Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[peterfin]

I don't think it should be a hot take that in absolute terms, Evenepoel is probably better at shorter climbs, judging by the fact that he could compete on those even in lesser form and the fact that he dropped Mas on Les Praeres.

Also claiming he dominated everyone on what was there is a lolstretch.

He may be better at short climbs but there is no reason to believe he is worse than his competitors at long climbs. The Vuelta didn't give us any indication that this is the case. So a claim that he would lose a lot of time to Pogacar or Vingegaard is just an opinion, not a factual statement.

 

[Red Rick]

He may be better at short climbs but there is no reason to believe he is worse than his competitors at long climbs. The Vuelta didn't give us any indication that this is the case. So a claim that he would lose a lot of time to Pogacar or Vingegaard is just an opinion, not a factual statement.

I definitely think Vingegaard and Pogacar would be net losers on mountain stages to Mas in the Vuelta.

 

[Andy schleck]

He may be better at short climbs but there is no reason to believe he is worse than his competitors at long climbs. The Vuelta didn't give us any indication that this is the case. So a claim that he would lose a lot of time to Pogacar or Vingegaard is just an opinion, not a factual statement.

It's a factual statement. He rarely dropped Mas on that type of climbs, and when we look at Mas level at the tour in the past years, we see that he is in a lower level comparing with the best.

 

[Big Doopie]

I don't think it should be a hot take that in absolute terms, Evenepoel is probably better at shorter climbs, judging by the fact that he could compete on those even in lesser form and the fact that he dropped Mas on Les Praeres.

Also claiming he dominated everyone on what was there is a lolstretch.

dropping Rog (one of the greatest riders of this era) by a minute in 2 1/2 kms of 14-24% is kind of the definition of “dominating”.

riding all but Mas off his wheel and gaping them by 1 1/2 minutes over 6kms on an 8% climb is another definition of “dominating”.

Remco utterly, yes, dominated the first 10 days of the Vuelta.

the debate centers around his apparent weakness in the second week which just happened to be while recovering from a crash. Without the crash, one can just as easily wonder if the domination would have simply continued. The way he then easily controlled the third week (winning an MTF) would appear to support that particular narrative.

 

[peterfin]

It's a factual statement. He rarely dropped Mas on that type of climbs, and when we look at Mas level at the tour in the past years, we see that he is in a lower level comparing with the best.

Mas was much better in the Vuelta than the tour and Remco had a weekend where he was clearly constrained by injuries. No, saying that he would lose minutes makes no sense. I am not saying he can't but I see no evidence he would.

 

[Andy schleck]

Mas was much better in the Vuelta than the tour and Remco had a weekend where he was clearly constrained by injuries. No, saying that he would lose minutes makes no sense. I am not saying he can't but I see no evidence he would.

I'm talking about Mas level in tour 2021.

 

[Big Doopie]

It's a factual statement. He rarely dropped Mas on that type of climbs, and when we look at Mas level at the tour in the past years, we see that he is in a lower level comparing with the best.

right. And Mas was clearly no better than normal this Vuelta. Because he always drops Rog, Yates, and Lopez on every mountain stage in the past.

to compare everything to the one rider who clearly outperformed his own history and make that the base that did not move, is disingenuous at best.

 

[Red Rick]

dropping Rog (one of the greatest riders of this era) by a minute in 2 1/2 kms of 14-24% is kind of the definition of “dominating”.

riding all but Mas off his wheel and gaping them by 1 1/2 minutes over 6kms on an 8% climb is another definition of “dominating”.

Remco utterly, yes, dominated the first 10 days of the Vuelta.

the debate centers around his apparent weakness in the second week which just happened to be while recovering from a crash. Without the crash, one can just as easily wonder if the domination would have simply continued. The way he then easily controlled the third week (winning an MTF) would appear to support that particular narrative.

I see that we are back to Roglic drops > no excuses and Remco drops >> excuses.

Thread confirmed hasn't changed.

 

[peterfin]

I'm talking about Mas level in tour 2021.

Ok but I don't see why this is relevant here. His level in this Vuelta was definitely great just looking at the w/kg he was able to ride. Without Evenepoel, Mas had a good shot at winning this Vuelta, also without Roglic's crash.

 

[Big Doopie]

I see that we are back to Roglic drops > no excuses and Remco drops >> excuses.

