Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[houtdffan]

with how the TT is dying, maybe the UCI needs to drop the WTT as it is simply not relevant to the sport any longer

 

[Extinction]

It's sad. The believe must be that race becomes more interesting because TTs are "boring" but you get the opposite. Hard and long mountain climbs is all about the watt/kg edge. If you have a clear edge it becomes easy to gain minutes and win the race. A good balance with TTs bring others in the game too with different qualities.

Due to the focus on watt/kg you get all kinds of optimizations on the edge and surely also over the edge (clinic stuff) because you are basically guaranteed to win if you control that part. It was already an issue when Armstrong was controlling the game and I fear that it just got worse ...

But back to Remco. If he wants to win the TdF some day, becoming better and more consistent at climbing should be his focus. A TT win is just a nice extra, nothing more.

I think they, the race designers, did it when the difference uphill between pure climbers and TTers who were also GC candidates, became practically nill or even tipped in favor of the latter types, starting with Indurain, but culminating with Armstrong, who could annihilate the race on the first MTF and then crush the TT and it was over. Consequenty, I think the rational on the part of the race designers was, we gotta curtail the TT distances to keep the climbers in the game, which at the time seemed reasonable. Today, however, to make the GTs interesting again, given that 30 guys ride up mountains at speeds which in the past only half that number or less could do, it's time to bring back those two 50/50+ TTs of old to try and compensate for the over-dominance in the mountains of Pogacar and Vingegaard. It would actually be interesting, and I would now say even necessary to maintain interest over three weeks, to see the time differences two long TTs would generate, rather than everything skewed in favor of mountain performances. However, I'm not saying make it mountains-light, no, keep the uphill aspect as it is, just bring back those long TTs to balance things out and make it more interesting to follow. What the Tour in particular has evolved into is a watts per kilo competition in the mountains amongst superteams, for which riders have gotten lighter and lighter to try and raise the bar, while pushing performance and ethical limits to an extreme. This is another reason to bring back two 50+ km TTs on flat to rolling terrain, which would doubtless drive the team performance managers crazy, but force the riders to have to physically adapt to the different challenge if they don't want to risk their GC.

 

[Berflamand]

I'm not sure if it's smart and it should probably be taken with a large grain of salt but Pauwels has already revealed some details about Belgium's game plan for the upcoming WC: https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/slech...ach-over-het-strijdplan-voor-kigali~a5a31d39/

Surprise, surprise, it's all centered around Pogacar and how to (try to) beat him.

Florian Vermeersch needs to control the first 160km basically on his own. The other 7 riders will be spared as much as possible until Mount Kigali. There it all depends on what Pogacar does.

In an ideal scenario all 7 riders make it over Mount Kigali in the first group(s) but that only happens if Pogacar doesn't attack.

If Pogacar does attack on Mount Kigali only Remco and Cian are allowed to (try to) respond. All other riders need to try to stay together to be able to work together after the climb. They can't make the same mistake as last year where they all tried to close the gap with Pogacar one by one and got burnt out too quickly.

If Pogacar doesn't get away on Mount Kigali or gets caught shortly afterwards, a new race starts but no details have been disclosed about the game plan in that scenario.

Pauwels seems to be looking at Denmark as possible ally to control the race and to try to contain Pogacar. Apparently he has already spoken several times about the WC with Morkov.

 

[Red Rick]

The amount of GTs that would be different with 50k extra ITTs is extremely overrated.

 

[Berniece]

The amount of GTs that would be different with 50k extra ITTs is extremely overrated.

Indeed, as long as he loses 10min in the mountains on Pogacar/Vingegaard, it doesn't matter that he can take 1-2min back during a flat ITT.

 

[Berniece]

I'm not sure if it's smart and it should probably be taken with a large grain of salt but Pauwels has already revealed some details about Belgium's game plan for the upcoming WC: https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/slech...ach-over-het-strijdplan-voor-kigali~a5a31d39/

Surprise, surprise, it's all centered around Pogacar and how to (try to) beat him.

Florian Vermeersch needs to control the first 160km basically on his own. The other 7 riders will be spared as much as possible until Mount Kigali. There it all depends on what Pogacar does.

In an ideal scenario all 7 riders make it over Mount Kigali in the first group(s) but that only happens if Pogacar doesn't attack.

