race. He lost 11 seconds in the first hilly stage. There was in initial attack by Landa, Bernal reacted there was a gap and once the gap was established, Remco did not keep losing time. He has never been a punchy rider, and especially now with a short preperation and training, there was no more time to train his short efforts.
First MTF he did not lose time to Bernal, only boniseconds. Same problem here, he was outsprinted. It's not his thing.
Two days ago he lost time on the final gravel section. He was badly positioned and again he does lack the punch that Bernal has.
Today he was wasting energy due to a lack of technical and bikehandling skills on the gravel sections. You can make up for that, closing gap after gap, moving to the front again after every turn and corner, but you have to do a lot bigger efforts than your rivals and at a certain point you run out of energy. Also, after being dropped and Bernal going all out, he only lost 2 minutes, caught Bardet & Martinez, and nearly Soler and Ciccone. He he really been done and dusted, i don't think he would have been able to lose so little time.

While it's completely possible that he'll drop further back, due to a too short training period, the time he lost does not necessarily point to that being the case. There are enough reasonable explanations for each time he has lost time.

I think some of you are really exaggerating negatively.
He's still in 7th place. He lost two minutes, not 15.
Before the race I didn't expect him to be in contention for the win because of the lack of training, but then I got drawn in a bit in the hype, not only by you, but also because his team sounded pretty confident (and you must be very confident for GC if you leave Alvaro at home!!).
But so far this is no reason to pull him out of the race, unless he feels very fatigued. In terms of results a top10 would always be very strong with this preparation. There are quite a few good guys behind him.
The way I saw it he lost the time on the sterrato (only), I didn't watch him all of the time, but I saw him losing like 15 meters once on one of the gravel descents, that was clearly not because his legs are generally bad (at this point), but of course the repeated effort and maybe also the mental side drained him.
Anyway, we will see how he does in the next days. There is no need to be overdramatic at this point, and in no way does it say anything about his future abilities. He wasn't totally cooked for good, he seemed to have caught himself after a little while. Maybe he did not only struggle with the technical side but also with the repeated short punchy efforts, where on tarmac he is able to hold on but on gravel you have less slipstream effect/ more rolling resistance.

About the Almeida thing, I still don't understand and would honestly very much like to know what was going on. Could Almeida really be so bastardly? Did the team fight before this stage? Or was it more like Carolina suggested?

Who knows, but as Bonimenier said, according to the team, there were technical issues with communication. It's a flimsy excuse honestly, since he (Almeida) shouldn't need to be told to begin with, that he should look after Evenepoel, but on the other hand, he did do a lot of work once he went to help.

But i agree about Remco, it's not the end of the world, only a minute off podium. He didn't completely tank either, even caught guys from the first group. If he can bounce back, still a lot is possible. The main question is, were these the signs that he's running on fumes, or is nothing the matter and was it a bad day due to woeful bikehandling, making him burn through his energy reserves.

Maybe not, João had to ease the pace at least 2 times while pulling him so I think that the legs weren't there but we'll never know for sure

Had he started helping earlier, Remco would not have lost so much time in the first place. Both of them would have wasted less time and energy, and possibly even been able to (perhaps temporarilly) bridge the gap.

 

[Andre]

You can call a support hotline. REV-555-911

Muchas gracias

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

You guys are very optimistic. whenever the race gets harder Remco loses time and you still think that he will overcome the difference in the TT. It's not logic to think like that. The most likely scenario is that Remco will continue to lose time, The big mountains are still ahead and I can't think of a scenario where Remco doesn't lose even more time. He is very tired and not in a good shape to face the competition and that's just natural.

I don't disagree; however, I think he the only guy capable of winning the Giro barring Bernal's back flaring up/crash/etc. As I mentioned before it's extremely unlikely, but Remco has put in long breakaway efforts in the past. The complication is that Bernal will have Ganna to pace against these types of attacks.

