Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He was also on his way to the victory of the longest ITT in the Tour of the past decade before he gifted it to Van Aert. This year is the only bad ITT he has ever ridden in the Tour.

By the same token, the MTT also showed that Evenepoel is quite inconsistent in ITTs.

Vingegaard nearly crashed out of a corner in the last part, which tells me he was not holding back when he lost that TT to Van Aert. If he was holding back, then he very likely would have crashed in that corner and would not have won the race regardless.
Vingegaard has done subpar TT's other than the one this TDF. Only talking about the TDF TT's is cherry picking if you want to compare that to Evenepoel's consistency, who's previous bad TT (not top 10) was when he was sick and quit the race a day after.
If Vingegaard can stay within 30-40s of Evenepoel on a 50k flat TT, he should start doing the WCC TT as he would be on the podium. In a GT a lot also depends on when the TT is being held. Early first week, day 20... Even sprinters can do good flat TT's up to 10km. Doesn't mean you can extrapolate that to 20km, or 50, or 70...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel needs 15 minutes on TTs if he wants to have a realistic chance of winning the Tour against Pogacar. So we are talking about 450 km of TT (2 s/km)

He lost by less than 10 minutes last year. At this point i'm pretty sure if either of both riders still has more headroom to improve, it's going to be Evenepoel. If he can indeed improve overall, he would likely still need to make up too much time in TT's for it to be feasible. If he can improve on his 2024 level and go 4 minutes faster overall, he would still need 5 minutes in TT's so that's not happening anyway.

 

[Netserk]

Vingegaard nearly crashed out of a corner in the last part, which tells me he was not holding back when he lost that TT to Van Aert. If he was holding back, then he very likely would have crashed in that corner and would not have won the race regardless.
Vingegaard has done subpar TT's other than the one this TDF. Only talking about the TDF TT's is cherry picking if you want to compare that to Evenepoel's consistency, who's previous bad TT (not top 10) was when he was sick and quit the race a day after.
If Vingegaard can stay within 30-40s of Evenepoel on a 50k flat TT, he should start doing the WCC TT as he would be on the podium. In a GT a lot also depends on when the TT is being held. Early first week, day 20... Even sprinters can do good flat TT's up to 10km. Doesn't mean you can extrapolate that to 20km, or 50, or 70...

Vingegaard was faster than Pogi in all sectors until the last 800 m when he sat up. Yes, even in the last one including the descent where he nearly crashed. Had he ridden the last 800 m in the same time as Pogi, he'd have won it.

In my example, I assumed Vingegaard would lose 1'14" in each 50 km ITT. So I don't know where you get 30-40 seconds from.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Vingegaard was faster than Pogi in all sectors until the last 800 m when he sat up. Yes, even in the last one including the descent where he nearly crashed. Had he ridden the last 800 m in the same time as Pogi, he'd have won it.

In my example, I assumed Vingegaard would lose 1'14" in each 50 km ITT. So I don't know where you get 30-40 seconds from.

Sorry, i did not read the entire conversation. I saw the other poster, Houdffan, mention that and assumed that was what was being discussed.

 

[Extinction]

We saw two quite fast TTs in the Tour last two years and we saw what happened, I just stated the facts (not speculations - you like them, I know). Basically noone said Evenepoel's performances were subpar then. I dunno why you think Evenepoel wasn't in good form on those days. To have a realistic chance against Pogacar in the Tour he would need to hold his wheel almost every time (his advantage from a long TT would be a few dozens of seconds) so he should become Pogacar's equal (or almost) on that terrain.

