Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Ulle97]

Here's my two cents......

Provided Remco is not suffering lingering ill-effects from the Covid, I believe he can win the Tour.

Yes, it's a bit of a stretch from what many are saying here who feel he should go for the experience and stage wins etc....

But Remco is a serial winner and has that mentality. If he races like he can, he can realistically have the maillot jaune after the Basque stages.
The Pyrenees are not that daunting. A long descent finish on the first stage and then a 5% gradient up to Cauterets.

I think he'd ace the climb up Puy de Dome like he did on Les Praeres in the Vuelta with similar gradients........ that realistically takes him into the Alps in a great position.

I understand that this is a simplified view, that doesn't take into account the likelihood of crashes, splits in crosswinds, team dynamics etc....... but the man should be thrust into the Basque starting line and show his talent to the world on the greatest stage of all.

It's what we all want to see..... fanboys and haters alike!!!

 

[Big Doopie]

The two things that don't make sense to me about your position are:

1. You say the others will be in top share, unlike Remco, but then you point that, wait, actually Remco will have had prep at least as good as Pogacar, one of the two that most see as a viable winner. So it's just Vingegaard.
2. Why are you so adamant that he will be an outsider for the 3rd podium spot? Many, many, many GTs have been won by people with less than optimal prep, including Roglic in this Giro and in his 3 Vueltas. All it takes is one crash for Vingegaard and they're on equal footing. If he's as good as you think he is, he definitely has a shot at a win.

See point 2 above. Why is it you are so adamant about this completely ruining Remco's condition while also asking us to believe that Roglic crashing out of last year's Tour, breaking vertebrae, and racing with a messed up shoulder that required surgery during the off season had no impact on his condition during the last Vuelta. Unbelievable double standards.

A. I don't see many people advocating for Remco to race, drop time, and hunt stages. Most people just think he should ride the Tour. I am personally fine with him saying he's targeting another Vuelta instead and going for that instead. But many of us don't understand why so many professional races go for it no matter what - poor prep, crashes, injuries, etc. - but for some reason Remco and team are, like, well he got Covid during the Giro, GT season is over.

B. I do think it is very clear that some of us come from GT-centric world views and some from classic-centric world views, which could explain some discrepancies. For me, he is a top contender for either the Tour or the Vuelta, regardless of a little Covid (unless he is having ongoing issues I have not heard about) and should prioritize the Tour if he think he thinks he can be close to peak form or the Vuelta if he does not.

A. Lots did.
B. What about excitement-centric? As I said, I doubt anyone would deny that his wins at LBL, San Sebastian, and Worlds last year were each more fun, more exciting, and more amazing than his Vuelta win. GTs are rarely exciting these days - see all the complaints.

 

[Big Doopie]

Contador was winning GTs despite doing that many race days

please don't talk to me about Contador. i will get banned again.

 

[Big Doopie]

Contador was also not trying to peak for 3 monuments and 2 Olympic races on top of his GT objectives…… Contador was racing to win stage races, which over the long haul is easier to control and win over multiple stages than a hectic monument or Olympic race.

bingo. that too. completely different riders with different objectives.

 

[Big Doopie]

If the starting money is so important for Don Patrick, shouldn't we start a Gofundme to get Remco in the Tour?

imho, there are 3 good reasons for having Remco in the Tour:
1. (A)The race would be so much more entertaining, and believe it or not, entertainment on the biggest cycling venue in the world is worth it.
2. All old-school cyclists (including me) would confirm that riding a GT makes you a better rider. Remco has raced exactly 1 GT until now. Racing the Tour in 2023, makes him a better rider in the years to come.
3. As Extinction said: if Remco (and with Remco, the whole of Belgium waiting for almost half a century) wants to win the Tour, (B) he will definitely increase his chances winning, by riding in 2023. So for those that don't see the value of Remco riding a Tour he probably won't win: yes, a top 5 now is worth more than 1 hour of ITT at the world's or whatever other Mickey Mouse race, as the Tour is the nec plus ultra, and winning it, even if only once, is worth more than 5 more Vueltas and 2 more Giros. His chances winning it in 2024 with a perfect preparation but without riding in 2023 are probably smaller than his chances winning it in 2024 with a 90% preparation but having experienced the Tour in 2023. So I wonder why riding it in 2023 isn't part of this 'perfect preparation'?

ps: I just want to see the kid race, and judging by his training rides on Strava, his form is quite OK.

