Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[witeken]

Remco won't be extremely happy with the GC, but still decent. I would focus on Roglic if I was him, if it gets actually very hard, Vingegaard and Kuss will drop. But based on the performance of Roglic... It's going to be very difficult to win this Vuelta

Remcobros, what went wrong? Only 20 seconds...

He said he couldn't push his watts as planned today and had a weak moment around 10 minutes. Still managed to not lose much time to Ganna (and again gained time at the end just like last week) and ahead of all GC guys including Olympic champion, so despite mediocre performance (compared to his standards) still great result. Still, already the second time this happened though. But not sure why people put Roglic forward as the "favorite" when he is behind in GC and clearly lost today to a mediocre Remco (with/despite Roglic saying he pushed really nice watts).

Kuss might still be a minute ahead, but in the big mountains such time is quickly lost if Remco achieves the kind of level like Pogacar and Vingegaard in the Tour (i.e. doesn't have more weak days).

For example @Red Rick analysis in the ITT thread. He has already forgotten that Remco obliterated Reglic in that uphill sprint. Even if he reverses Remco's sprinting dominance and wins he gains just 4 seconds. So the only way for Roglic to win is basically for Remco to have another mediocre day where he can't push his maximum watts.

 

[Valanga]

If he loses minutes without an obvious reason he needs to accept that he is not (yet) at their level. It also means that in order to win a GC against Rog, Pog and Vingegaard there are a lot of things that need to go right and not just regarding his own preparation. So winning the TdF will be a huge challenge but it's not that he won't make a major goal of it.

Does the same thing applies to Pogaçar? Just wondering.

 

[Extinction]

He said he couldn't push his watts as planned today and had a weak moment around 10 minutes. Still managed to not lose much time to Ganna (and again gained time at the end just like last week) and ahead of all GC guys including Olympic champion, so despite mediocre performance (compared to his standards) still great result. Still, already the second time this happened though. But not sure why people put Roglic forward as the "favorite" when he is behind in GC and clearly lost today to a mediocre Remco (with/despite Roglic saying he pushed really nice watts).

Kuss might still be a minute ahead, but in the big mountains such time is quickly lost if Remco achieves the kind of level like Pogacar and Vingegaard in the Tour (i.e. doesn't have more weak days).

For example @Red Rick analysis in the ITT thread. He has already forgotten that Remco obliterated Reglic in that uphill sprint. Even if he reverses Remco's sprinting dominance and wins he gains just 4 seconds. So the only way for Roglic to win is basically for Remco to have another mediocre day where he can't push his maximum watts.

I don't see him as growing in the mountains, but he must not decrease, just as the others must not increase, if he really can win this Vuelta.

 

[Volderke]

About Remco's chances...
I think he can 'grow' even more into this race. But you never know and there is as much chance he will falter on an uphill finish (even the one today) and lose anything between 10s and a minute to Roglic, or even have a jour sans and lose minutes.

Roglic has, until now, been rock-solid and I see his as the biggest treat for Remco, and if Kuss falters, as the 'only' Jumbo rider to beat. Remco has been solid, for most of the time, and we can only see in the coming days if he rides how he claims he feels (very good, after his moment of weakness on Javalambre he blamed on the crash on day 3).

If Remco thinks he is on the same level as Roglic (*), his best chances are (don't laugh with this, I'm serious) bonus seconds in the intermediate sprints or at the finish and if that's out of reach, allowing breaks up the road. But it's Jumbo who will determine if Roglic will go for stage, SQS can sometimes maybe influence this but they cannot control all of the stages.
(*) If he is not on the same level as Roglic, not much can help him anyway, or it must be a raid like Fuente de De (stage 18 looks perfect).

In order to deal with Kuss, I think he will (and I would advise him to) be patient, who knows Kuss has a bad day or is slowly losing time in steep finishes (and if he doesn't he will be the very rightfull winner). If Kuss is still in the mix after rest day 2, and especially if Remco is still in the mix, we'll have fireworks in the last week. Kuss could actually be Remco's biggest gift, if Remco is only able to follow (but not leave behind) Roglic: the longer Kuss is in the mix, the longer of a stalemate Roglic has to deal with. If Remco just does nothing at all, Kuss stays in red until after Angliru and Remco can put Kuss at a distance in stage 20, Roglic won't have the opportunity anymore to attack.

