The Women's Road Racing Thread 2016

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

2012 Olympic Champ
Strong second half of last year
Top USA at 2015 Wolds (a minute + ahead of CS)
Strong this spring especially in TTs.

But what's the evidence that she's capable of podiuming the Olympic TT this year?

I mean that as a serious question, not as a rhetorical one. There's no question about her level some years ago. But you could say that about Jan Ullrich too and Jan is younger than her.

I already posted the evidence (see bold).

JU has exactly zero results in the last two seasons so you could not make an argument for him.

You argued that the strong spring is the case to bring her, but she lost the national TT to... Carmen Small. You introduce the point:

the two ladies that she is referring to raced in Cali. the week before. What did Small do the week before? Rest, and focus. She can't try to hang them on not being able to recover, when she did not have to do so herself.

However, what was Kristin Armstrong doing when Small was racing a full European spring program? Of course she'd be fresher for the US calendar, almost all her racing in 2016 has been in the month of May, while Small has been managing form curves since February. However you could then argue this would mean Armstrong will be fresher in Rio than Small would have been because she's had less miles in the legs this season. This works both ways, you can argue both sides here. Also of course, in many of her races Carmen was domestiquing either for Lotta Lepistö or Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio so direct result H2Hs don't tell the whole story. The London 2012 Olympics are the last time Kristin turned a pedal in anger outside the USA - and apart from Richmond, most of the racing she was doing in the second half of 2015 was not in UCI races, so objectively a lot will come down to how highly you rate the US domestic races like Gila and Redlands against the early season European races.

There is understandably quite a bit of resentment both inside and outside the péloton that when Olympic places are so few in number, riders who have been retired (and in some cases e.g. Brändli for quite a long time, while given her focusing on previous Olympics, Kristin has been in and out of retirement more than Brett Favre by this point) are being taken along in preference to riders whose performances earnt the country its Olympic entries. This isn't restricted to Kristin. Believe me it's hard for me to say this and I really don't want to because she's one of my absolute favourites ever, but objectively, based on 2016 performances alone, it's hard to justify Emma Pooley going to Rio (today she showed the first signs of the old Pooley since her comeback began). At least at 25 Dani King will hopefully have another chance. Carmen Small probably won't, and I think that's also a factor in people's reactions to the decision.

 

[jmdirt]

Re: Re:

2012 Olympic Champ
Strong second half of last year
Top USA at 2015 Wolds (a minute + ahead of CS)
Strong this spring especially in TTs.

But what's the evidence that she's capable of podiuming the Olympic TT this year?

I mean that as a serious question, not as a rhetorical one. There's no question about her level some years ago. But you could say that about Jan Ullrich too and Jan is younger than her.

I already posted the evidence (see bold).

JU has exactly zero results in the last two seasons so you could not make an argument for him.

You argued that the strong spring is the case to bring her, but she lost the national TT to... Carmen Small. You introduce the point: But in saying that I also pointed out that KA raced Cali, and CS did not. When they went head to head, focused on the same TT, against the world, KA won.

the two ladies that she is referring to raced in Cali. the week before. What did Small do the week before? Rest, and focus. She can't try to hang them on not being able to recover, when she did not have to do so herself.

However, what was Kristin Armstrong doing when Small was racing a full European spring program? Of course she'd be fresher for the US calendar, almost all her racing in 2016 has been in the month of May, while Small has been managing form curves since February. However you could then argue this would mean Armstrong will be fresher in Rio than Small would have been because she's had less miles in the legs this season. This works both ways, you can argue both sides here. Also of course, in many of her races Carmen was domestiquing either for Lotta Lepistö or Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio so direct result H2Hs don't tell the whole story. The London 2012 Olympics are the last time Kristin turned a pedal in anger outside the USA - and apart from Richmond, most of the racing she was doing in the second half of 2015 was not in UCI races, so objectively a lot will come down to how highly you rate the US domestic races like Gila and Redlands against the early season European races.

