Question The Tour 2025 without the mutants: who would win?

[Red Rick]

Nah, that's why I actually voted for Roglic. I still have doubts, he had like zillion crashes during the Giro + some antibiotics later.

I'm more worried about the first 2 weeks of the TdF than the Giro injuries.

according to the bookmakers it is
Evenepoel
then Almeida
then Roglic / Lipowitz.

Bookmakers follow bets, and bets follow dumb fan/media narratives.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Simon yates

 

[Rackham]

I feel like Rog's Vuelta 2024 is underappreciated. I'm not going to pretend he's at Pog's level (he's not, no one is) but his performances on the Puerto de Ancares and Moncalvillo were up there with some of the best climbing performances he's ever done.

I seriously doubt the man goes from that to washed in 9 months.

 

[Red Rick]

I feel like Rog's Vuelta 2024 is underappreciated. I'm not going to pretend he's at Pog's level (he's not, no one is) but his performances on the Puerto de Ancares and Moncalvillo were up there with some of the best climbing performances he's ever done.

I seriously doubt the man goes from that to washed in 9 months.

People can think Evenepoel is the #3 GT rider in the world, like okay, I think Rog vs Evenepoel would be a more interesting battle than Pogacar vs Vingegaard this year.

But the amount of people putting Almeida at a higher level or saying Lipowitz should lead over Roglic is downright insanity and it basically shows you how big the narratives have been against Rog for a long time.

 

[Cookster15]

If we're going to say riders are at their best level (and infer that Evenepoel has his 2024 TdF climbing form again despite his travails in the Dauphiné), then it's only fair that we don't send Rog to the nursing home and age him suddenly just to ensure he's beaten.

IMO he won't have suddenly aged since March and Catalunya so I think he's fine - for the time being at least.

I wasn’t saying that. And obviously week long stage races are not grand tours. We don’t know right now. Just pointing out Roglic might decline sooner than Remco all else being equal. I hope it won’t be this year.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I feel like Rog's Vuelta 2024 is underappreciated. I'm not going to pretend he's at Pog's level (he's not, no one is) but his performances on the Puerto de Ancares and Moncalvillo were up there with some of the best climbing performances he's ever done.

I seriously doubt the man goes from that to washed in 9 months.

Those are not really hard mountain stages IMHO. He still is the third best in these finishes but he suffers more in long mountains finishes.

 

[Rackham]

Those are not really hard mountain stages IMHO. He still is the third best in these finishes but he suffers more in long mountains finishes.

Luckily for Rog, Gouvenou and Prudhomme seem averse to having 200km+ multi col mountain stages in the Tour these days.

Rog's weakness isn't the length a climb per se, it's the length of the stage. To no one's surprise, the stage he finally exploded on in the recent Giro with all his bruises and injuries was a 218km slog.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think it's very close between Evenepoel and Almeida. Then Roglic, Lipowitz and Jorgenson.

 

[fenns]

according to the bookmakers it is
Evenepoel
then Almeida
then Roglic / Lipowitz.

that's with Almeida riding for Pogacar

I've gone with Remco because you have to factor-in Roglic likelihood of crashing out.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Froome

 

[hfer07]

Sorry, but Almeida is already bordering "mutant stage".......

 

[Rackham]

Sorry, but Almeida is already bordering "mutant stage".......

He is not.

He's done well to win what he's won but numbers are another matter. He's never done mutant performances and I'll blaspheme here by saying in my humble opiniated opinion Juan Ayuso is better than Almeida.

 

[KZD]

He is not.

He's done well to win what he's won but numbers are another matter. He's never done mutant performances and I'll blaspheme here by saying in my humble opiniated opinion Juan Ayuso is better than Almeida.

I don't see how Ayuso can be better than Almeida at the moment. Even if we just focus on w/kg, Almeida has produced some impressive performances in the Tour de Suisse for two years in a row, while Ayuso's best performance was in Tirreno's MTF when he did something like 6.8 w/kg on a 20 minute climb but barely but any time on someone like Pidcock.

