Miguel Indurain, every year apart from 91 was the same, first TT before the Tour, Big Mig hammers everyone, in theory, he could have lost it in the mountains but he never did, everyone knew once Big Mig won the TT, the Tour was over in practice.
Then Lance was the same, first TT or mountain stage, Lance would put the hammer down, in theory a long way to go but the race was always won by Lance, what about the year he caught Ullrich in the prologue, I remember people saying the Tour was over, first day. Only year any different was 03.
When there are a number of potential winners, 87-90/96-99 and 06-08, there has been more potential for changes I agree. But Astana are so dominant this year, it will be the biggest shock in cycling ever if one of them dont win. Logical no. When there is one team/rider dominant in the Tour, it is always the same. That is why neither Big Migs or Lances Tour victories are regarded by CYCLING FANS as great Tours. I tell you what, you find me evidence of a major threat to Lance or Mig once they landed that first knockout punch and I will agree with you that the Tour is still wide open.
As each for stage being a classic, you are calling me classic, your a joke, I have lost count of the times breaks have gone in the first week only to be caught by sprinters teams, middle week/third weeks, groups of non-GC contenders go away, usually get huge gaps and battle out the win, only stages are usually interesting are mountain stages, definitely not on the same level as a Sping classic. TDF stage equal to Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, I dont think so.
My point on the TTT is that it always elimiates potential contenders, dont tell me it wouldnt be more fun if Evans, Sastre, Menchov were all within 1-1.30 of Astana going into the mountains, might get the same result but the suspense would last longer. I dont have favourite riders so I like the most competitive race I can watch. The defending champion, runner-up and Giro champion being eliminated after 4 stages is not my idea of excitement.