A. How so?

1. if he is going for a top place on GC, he will ride conservatively.

2. as there are no TTs for him to get a bit of an advantage, the others will not need to attack him in the mountains.

3. And if he proves not well enough prepared, then he is unlikely to be able to make it more exciting.

Now worlds? In top shape, fully prepared. He may not win, but he will no doubt make it exciting losing (as he did Catalunya).

B. How so?

1. Riding the race for the first time ill-prepared, simply to get experience does not improve the likelihood of winning later. In fact, I would argue the opposite. Riding as many races (including other GTs) trying to win them provides the best experience (both Merckx and Hinault did that).

2. Merckx, Hinault, Fignon, Pog all won on their first try. And Merckx and Hinault were both about the age Remco will be next year - doesn't seem to have held them back.

 

[Big Doopie]

He needs to ride the Tour. Who cares about the result? Belgium? If they want a long awaited champion, with this current crop, then he needs experience. Andiamo.

um...he probably does. lol.

The best experience, as I noted in another post, is to race for the win at other races and GTs - not pedal around France as pack fodder with no solid goals but "gaining experience".

 

[peterfin]

um...he probably does. lol.

The best experience, as I noted in another post, is to race for the win at other races and GTs - not pedal around France as pack fodder with no solid goals but "gaining experience".

He has to race all-in for the win and at the same time don't care about the final result. The experience will teach him his limits at the level he is at and the specifics of racing the tour. He will learn a lot and he gives himself a chance to win it. He doesn't know the probability but if he doesn't start it's definitely zero. He basically has a punch card with maybe 6 or 7 holes in it. They represent all the tour's he can be competitive in. Does he use this one or does he limits his opportunities to the 5-6 remaining, missing also the experience to increase his chances?

 

[Andre]

We will see him in TDF next year. Patience is a virtue.

 

[Nick2413]

This whole situation feels like waiting to “break the seal.” Hopefully once he does finally make that first appearance at the Tour, there will be a lot less waiting for the stars to align from that point on.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

@Big Doopie might not want to read this.

Imagine if in 2007, Contador hadn’t ridden the Tour because he was young and unlikely to win, then in 2008 he wasn’t allowed to ride the Tour, then in 2009 with Lance on his team and not being the returning Tour winner, he defended his Giro title, then in 2010 maybe Lance would have been the returning champion so he again rides the Giro, and so on. Obviously, who knows, but the point is, Contador was way less ready than Remco in 2007, and he ended up winning 1 of his only 2 Tour wins that year. He looked like he might win 5 or 6 and ended up with 2. I would choose to go if I were him.

Unless he truly is nowhere close, has lingering Covid impacts, etc, in which case he should ride the Vuelta.

 

[Big Doopie]

@Big Doopie might not want to read this.

Imagine if in 2007, Contador hadn’t ridden the Tour because he was young and unlikely to win, then in 2008 he wasn’t allowed to ride the Tour, then in 2009 with Lance on his team and not being the returning Tour winner, he defended his Giro title, then in 2010 maybe Lance would have been the returning champion so he again rides the Giro, and so on. Obviously, who knows, but the point is, Contador was way less ready than Remco in 2007, and he ended up winning 1 of his only 2 Tour wins that year. He looked like he might win 5 or 6 and ended up with 2. I would choose to go if I were him.

Unless he truly is nowhere close, has lingering Covid impacts, etc, in which case he should ride the Vuelta.

Tx for the warning!!

(That’s why I put a laughing emoji)

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

I'm not convinced doing the Tour would be that good of an idea. I understand the carpe diem argument, but kid's 23, not 30, and the plan is to make his debut there next season anyway.

On one hand, there's gaining experience at riding the Tour specifically (which I'm not convinced is that much more valuable than the experience he gains riding the other GTs) and probably not much more, considering that current Remco even at his best doesn't likely stay with July Vingo, or crippled Pog for that matter, on the biggest climbs. There is also no TT to offset that.

On the other hand, there's a potential World title or two and a Lombardia (a race I'm sure he'd love to exorcise), plus whatever comes his way at the Vuelta, which is in all likelihood a podium and a handful of stages, if not the overall win. The more of these races he wins now, the less he's gonna have to worry in the next years to be in top shape at the end of the season, which should allow him to focus nicely on a spring Classics + Tour schedule.