If Pogacar does attack on Mount Kigali only Remco and Cian are allowed to (try to) respond. All other riders need to try to stay together to be able to work together after the climb. They can't make the same mistake as last year where they all tried to close the gap with Pogacar one by one and got burnt out too quickly.

If Pogacar doesn't get away on Mount Kigali or gets caught shortly afterwards, a new race starts but no details have been disclosed about the game plan in that scenario.

Pauwels seems to be looking at Denmark as possible ally to control the race and to try to contain Pogacar. Apparently he has already spoken several times about the WC with Morkov.

Remco and Cian shouldn't be trying to follow Pogacar. If Pogacar really wants to go solo 100km's before the finish, let him go for it. More than time enough to close it if they actually work together.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Indeed, as long as he loses 10min in the mountains on Pogacar/Vingegaard, it doesn't matter that he can take 1-2min back during a flat ITT.

Evenepoel gained like 0.5 s/km on Pogacar during last two flat/rolling time trials at the Tour so not sure where you took those 1-2 minutes from. Pogacar's form at the Tour is so high that he becomes a monster in time trials. It won't matter unless Evenepoel becomes as good climber as Pogacar.

 

[Berflamand]

Remco and Cian shouldn't be trying to follow Pogacar. If Pogacar really wants to go solo 100km's before the finish, let him go for it. More than time enough to close it if they actually work together.

I'd agree but I guess it depends on how depleted the field already is at that point and how good Remco feels. If he feels good and is able to follow I think he won't be able to contain himself.

Having Cian as a sandbag to Pogi's wheel after Mount Kigali wouldn't be bad I guess but I think it's unrealistic to expect Cian to be able to follow Pogacar on Mount Kigali (especially as the only one?).

 

[Berniece]

Evenepoel gained like 0.5 s/km on Pogacar during last two flat/rolling time trials at the Tour so not sure where you took those 1-2 minutes from. Pogacar's form at the Tour is so high that he becomes a monster in time trials. It won't matter unless Evenepoel becomes as good climber as Pogacar.

On a flat ITT of 50km's with an in-form Evenepoel? That's different than what we've seen this TDF.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Evenepoel needs 15 minutes on TTs if he wants to have a realistic chance of winning the Tour against Pogacar. So we are talking about 450 km of TT (2 s/km)
The only difference is Pogacar would need to attack from far out just like Vingegaard did on Madeleine. If Jorgensen worked after the descent, Pogacar would gain (at least) 5 minutes on Onley and Lipowitz. In just one stage.

 

[Berniece]

I'd agree but I guess it depends on how depleted the field already is at that point and how good Remco feels. If he feels good and is able to follow I think he won't be able to contain himself.

Having Cian as a sandbag to Pogi's wheel after Mount Kigali wouldn't be bad I guess but I think it's unrealistic to expect Cian to be able to follow Pogacar on Mount Kigali (especially as the only one?).

Yeah that’s not realistic at all for Cian. He isn’t even able to follow that acceleration and won’t be able to close the gap.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

On a flat ITT of 50km's with an in-form Evenepoel? That's different than what we've seen this TDF.

We saw two quite fast TTs in the Tour last two years and we saw what happened, I just stated the facts (not speculations - you like them, I know). Basically noone said Evenepoel's performances were subpar then. I dunno why you think Evenepoel wasn't in good form on those days. To have a realistic chance against Pogacar in the Tour he would need to hold his wheel almost every time (his advantage from a long TT would be a few dozens of seconds) so he should become Pogacar's equal (or almost) on that terrain.

 

[Peter von]

I'd agree but I guess it depends on how depleted the field already is at that point and how good Remco feels. If he feels good and is able to follow I think he won't be able to contain himself.

Having Cian as a sandbag to Pogi's wheel after Mount Kigali wouldn't be bad I guess but I think it's unrealistic to expect Cian to be able to follow Pogacar on Mount Kigali (especially as the only one?).

Only way people follow pogi is if the racing is too easy up until he attacks or if you provoke him into attacking at the wrong place.
Some will try to do the first and others will try for the latter.
But it’s very difficult to make a wcrr easy.
Also very difficult to force Pogi into a bad situation without making the race so hard he auto wins.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm really confused why Uijtdebroeks is part of the WC conversation cause nothing he's done suggests he's a top 30 rider in that race.

