Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Berniece]

I know it's not as technical, but on a 40+km route, there are still easily 20-30 seconds up for grabs, if not (just) from cornering, then maybe which side of the road runs smoother, adjusting pacing before a seemingly insignificant gradient etc. I swear, if he loses time on the downhills again...

I think there's enough time to do a recon of the race multiple times. I don't expect him to lose 20-30s in 3 U-turns

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think there's enough time to do a recon of the race multiple times. I don't expect him to lose 20-30s in 3 U-turns

No, not in 3 U- turns.

I doubt there are many riders who will be there earlier than thursday.

That's what Foss thought in 2022. If Pogacar is on his game, it doesn't matter whether he is there longer or not. It's still a potential 10-20-30 seconds that Evenepoel might be able to ride faster, which he might very well need if he wants to win. I also doubt someone who earns 4M a year can't afford a hotel for 5 nights.

 

[Berniece]

That's what Foss thought in 2022. If Pogacar is on his game, it doesn't matter whether he is there longer or not. It's still a potential 10-20-30 seconds that Evenepoel might be able to ride faster, which he might very well need if he wants to win. I also doubt someone who earns 4M a year can't afford a hotel for 5 nights.

I just don't see where Evenepoel is gaining 30 seconds on Pogacar by going a week early and knowing the course better.

 

[Andre]

the more times he rides the route the better he'll be familiar with the road

 

[Berflamand]

No, not in 3 U- turns.


That's what Foss thought in 2022. If Pogacar is on his game, it doesn't matter whether he is there longer or not. It's still a potential 10-20-30 seconds that Evenepoel might be able to ride faster, which he might very well need if he wants to win. I also doubt someone who earns 4M a year can't afford a hotel for 5 nights.

I mean, you have a point but I think you're over exaggerating it a bit.

In 2022 he was tired from the Vuelta and a significant jetlag which made the recons more difficult even in the last days leading up to the TT. On top of that it was a very technical TT.

This year he will (or at least should) have fresh legs and won't have any jetlag while the course looks very non-technical. I think the difference between having two full days of recon or let's say four to five full days of recon will be rather negligible on this course.

But ok if Pogi wins with a gap of less than 10-20 seconds it might have been worth the investment to go earlier. I guess we'll see on sunday.

 

[AmRacer]

No, not in 3 U- turns.


That's what Foss thought in 2022. If Pogacar is on his game, it doesn't matter whether he is there longer or not. It's still a potential 10-20-30 seconds that Evenepoel might be able to ride faster, which he might very well need if he wants to win. I also doubt someone who earns 4M a year can't afford a hotel for 5 nights.

Some riders want to stay at altitude as long as possible. The race isn't at sea level.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I mean, you have a point but I think you're over exaggerating it a bit.

In 2022 he was tired from the Vuelta and a significant jetlag which made the recons more difficult even in the last days leading up to the TT. On top of that it was a very technical TT.

This year he will (or at least should) have fresh legs and won't have any jetlag while the course looks very non-technical. I think the difference between having two full days of recon or let's say four to five full days of recon will be rather negligible on this course.

But ok if Pogi wins with a gap of less than 10-20 seconds it might have been worth the investment to go earlier. I guess we'll see on sunday.

This is a misrepresentation of the facts. How many times in his life has Foss beaten Evenepoel OR Küng OR Ganna in an ITT? Well that day he beat them all. Foss was the only one who was there two weeks in advance to recon the circuit, even before the circuit was closed off for traffic.
You can see how Evenepoel takes the corners that he took them a lot slower and safer than Foss did. I'm not the only one saying this, this was the general consensus by most analysts that Evenepoel lost that WCC in the corners to an inferior rider who had simply studied the course much better.
Evenepoel even stated right after the TT that he had never pushed better numbers in a TT before, which is why he was so surprised to be beaten by Foss.

 

[Berniece]

This is a misrepresentation of the facts. How many times in his life has Foss beaten Evenepoel OR Küng OR Ganna in an ITT? Well that day he beat them all. Foss was the only one who was there two weeks in advance to recon the circuit, even before the circuit was closed off for traffic.
You can see how Evenepoel takes the corners that he took them a lot slower and safer than Foss did. I'm not the only one saying this, this was the general consensus by most analysts that Evenepoel lost that WCC in the corners to an inferior rider who had simply studied the course much better.
Evenepoel even stated right after the TT that he had never pushed better numbers in a TT before, which is why he was so surprised to be beaten by Foss.

It’s also true that Evenepoel had a jet lag and wasn’t able to recon as well due to it

 

[Berflamand]

This is a misrepresentation of the facts. How many times in his life has Foss beaten Evenepoel OR Küng OR Ganna in an ITT? Well that day he beat them all. Foss was the only one who was there two weeks in advance to recon the circuit, even before the circuit was closed off for traffic.
You can see how Evenepoel takes the corners that he took them a lot slower and safer than Foss did. I'm not the only one saying this, this was the general consensus by most analysts that Evenepoel lost that WCC in the corners to an inferior rider who had simply studied the course much better.
Evenepoel even stated right after the TT that he had never pushed better numbers in a TT before, which is why he was so surprised to be beaten by Foss.

I agree with all this.

What facts did I misrepresent?