Then, there is the issue of durability, Ayuso just seems a bit too fragile has abandoned his last two Grand Tours and while Almeida also abandoned the last GT that he road, he has been able to produce bigger results lately, like that 4th place in the Tour and now the 3 wins streak in one week stage races.

Back to the topic of this poll, I voted Almeida. He is in great shape, he is more of a killer than before and while I don't think he is a better rider than Remco or Roglič, he has a better record at avoiding trouble during a Grand Tour.

 

[TrekCyclist]

Even if you say that probability that Roglic is the "best of the rest" is 50% (which is too high imho), you have still to multiply with the probability of 50% that he does not DNF. Which would bring you to 25%.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Even if you say that probability that Roglic is the "best of the rest" is 50% (which is too high imho), you have still to multiply with the probability of 50% that he does not DNF. Which would bring you to 25%.

You didn't include the scenario of Roglic winning while not being the best of the rest (due to his rival(s) misfortunes). This should add a few %.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see how Ayuso can be better than Almeida at the moment. Even if we just focus on w/kg, Almeida has produced some impressive performances in the Tour de Suisse for two years in a row, while Ayuso's best performance was in Tirreno's MTF when he did something like 6.8 w/kg on a 20 minute climb but barely but any time on someone like Pidcock.

Then, there is the issue of durability, Ayuso just seems a bit too fragile has abandoned his last two Grand Tours and while Almeida also abandoned the last GT that he road, he has been able to produce bigger results lately, like that 4th place in the Tour and now the 3 wins streak in one week stage races.

Back to the topic of this poll, I voted Almeida. He is in great shape, he is more of a killer than before and while I don't think he is a better rider than Remco or Roglič, he has a better record at avoiding trouble during a Grand Tour.

Meanwhile Almeida barely takes time on Felix "I had bad legs I couldn't sustain my watts" Gall

 

[Peyroteo94]

Meanwhile Almeida barely takes time on Felix "I had bad legs I couldn't sustain my watts" Gall

What time did Ayuso put on his rivals in the Giro? Oh wait, he exploded before coming home.

 

[Rackham]

What time did Ayuso put on his rivals in the Giro? Oh wait, he exploded before coming home.

He got sick and went home. Rog got sick and went home.

You know there's a real funny habit in cycling fandom circles to extrapolate best performances of xyz riders versus crocked performances of their rivals and draw a conclusion based on that.

What I'm seeing is in Itzulia, Romandie or Suisse, Almeida faced lower tier rivals and didn't exactly drop the hammer in the w/kg department. Now that's not a critique per se (you beat what's in front of you and the time gap doesn't matter much anyway) but there's a point where it's just overhyping to suddenly place Almeida as third favorite for the Tour.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He got sick and went home. Rog got sick and went home.

You know there's a real funny habit in cycling fandom circles to extrapolate best performances of xyz riders versus crocked performances of their rivals and draw a conclusion based on that.

What I'm seeing is in Itzulia, Romandie or Suisse, Almeida faced lower tier rivals and didn't exactly drop the hammer in the w/kg department. Now that's not a critique per se (you beat what's in front of you and the time gap doesn't matter much anyway) but there's a point where it's just overhyping to suddenly place Almeida as third favorite for the Tour.

He still beat those guys, specially Del Toro who was almost winning the Giro 6 weeks later.
Beat Vingegaard twice. What did Ayuso? Won a TA against Ganna? Please...
Of course Almeida is not an alien and doesn't deliver alien performances but let's not pretend Ayuso is better (right now) when his performances in GTs have been a disaster.

 

[Red Rick]

What time did Ayuso put on his rivals in the Giro? Oh wait, he exploded before coming home.

What has Almeida done in Grand Tours lately? Get dropped, sick or go home?

Ayuso winning the sole MTF before he crashed and got sick is more than Almeida has ever done in a GT. Best he's done is win a MTF in a Giro where he was the clear third wheel in the end and got beaten by Geriatric Thomas