All jokes aside, there's clearly an arms race going on right now. Porco would've been left with 3 in a group of 6 in previous years when their last domestique (Vilela) hit the front. Yesterday was a very different picture. It's surprising to see this arms race being won by Vidal Fita's team instead of Efapel, but it looks like yout theory about "Volta age" still stands correct.
I always think that the thing with "Volta age" is more that riders who are the kind of age of, say, Moreira, still harbour some optimism that they have a chance of getting out to a wider scene. Moreira did OK in his two years with Caja Rural, but not great, but he had a year on the Spanish amateur scene and was clearly good enough to get a new pro deal. He's clearly stepped up a gear (pun intended) this year, but he's still young enough (only just turned 26 a couple of weeks ago) that somebody might see something in him to promote back to the higher ranks. This ties with the age at which Amaro Antunes hit thermonuclear with W52 after years of being not-quite-living-up-to-the-promise. But the way the Volta runs, you get a lot of the more promising people who can get into the mix at peak cycling ages - Brandão hitting the GC battle at 25, Figueiredo likewise, João Rodrigues - and the occasional rider who can get out just about young enough to make a decent niche for themselves at a higher level - Délio Fernández for example - but the real "spirit of the Volta" seems to come from those riders who have given up the hope of promotion and go ballistic at this level into their 30s.
I mean, it's no longer the Puerto exiles that it used to be, and the other issue is that Spanish cycling has recovered from the early 2010s doldrums financially as well so there are now multiple Spanish ProContis and different options for Spanish riders, other than it being Movistar, Caja Rural or bust as it was at the lowest point, so the quality of the Spanish imports being brought in has gone down, at least among younger riders. The "Volta age" people, although we joke about the 40-year-olds, more refers to those who suddenly leap up in level in their early 30s, as a final hail mary for their career. And some of them don't just do it in Portugal, but a lot of them do. The kind of guys we're thinking of are those like, say:
- David Belda - bouncing around amateur teams until 28, after 3 years on a Continental team went nuts at 31 in 2014, spent 2 years winning small races, failed riding outside of Iberia and then tested positive at 34
- Raúl Alarcón - returned to Spanish amateur scene from 22-25, won a stage of the Volta then was in Portugal doing little of note for several years before suddenly turning into an unstoppable animal at 31, eventual reign of terror stopped by biopass violations at 33, almost as soon as W52 went ProConti.
- Gustavo César Veloso - pretty useful rider in his late 20s for Xacobeo-Galicía (albeit not at a point when their reputation was very good), but was already in his 30s when he re-appeared in Portugal, dominant through mid-30s
- Vicente García de Mateos - fairly young by these standards, nevertheless a fairly nondescript amateur in Spain into his mid-20s, a couple of good results in Japan at 26, returned to Portugal at 27, started being a contender at 29, had a biopassport violation at 30. Now 32, he has little hope of breaking out beyond the Portuguese domestic scene à la Délio.
- Alejandro Marque - being from Galicia but not part of Xacobeo, he's essentially spent his whole career in Portugal, but he never really played any GC role during the post-Puerto days. Suddenly at 31 he emerged to win the GC, having only once even made the top 20-30 riders before and usually targeted the ITTs for stage wins. Got screwed by Movistar due to the Euskaltel collapse and a disputed test giving them the opportunity to swap out his contract for a cut-price flyer on Igor Antón. Spent his mid-30s contesting the Portuguese GC.
Before this generation, the advanced age of the Portuguese péloton's stars was more to do with them being the remnants of yesteryear, the Puerto exiles that weren't young enough to protect or strong enough for it to slide off them, so people like David Blanco, David Bernabéu, Tino Zaballa and others who were already at least late 20s when it hit so would then ride on with the better salaries available in Portugal at the time. Then the collapses of several Spanish teams in short order meant a lot of riders too old to be appealing projects for overseas teams, but too young to give up the ghost on their career, led to their dispersal all over - this is where you get that Spanish contingent like José Vicente Toribio, Benjamí Prades, Edu Prades, Ion Aberasturi, Marcos García and Salvador Guardiola in Japan, and the ones like Juanjo Oroz riding in Chile, Javier Sardá in Vietnam, Diego Milán becoming a Dominican citizen and so on - and Portugal, being close to home and with an established scene, was a logical stopping point. You get quite a few who go at a reasonable age - round about where Moreira is now - but you need to go to the next level to compete in A Grandissima. Some stop short - Arkaitz Durán, for example, annihilated the Spanish amateur calendar, but never replicated that with Efapel - and others take a few years to decide if they're going to go to that next level, like Belda and Alarcón. Others make a rod for their own backs - Alberto Gallego went at 25 from nothingburger Spanish amateur to climbing with the guys like Quintana and Contador in the Route du Sud and being all over the Volta, young enough to merit a flyer from Caja Rural but tested positive within three days - but is now back, 30 years old and persona non grata pretty much anywhere other than... the team who had him back when he was achieving those results the first time round.
The Portuguese teams do have a history of taking flyers on the occasional successful mid-20s Spanish amateur who isn't getting a pro ride elsewhere, so they remain a viable alternative for those riders. But to compete at the Volta, you have to compete with several 30-something pros who either made it big and are slumming it in the twilight of their careers, or are career nearly-men who now have nothing left but eleven days in August to compete for. You can't compete with those guys unless you're supremely talented (in which case you often would have been plucked out of Portugal before such a point anyway, like Rui Costa or João Almeida, and although Movistar now gives us a chance to view things a bit more objectively, the last time we had a team of the top level here was Lampre in the early 2010s), and let's face it, most of these riders who are still in the amateur scene at 25-26 are likely not at that kind of level to naturally produce that kind of wattage unless they have a Primož Roglič or Michael Woods type backstory, and at that point it follows the Tyler Hamilton 1000 days rule - just the guys in the Volta are often 29-30 when those 1000 days are up, rather than early to mid-20s as the riders he references at the top level.
Mauricio Moreira has been a pro for 2 years, back in the amateur scene for a year, now back on a pro contract in the Portuguese scene and has significantly stepped up his results in the fourth year since he signed his neo-pro deal. There are 365 days in a calendar year. I like Moreira, but the math(s) is easy to do.