 

[Berflamand]

I'm really confused why Uijtdebroeks is part of the WC conversation cause nothing he's done suggests he's a top 30 rider in that race.

I'm just quoting Serge Pauwels (or at least the article with the Pauwels quotes).

Apparently Pauwels thinks Mount Kigali is a climb which should suit Uijtdebroeks really well but I'm also skeptical myself that Cian can play a major part in the race.

 

[Netserk]

Evenepoel gained like 0.5 s/km on Pogacar during last two flat/rolling time trials at the Tour so not sure where you took those 1-2 minutes from. Pogacar's form at the Tour is so high that he becomes a monster in time trials. It won't matter unless Evenepoel becomes as good climber as Pogacar.

It'd have to be even flatter than this year. And less technical.

 

[Netserk]

The amount of GTs that would be different with 50k extra ITTs is extremely overrated.

It would mostly change the pacing of the race and the dynamics in a few stages.

 

[houtdffan]

Indeed, as long as he loses 10min in the mountains on Pogacar/Vingegaard, it doesn't matter that he can take 1-2min back during a flat ITT.

He was a whole 3 minutes behind Vingo in 2024, and under2 minutes back heading into the final MTF. A couple of 50km ITT (not MTT) could have made the difference

 

[Red Rick]

Add 2 TTs to a race that already had 2 TTs.

It's turtles time trials all the way down

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Add 2 TTs to a race that already had 2 TTs.

I think a lot of things were bad with the GT routes from when I started watching cycling at the 2003 Tour, but I think it was pretty cool with 3 ITTs. The 2003 one had a 7k prologue and two flat ITTs of 47 km and 49 km. That would be cool to see also now I think.

(I dont really like TTTs, especially those really long ones from that era, so I think it's not something to hope for)

 

[SHAD0W93]

Evenepoel needs 15 minutes on TTs if he wants to have a realistic chance of winning the Tour against Pogacar. So we are talking about 450 km of TT (2 s/km)
The only difference is Pogacar would need to attack from far out just like Vingegaard did on Madeleine. If Jorgensen worked after the descent, Pogacar would gain (at least) 5 minutes on Onley and Lipowitz. In just one stage.

Tour has to just go back to the days when everyone rode solo with no draft or teammates.

 

[Netserk]

He was a whole 3 minutes behind Vingo in 2024, and under2 minutes back heading into the final MTF. A couple of 50km ITT (not MTT) could have made the difference

Change the two ITTs in that race to flat 50 km ones. Assume for simplicity that the gaps would have been twice that of the first ITT both times.

Evenepoel would still finish behind Vingegaard, despite the latter not riding against him primarily.

That's the best ever Evenepoel on a fantasy route with 100 km of flat ITT.

How much would Evenepoel have lost if Vingegaard rode with Pogi on the gravel? There's a couple of other times he could have raced differently if he needed to.

 

[houtdffan]

Change the two ITTs in that race to flat 50 km ones. Assume for simplicity that the gaps would have been twice that of the first ITT both times.

Evenepoel would still finish behind Vingegaard, despite the latter not riding against him primarily.

That's the best ever Evenepoel on a fantasy route with 100 km of flat ITT.

How much would Evenepoel have lost if Vingegaard rode with Pogi on the gravel? There's a couple of other times he could have raced differently if he needed to.

We don't know what would have happened. Time gaps usually balloon the longer a TT goes. Keeping it to within 20 seconds over 25km does not mean he keeps it to within 40 seconds over 50 km.

Plus, Vingo is quite inconsistent in the TT, as he showed in this year's TT

 

[Netserk]

We don't know what would have happened. Time gaps usually balloon the longer a TT goes. Keeping it to within 20 seconds over 25km does not mean he keeps it to within 40 seconds over 50 km.

Plus, Vingo is quite inconsistent in the TT, as he showed in this year's TT

He was also on his way to the victory of the longest ITT in the Tour of the past decade before he gifted it to Van Aert. This year is the only bad ITT he has ever ridden in the Tour.

By the same token, the MTT also showed that Evenepoel is quite inconsistent in ITTs.

 

[Berniece]

I'm really confused why Uijtdebroeks is part of the WC conversation cause nothing he's done suggests he's a top 30 rider in that race.

San Sebastián?