Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Flat section is long enough that it should favor Evenepoel on the circuit as a whole. Shouldn't be any long solo shenanigans for Pogacar.

I'm not expecting a long solo either, the race should be more tight, maybe Pog vs Evenepoel sprint indeed. Plus no need to cook himself one week after Rwanda solo and one week before Lombardy (which remains a top goal).

 

[Berniece]

I'm not expecting a long solo either, the race should be more tight, maybe Pog vs Evenepoel sprint indeed. Plus no need to cook himself one week after Rwanda solo and one week before Lombardy (which remains a top goal).

Do you think he feels these efforts a week later? Obviously there was PR that he felt in AGR, but not sure he will feel WC at UEC or UEC at Lombardia even if he goes all out.

 

[Berniece]

Getting ready for UEC ITT wearing a new WC ITT jersey specifically made with Belgian national teams sponsors.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Do you think he feels these efforts a week later? Obviously there was PR that he felt in AGR, but not sure he will feel WC at UEC or UEC at Lombardia even if he goes all out.

I don't know. Flandres + Roubaix was a monster effort as he was riding those races a bloc. In Africa there was only one long race but the conditions were difficult so maybe it was more energy sapping than a standard monument. I would say he should go a bit easier at the EC (short-range attack, maybe a sprint vs Remco or Vingo) and then obviously hit hard in Lombardy (history can be made there: 5th consecutive win and 10th monument).

 

[Berniece]

I don't know. Flandres + Roubaix was a monster effort as he was riding those races a bloc. In Africa there was only one long race but the conditions were difficult so maybe it was more energy sapping than a standard monument. I would say he should go a bit easier at the EC (short-range attack, maybe a sprint vs Remco or Vingo) and then obviously hit hard in Lombardy (history can be made there: 5th consecutive win and 10th monument).

Could be that WC RR + UEC RR will be his bloc. WC RR was indeed already a monster effort. If the others make it hard, maybe UEC RR will be too. But it won't matter for Lombardia I think because everyone that has a shot at Lombardia (besides Roglic) is probably riding UEC RR too. So it's going to be hard for everyone, and everyone will suffer, and everyone will recover the same. So Pogacar should still be the heavy favourite. He can just ride away on Passo di Ganda, take 30-60s on the top, and cruise home safely.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Could be that WC RR + UEC RR will be his bloc. WC RR was indeed already a monster effort. If the others make it hard, maybe UEC RR will be too. But it won't matter for Lombardia I think because everyone that has a shot at Lombardia (besides Roglic) is probably riding UEC RR too. So it's going to be hard for everyone, and everyone will suffer, and everyone will recover the same. So Pogacar should still be the heavy favourite. He can just ride away on Passo di Ganda, take 30-60s on the top, and cruise home safely.

Lombardia is the easiest monument for Pogacar to win, even in mediocre form he managed to win it. Plus he has the team to make it hard. But I don't think it's worth going too hard one week before at the EC.

He may be tempted for another yolo attack with 70 kms to go or maybe Vingegaard will attack there and provoke Pog to react. Still, there's plenty of flat kilometers later and Evenepoel in his current form can catch up. Maybe better to save shots for the last two rounds.

 

[Berniece]

Lombardia is the easiest monument for Pogacar to win, even in mediocre form he managed to win it. Plus he has the team to make it hard.

As for the EC he may be tempted for another yolo attack with 70 kms to go or maybe Vingegaard will attack there and provoke Pog to react. Still, there's plenty of flat kilometers later and Evenepoel in his current form can catch up. Maybe better to save shots for the last two rounds.

I first want to see if he's able to drop Evenepoel on Saint Romain de Lerps. I keep my believe that Evenepoel would not have dropped on Mount Kigali without the saddle issues. Maybe later, but not on Mount Kigali.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I first want to see if he's able to drop Evenepoel on Saint Romain de Lerps. I keep my believe that Evenepoel would not have dropped on Mount Kigali without the saddle issues. Maybe later, but not on Mount Kigali.