The things is, every year, every race is different, where everyone can have his sans jour, even Pogi, who blew bigtime in the past. And if the legs aren't turning the day of a TT, it's rather a big difference between say 23 km and 55, no? What I'm reading are just excuses to not reinstate long TTs. It's all that can be done at this point to try and shuffle the cards a bit, plus it would allow Pog and Vingo to reiterate there prowess on all terrains, while offering new comparisons with the likes of Hinault and Merckx for whom 50+ km TTs were routine at the Tour. And they would generate interest in a race that over the last two years was doubtless done after the first mountains for a great many.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He lost by less than 10 minutes last year. At this point i'm pretty sure if either of both riders still has more headroom to improve, it's going to be Evenepoel. If he can indeed improve overall, he would likely still need to make up too much time in TT's for it to be feasible. If he can improve on his 2024 level and go 4 minutes faster overall, he would still need 5 minutes in TT's so that's not happening anyway.

Less than 10 minutes but Pogacar wasn't focused in taking 15 minutes on Remco.
You put a stage like Madeleine/Loze in the Tour 2024 (I'm saying Tour 2024 because Remco wasn't good this Tour) and Pogacar gains 4-5 minutes on Remco if Pogacar wanted to gain that time. This is also possible due to UAE's strenght, something Remco never had until now. We will see his climbing level next year, at least he will have a better team. I honestly would like to see him in the Giro because focusing on the Tour every year will make him not win another GT in his career (my bold prediction).
However, doing the Tour fits more with a Ardennes schedule where he is clearly the major threat to Pogacar. Tough decision IMO.

 

[houtdffan]

He was also on his way to the victory of the longest ITT in the Tour of the past decade before he gifted it to Van Aert. This year is the only bad ITT he has ever ridden in the Tour.

By the same token, the MTT also showed that Evenepoel is quite inconsistent in ITTs.

it showed Remco is inconsistent at CLIMBING

 

[Berniece]

You put a stage like Madeleine/Loze in the Tour 2024 (I'm saying Tour 2024 because Remco wasn't good this Tour) and Pogacar gains 4-5 minutes on Remco if Pogacar wanted to gain that time.

He took 13s on Onley that stage.

 

[Breh]

Yes, he was indeed racing to put as much as time as possible into Onley.

 

[Berniece]

Yes, he was indeed racing to put as much as time as possible into Onley.

I'm mostly saying that Peyrote doesn't know what might happen, he's just guessing and discrediting Evenepoel, as he does.

 

[AmRacer]

I'm mostly saying that Peyrote doesn't know what might happen, he's just guessing and discrediting Evenepoel, as he does.

You don't know what might happen either

 

[AlpRaid]

He rides at the front almost the entire stage and then drifts back as he should and then gets caught behind a crash. I hope he didn’t go down. He must stay out of crashes for a while now.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Yes, he was indeed racing to put as much as time as possible into Onley.

This.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You don't know what might happen either

That doesn't make Peyroteo's prediction any more valid.

 

[Peyroteo94]

That doesn't make Peyroteo's prediction any more valid.

As valid as some other opinions.
In fact, I can look to the Tour 2025 and say Remco needs more than 450 km of TT if he wants to have a chance of winning the Tour. Facts support more my opinion than other opinions I read here.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

As valid as some other opinions.
In fact, I can look to the Tour 2025 and say Remco needs more than 450 km of TT if he wants to have a chance of winning the Tour. Facts support more my opinion than other opinions I read here.

Yes, you do that. Look at the 2025 TDF. Good luck making predictions off that.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Yes, you do that. Look at the 2025 TDF. Good luck making predictions off that.

I didn't, first I was talking about Remco 2024 (the best version of him). But trying to ridicule my opinion just because they don't like some hard truths, it will not work. I'm free to post here and I can guarantee if I made a poll about how many TT km Remco needs to win a Tour, most neutral fans will say he needs way more than 200 km of TT against Pogacar. There is a guy here (a clear Remco's diehard fan) saying he can win with two 50km flat TTs but this is just pure nonsense and I don't see you saying how ridiculous is that.
In fact the only way Remco beats Pogacar or Vingegaard is like what @Red Rick said, he needs 0 mountain stages.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I didn't, first I was talking about Remco 2024 (the best version of him). But trying to ridicule my opinion just because they don't like some hard truths, it will not work. I'm free to post here and I can guarantee if I made a poll about how many TT km Remco needs to win a Tour, most neutral fans will say he needs way more than 200 km of TT against Pogacar. There is a guy here (a clear Remco's diehard fan) saying he can win with two 50km flat TTs but this is just pure nonsense and I don't see you saying how ridiculous is that.
In fact the only way Remco beats Pogacar or Vingegaard is like what @Red Rick said, he needs 0 mountain stages.