There is understandably quite a bit of resentment both inside and outside the péloton that when Olympic places are so few in number, riders who have been retired (and in some cases e.g. Brändli for quite a long time, while given her focusing on previous Olympics, Kristin has been in and out of retirement more than Brett Favre by this point) are being taken along in preference to riders whose performances earnt the country its Olympic entries. This isn't restricted to Kristin. Believe me it's hard for me to say this and I really don't want to because she's one of my absolute favourites ever, but objectively, based on 2016 performances alone, it's hard to justify Emma Pooley going to Rio (today she showed the first signs of the old Pooley since her comeback began). At least at 25 Dani King will hopefully have another chance. Carmen Small probably won't, and I think that's also a factor in people's reactions to the decision.

I can understand the resentment to "part time" racers. To be clear, my concern isn't with CS, I have rooted for her for many years and will continue to do so no matter what happens in arbitration. And like your Pooley favoritism, I clearly have an Armstrong favoritism. I feel strongly that the defending champ should be able to defend their title (obviously if they are prepared). There are some "ifs" I can toss in here: If KA had been getting dropped at races, four minutes off the pace at Nats, etc., or if the selection criteria gave an auto bid to the Nat Champ, there is no discussion here. But KA's results since coming out of retirement are very strong (not the least of which was top USAer at '15 Worlds), and the Nat Champ isn't an auto qualifier (I certainly see an argument for that though).

Does anybody have that emoticon with the guy beating the dead horse? I've certainly gone there!

 

[Jonhard]

I do wonder what the value of these appeal processes really is. The judgement is inevitably subjective to some degree, and a fully objective set of criteria – e.g. top ranked riders – risks taking someone who is out of form or unsuited to the course, and is not the answer imo.

From a British Cycling perspective, they seem to have made a tricky situation worse through a combination of mixed messages and poor communication. I think they’ve also handled the track team badly, which perhaps makes me more inclined to see them as part of the problem.

Anyway, at least Mara Abbot seems to be justifying her US selection with her Giro antics. That was an impressive ride yesterday, with she keeps the lead or not.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

I do wonder what the value of these appeal processes really is. The judgement is inevitably subjective to some degree, and a fully objective set of criteria – e.g. top ranked riders – risks taking someone who is out of form or unsuited to the course, and is not the answer imo.

From a British Cycling perspective, they seem to have made a tricky situation worse through a combination of mixed messages and poor communication. I think they’ve also handled the track team badly, which perhaps makes me more inclined to see them as part of the problem.

Anyway, at least Mara Abbot seems to be justifying her US selection with her Giro antics. That was an impressive ride yesterday, with she keeps the lead or not.

The problem with attempting to set up objective criteria for selection in the first place is that such criteria are necessarily arbitrary and only coincidentally and sporadically produce optimum selections for winning medals. Their positive aspect is that they are supposed to give riders clear objectives to meet and limit the degree to which in-group favouritism damages the chances of riders who aren't the proteges of coaches associated with the national set up.

The goals of providing riders with a clear path to selection, laying out what they need to do objectively and removing favouritism on the one hand and picking optimum teams to get results on the other are not reconcilable. And trying to reconcile them has led to all kinds of messy squabbling. The central problem is the mixed team/individual nature of road racing and the secondary problem is the requirement that TT selections also fill RR slots. These problems are particular to cycling and separate from the general problem across sports of weighting recent performances versus older, better, performances.

The British and American authorities have caused mayhem on the women's side of the sport by leaning towards what they subjectively believe to be teams with the best chance of returning a medal over teams based primarily on the objective criteria. But leaning the other way can cause just as much disgruntlement. On the men's side of the sport in Ireland, for instance, giving priority to supposedly objective criteria created absurd situations where WT level domestiques couldn't get picked for domestique roles ahead of kids and old men who could get a few results of their own in minor races for Conti teams.

