With this tailor-made course, a startlist lacking in quality and a unimpeded preparation it seems clear that Remco is the big favourite for this years Vuelta. If Roglic isn't there it's not even close.
A lot can happen in three weeks that you can't control and it's his first real swing at a 3 week GC but that doesn't take away from his role as the overwhelming favourite.
Ineos has a number of riders that can do very well but you just don't see that level of climbing that Remco has shown from Carapaz or Sivakov. Rodriguez and hayer are wildcards that could do a decent GC but not a Top 5 imo. Jumbo-Visma probably don't even list a GC threat and even if Roglic starts it seems hard to image him being in shape. Almeida will do well I guess but I can't see him winning the thing given the team and his past climbing performances this year.
Besides the Top Teams only Bahrain and Bora could mount a dangerous GC run in my eyes. In the end we could at least see how the Giro Podium is delivering later in the season after the race was called as one of the weaker one's here in the forum. From all the guys they could bring as a GC rider with a Top 10 Performance in the last 1,5 years (Bilbao, Mäder, Hindley, Kelderman, Buchmann, Haig, Landa that doen't even count Higuita and Vlasov, who is on the preliminary startlist wtf) I would only count Hindley as a threat to Remco. Even if a rider like Hindley can drop him in the high mountains: there aren't enough of those stages and they are mainly just one big mountain in the end. Perfect for Remco to defend a big lead after the TTT and the ITT. Also from a murito pov not to much concerned as there won't be to much of a time loss even if he gets gapped.
So all-in-all it is a very impressive year by Remco. The only thing that's missing is the confirmation of his class in a GT which we likely have after the Vuelta with a strong result. I hope that the Vuelta will be at least a close one with many riders competing. After the Tour I could really use a more open fight for the winand the podium. But I threat for the neutral viewers that Remco could run away with it if he's smart and patient.