Thread confirmed hasn't changed.

lol.

not just Rog.

he crushed all GC opposition precisely on the super steep gradients that you and others said he would taste humiliating defeat.

other than Mas, he crushed all GC opposition on an 8% gradient MTF.

and then to cap off the first half of the Vuelta he crushed all GC opposition in a short ITT by larger amounts than anyone really expected.

in other words he had beaten all GC opposition on every type of GC stage.

he utterly dominated the first half of the Vuelta.

the only question at that point was whether he could last three weeks and do high altitude. Totally fair because it was unknown. His crash only exacerbated those concerns. But he defended well enough on Sierra Nevada despite his injuries and once he got to the last rest day and also had an easy day during the sprint stage that followed he had once again recovered to control (rather easily as it turned out) the third week.

look how Rodriguez lost 3-4 places after his crash.

if Rog had stayed in after his, no doubt he too would have lost time.

and the numbers don’t lie.

now I have said many times that going into the TDF he would be an underdog to Vingo and Pog. Because, I agree the successive high altitude climbs of the TDF (and Remco’s weak team) are truly unknowns.

but to say that he would fail on those like it’s a fact with literally nothing to back it up is disingenuous.

 

[Oldermanish]

Not sure I TOTALLY follow. If you follow Remco and can put out similar watts, great, but if you can't match the numbers, you can't follow. His attacks in week 1 weren't particularly tactical, it was just a matter of who could match the watts. He dropped people not by hard attacks, but by simply ratcheting up the numbers and seeing who could hang on. Also, I'm not as sure what "his terrain" really is, as he won on the steepest climb as well as more shallow ones. Seems to me when he's on form, uphill is his terrain, regardless of the gradient.

We're more less saying the same thing. To your point in week 1 he seemed to ride well within himself. If Remco is in a comfort zone and others are taxed just following him they will eventually crack. The other teams needed to ally and begin attacking early maybe even helping Roglic to some degree. They didn't seem jointly aggressive but held out for Remco to fail...he didn't. Waiting for the 3rd week didn't help their cause and many teams lost support due to Covid and crashes in week 2.

 

[bNator]

lol.

not just Rog.

he crushed all GC opposition precisely on the super steep gradients that you and others said he would taste humiliating defeat.

other than Mas, he crushed all GC opposition on an 8% gradient MTF.

and then to cap off the first half of the Vuelta he crushed all GC opposition in a short ITT by larger amounts than anyone really expected.

in other words he had beaten all GC opposition on every type of GC stage.

he utterly dominated the first half of the Vuelta.

the only question at that point was whether he could last three weeks and do high altitude. Totally fair because it was unknown. His crash only exacerbated those concerns. But he defended well enough on Sierra Nevada despite his injuries and once he got to the last rest day and also had an easy day during the sprint stage that followed he had once again recovered to control (rather easily as it turned out) the third week.

look how Rodriguez lost 3-4 places after his crash.

if Rog had stayed in after his, no doubt he too would have lost time.

and the numbers don’t lie.

now I have said many times that going into the TDF he would be an underdog to Vingo and Pog. Because, I agree the successive high altitude climbs of the TDF (and Remco’s weak team) are truly unknowns.

but to say that he would fail on those like it’s a fact with literally nothing to back it up is disingenuous.

Does he do anything else besides crushing and dominating?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Regarding his attacks, he said they may not look like they are as crushing as when other riders attack out of the saddle, but he said that is his style, because he just accelerates in the saddle. He said he would also be pushing 700-800 watts during such an acceleration.

source: https://sporza.be/nl/2022/09/11/pod...o-en-tandpasta-tegen-de-stress~1662895470641/

 

[Extinction]

I'm talking about Mas level in tour 2021.

What's that got to do with his Vuelta level in 2022? Take the case of Gilberto Simoni, in the early 2000s he dominated a couple of Giros, but was nowhere in the Tour. And even if he had prepared exlusively for the Tour he would still have been far off the podium. Why? Because the Tour is another level. Yet, by some strange mystery of cycling, had say peak Armstrong or Ullrich went all in for a Giro (possibly as a first step to the Giro-Tour double), they still would have had their hands full against a Simoni in the two Giro's he won. Why? Because some great GT riders shine at the Giro or the Vuelta (like Heras), but can't handle the Tour nearly as well. Rare it is, as I said, that a Tour champion can't be very competatitive at the Giro and the Vuelta, if not win them. But it is rare for a rider who only shines at the Giro or Vuelta to do so also at the Tour (Cunego, di Luca and Menchov are other examples). This is why Remco's biggest rival in Mas at this year's Vuelta isn't necessarily an indication that he would be way inferior to Pog and Vingo at the Tour. For this Mas would have been a worthy opponent to Pog and Vingo, had they competed in this Vuelta.

 

[red_flanders]

I see that we are back to Roglic drops > no excuses and Remco drops >> excuses.

Thread confirmed hasn't changed.

Plenty of excuses when Roglič crashes into people.