 

[jaylew]

Is this the Tour of California? Could USA sweep the podium?

 

[Califootman]

All I know is if the action on the road was anywhere near as exciting as it sounded/read from the twitter feeds, it borders on criminal negligence that we were not able to watch a live stream of Stage 6.

Can the UCI start streaming WWT events? Or someone? Anyone?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yea, despite all the hype for the Mortirolo, this was the queen stage, multiple difficult climbs before a mountaintop finish at Signora della Guardia, a tough climb which was used as a mountaintop finish in the 2007 Giro, showing this profile:

As the only proper MTF in the race (Montenars is somewhere between a HTF and a legit mountain) it was always bound to see action, but with four big climbs in the stage it was also going to be a really testing day in the saddle for riders who had struggled through the Mortirolo yesterday. Chief among those, arguably, was Kasia Niewiadoma, whose GC tilt came to a halt after losing four minutes, however the best young rider elected to channel her inner Fuente and go for broke with a next day suicidal solo multi-col attack, because she is great. True story: the Colle di Nava really ought to have been cat.1. Either way, by the time we got to it, Katie Unknown was well up on the field and all by herself, a state of affairs which continued until the maglia rosa of Abbott decided the diesel was warm enough to stick into its highest gear on the Colle Caprauna; with a time trial tomorrow and having lost almost all of her advantage from the climb yesterday thanks to her Basso-tastic descending skills, the Colorado native realised this was probably her best chance and set a brutal tempo that dropped nearly every contender, with only Evelyn Stevens, who lost the maglia rosa to Mara the day before, able to withstand it. The biggest casualty, unfortunately for Mara (or not as the case may be, since I'm pretty sure it would have been cared about more if it was the other way round), was her teammate Elisa Longo Borghini, who continues her tradition of having one bad mountain stage per Giro, this time much more drastically than in previous years however, ceding the maglia azzurra and dropping out of the top 10 even!

With Mara and Evelyn catching Kasia on the upper slopes of the climb, you were left with a very strong trio of mountain climbers, and they swiftly opened up a gap of over a minute on the chasers, including overall contenders Guderzo and Lichtenberg, Belarusian duo Amialiusik and the young prospect Tuhai, who's come of age in the last two stages, and multiple teammates of those up front, including defending champ van der Breggen, and Megan Guarnier, flanked by Armitstead and Karol-Ann Canuel, who has climbed very well for much of this season, most notably at the Emakumeen Bira. However, the period of coastal flat road prior to the final summit put paid to the lead of the trio; with Mara's skillset not suiting descending into flat roads, Niewiadoma having struggled yesterday and spent most of her day solo in the mountains, and Stevens not being the greatest descender and having three teammates in the group behind, it was perhaps inevitable that the group would come back together. Kasia was actually distanced towards the end of the climb, but her superior descending skills compared to the two Americans reunited the trio before the flat, but it was only temporary before the chasing group made contact.

With the similarities in distance and max, although this is a slightly tougher climb and the summit is the finish which it isn't in Rio, it was interesting with the Olympics in mind to see what happened on the final climb, and the answer was that, once more, Abbott put all of her effort into setting a pace nobody could go with; at first she shelled Canuel, Guarnier, Tuhai and Amialiusik. That Armitstead was still there was the big talking point for Rio, but of little relevance to the GC battle here other than that she could help Stevens. With only a few kilometres remaining, the sum of yesterday's suffering and today's long distance raiding took effect and saw Niewiadoma distanced, and soon Armitstead followed. But while Kasia may have channelled her inner Fuente in launching a daring, dramatic but ultimately futile mountain raid to take back the lost time, Megan Guarnier dug into her cycling history books and picked out a large helping of Stephen Roche-esque comeback riding, so that when van der Breggen launched her attack and Evelyn Stevens countered, suddenly Mara, exhausted from her efforts, was left losing time to Megan rather than gaining it, and with the TT to come, what had looked like an improving lead with Guarnier distanced and ELB dropped suddenly looked rather fragile and a repeat of her 2010 and 2013 successes - similarly built almost entirely out of mountaintop victories - seemed more and more distant.