 

[peterfin]

Does the same thing applies to Pogaçar? Just wondering.

Good question. Pogacar did win the TdF two times so he has experience but he also lost the last two years due to major failures in the mountains. We could argue that he lost the 2022 edition due to bad tactics (spending too much energy chasing a superb JV team) and the 2023 edition mainly due to bad preparation but that may not be the whole story. He definitely needs good conditions to win against JV but I think he and his team are still confident that the chances are at least 50-50 if things work out according to plan.

 

[danielovichdk2]

All these excuses to diminish the fact that he could not follow the top contenders. Crash, illness, bad day. Whatever. He lost 30 seconds. Period.

A brilliant move by JV to play Kuss into the overall GC, because now Remco also have to take him into consideration.

And the kid should beware of the fuse blowing. The outbursts and his temper will tire him mentally too.

JV puts the foot down the coming weekend and then waits for week 3 to drill the knife on everybody.

The TT is not saving him.

Where am i wrong ? I only forgot UAE is drilling it too. Ayuso will go nuts for the rest of the race.

Jonas is obviously not in tdf shape but I wouldn't write him off just yet.

Remco has his hands full. With UAE showing splendid form. Rogla looks astonishing. Sepp I don't believe will last but he will finish in front Remco come Madrid.

Remco is not in top 5 when this race is over. That's my prediction.

Great race so far.

 

[theyoungest]

He said he couldn't push his watts as planned today and had a weak moment around 10 minutes. Still managed to not lose much time to Ganna (and again gained time at the end just like last week) and ahead of all GC guys including Olympic champion, so despite mediocre performance (compared to his standards) still great result. Still, already the second time this happened though. But not sure why people put Roglic forward as the "favorite" when he is behind in GC and clearly lost today to a mediocre Remco (with/despite Roglic saying he pushed really nice watts).

Kuss might still be a minute ahead, but in the big mountains such time is quickly lost if Remco achieves the kind of level like Pogacar and Vingegaard in the Tour (i.e. doesn't have more weak days).

For example @Red Rick analysis in the ITT thread. He has already forgotten that Remco obliterated Reglic in that uphill sprint. Even if he reverses Remco's sprinting dominance and wins he gains just 4 seconds. So the only way for Roglic to win is basically for Remco to have another mediocre day where he can't push his maximum watts.

There's been only one real mountain day in this Vuelta so far, and there Remco got dropped quite decisively. The others were more the typical Vuelta unipuerto finishes where time trialists-turned-climbers can do quite well. I'm still waiting to see how he is in the real mountains before I declare him the favourite... and even if he does well there, he's up against two stronger teams that can make him work when he doesn't want to.

It also depends on whether Vingegaard can return to a decent level, until now he's been significantly worse than in the Tour, with the time trial as the ultimate proof of that... but still he's only a minute or so behind Evenepoel, and what should normally be his kind of stages are still coming up.

 

[Berniece]

There's been only one real mountain day in this Vuelta so far, and there Remco got dropped quite decisively.

Because his neck and back were stuck due to his crash.

 

[bNator]

But not sure why people put Roglic forward as the "favorite" when he is behind in GC and clearly lost today to a mediocre Remco (with/despite Roglic saying he pushed really nice watts).

Several reasons:
1. Upcoming terrain should be favourable to Roglic.
2. Roglic was the only one who dropped the other guy amongst the two.
3. Roglic being behind in GC is due to stage 1 TTT.
4. Roglic losing only 20 seconds to Remco in a TT like yesterday is a bad sign for Remco.
5. Roglic has way better team than Remco in this Vuelta

 

[peterfin]

We have a lot of reasons to think one is better or best but in practice not that much has happened yet. I would say that Remco's weak moment (but good recovery) during the mountain stage and his weak moment during the TT (according to his post-race interview) are the only signals that indicate he is not top (yet) while Roglic looks very strong now and was only lacking a bit of sharpness early on.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Good job today blocking the road and then sprinting hard for no time or bonifications. Masterclass

 

[peterfin]

Good job today blocking the road and then sprinting hard for no time or bonifications. Masterclass

In his interview he said that it was not a full sprint but just a controlled acceleration not to risk a counter. His mind is clearly set on spending as little energy as possible today and tomorrow to be ready for Friday and Saturday.

