Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Rou]

Jesus, I should have remebered that. Painful.

Still, does he think he can win over Pog and Nys on Huy?

I think he can eliminate Nys far before the last Huy.

 

[Red Rick]

Fleche is even beyond Evenepoel for a long solo IMO. And I don't think he can win the uphill sprint on the Mur either.

 

[Rou]

Fleche is even beyond Evenepoel for a long solo IMO. And I don't think he can win the uphill sprint on the Mur either.

Last year I also thought that it's impossible to win Giro dell'Emilia with a long solo but we were proven wrong. Fleche is not a unipuerto and can be made reasonably hard.

 

[houtdffan]

Last time he rode FW he came 43rd.

So, will he just use FW as a prep race before LBL or will he actually try to win?
If the latter I wonder how he will try to win. Betting on beating the likes of Pog and Nys on Huy seems a bit optimistic. Attack before Huy? Will be hard to shake Pog and Lidl-Trek will probably be on the alert.

Or maybe he just want to test himself against Pog et al on Huy to see where he stands on such a final nowdays. His explosiveness has improved after all.

An "easier" race effort on wednesday seems smart before LBL and after the hard race today.

he and Pog likely will be clear by the second time up Huy, if not earlier.

FW likely becomes a match race

 

[Red Rick]

Last year I also thought that it's impossible to win Giro dell'Emilia with a long solo but we were proven wrong. Fleche is not a unipuerto and can be made reasonably hard.

They are very different and always have been. Emilia has been won by longer breakaways before, and because the lap of San Luca is so short, it's basically impossible to have a very coordinated chase. It's won on the last climb because everyone waits because there is no reason to go earlier. However there are only 10 or so riders going into the final San Luca climb pretty frequently.

Compare that to the lead into the Mur de Huy, where you often have a 80 man strong peloton on a false flat downhill completely mowing down a small breakaway.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Jesus, I should have remebered that. Painful.

Still, does he think he can win over Pog and Nys on Huy?

I think Nys can be cooked if the pace is set very high from the bottom of the climb. If they wait fairly long then Nys may have the advantage. Pog clearly isn't in his best form anymore, so not unbeatable. I wouldn't say Evenepoel is the favorite, but he has a chance.

 

[Berniece]

I think Nys can be cooked if the pace is set very high from the bottom of the climb. If they wait fairly long then Nys may have the advantage. Pog clearly isn't in his best form anymore, so not unbeatable. I wouldn't say Evenepoel is the favorite, but he has a chance.

But in a “bunch” sprint on Huy? Not sure about that, I would think Skjelmose might already be better.

I’m not sure he can attack and stay away. Unless SOQ really tries to make the whole race hard so he has a chance to attack.

 

[Red Rick]

I think Nys can be cooked if the pace is set very high from the bottom of the climb. If they wait fairly long then Nys may have the advantage. Pog clearly isn't in his best form anymore, so not unbeatable. I wouldn't say Evenepoel is the favorite, but he has a chance.

Fleche doesn't even suit Pogacar that great anyway. It's a super fresh 2'40 climb, which is frankly too short for Pogacar. He's been torched multiple times even in years when he would go on to compete in Liege.

 

[CyclistAbi]

All in all a good performance today at Amstel and chapeau for closing the gap, whilst peloton gave up.

 

[houtdffan]

But in a “bunch” sprint on Huy? Not sure about that, I would think Skjelmose might already be better.

I’m not sure he can attack and stay away. Unless SOQ really tries to make the whole race hard so he has a chance to attack.

there are plenty of hills for a Pog/Remco match race to develop

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

But in a “bunch” sprint on Huy? Not sure about that, I would think Skjelmose might already be better.

I’m not sure he can attack and stay away. Unless SOQ really tries to make the whole race hard so he has a chance to attack.

Yes, in a bunch finish. I wouldn't rate him the favorite, but i would certainly say he has a chance if he is able to hang on and win a sprint on the flatter part before the line. I'm not saying Skjelmose or Nys or Pidcock or Hirschi etc don't have a chance.

 

[Oldman]

Think it just shows it's been a waste not racing Sanremo and RVV too

Remco said he needs more racing to be at his best in the later hour of a 5-hr stint. He's right and he can ramp up selectively to accomplish that. It'll be tough to carry what he has into a 3rd week of a GT, I fear. He's had to take so much necessary recovery that this should be considered an excellent 2 races for him.
He also had a mature and introspective post race interview and gave credit to Skjelmose and Tadej. Good progress.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think he might be able to pull off a solo in FW if there is a team effort to blow up the race beforehand and some other factors go his way. I'm pretty sure he and Pogacar would be able to pull it off together. In fact I'm convinced the possibility to avoid the Mur de Huy "bunch sprint" was always there if teams were interested in it, but they simply never were. You just don't put your entire team through a massive effort a few days before a way more important race to achieve what? Your leader going into the Mur in a 10 men group instead of a 50 men group? And then he probably has to beat the same 9 guys who would have been the strongest on the Mur anyway.