 

[Riek s]

This is Mas estimated power output over the years including the first two heavy stages from the Vuelta. Seems to be on the higher end for him.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

This is Mas estimated power output over the years including the first two heavy stages from the Vuelta. Seems to be on the higher end for him.

To me, this graph actually indicates he performed consistently with previous levels.

 

[Andy schleck]

This is Mas estimated power output over the years including the first two heavy stages from the Vuelta. Seems to be on the higher end for him.

I suggest you put data from ammattipyoraily. Naichaca always overestimate the data.

 

[Bonimenier]

I suggest you put data from ammattipyoraily. Naichaca always overestimate the data.

If he always overestimates, the comparison between different data stays intact though.

 

[gze]

Maybe it's my fault, i'm not being very clear, but i'm not saying he wouldn't handle that type of Tdf mountain stages. He would be fine, but still lose many time to vingegaard and pogacar, like thomas or quintana lost.

Let's take granon. How do you think remco would lose to vingegaard? How do you think he would lose to vingegaard in hautacam?

I believe remco would have done third at the tour, but not so close of the other two.

I'm not doubting about remco's level, but ain't still enough to fight them. But if he keeps improving, and i believe he will, we could see in the future a great fight him, vingegaard, pogacar, and let me put another name: ayuso.

It is very difficult to "objectively" compare the individual rider’s performances of Vingegaard’s tour win and Remco’s Vuelta win.
The boundary conditions are totally different:
-The level in the tour de France is much higher than that of the Vuelta.
-Jumbo GT team is of a much higher level than Quickstep’s GT team:
On the one hand, while defending the red jersey, Remco was isolated in more than a handful of demanding finals (=physically and mentally draining).
On the other hand Vingegaard could chill out in Van Aert’s back pocket for a big part of the stages and in other stages he was e.g. catapulted towards the top of the Granon by a Roglic, Van Aert two stage missile (epic Team Jumbo performance).

The best I can come up with to objectify this, is with the following thought experiment.
Rewind the Vuelta until the start of the “Elche - Alicante time trial” and, in the Quick-step team, replace Remco with Vingegaard…
Press play and see who will win this Vuelta.

I’m not sure I would rate Vingegaard’s chances to win this Vuelta as high as Remco’s.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

It is very difficult to "objectively" compare the individual rider’s performances of Vingegaard’s tour win and Remco’s Vuelta win.
The boundary conditions are totally different:
-The level in the tour de France is much higher than that of the Vuelta.
-Jumbo GT team is of a much higher level than Quickstep’s GT team:
On the one hand, while defending the red jersey, Remco was isolated in more than a handful of demanding finals (=physically and mentally draining).
On the other hand Vingegaard could chill out in Van Aert’s back pocket for a big part of the stages and in other stages he was e.g. catapulted towards the top of the Granon by a Roglic, Van Aert two stage missile (epic Team Jumbo performance).

The best I can come up with to objectify this, is with the following thought experiment.
Rewind the Vuelta until the start of the “Elche - Alicante time trial” and, in the Quick-step team, replace Remco with Vingegaard…
Press play and see who will win this Vuelta.

I’m not sure I would rate Vingegaard’s chances to win this Vuelta as high as Remco’s.

All of this just to make a completely subjective assessment without any evidence? I’ll go too: I think Vingegaard from the Tour would have destroyed this Vuelta if swapped in for Remco.

 

[Extinction]

All of this just to make a completely subjective assessment without any evidence? I’ll go too: I think Vingegaard from the Tour would have destroyed this Vuelta if swapped in for Remco.

But you have to consider the slot, team strength etc. You discount the fact that at the Tour everything is at its highest. No way we see the same Vingegaard at the Tour at the Vuelta, with the same team, in the same condition. Not happening and I'll venture to say won't happen again either.

 

[steffr222]

A two weeks break after la Vuelta and Remco would have won that ITT by some margin

edit; no negative intention by me towards Foss - brilliant ride and well deserved victory of course

 

[Red Rick]

A two weeks break after la Vuelta and Remco would have won that ITT by some margin

Can't win this TT by a huge margin cornering like Evenepoel did.

And a 2nd week just may make form taper off even more.

In the Olympics, the ITT is after the road race, and at the Olympics, the Tour de France riders all sucked at the ITT while doing well while dominating the road race.

In top form he does win this, but then this is without Van Aert, and Ganna throwing a big stinker.

 

[sir fly]

A two weeks break after la Vuelta and Remco would have won that ITT by some margin

edit; no negative intention by me towards Foss - brilliant ride and well deserved victory of course

It's fine the way it is.
I'm looking at it as the fourth week of the same endeavour... confirmation of capacity.