Narrative lol, he's making simple predictions.Obsolete data. Last year, he was. Not this year.
You should never make a prediction based on luck (one of Vingegaard or Pogacar to get sick, crash out).
You used to say Remco would win for sure a TdF in his career, now you are already saying he "might win one day". You are already changing your narrative. Let's see if in one or two years, you are not changing your narrative again.
These things are not different from any of us predicting what will happen in any race thread.