Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Big Doopie]

I always find it so weird how big the difference between his top- and “I just started racing again”-form is. The people that dropped him…

it is very clear that he is a major responder to altitude training. perhaps at the very high end of the spectrum in terms of pro cyclists.

seems to be the case based on observation and it is not until he does these that he gets the ability to accelerate and then accelerate again, and again (as seen at SS, LBL and WCs).

also things need to go right, no crashes, no covid. no 10 days off the bike. otherwise his climbing in particular becomes "ordinary".

i would have loved us to see him at the vuelta last year without his crash. i think the two stages where he showed that "ordinary" climbing may have been quite different.

having said that, i 100% agree that last year's Vuelta was particularly weak in providing any multi-climbs to altitude tests, and that remains for sure a real question.

(above is bolded, simply to emphasize that i am not blind!)

 

[Big Doopie]

Take it to the clinic.

actually, very funny that you say that, i actually think it has become a little like that. sure it's "natural", but it seems more and more that riders have to disappear for weeks on end before any major goals (like before, but for different reasons) because the benefit (from an interview with a team coach) can be as much as 5%. That is huge at that level. huge.

this means, that once again it is very hard to measure performances against each other unless we know that the riders in question all prepped for the same race.

Moderators: this is NOT a clinic post. I am simply pointing out how natural altitude training affects modern racing.

 

[Riek s]

Hard correlation because riders who peak to a certain event tend to do altitude camps.

so you always see the in form (including altitude) vs building up (no or less altitude camp) and most of the time there is a block of multiple weeks of specific training in between.

To do a correct comparison you need to the same prep with and without altitude camp unlike what we are comparing now.



Today Remco wasn't good, but he only lost it at the end of the climb. without the descend we wouldn't really have talked about today as a big problem.

His major issue is descending, or at least taking risks during descending. (Ofcourse one can argue he shouldn't take risks for this race, but he is still probably toning it down a little to much)

 

[peterfin]

I always find it so weird how big the difference between his top- and “I just started racing again”-form is. The people that dropped him…

Not even sure he’ll be able to follow in the hills. If he can he might take some time with bonus seconds and otherwise he might take it with the TT. Although after seeing Ayuso today I’m not sure he’s able to win it. He was pretty good in Romandië.

I think it is mainly the lack of an altitude camp vs racing against GC-riders and climbers who did. As you can see here (link) the difference at ~2000 m (7000 ft) is on the order of 5% which equals the 20-30 watts he is talking about. It gets worse in a race with higher climbs so it's normal he struggled again today. However, it also means that closer to sea-level his disadvantage diminishes. The TT's are still at relatively high altitude so he can still expect a power output loss of ~2%. Due to the fact that power ~ speed^3 (to offset the most important force = aerodynamic drag) this is a performance loss in time of about 0,7% or which means means 10-15s loss for a 25 km TT vs those that did the altitude camp. Still, it could be good enough to win the race but it could be close indeed.

Remco is always going for the GC. If Thomas, Yates or other decent climbers underperform it's never news. They are training, they are not good enough yet or they had a bad day. Remco always goes all-in and basically never has a really bad day. His tank is never empty. However, to really outperform he does need things to be right and an altitude camp seems to be a requirement. I am now convinced as well.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

You mean the guy who won Algarve, Burgos and Pologne in 2020 couldn't have possibly won a bigger WT stage race before last season?
C'mon you are clearly disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing. Show me a single rider who has won this many high level stage races without ever winning PN, TA, Catalunya, Pais Vasco, Romandie, Dauphine or the TdS, those 7 probably being the consensus 7 biggest one week stage races. I'm not saying this is the crazies cycling statistic in existence, I just think it's a bit of an outlier.

Wellens, Sosa

 

[Big Doopie]

I think it is mainly the lack of an altitude camp vs racing against GC-riders and climbers who did. As you can see here (link) the difference at ~2000 m (7000 ft) is on the order of 5% which equals the 20-30 watts he is talking about. It gets worse in a race with higher climbs so it's normal he struggled again today. However, it also means that closer to sea-level his disadvantage diminishes. The TT's are still at relatively high altitude so he can still expect a power output loss of ~2%. Due to the fact that power ~ speed^3 (to offset the most important force = aerodynamic drag) this is a performance loss in time of about 0,7% or which means means 10-15s loss for a 25 km TT vs those that did the altitude camp. Still, it could be good enough to win the race but it could be close indeed.

Remco is always going for the GC. If Thomas, Yates or other decent climbers underperform it's never news. They are training, they are not good enough yet or they had a bad day. Remco always goes all-in and basically never has a really bad day. His tank is never empty. However, to really outperform he does need things to be right and an altitude camp seems to be a requirement. I am now convinced as well.

omg.

this is really well put and explained.