The climb is a w/kg test. I think he could drop anyone there (maybe except peak Vingegaard) if he wanted but does it make sense for the rest of the race? I'm not sure he wanted to drop everyone on Mont Kigali (maybe just wanted to make it very hard and counted for some cooperation in a small group) and according to his own words he didn't expect to be solo so early.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't know. Flandres + Roubaix was a monster effort as he was riding those races a bloc. In Africa there was only one long race but the conditions were difficult so maybe it was more energy sapping than a standard monument. I would say he should go a bit easier at the EC (short-range attack, maybe a sprint vs Remco or Vingo) and then obviously hit hard in Lombardy (history can be made there: 5th consecutive win and 10th monument).

When has Pogacar ever underperformed in a big target race no matter fatigue? Tokyo is literally the only time. And he got 3rd in that one.

 

[Berniece]

The climb is a w/kg test. I think he could drop anyone there (maybe except peak Vingegaard) if he wanted but does it make sense for the rest of the race? I'm not sure he wanted to drop everyone on Mont Kigali (maybe just wanted to make it very hard and counted for some cooperation in a small group) and according to his own words he didn't expect to be solo so early.

I don't know how much more Pogacar had left when he went. I only know that Evenepoel would be able to follow the attack he actually did on Mount Kigali, in normal circumstances.

When it comes to UEC RR. I doubt Pogacar will go all out on Saint Romain de Lerps if he thinks he would be solo. Because like you said, a lot of flat sections, and 70km's from the top is a long way to go. So he might just accelerate to get a decent group with him.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

When has Pogacar ever underperformed in a big target race no matter fatigue? Tokyo is literally the only time. And he got 3rd in that one.

He was dead after the WC in 2023 but still managed 3rd there. TBH I can't remember any big one-day race, in which he really undeperformed (maybe except WC 2022).

 

[AmRacer]

I don't know how much more Pogacar had left when he went. I only know that Evenepoel would be able to follow the attack he actually did on Mount Kigali, in normal circumstances.

When it comes to UEC RR. I doubt Pogacar will go all out on Saint Romain de Lerps if he thinks he would be solo. Because like you said, a lot of flat sections, and 70km's from the top is a long way to go. So he might just accelerate to get a decent group with him.

It wasn't an out attack. He just increased the pace and only Ayuso and Toro could follow.

 

[houtdffan]

No. Maybe during UEC RR we get the race that was stolen from us during the WC RR

we would have needed blue flags had Remco not had the mechanical.

It would have been funny to see them lapping most of the peloton

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

@Berniece why do you think he continued seated on Mount Kigali, given his saddle issues and the fact that everyone else around him was out of the saddle? It’s tough to make sense of that.

 

[Berniece]

@Berniece why do you think he continued seated on Mount Kigali, given his saddle issues and the fact that everyone else around him was out of the saddle? It’s tough to make sense of that.

How many times have you seen Evenepoel do a sustained effort on his pedals? He isn't Contador. Did he need to ride 5km's standing up? He started on his saddle probably hoping it would be fine, but once more effort need to be made he got cramps. Which means there's even less chance to stand up on your pedals.

Are you saying all of it was made up and there were really 40 riders that were just better on that part of the climb?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

How many times have you seen Evenepoel do a sustained effort on his pedals? He isn't Contador. Did he need to ride 5km's standing up? He started on his saddle probably hoping it would be fine, but once more effort need to be made he got cramps. Which means there's even less chance to stand up on your pedals.

Are you saying all of it was made up and there were really 40 riders that were just better on that part of the climb?

Not at all. I’m saying that he might have magnified a small issue, spiraled out of mental control, and made poor decisions that caused the issue to have a significantly bigger impact than it should have. I remember watching Pinot go to pieces in the Tour in the mid 2010s and screaming at the tv because he was blowing his chances out of frustration (I was cheering for him), and I think something similar happened. Watch at 104km to go. Seems like he should have stood up there and pushed to the top like others vs stay in an uncomfortable position.

