Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Angelo1985]

It's like some people are afraid if he reaches a very high level at climbing too, he might dominate the next decade.

 

[Angelo1985]

So according to an article in HLN, a belgian newspaper, he is not in top form yet, there is still a couple percentages that he can improve in the coming weeks.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

So according to an article in HLN, a belgian newspaper, he is not in top form yet, there is still a couple percentages that he can improve in the coming weeks.

Not being in top form means Evenepoel didn't train a lot of intensity. But that says nothing about its general shape. General form he has much too early. I don't think he'll be able to maintain that form for nearly another six weeks.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Just reading another interview in Het Nieuwsblad. The following part will be of interest to a lot of us here.

So still 63kg, but at least they are not bringing a sprinter, so some common sense has prevailed.

 

[GuntherL1]

I can't predict his performance in La Vuelta, but considering his first two weeks at last year's Giro coming right out of injury, he seems at least to be capable of getting a good GC. It was very promising that he dropped Yates in La Clasica on the type of steep climb that was too hard for him in the Basque country or in Switzerland earlier this year.

 

[BigCoward]

I hope he shows 'something' that indicates he has GC winning potential. He doesn't have to win or podium, but making it through 3 weeks, form not dropping off a cliff, performing well in back to back big mountain stages etc is needed.
He has no excuses re prep. He doesn't have to win but as he is already a super talent I don't think he gets the pass of 'he's only 22, he has years to turn into a GC rider'.

 

[Filippo_3467]

With this tailor-made course, a startlist lacking in quality and a unimpeded preparation it seems clear that Remco is the big favourite for this years Vuelta. If Roglic isn't there it's not even close.

A lot can happen in three weeks that you can't control and it's his first real swing at a 3 week GC but that doesn't take away from his role as the overwhelming favourite.

Ineos has a number of riders that can do very well but you just don't see that level of climbing that Remco has shown from Carapaz or Sivakov. Rodriguez and hayer are wildcards that could do a decent GC but not a Top 5 imo. Jumbo-Visma probably don't even list a GC threat and even if Roglic starts it seems hard to image him being in shape. Almeida will do well I guess but I can't see him winning the thing given the team and his past climbing performances this year.

Besides the Top Teams only Bahrain and Bora could mount a dangerous GC run in my eyes. In the end we could at least see how the Giro Podium is delivering later in the season after the race was called as one of the weaker one's here in the forum. From all the guys they could bring as a GC rider with a Top 10 Performance in the last 1,5 years (Bilbao, Mäder, Hindley, Kelderman, Buchmann, Haig, Landa that doen't even count Higuita and Vlasov, who is on the preliminary startlist wtf) I would only count Hindley as a threat to Remco. Even if a rider like Hindley can drop him in the high mountains: there aren't enough of those stages and they are mainly just one big mountain in the end. Perfect for Remco to defend a big lead after the TTT and the ITT. Also from a murito pov not to much concerned as there won't be to much of a time loss even if he gets gapped.

So all-in-all it is a very impressive year by Remco. The only thing that's missing is the confirmation of his class in a GT which we likely have after the Vuelta with a strong result. I hope that the Vuelta will be at least a close one with many riders competing. After the Tour I could really use a more open fight for the winand the podium. But I threat for the neutral viewers that Remco could run away with it if he's smart and patient.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Not being in top form means Evenepoel didn't train a lot of intensity. But that says nothing about its general shape. General form he has much too early. I don't think he'll be able to maintain that form for nearly another six weeks.

Maybe. You can't tell for sure considering he has a very high base form. Even when not prepared for a certain race, when too heavy, when having a bad day... he loses, what? Two minutes? Other GC riders who are off form they lose 10-20 minutes. He lost the same amount of time over 2x Carpegna as what Pogacar lost in 3km to Vingegaard. I think it's impossible to tell where exactly he's at right now. But it's indeed a possibility.

 

[spalco]

[snip]

I agree with almost everything you say, but Carapaz can climb nearly with the best, has a punch, can do a reasonable TT, and has already proven 3-week-recovery and ability to peak for GTs on several occasions. For me, he's the top-favourite, not Remco (although the betting odds say otherwise).