 

[Gigs_98]

Wellens, Sosa

I admit they come quite close. Neither of them have won quite as many stage races as Remco, Wellens won his 7 over a much longer time span and Sosa's 8 wins are of an even smaller profile than Remco's. The weird thing with Remco is that, different to Sosa and Wellens, he actually has bigger wins than those small stage races, it's just that his palmares has a complete gap at the big one week races. But anyway, I'll give you that they come pretty close to what I described.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

As somebody else said, he hasn't ridden many.... what do you expect.

TdS 22 he failed, for the rest he didnt' even fail, Tirreno not there yet, Pais Vasco good but riding for others. TdS 23 really his second attempt....

 

[ManicJack]

is on the order of 5% which equals the 20-30 watts he is talking about.

5% was equivalent to 30 watts? So his FTP after 3+ hours of racing is 600 watts? That's almost 10 w/kg. Maybe I'm missing something. Please explain.

 

[Red Rick]

This TdS says comparatively little about where he is at right now, or what he could've done in the Giro, other than his relative strength on different types of mountain stages and the fact that his descending is still ***.

It does give a very convincing argument for not going to the TdF

 

[SHAD0W93]

You could also say the first 5 week stage races were pretty weak for this rider as well; 55, 44, 4, 5, and 3. On top of that, the rider hadn’t won single GT at the time. Yet now that rider is considered the best week stage racer of all time.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

You could also say the first 5 week stage races were pretty weak for this rider as well; 55, 44, 4, 5, and 3. On top of that, the rider hadn’t won single GT at the time. Yet now that rider is considered the best week stage racer of all time.

Spilak?

 

[kingjr]

Spilak?

Sean Kelly

 

[Red Rick]

Spilak?

I believe it's Roglic.

 

[Netserk]

I believe it's Roglic.

Who, like Evenepoel now, at that point was in his 5th WT season and well past his big breakthrough.

Or is the logic that if only Evenepoel had started one of those races each season, or done as many as quickly as Rogla, he would have a far better track record in them?

 

[peterfin]

5% was equivalent to 30 watts? So his FTP after 3+ hours of racing is 600 watts? That's almost 10 w/kg. Maybe I'm missing something. Please explain.

He said he does 380-390 watt vs 400-430 watt normal. In reality it will be ~20 watt so ~5%. It's highly altitude dependent so I assume his 430 watt will be closer to sea level.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm never gonna ask Evenepoel for advice when I have a math problem.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I'm never gonna ask Evenepoel for advice when I have a math problem.

Would you ask any former footballer for it?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm never gonna ask Evenepoel for advice when I have a math problem.

That list is growing shorter by the day!

 

[peterfin]

I'm never gonna ask Evenepoel for advice when I have a math problem.

Today he actually said he was missing 15 watt so precision is not his strength or he sprays around some numbers to keep everyone guessing 🤔 At least we now know approximately when he says he misses a few %. His power meter is his buddy. That's how he measures himself.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I don‘t care about these Watts, just tell me if he‘s at 120 or 150%.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Th

Who, like Evenepoel now, at that point was in his 5th WT season and well past his big breakthrough.

Or is the logic that if only Evenepoel had started one of those races each season, or done as many as quickly as Rogla, he would have a far better track record in them?

The argument is like two other GT winners, Evenepoel is on the same track as they were in their first 5 week stage races. Evenepoel also unlike them had been focusing on the classics, monuments, and worlds during this time. You’re have brought up the standings of Pog and Vinge to belittle Evenepoel. Is Evenepoel’s sample size small? Yes. Is he going to ride as many of these as Roglic, Pog, or Vinge? No, probably not. Has Evenepoel’s week stage race start been similar to Roglic and Vinge? Yes.

Or is the constant belittling because Evenepoel has won a lot of the smaller week races? Which is better than his peers.

 

[Andre]

I'm hoping Remco can cut a few seconds down on the leader in the next 2 stages. Even 10 seconds would be good. That would leave 36 seconds for the TT.

 

[houtdffan]

Remco said he witnessed the crash today

Explains why he descended like a grandma on crutches. He wasn't going to take any chances given how he also once took the expressway down a mountain

 

[Rackham]

Now that someone has mentioned Roglič (I wasn't going to say anything for reasons relating to 'fanboy' accusations), I'll say for me the biggest takeaway (& lesson here) with regards to Evenepoel's performance in Suisse is this pretty much correlates with Rog's performance in the Vuelta 2022: Rog had only 2 weeks training before the Vuelta (after needing to rest up as a result of his TdF injury) & his performance was 'meh' in the mountains. He lacked depth on the longer climbs & harder stages. He was eventually coming into some form after a further two weeks within that Vuelta but his first week numbers were way below his usual level.

We're seeing something very similar here with Evenepoel after his Giro DNF & sickness last month. He just lacks form, basically. It says nothing about his normal level nor his potential.

And he can still win the Tour de Suisse as well for what it's worth, even though it just got much harder after today because despite being a bit inconsistent himself due to his own injury problem earlier this season, Ayuso is not a bad time trialist, so losing that much time versus Ayuso today was not great for Evenepoel's GC hopes.