 

[dobrien]

I'm not convinced doing the Tour would be that good of an idea. I understand the carpe diem argument, but kid's 23, not 30, and the plan is to make his debut there next season anyway.

On one hand, there's gaining experience at riding the Tour specifically (which I'm not convinced is that much more valuable than the experience he gains riding the other GTs) and probably not much more, considering that current Remco even at his best doesn't likely stay with July Vingo, or crippled Pog for that matter, on the biggest climbs. There is also no TT to offset that.

On the other hand, there's a potential World title or two and a Lombardia (a race I'm sure he'd love to exorcise), plus whatever comes his way at the Vuelta, which is in all likelihood a podium and a handful of stages, if not the overall win. The more of these races he wins now, the less he's gonna have to worry in the next years to be in top shape at the end of the season, which should allow him to focus nicely on a spring Classics + Tour schedule.

This post states what I'm thinking very succinctly. As cool as it would be to see him in the Tour the fact is the above seems to me the best way, with the caveat he HAS to ride La Vuelta, no skipping that as well. Most important thing to me is not so much that he has to win, but that he has to get that GT in his legs; he just can't go from last years Vuelta all the way to next years Tour without that, imho.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Meow. I'm not sure how to respond to this quote in parts, so I'll just do the bolded from top down.

1. If I misremembered some posts by some of your peers as being from you, I apologize. I remember there were many that argued that because Roglic got second on the first Vuelta ITT, a minute back from Remco, he was clearly in top form. I thought you were one of them, but my mistake if I was incorrect. I also thought you were one who thought that his crash in this Giro couldn't be an explanation for barely beating G, but, again, I sometimes get some posts mixed up between you and a select few others. Not intentional, I assure you. I am not going to read through your thousands of posts for examples, though, so I will decline the ask.
2. Please spare us all. I will also point out that Frome and Dumoulin did the Giro-Tour double and did OK. Contador and Quintana made some decent attempts as well. There's no reason he can't be close to peak form for the Tour. And as others are saying, Vingegaard could crash, get Covid, simply not reach previous heights, have a stomach bug, mist time in a split, etc. etc.
3. No, must have written that poorly. You said that Remco's form wouldn't be as good as the other top contenders, and then conceded that, Oh, well except for maybe Pogacar's. That is a big exception. Pogacar is still racing the Tour despite having terrible prep. Always tough to know, but if I had to pick, I'd rather have dropped out of the Giro after 9 days with Covid that only took me out of 5 days of training than have taken a month or two off the bike due to a broken wrist.
4. If you think that Remco can't recover from a mild Covid case (a severe Covid case would have prevented him from completing that ITT, not just knocked a few seconds off of his time) to be better than the second tier, I question your faith in Remco.
5. Nice burn.

Who are my peers? Reading this topic for the last few pages shows i don't agree with many Evenepoel fans. My opinion on Roglic that might make you think i am anti-Roglic, prior to the Giro, was that i thought the drama regarding him getting a "weak team" as many of his fans put it, was ultimately inconsequential as long as he had Kuss with him. And i think my thoughts turned out correct. Foss getting sick, or Van Emden dropping out... all meant nothing, because the other TJV support riders are all good enough for basic support. And ultimately it's up to Kuss. I even distinctly remember questioning the decision to have him go to the Giro with only 1 race (originally planned) in preparation, after his surgery and months of inactivity. Whether going to the Tour wouldn't make more sense for him, especially this year, to give him more time to get back to top form. Other comments i probably did make regarding Roglic fans in general, was that last year, Evenepoel's crash (supposedly) had nothing to do with him being weaker on the two toughest stages, while now a different horn was tooted after Roglic crashed in the Giro.

As for the rest, like i explained before, it's not just not being able to go to the Tour well prepared and in the best possible shape or not. Going to the Tour means diminished chances at the WCC TT, WCC RR and San Sebastian (where he wants the record). I think we can agree he would have better chances of winning the Vuelta, not just due to competition being weaker, but also due to him getting time to prepare himself for it, than he has at the Tour where the competition is fiercer and his preparation is suboptimal. Taking into account the other races i mentioned, whether you or others on the forum like it or not, it simply makes sense to skip the Tour this year. Which is what started the discussion a few pages back. A poster said about Evenepoel not doing the Tour "Makes zero sense." and "All this waiting around for I do not even know what is pretty ridiculous." Which is why i explained it did make sense, and that there is a valid reason, whether he sees it or not.