 

[Panda Claws]

Strong performance. Showing that the class is still there.

Pogacar was impressive still but it looks like we might have a somewhat level playing field for Liege so we can finally get that long awaited clash.

Lots of overreacting about Pogacar too. You can't expect someone, even when he's so good as Pogacar, to win everything. There'll be plenty more 2nds and 3rds before his career is through.

 

[Berniece]

Think it just shows it's been a waste not racing Sanremo and RVV too

For Evenepoel? He was only 1 month training outside when they were riding MSR. He should ride it next year though

 

[Red Rick]

For Evenepoel? He was only 1 month training outside when they were riding MSR. He should ride it next year though

I'm talking previous years

 

[Berniece]

I'm talking previous years

Oh my bad, I agree. After 2021 they decided to be overly cautious with his development and program.

 

[Red Rick]

Oh my bad, I agree. After 2021 they decided to be overly cautious with his development and program.

Pretty much.

Debuting in the TdF in his 6th year at WT level is pretty wtf honestly. And yes I know the 2020 crash lost him a lot of momentum, but that's also why the 2021 Giro looks so insane to me. Calmly building up to the Vuelta in 2021 and then reevaluating seems like a nobrainer to me.

Then I think prioritizing the Giro because of some strange "Vuelta then Giro then Tour" obsession in 2023 was just strange as well.

 

[Berniece]

Pretty much.

Debuting in the TdF in his 6th year at WT level is pretty wtf honestly. And yes I know the 2020 crash lost him a lot of momentum, but that's also why the 2021 Giro looks so insane to me. Calmly building up to the Vuelta in 2021 and then reevaluating seems like a nobrainer to me.

Then I think prioritizing the Giro because of some strange "Vuelta then Giro then Tour" obsession in 2023 was just strange as well.

The Giro obsession probably came because he missed it in 2020 due to the crash, but I agree, slowly building up to Vuelta 2021 would have been better. After that disastrous 2021, they got so afraid of skipping steps with him, that they took it way too slow.

 

[Medvind]

So how should Remco try to beat Pog on sunday?

Just try to follow Pog's attack and try to win a sprint?

Try to get away with Pog on La Redoute and try to wear Pog out with hard pulls, hoping Pog's form is on a downward trajectory.

Pog might be a bit more cautious on sunday, maybe saving his energy for an all-out attack on Roche-aux-Faucons. Don't think this is a scenario Remco wants. A relatively fresh Pog will take 10s on Remco on Faucons and then it is probably over.

A gruelling race should be the best scenario for Remco given Pog's tough spring schedule.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So how should Remco try to beat Pog on sunday?

Just try to follow Pog's attack and try to win a sprint?

Try to get away with Pog on La Redoute and try to wear Pog out with hard pulls, hoping Pog's form is on a downward trajectory.

Pog might be a bit more cautious on sunday, maybe saving his energy for an all-out attack on Roche-aux-Faucons. Don't think this is a scenario Remco wants. A relatively fresh Pog will take 10s on Remco on Faucons and then it is probably over.

A gruelling race should be the best scenario for Remco given Pog's tough spring schedule.

A long drawn out 1v1 is in Evenepoel's best interest imho. Even if it comes to a sprint. The fresher Pogacar is, the zappier he remains, which is not in Evenepoel's favor.

 

[Red Rick]

Honestly think you let Pogacar ride and catch him as near the finish as possible.

 

[Medvind]

Honestly think you let Pogacar ride and catch him as near the finish as possible.

Question is if Pog will choose to go solo from far out given what happened in Amstel. A chasing Remco in good form is something different from what he is used to. He might be more cautious and wait to later before he attacks.

Anyway, will be interesting to see which tactics they choose.

 

[Red Rick]

Question is if Pog will choose to go solo from far out given what happened in Amstel. A chasing Remco in good form is something different from what he is used to. He might be more cautious and wait to later before he attacks.

Anyway, will be interesting to see which tactics they choose.

Just position yourself back on La Redoute, Pogacar will 100% go.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Honestly think you let Pogacar ride and catch him as near the finish as possible.

One would think he got a reality check yesterday. I don't think he'll be as likely to take that risk again unless he knows something we don't. I think the only scenario for Pog to get his hands dirty early on, is if he is forced.

Pog would also need to attack early enough on a climb that is not followed by a section Evenepoel can revel at. If he attacks at the top of a climb before a long flat/rolling section, i don't see him getting a gap and i doubt he even expects to.

QS would do well to send someone in the break though, and certainly pay attention if UAE sends someone in the break so they can counter that. If Evenepoel is left to chase solo again, a guy like Van Wilder could be worth his weight in gold. Or even Schachmann, Vervaeke or Vansevenant since they likely won't let Van Wilder in a break. On the other hand, if Pog gets a gap, and is immediately greeted by a teammate that could still easily be game over if Evenepoel is left alone.