 

[greyclouds]

With this tailor-made course, a startlist lacking in quality and a unimpeded preparation it seems clear that Remco is the big favourite for this years Vuelta. If Roglic isn't there it's not even close.

A lot can happen in three weeks that you can't control and it's his first real swing at a 3 week GC but that doesn't take away from his role as the overwhelming favourite.

Ineos has a number of riders that can do very well but you just don't see that level of climbing that Remco has shown from Carapaz or Sivakov. Rodriguez and hayer are wildcards that could do a decent GC but not a Top 5 imo. Jumbo-Visma probably don't even list a GC threat and even if Roglic starts it seems hard to image him being in shape. Almeida will do well I guess but I can't see him winning the thing given the team and his past climbing performances this year.

Besides the Top Teams only Bahrain and Bora could mount a dangerous GC run in my eyes. In the end we could at least see how the Giro Podium is delivering later in the season after the race was called as one of the weaker one's here in the forum. From all the guys they could bring as a GC rider with a Top 10 Performance in the last 1,5 years (Bilbao, Mäder, Hindley, Kelderman, Buchmann, Haig, Landa that doen't even count Higuita and Vlasov, who is on the preliminary startlist wtf) I would only count Hindley as a threat to Remco. Even if a rider like Hindley can drop him in the high mountains: there aren't enough of those stages and they are mainly just one big mountain in the end. Perfect for Remco to defend a big lead after the TTT and the ITT. Also from a murito pov not to much concerned as there won't be to much of a time loss even if he gets gapped.

So all-in-all it is a very impressive year by Remco. The only thing that's missing is the confirmation of his class in a GT which we likely have after the Vuelta with a strong result. I hope that the Vuelta will be at least a close one with many riders competing. After the Tour I could really use a more open fight for the winand the podium. But I threat for the neutral viewers that Remco could run away with it if he's smart and patient.

He is one of the top favourites, but you can't call him the big favourite when he never even finished a GT or won a top week-long stage race.

Looking at the current startlist, and not considering Roglic, I would say that on the paper Vlasov and Carapaz are the two big favourites. I would consider Remco and Higuita two dark horses, and no one should be surprised if they win or podium the GC. Almeida, Landa, O'Connor, Haig, Hindley, Yates, Quintana and Mas, all absolute unknowns for various reasons - any of them can fight for the win, but it's not possible to tell what will be their level. The reasons that I put Carapaz and Vlasov above everyone it's because they are proven GT riders, with more than one top result, Vlasov is coming from illness but steadily improving his level at the TdF.

 

[kingjr]

It's like some people are afraid if he reaches a very high level at climbing too, he might dominate the next decade.

I wouldn't worry about that. Too many other exceptional riders around at the moment.

And others coming up, too, like Ayuso, Uijtdebroeks. Though it's early days yet for them, of course.

 

[Põhja Konn]

I hope he shows 'something' that indicates he has GC winning potential. He doesn't have to win or podium, but making it through 3 weeks, form not dropping off a cliff, performing well in back to back big mountain stages etc is needed.
He has no excuses re prep. He doesn't have to win but as he is already a super talent I don't think he gets the pass of 'he's only 22, he has years to turn into a GC rider'.

I think his general level is such that if he has the recovery ability needed for a GT, the podium is a bare minimum.. There are question marks about the real big mountains, but if the day to day recovery is there, he should at least be able to defend himself there if not more. Given how the Vuelta field is often more stellar names- rather than formwise with most contenders having it as a second GT of their season, then Remco instead having it as his only GT and biggest goal of the season should give an addiotional advantage to him.

Hopefully nothing untoward happens and he can finally do a full GT as good he's currently able to. He's been around long enough and proven to be among the very best in other aspects of the sport, so if he does have the knack for three-week racing it's about time for a breakthrough performance.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think his general level is such that if he has the recovery ability needed for a GT, the podium is a bare minimum.. There are question marks about the real big mountains, but if the day to day recovery is there, he should at least be able to defend himself there if not more. Given how the Vuelta field is often more stellar names- rather than formwise with most contenders having it as a second GT of their season, then Remco instead having it as his only GT and biggest goal of the season should give an addiotional advantage to him.