And who knows, if he smokes everybody at TdS, maybe they can still send him. Maybe we should just wait for that race to see how well his form has held up the past 4 weeks before going ballistic about needing to ride the Tour.

 

[SHAD0W93]

@Big Doopie might not want to read this.

Imagine if in 2007, Contador hadn’t ridden the Tour because he was young and unlikely to win, then in 2008 he wasn’t allowed to ride the Tour, then in 2009 with Lance on his team and not being the returning Tour winner, he defended his Giro title, then in 2010 maybe Lance would have been the returning champion so he again rides the Giro, and so on. Obviously, who knows, but the point is, Contador was way less ready than Remco in 2007, and he ended up winning 1 of his only 2 Tour wins that year. He looked like he might win 5 or 6 and ended up with 2. I would choose to go if I were him.

Unless he truly is nowhere close, has lingering Covid impacts, etc, in which case he should ride the Vuelta.

I remember Contador winning three Tour de Frances and if we want to go further on that route, he never would have had to worry about 2010 either way. The rest is true, Contador looked like he was on the crest of reaching 11 GT wins or passing it.


I’d like him at the Tour but only if it doesn’t hamper his fall objectives.

 

[Oldermanish]

i know you think they do, but these comparisons do not support your argument at all.

Merckx rode in a different era when his competition was doing an equal amount of races, so he was not hurt by competing against more rested, better-prepped riders.

how many GTs did Valverde "win"? one vuelta. so what you are suggesting is that remco should race all of your chosen races in order to never win a single other GT.

Comparing to the old days is a waste of time. Specialization has rendered few riders that are relevant to the days of old. Still, there are a few adventurers that attempt all things to find out and Remco lives among them.

 

[red_flanders]

Merckx is the definition of incomparable.

 

[Extinction]

Who are my peers? Reading this topic for the last few pages shows i don't agree with many Evenepoel fans. My opinion on Roglic that might make you think i am anti-Roglic, prior to the Giro, was that i thought the drama regarding him getting a "weak team" as many of his fans put it, was ultimately inconsequential as long as he had Kuss with him. And i think my thoughts turned out correct. Foss getting sick, or Van Emden dropping out... all meant nothing, because the other TJV support riders are all good enough for basic support. And ultimately it's up to Kuss. I even distinctly remember questioning the decision to have him go to the Giro with only 1 race (originally planned) in preparation, after his surgery and months of inactivity. Whether going to the Tour wouldn't make more sense for him, especially this year, to give him more time to get back to top form. Other comments i probably did make regarding Roglic fans in general, was that last year, Evenepoel's crash (supposedly) had nothing to do with him being weaker on the two toughest stages, while now a different horn was tooted after Roglic crashed in the Giro.

As for the rest, like i explained before, it's not just not being able to go to the Tour well prepared and in the best possible shape or not. Going to the Tour means diminished chances at the WCC TT, WCC RR and San Sebastian (where he wants the record). I think we can agree he would have better chances of winning the Vuelta, not just due to competition being weaker, but also due to him getting time to prepare himself for it, than he has at the Tour where the competition is fiercer and his preparation is suboptimal. Taking into account the other races i mentioned, whether you or others on the forum like it or not, it simply makes sense to skip the Tour this year. Which is what started the discussion a few pages back. A poster said about Evenepoel not doing the Tour "Makes zero sense." and "All this waiting around for I do not even know what is pretty ridiculous." Which is why i explained it did make sense, and that there is a valid reason, whether he sees it or not.

And who knows, if he smokes everybody at TdS, maybe they can still send him. Maybe we should just wait for that race to see how well his form has held up the past 4 weeks before going ballistic about needing to ride the Tour.

Agreed. Even if I stated baldly that he "needs" to go to the Tour, nobody needs to do anything. However, my opinion is that not sending him to the Tour this year to learn, will more likely than not compromise his prospects in France in 2024. It makes sense that for Worlds, San Sebastian and the Vuelta are the better routes. Yet, having already won each (except Worlds TT), I question not sending him to the Tour. He only did 9 days of the Giro and should be able to show up, as others in the past have done who had to exit the corsa rosa early, in decent enough shape. Here I concord with VayaVayaVaya.