He could win the Tour with two 500km ITT's!

 

[AmRacer]

He could win the Tour with two 500km ITT's!

Lachlan Morton says Hello.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The things is, every year, every race is different, where everyone can have his sans jour, even Pogi, who blew bigtime in the past. And if the legs aren't turning the day of a TT, it's rather a big difference between say 23 km and 55, no? What I'm reading are just excuses to not reinstate long TTs. It's all that can be done at this point to try and shuffle the cards a bit, plus it would allow Pog and Vingo to reiterate there prowess on all terrains, while offering new comparisons with the likes of Hinault and Merckx for whom 50+ km TTs were routine at the Tour. And they would generate interest in a race that over the last two years was doubtless done after the first mountains for a great many.

This year was 33 km and look what happened. To me it's not a problem if they reintroduce 50 km TTs, it's their decision. Evenepoel can gain more time if they are dead flat of course but the fact is that most of France is not dead flat and some kind of rolling time trial is more likely to happen. Anyway, my main point is that a conversation about Evenepoel chances to win the Tour in the near future makes sense only if he gets really close to Pogacar in the mountains (so at this moment he still has a large mountain to climb).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel can gain more time if they are dead flat of course but the fact is that most of France is not dead flat and some kind of rolling time trial is more likely to happen.

The amount of flat stages boring me out of my mind the past 35 years beg to differ!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The amount of flat stages boring me out of my mind the past 35 years beg to differ!

The previous Tour director lacked imagination a bit. I choose looking at a topographic map

 

[Berniece]

I didn't, first I was talking about Remco 2024 (the best version of him). But trying to ridicule my opinion just because they don't like some hard truths, it will not work. I'm free to post here and I can guarantee if I made a poll about how many TT km Remco needs to win a Tour, most neutral fans will say he needs way more than 200 km of TT against Pogacar. There is a guy here (a clear Remco's diehard fan) saying he can win with two 50km flat TTs but this is just pure nonsense and I don't see you saying how ridiculous is that.
In fact the only way Remco beats Pogacar or Vingegaard is like what @Red Rick said, he needs 0 mountain stages.

He needs to get better in the mountains. No one is saying otherwise, but you have a different narrative to push.

 

[Berniece]

Exemplary teammate Evenepoel showed his class again.

We had Luke Lamperti with us, and I asked him if I should take the lead. He didn't want to at first, but then I told him that if I didn't help him, we wouldn't make it. That we wouldn't even have a chance to sprint.

So I just took the lead and rode until we caught those early breakaway riders. And after that, I was able to finish safely, despite another crash. So for me, it was a good day.

 

[Extinction]

This year was 33 km and look what happened. To me it's not a problem if they reintroduce 50 km TTs, it's their decision. Evenepoel can gain more time if they are dead flat of course but the fact is that most of France is not dead flat and some kind of rolling time trial is more likely to happen. Anyway, my main point is that a conversation about Evenepoel chances to win the Tour in the near future makes sense only if he gets really close to Pogacar in the mountains (so at this moment he still has a large mountain to climb).

I wasn't talking about Evenepole, even if this thread is about him, but simply bringing back 100 km of TT, not 33, and see what happens. If nothing changes, at least we get to see guys having to manage themselves over long distances, as in the past. I bet someone has a crisis. One thing is for sure, I lost interest in this year's Tour after Hautecam and that's not good.