Hopefully nothing untoward happens and he can finally do a full GT as good he's currently able to. He's been around long enough and proven to be among the very best in other aspects of the sport, so if he does have the knack for three-week racing it's about time for a breakthrough performance.

This is basically what i meant earlier. If he's able to reach the podium, that means he won't have any off-days, and if that's the case, i could see him winning it just as well. There are an ITT and TTT where he can take enough time out of rivals to give him a bit of a buffer. There are also some stages suited for a raid in case it's needed.

If he does have one or more off-days, he could just as easily drop out of the top 10-15.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Maybe. You can't tell for sure considering he has a very high base form. Even when not prepared for a certain race, when too heavy, when having a bad day... he loses, what? Two minutes? Other GC riders who are off form they lose 10-20 minutes. He lost the same amount of time over 2x Carpegna as what Pogacar lost in 3km to Vingegaard. I think it's impossible to tell where exactly he's at right now. But it's indeed a possibility.

No doubt his general form is very high. We noticed that in the Classica. So two weeks early with a view to the Vuelta. He does not yet have his specific form, for the accelerations and tempo changes. He will have that at the start of the Vuelta. But that will not help him if the general form decreases during the second half of the Vuelta. That's pure science. It's strange that they don't have that knowledge at Quickstep.
The only thing I don't know or can calculate is how quickly the form will decrease during the second half of the Vuelta.
I think Evenepoel will perform until the finish on the Pico del Jano. Hopefully Evenepoel can survive until the ninth stage, with arrival at the very steep Les Praeres de Nava. Even if that's going to be hard. After the rest day, the time trial will follow, where Evenepoel will still perform. Afterwards, it will be very difficult for Evenepoel, taking into account the mountain stages that are still to come.

 

[Flurk1982]

No doubt his general form is very high. We noticed that in the Classica. So two weeks early with a view to the Vuelta. He does not yet have his specific form, for the accelerations and tempo changes. He will have that at the start of the Vuelta. But that will not help him if the general form decreases during the second half of the Vuelta. That's pure science. It's strange that they don't have that knowledge at Quickstep.
The only thing I don't know or can calculate is how quickly the form will decrease during the second half of the Vuelta.
I think Evenepoel will perform until the finish on the Pico del Jano. Hopefully Evenepoel can survive until the ninth stage, with arrival at the very steep Les Praeres de Nava. Even if that's going to be hard. After the rest day, the time trial will follow, where Evenepoel will still perform. Afterwards, it will be very difficult for Evenepoel, taking into account the mountain stages that are still to come.

Not sure about this. Vingo & Wva were beginning June @ dauphine also already very good. Then they did an extra altitude camp in Tignes for extra %s before start TdF. I think this is what QS is trying to do here also.

 

[spalco]

Not sure about this. Vingo & Wva were beginning June @ dauphine also already very good. Then they did an extra altitude camp in Tignes for extra %s before start TdF. I think this is what QS is trying to do here also.

Yeah, I don't really follow Zoef-Lightning on this either, being close to top form 3-4 weeks before the Tour de France seems pretty standard. Not everyone goes for that pre-peak, but many do.

Training science is really complicated, people study things like that for years and decades, I don't think we as outsiders can draw conclusions like that, except maybe in hindsight.

 

[Andre]

I'm wondering if the TTT will favour Quickstep or Ineos. If Quickstep can get a victory then Remco will already be in top position. Then Quickstep can continue their support for Remco and increase his lead here and there on stages 4 and 5. Ineos will be going all in for Carapaz I suppose. Stages 8 and 9 I believe Remco will do just fine. Then after the rest day comes the 31 kilometer TT where he can really hurt Carapaz and increase his lead. Stages 14 and 15 Ineos will have to get on the offense; Carapaz will probably get some time back, but maybe not enough. Stages 16 and 17 Remco (if still in good form) can pick up some more time on the Ecuadorian if he feels he needs it. Stage 18 and 20 could favour Carapaz a bit, but there's always stage 19 where Remco can again attack. Anyway this is just my prediction. Remco for the victory of La Vuelta 2022.