I was talking about the impact of the jetlag on his recons. IIRC he definitely was very tired that week and only found his power back on the race day.

 

[AmRacer]

I agree with all this.

What facts did I misrepresent?

I was talking about the impact of the jetlag on his recons. IIRC he definitely was very tired that week and only found his power back on the race day.

So he should've gone earlier then.

 

[Berflamand]

So he should've gone earlier then.

Ofcourse going earlier would be better.

I just think the impact on this type of course would be minimal, especially since he will have 2 full days to recon it without having to battle a jetlag.

Or are you talking about Wollongong? Because he was rather busy winning the Vuelta at that time.

 

[Berniece]

Ofcourse going earlier would be better.

I just think the impact on this type of course would be minimal, especially since he will have 2 full days to recon it without having to battle a jetlag.

2.5 days even, they do another recon in the morning normally.

 

[yaco]

So he should've gone earlier then.

He flew out to Australia either on the night of his Vuelta victory or the next day with a bunch of Belgian journalists.

 

[KoopaCycling]

If it helps, Van der poel practised a whole week on the WC MTB terrain. In the end the legs weren't there.
So as important as recon can be, the legs comes first anyways.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree with all this.

What facts did I misrepresent?

I was talking about the impact of the jetlag on his recons. IIRC he definitely was very tired that week and only found his power back on the race day.

The point was not that he should have done more recon back then. He didn't have the time. The point is that Foss did have the time and beat Evenepoel, Küng and Ganna because of it. And Evenepoel did have the time now. But he didn't, again.

The reason why he didn't win in Wollongong was not him being jetlagged, his numbers were still excellent, it was him not knowing the course.

 

[Berniece]

The point was not that he should have done more recon back then. He didn't have the time. The point is that Foss did have the time and beat Evenepoel, Küng and Ganna because of it. And Evenepoel did have the time now. But he didn't, again.

The reason why he didn't win in Wollongong was not him being jetlagged, his numbers were still excellent, it was him not knowing the course.

And he didn’t know the course because of jet lag

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And he didn’t know the course because of jet lag

Because there was not enough time regardless. Had there have been more time, the jetlag wouldn't have mattered. Even without the jetlag he wouldn't have had nearly as much time to recon the course as Foss.

He did have the time now.

 

[Berniece]

Because there was not enough time regardless. Had there have been more time, the jetlag wouldn't have mattered. Even without the jetlag he wouldn't have had nearly as much time to recon the course as Foss.

He did have the time now.

Yes, I agree. But this time due to the course not being as technical, there probably is enough time.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yes, I agree. But this time due to the course not being as technical, there probably is enough time.

I'm not saying he should have gone 2 weeks earlier, but 2 days for 40+km is barely enough for a regular recon. While corners may be fewer, there is more to it than just cornering. Crashing in a corner with gravel, getting a puncture on a pothole, holding back just that tiny fraction in the downhill...

 

[Berniece]

I'm not saying he should have gone 2 weeks earlier, but 2 days for 40+km is barely enough for a regular recon. While corners may be fewer, there is more to it than just cornering. Crashing in a corner with gravel, getting a puncture on a pothole, holding back just that tiny fraction in the downhill...

All true, and one can wonder that if the WC was in Europe he might have gone earlier. I still think he has enough time for recon, but we'll see in a couple of days.

 

[Berniece]

I'm not saying he should have gone 2 weeks earlier, but 2 days for 40+km is barely enough for a regular recon. While corners may be fewer, there is more to it than just cornering. Crashing in a corner with gravel, getting a puncture on a pothole, holding back just that tiny fraction in the downhill...

Also apparently it's purely a financial decision. Leaving 1-2 days early with 1 staff member for 5-10K is nothing for him if that improves his chances.

In Kigali, we've chosen to keep the riders' stay as short as possible. While other World Championships have riders traveling four or even five days before their race, we're now assuming race day minus three.

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/sport/wielrennen/wordt-dit-een-wk-extra-small-geldgebrek-doet-bijna-alle-toplanden-snoeien-in-hun-teams-voor-kigali/90636444.html

 

[Berflamand]

Talking about having enough time for recons, the EC TT is going to be especially problematic.

Apparently Remco's flying back from Rwanda on monday evening, landing in Marseille on tuesday morning. When he reaches the Belgian team hotel it will already be afternoon and he will only have that afternoon (and the morning of the race) to do a recon, all while probably being tired from his night flight.

And then he's going to have to battle guys like Ganna who are focussing exclusively on the EC TT.

I guess this strengthens Logic's point that he should have gone sooner to Rwanda because for the WC TT he actually had the time to do it.

 

[Berflamand]

Just had a look at the parcours of the EC TT and it also looks very straightforward and non-technical so I guess there's that.

 

[Berniece]

Just had a look at the parcours of the EC TT and it also looks very straightforward and non-technical so I guess there's that.

Yeah, it's not as important and should suit him better. Even with a worse recon he should be very close to a win.

 

[Berflamand]

Yeah, it's not as important and should suit him better. Even with a worse recon he should be very close to a win.

In normal circumstances I would agree but so close after the WC, with the long transfer and night flight and against a fresh Ganna (and probably Tarling) I'm not so sure.