Unless Remco is hell bent on limiting further losses to give him a shot at the podium, what's the to be lost if he attacks? He loses 10-15 minutes if he fails.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't disagree; however, I think he the only guy capable of winning the Giro barring Bernal's back flaring up/crash/etc. As I mentioned before it's extremely unlikely, but Remco has put in long breakaway efforts in the past. The complication is that Bernal will have Ganna to pace against these types of attacks.

Unless Remco is hell bent on limiting further losses to give him a shot at the podium, what's the to be lost if he attacks? He loses 10-15 minutes if he fails.

If he attacks when Bernal still has Ganna, it's a doomed operation. Not only because he would gain little time vs Ganna, but because he would have started his attack way too soon and would waste way too much energy. If he wants to attack, he has to do it when the other favorites are also isolated, deeper into the final of a stage, when Ganna & Moscon have long been dropped.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

If he attacks when Bernal still has Ganna, it's a doomed operation. Not only because he would gain little time vs Ganna, but because he would have started his attack way too soon and would waste way too much energy. If he wants to attack, he has to do it when the other favorites are also isolated, deeper into the final of a stage, when Ganna & Moscon have long been dropped.

Absolutely, there will be more than a few occasions where Ganna will be off the pace in 12-20 starting with tomorrow.

And of course Bernal will have opportunities to distance Remco on the steeper climbs.

12,14,16,17, 19,20 are the opportunities for each.

 

[Big Doopie]

I think the discussion about the final TT is a little silly.

first he has to stop losing more time.

then he has to attack. But nothing indicates he has the form to do that.

there is a reason riders start prepping a GT in December.

I could see him leak a whole bunch of time even tomorrow. And we haven’t even gotten to the high mountains. It all depends on how he recovers. Of course I hope that he can attack even tomorrow and take time, but that’s hugely unlikely. Got to hope first that he can hang with the best at least. And if he doesn’t, I think they should consider pulling him.There’s a reason why riders do weeklong races in preparation, so their bodies can recover and get stronger each time. They should consider stopping him, and letting his body recover so he can come back stronger.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think the discussion about the final TT is a little silly.

first he has to stop losing more time.

then he has to attack. But nothing indicates he has the form to do that.

there is a reason riders start prepping a GT in December.

I could see him leak a whole bunch of time even tomorrow. And we haven’t even gotten to the high mountains. It all depends on how he recovers. Of course I hope that he can attack even tomorrow and take time, but that’s hugely unlikely. Got to hope first that he can hang with the best at least. And if he doesn’t, I think they should consider pulling him.There’s a reason why riders do weeklong races in preparation, so their bodies can recover and get stronger each time. They should consider stopping him, and letting his body recover so he can come back stronger.

Today's stage could very well be an omen of worse to come. But it doesn't have to be. If he really were done, he likely wouldn't have been able to limit his losses to merely 2 minutes, from 20k from the finish, to a ferocious Bernal. If he really hit his limit due to his short prep/training, then he wouldn't have lost 2 minutes, he would have lost 10 or 20 minutes. Like i already said, he had to dig a lot deeper today than his rivals in the first group due to bad bikehandling and making up for that, which is why he ran out of energy and had to reach the finish in battery saving mode. In that case, he lost time due to the nature of the stage, not due to bad or declining form.

Absolutely, there will be more than a few occasions where Ganna will be off the pace in 12-20 starting with tomorrow.

And of course Bernal will have opportunities to distance Remco on the steeper climbs.

12,14,16,17, 19,20 are the opportunities for each.

It would be interesting to see a scenario unfold, where a small group of favorites is still left, including Evenepoel. Say he, Bernal and Vlasov are the only ones still standing, what would happen if Remco attacks? I could easily see the others hesitate. Bernal looking at Vlasov because Evenepoel will threaten his 2nd spot first. On the other hand Vlasov looks at Bernal, because he knows Evenepoel is also a threat for pink and Vlasov perhaps has a better ITT. And as soon as that happens, Evenepoel is gone.

Well we can dream.

 

[houtdffan]

If bike handling was the issue, seems he rode the stage as conservatively as Contador rode the cobbles in 2014. Basically, conceding time to prevent crashing.

Didn't work for Contador as he crashed out anyways

 

[jmdirt]

I'm kind of disappointed right now. Will try to post something later.

so this isn't actually something?