Also, I was just thinking about AGR and LBL. The difference? The first has many short punchy climbs; the second has longer, tougher climbs. Remco did much better of AGR than on LBL. On the big climb he was 20th or so over the top. AGR he was a world beater. Worlds? Over the circuits with short climbs he was a world beater; over Mt. Kigali he crossed the line 20th or so wheel…

All things considered, gold/silver was as good an outcome as anyone has ever had at Worlds. Maybe in a different world he prioritized the RR in all his prep, barely wins the ITT, and manages to nip Pogi in the RR? Maybe. But I think his focus on the ITT, his opponent in Tadej, and his lack of emotional control were insurmountable barriers. Again, I am not hating on Remco, though I know it’s fashionable in these boards to split everyone into +/- tribes. Just analyzing what was probably the most fascinating aspect of the race, and probably the most interesting character in the sport.

 

[Eagle_Alps]

It would have been funny to see them lapping most of the peloton

All of them. No bronze medalist. 😆

 

[AlpRaid]

When has Pogacar ever underperformed in a big target race no matter fatigue? Tokyo is literally the only time. And he got 3rd in that one.

2021 Euros (got dropped by Remco and Colbrelli)
2022 Worlds (between a win in Montreal and a win in Lombardia)

but that was before the 2024 transformation into simply unbeatable.

 

[Berniece]

Not at all. I’m saying that he might have magnified a small issue, spiraled out of mental control, and made poor decisions that caused the issue to have a significantly bigger impact than it should have. Watch at 104km to go. Seems like he should have stood up there and pushed to the top like others vs stay in an uncomfortable position.

Also, I was just thinking about AGR and LBL. The difference? The first has many short punchy climbs; the second has longer, tougher climbs. Remco did much better of AGR than on LBL. On the big climb he was 20th or so over the top. AGR he was a world beater. Worlds? Over the circuits with short climbs he was a world beater; over Mt. Kigali he crossed the line 20th or so wheel…

I think the first time it was completely justified, and not a mental issue. The second time though, after changing bikes. That was a combination of mentally thinking there's an issue when there isn't combined with not giving his body enough time to adjust. Then he exploded.

I don't use AGR/LBL as comparison. LBL clearly showed they wanted to peak too quickly, too hard. Let's wait for UEC RR to draw conclusions. Those climbs are harder than Mount Kigali. If he is passed by 20 riders again, I agree with you.

 

[Oldman]

Or?

Another 100 posts sorting out Remco's reactions to his loss? He should be able to win it and that situation isn't lightening the self-pressure that undoes some of his best days.

 

[AlpRaid]

the only way for remco to win the euro RR would be to use the strength of the Belgian team (have other Belgians ahead, forcing Pog to make choices as to when he chases.

it would also require remco to think like a lesser rider for once, not let his ego make him act as if he were co-favorite. do not make your team work, unless it is to put someone ahead, and don't relay pog if you end up in a small group with him. unfortunately his ego (for both good and bad) will not let him act that way.

 

[Berniece]

the only way for remco to win the euro RR would be to use the strength of the Belgian team (have other Belgians ahead, forcing Pog to make choices as to when he chases.

it would also require remco to think like a lesser rider for once, not let his ego make him act as if he were co-favorite. do not make your team work, unless it is to put someone ahead, and don't relay pog if you end up in a small group with him. unfortunately his ego (for both good and bad) will not let him act that way.

Or just be able to follow Pogacar, cook him on the flat sections and win the sprint?

 

[AmRacer]

the only way for remco to win the euro RR would be to use the strength of the Belgian team (have other Belgians ahead, forcing Pog to make choices as to when he chases.

it would also require remco to think like a lesser rider for once, not let his ego make him act as if he were co-favorite. do not make your team work, unless it is to put someone ahead, and don't relay pog if you end up in a small group with him. unfortunately his ego (for both good and bad) will not let him act that way.

Maybe Pogi just marking Remco and letting another Belgian win.

 

[AmRacer]

Or just be able to follow Pogacar, cook him on the flat sections and win the sprint?

None of that will happen.

 

[Jan the Man]

Or just be able to follow Pogacar, cook him on the flat sections and win the sprint?

I don’t understand what you mean by cook him on the flat. If he is putting effort on the flat how does he win the sprint if he’s not dropped him as presumably to try and cook him he’d be doing most of the work making him more fatigued for a sprint?