 

[Filippo_3467]

The TTT hurts Remco probably even if Quickstep wins. Would that be an ITT he would smoke everyone (if Roglic doesn't start). So Ineos should be good enough to come close, also Bora should get closer as they would in an ITT. I'm not sure about Almeida and UAE as he is the best TTer that goes for GC besides Remco.

In the grand scheme ofthings Idon't think it will matter that much. Would. be surprised if Remco doesn't lead the GC bunch going in stage 14.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm wondering if the TTT will favour Quickstep or Ineos.

Who is Ineos bringing that they would be remotely close to Quickstep? Ganna and Thomas aren't going to La Vuelta, and they would need to field their absolute best rouleurs they have left in the squad to limit the losses, which they can't as they also need to bring their climbers. De Plus is decent, Hart is mediocre. Kwiat has been taken off the startlist, doubt Van Baarle will be going. So against Evenepoel, Van Wilder and Cavagna, plus Masnada who is probably better than 5 of the guys Ineos is going to field and likely someone like Steimle or Cerny as well, i can't see this turning in favor of Ineos at all.

Appears Van Baarle is going, and while he is a decent TT'er/rouleur, he isn't of the caliber needed to upset Quickstep. The only one on the startlist that comes remotely close to Evenepoel is Hayter, and he is more of the level of Cavagna and Van Wilder. And he's by far the best TT'er currently in their line-up. Rodriguez is also decent, but not on that level.

 

[yaco]

Team Time Trial results are often made up of the sum of it's parts as opposed to having strong individual riders - Of course if you had a TTT at the TDF, then Jumbo could do serious damage with their roster of riders BUT i doubt this will be the case in the Vuelta.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Team Time Trial results are often made up of the sum of it's parts as opposed to having strong individual riders - Of course if you had a TTT at the TDF, then Jumbo could do serious damage with their roster of riders BUT i doubt this will be the case in the Vuelta.

Doesn't really matter in this case. It's still going to be QuickStep by a mile imho. All their GC guys/climbers are good/great TTers and their workers are great rouleurs.

 

[Big Doopie]

Team Time Trial results are often made up of the sum of it's parts as opposed to having strong individual riders - Of course if you had a TTT at the TDF, then Jumbo could do serious damage with their roster of riders BUT i doubt this will be the case in the Vuelta.

i agree here. i can't really understand why so many people are treating the TTT as this huge bonus for Remco. And experts keep talking about that there is so much TT in the vuelta. as far as i can see there is one 31 km ITT that could benefit Remco. The TTT is not at all the same as Remco on his own. and he better reign in his impetuousness and take long sustained pulls as opposed to riding everyone off his wheel. i am really not seeing how the TTT is even close to as favorable as an ITT. The pure climbers on other teams can hide their weaknesses.

hope i am wrong, but i also do not understand people treating the TTT as if it is a QS fait accompli...and that there could be big differences in Remco's favor as well.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

We'll see. I simply can't see a team that is going to be need to be pulled by Hayter and Van Baarle to be close to QS, let alone beat them. Unless they crash or something, which could happen in a regular TT as well.

EDIT: Steimle is out for La Vuelta with a likely collarbone fracture after today's crash in Burgos. So he won't be part of the train.

 

[Andre]

Logic is your friend has a good point: Ineos does not look too strong. In my opinion it's how big a time gap there will be between QS and Ineos. Since Carapaz is the main threat to Remco. Carapaz could find himself pretty far down after the TTT

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Logic is your friend has a good point: Ineos does not look too strong. In my opinion it's how big a time gap there will be between QS and Ineos. Since Carapaz is the main threat to Remco. Carapaz could find himself pretty far down after the TTT

The main problem for Ineos is that their GC guys (Carapaz and Hart) are the weak links. That means they will have to adapt to them as they can't leave them. At Quick-Step, even if guys like Cavagna, Cerny go all out, there is no risk of dropping Evenepoel. They could even bury themselves and drop the final 5-10k and let Evenepoel, Van Wilder, Alaphilippe and Masnada take it to the line.