You may have meant it wryly, but I really think his performance at TdS should be taken into consideration. If he is fying, they'd be crazy not to have him at the Grand Bouclé. De gustibus though.

 

[Volderke]

Those saying that he is only 23, forego the fact that he entered the pro ranks when 19 and already going full ballistic. There is no need to wait. Every year he waits, is a year his competition in the tour is very happy.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

@Big Doopie might not want to read this.

Imagine if in 2007, Contador hadn’t ridden the Tour because he was young and unlikely to win, then in 2008 he wasn’t allowed to ride the Tour, then in 2009 with Lance on his team and not being the returning Tour winner, he defended his Giro title, then in 2010 maybe Lance would have been the returning champion so he again rides the Giro, and so on. Obviously, who knows, but the point is, Contador was way less ready than Remco in 2007, and he ended up winning 1 of his only 2 Tour wins that year. He looked like he might win 5 or 6 and ended up with 2. I would choose to go if I were him.

Unless he truly is nowhere close, has lingering Covid impacts, etc, in which case he should ride the Vuelta.

Could Contador have won the World Championships or Lombardia? Was his prep in any way affected in 2007? If Evenepoel had targeted the Tour from the start this year it would have made sense and I was also getting impatient. It‘s just stupid to throw away a chance to win some of the biggest races so you can gain experience in the Tour finishing fourth.

 

[Extinction]

Could Contador have won the World Championships or Lombardia? Was his prep in any way affected in 2007? If Evenepoel had targeted the Tour from the start this year it would have made sense and I was also getting impatient. It‘s just stupid to throw away a chance to win some of the biggest races so you can gain experience in the Tour finishing fourth.

I'd be fine with hypothetically sacrificing another Worlds, if it meant winning the Tour in 2024. And to me the best chance Remco has for yellow next year, is riding the Grand Bouclé this time (also for the team, which I don't think is ready yet to shoulder the burden of defending yellow, thus a trial period now would be very usefull).

And even if Evenepoel isn't optimally prepared for Worlds, it doesn't mean he can't still take the rainbow jersey. On the other hand, Belgium also has van Aert's card to play to keep the title for a second year.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Some sound arguments against him doing the Tour this year, but on the other hand I look at someone like Bernal and I bet he's happy he started riding the TDF as soon as he could, as one never knows when personal misfortune or the emergence of new rivals starts closing the window of opportunity. Remco has a far broader range of targets of course, but I just hope he has a period of smooth sailing to tick some of them off as well as arriving at the Tour next year at the latest.

 

[Salvarani]

I'd be fine with hypothetically sacrificing another Worlds, if it meant winning the Tour in 2024. And to me the best chance Remco has for yellow next year, is riding the Grand Bouclé this time (also for the team, which I don't think is ready yet to shoulder the burden of defending yellow, thus a trial period now would be very usefull).

And even if Evenepoel isn't optimally prepared for Worlds, it doesn't mean he can't still take the rainbow jersey. On the other hand, Belgium also has van Aert's card to play to keep the title for a second year.

I think it is the ITT that would be/is the target and not the RR. Of course, defending the title in the RR would be quite amazing but a lot can happen in that race.

 

[Volderke]

Those who want me to be patient, forget that Remco is special and the patient approach isn't maybe the best for the very special 'case Remco'.
He went from espoir to pro at 19, and BECAUSE his climb to the top is stellar / stratospheric, he shouldn't be held back until he's 23.
He instigated fear in most of his competitors the moment he came into the peloton 4 years ago, and notwithstanding his setbacks, I feel he's ready to excel and show he's rock solid, instead of putting him in an incubator.

Remco is a GT rider and his main career goal is winning the TdF.
In reality, his goals this year, after the GIRO abandon, MAY involve a GT as an afterthought. It's just not very ambitious and his age shouldn't be part of the equation with his potential and track record.
I am looking forward to TdS and hope he destroys the race. If he doesn't, I eat my words and I will become humble again.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I think the whole "he should go to the tour this year"-discussion was a fair discussion before the season/early in the season. If he prepared for the Tour he should be more than ready for it.

They decided against it and that is the reason why "he isn't ready for the tour". How many years he's been a pro, his age etc is completely irrelevant about if he's ready or not. The fact he aimed for the Giro, got Covid and haven't prepared for the Tour with recon and altitude camps is relevant.