 

[Volderke]

Good job today blocking the road and then sprinting hard for no time or bonifications. Masterclass

Riders were free to try and take time (like Cian tried to do), but they clearly weren't willing to risk it.
Remco is in a very good place: his team doesn't have to work, and Roglic / Vingegaard aren't going to attack with Kuss in red.
So Remco is playing the waiting game, and as long as he believes he can take time on Kuss (and Soler) in the harder stages (Tourmalet, Angliru), he doesn't have to do anything.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Riders were free to try and take time (like Cian tried to do), but they clearly weren't willing to risk it.
Remco is in a very good place: his team doesn't have to work, and Roglic / Vingegaard aren't going to attack with Kuss in red.
So Remco is playing the waiting game, and as long as he believes he can take time on Kuss (and Soler) in the harder stages (Tourmalet, Angliru), he doesn't have to do anything.

Carthy tried to chase Cian down as soon as he could but he was roadblocked for more than a minute. He wasn‘t free to try and take anything.

 

[bNator]

Riders were free to try and take time (like Cian tried to do), but they clearly weren't willing to risk it.
Remco is in a very good place: his team doesn't have to work, and Roglic / Vingegaard aren't going to attack with Kuss in red.
So Remco is playing the waiting game, and as long as he believes he can take time on Kuss (and Soler) in the harder stages (Tourmalet, Angliru), he doesn't have to do anything.

That’s basically what I’ve been saying in one of the other threads. What seems like an advantage for TJV (Kuss in red) could in the end turn out to be a disadvantage if Remco is able to drop Kuss late in the Vuelta - too late for Roglic (and Vinge) to respond while missing other opportunities that present up to that point (because of Kuss is in red)…

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Remco has a blueprint for victory now: block the road during most difficult stages and perform a long-range attack on the penultimate, crazy stage.

 

[Volderke]

Carthy tried to chase Cian down as soon as he could but he was roadblocked for more than a minute. He wasn‘t free to try and take anything.

nope, because Kelderman (why oh why?) was marking him.

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

Riders were free to try and take time (like Cian tried to do), but they clearly weren't willing to risk it.
Remco is in a very good place: his team doesn't have to work, and Roglic / Vingegaard aren't going to attack with Kuss in red.
So Remco is playing the waiting game, and as long as he believes he can take time on Kuss (and Soler) in the harder stages (Tourmalet, Angliru), he doesn't have to do anything.

I think the waiting game is to see whether he'll continue after the weekend. The writing is on the wall...

 

[theyoungest]

Remco has a blueprint for victory now: block the road during most difficult stages and perform a long-range attack on the penultimate, crazy stage.

I think he's given Jumbo a blueprint for victory, since they have the better climbers: block the road from now until Madrid.

 

[Volderke]

Carthy tried to chase Cian down as soon as he could but he was roadblocked for more than a minute. He wasn‘t free to try and take anything.

It seems the forum complains more than the Remcomplainer himself.
Whatever happens in the peloton, it's Remco's fault.

here is a picture of the peloton with Remco in the middle.

 

[Panda Claws]

Why is this thread full of the most lukewarm takes?

"Remco could win it but he could also have a bad day and lose!"

Damn. Talk about living on the edge.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

It seems the forum complains more than the Remcomplainer himself.
Whatever happens in the peloton, it's Remco's fault.

here is a picture of the peloton with Remco in the middle.

Where did I say it‘s Remco‘s fault, I‘m just trying to correct a misrepresentation in your post.
Not everything has to be an attack on Belgian Spilak.

 

[Netserk]

Where did I say it‘s Remco‘s fault, I‘m just trying to correct a misrepresentation in your post.
Not everything has to be an attack on Belgian Spilak.

If it's not praise, then it is blame. There is no in between here, not for the cult members.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Why is this thread full of the most lukewarm takes?

"Remco could win it but he could also have a bad day and lose!"

Damn. Talk about living on the edge.

It’s almost like no one knows what the future will bring..

 

[Salvarani]

He is just holding back. Cant wait until he unleashes on the stages coming up! We have been promised.