Evenepoel is also the type of rider that if he feels the risk is too high for the reward, he might not go as fast. So chances of crashing might be lower.
You can't know that beforehand. How are you feeling, how do the other riders feel. If UAE goes hard early again, risk might be low, because Evenepoel will be one of the last ones in the wheel of Pogacar. He could take it easy and still finish on the podium.