Question The Tour 2025 without the mutants: who would win?

[Red Rick]

Nah, that's why I actually voted for Roglic. I still have doubts, he had like zillion crashes during the Giro + some antibiotics later.

I'm more worried about the first 2 weeks of the TdF than the Giro injuries.

according to the bookmakers it is
Evenepoel
then Almeida
then Roglic / Lipowitz.

Bookmakers follow bets, and bets follow dumb fan/media narratives.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Simon yates

 

[Rackham]

I feel like Rog's Vuelta 2024 is underappreciated. I'm not going to pretend he's at Pog's level (he's not, no one is) but his performances on the Puerto de Ancares and Moncalvillo were up there with some of the best climbing performances he's ever done.

I seriously doubt the man goes from that to washed in 9 months.

 

[Red Rick]

I feel like Rog's Vuelta 2024 is underappreciated. I'm not going to pretend he's at Pog's level (he's not, no one is) but his performances on the Puerto de Ancares and Moncalvillo were up there with some of the best climbing performances he's ever done.

I seriously doubt the man goes from that to washed in 9 months.

People can think Evenepoel is the #3 GT rider in the world, like okay, I think Rog vs Evenepoel would be a more interesting battle than Pogacar vs Vingegaard this year.

But the amount of people putting Almeida at a higher level or saying Lipowitz should lead over Roglic is downright insanity and it basically shows you how big the narratives have been against Rog for a long time.

 

[Cookster15]

If we're going to say riders are at their best level (and infer that Evenepoel has his 2024 TdF climbing form again despite his travails in the Dauphiné), then it's only fair that we don't send Rog to the nursing home and age him suddenly just to ensure he's beaten.

IMO he won't have suddenly aged since March and Catalunya so I think he's fine - for the time being at least.

I wasn’t saying that. And obviously week long stage races are not grand tours. We don’t know right now. Just pointing out Roglic might decline sooner than Remco all else being equal. I hope it won’t be this year.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I feel like Rog's Vuelta 2024 is underappreciated. I'm not going to pretend he's at Pog's level (he's not, no one is) but his performances on the Puerto de Ancares and Moncalvillo were up there with some of the best climbing performances he's ever done.

I seriously doubt the man goes from that to washed in 9 months.

Those are not really hard mountain stages IMHO. He still is the third best in these finishes but he suffers more in long mountains finishes.

 

[Rackham]

Those are not really hard mountain stages IMHO. He still is the third best in these finishes but he suffers more in long mountains finishes.

Luckily for Rog, Gouvenou and Prudhomme seem averse to having 200km+ multi col mountain stages in the Tour these days.

Rog's weakness isn't the length a climb per se, it's the length of the stage. To no one's surprise, the stage he finally exploded on in the recent Giro with all his bruises and injuries was a 218km slog.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think it's very close between Evenepoel and Almeida. Then Roglic, Lipowitz and Jorgenson.

 

[fenns]

according to the bookmakers it is
Evenepoel
then Almeida
then Roglic / Lipowitz.

that's with Almeida riding for Pogacar

I've gone with Remco because you have to factor-in Roglic likelihood of crashing out.