 

[frisenfruitig]

You guys are very optimistic. whenever the race gets harder Remco loses time and you still think that he will overcome the difference in the TT. It's not logic to think like that. The most likely scenario is that Remco will continue to lose time, The big mountains are still ahead and I can't think of a scenario where Remco doesn't lose even more time. He is very tired and not in a good shape to face the competition and that's just natural.

It would have been fine if he just lost some seconds at the end like before, but yeah, he looked knackered yesterday. And while I'd love to believe it, I don't think we can blame his poor technique for it. Sure, it didn't help, but the difference between the way Bernal dropped everyone looking impressive af whilst Evenepoel seemed empty was very striking. Still, he's young and not a normal guy so perhaps he can recover somewhat.

Not sure if it's realistic to expect something like that with his preparation though.

 

[Jagartrott]

James Knox says it was bike handling

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395114073533173763

View: https://twitter.com/cycling_podcast/status/1395114073533173763?s=20

I think that was the main cause indeed. It will have cost him a lot of energy, mentally and physically. If you don't feel comfortable, have just recovered from a horrific crash, and lack some skills, this sort of stuff drains you.

It cannot have been the legs only. Look at those final 5 km: the Bernal group is 2 m (a bit more even) ahead of Evenepoel. Between then and the finish, Evenepoel actually takes back time on everyone bar Bernal and Buchmann. That's really not possible if you're on a bad day.

 

[BigCoward]

At the same time I'm expecting Bernal to do exceptionally well in final TT due to the extra motivation kick he gets if his Giro victory is gonna be decided in that TT. Psychological aspect is really crucial in TTs.

It certainly helped Roglic.

 

[frisenfruitig]

I think that was the main cause indeed. It will have cost him a lot of energy, mentally and physically. If you don't feel comfortable, have just recovered from a horrific crash, and lack some skills, this sort of stuff drains you.

It cannot have been the legs only. Look at those final 5 km: the Bernal group is 2 m (a bit more even) ahead of Evenepoel. Between then and the finish, Evenepoel actually takes back time on everyone bar Bernal and Buchmann. That's really not possible if you're on a bad day.

Well you convinced me, Evenepoel is going to win this thing.

 

[Volderke]

Well you convinced me, Evenepoel is going to win this thing.

I strongly suggest you wear this T-shirt from now on in order to convince your fellow citizens as well!

 

[Netserk]

Ramco? This was Bambi on gravel, and I can’t believe I was the only one finding it absolutely hilarious to see.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

The furthest he's gone into a race and after yesterdays efforts, how do you think he will cope today? Follow wheel? go on the offensive? Obviously it will depend on how he feels, but does he need to gain any time back soon or hope Bernal has a wobbly?

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Ramco? This was Bambi on gravel, and I can’t believe I was the only one finding it absolutely hilarious to see.

Spot on! I seriously think I could have looked better on that surface. I would have been about 70 miles behind like but would have looked so much better.

 

[limak_]

It certainly helped Roglic.

It was just the exception that proves the rule!

 

[spalco]

The furthest he's gone into a race and after yesterdays efforts, how do you think he will cope today? Follow wheel? go on the offensive? Obviously it will depend on how he feels, but does he need to gain any time back soon or hope Bernal has a wobbly?

I don't think he has to.

But it all depends on whether he even can. Obviously tactics are irrelevant when you're empty. If this was a one-off problem with the gravel roads and he has GT-winner level recovery to be back in form, then following Ineos today would be just fine imo.

Theoretically there's more than enough road left until Milan to challenge Bernal. Today I think, depending on how the race goes, even if Ramco feels fantastic, it'll be too difficult to isolate Bernal to do any crazy stunts or drop (heh) him on the final climb.

 

[Jagartrott]

If Bernal keeps up his current level, there's no realistic chance of taking back time in the mountains. But does Bernal's back hold? (I hope so for him)

 

[Volderke]

If Remco wants to beat Bernal, his only chance is to give him a friendly pat on the back (REALLY HARD).