Stage:
1 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 3'47'42
2 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +6"
3 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +19"
4 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +40"
5 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +53"
6 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +1'18"
7 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +2'58"
8 Elena Cecchini (Canyon-SRAM) ITA +3'55"
9 Kseniya Tuhai (BePink) BLR +4'22"
10 Alena Amialiusik (Canyon-SRAM) BLR +6'00"

GC:
1 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA 16'50'41
2 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +46"
3 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +1'03"
4 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +1'06"
5 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +1'49"
6 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +2'18"
7 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +6'40"
8 Kseniya Tuhai (BePink) BLR +12'11"
9 Alena Amialiusik (Canyon-SRAM) BLR +12'33"
10 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +12'37"

Elisa picked up some points after winning the first climb of the day and picking up the remainder on the second behind Kasia's solo break so she retains the QOM, but falls to 13th overall after losing 17 minutes.

Is this the Tour of California? Could USA sweep the podium?

It will be difficult. Megan and Evie Stevie on the podium seem pretty much locks unless something strange happens, but now there's only the Bèe climb that's really likely to be decisive and a 22km ITT, which counts against Mara. Bèe is not that long which means it will be more like the Montenars finish where Mara's less explosive style doesn't really have the chance to come into its own against those with good punch. Plus, that stage finishes on a descent.

I would not rule out Mara losing 20" to Claudia Lichtenberg here, even if the latter is not a big TT threat. Tatiana Guderzo is a good time triallist, 1'03" is doable. To be honest given some of Mara's performances against the clock over the years and some of Anna's, she isn't even a lock to finish ahead of van der Breggen here. She's surprised me occasionally in the past, but I don't think Mara can hold this podium tomorrow, a lot will come down to the fatigue in riders' legs on the final stage whether that USA lock can be achieved.

Last year, in a similarly tough, hilly course over 21,7km, van der Breggen won and Abbott lost 1'45". She beat Stevens by a second, but Evie was domestiquing last year. In 2013's 17km TT she lost over 30" to Häusler (i.e. Lichtenberg), 55" to Guderzo, 1'00" to van der Breggen and nearly 2' to Stevens. The problem is that, because Abbott only really races the Giro outside of the US, representative samples of results are hard to come by; the fact Guderzo is riding like the rider she was three or four years ago and showing the class she's struggled to recapture of late also throws another wildcard into the mix.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It really is frustrating that we apparently have complete insanity in the Giro Rosa, up to and including the best young rider trying to go full Landis, without it being properly televised while the most boring first week of a Tour de France in living memory is the most widely broadcast and most watched bike race of the year.

 

[jmdirt]

WOOHOO Eve!
Megan is on fire!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

It really is frustrating that we apparently have complete insanity in the Giro Rosa, up to and including the best young rider trying to go full Landis, without it being properly televised while the most boring first week of a Tour de France in living memory is the most widely broadcast and most watched bike race of the year.

Yea, yesterday you had a big MTF in the Österreich Rundfahrt and the queen stage of the Giro Rosa with the big guns going at it 50km and two climbs from home and Kasia even earlier, yet the only one you can find coverage for is 3 hours of a group ride in France. It's the problem, how to counter the "women's cycling is boring" stigma that a lot of people still cling to (despite plenty of evidence to suggest women's cycling is no more boring than men's cycling on comparable parcours, and is often more so owing to less tight control and fewer helpers once the leash breaks) when a race like yesterday's Giro stage doesn't get full TV coverage to showcase just how exciting it can be.

 

[jmdirt]

Re: Re:

It really is frustrating that we apparently have complete insanity in the Giro Rosa, up to and including the best young rider trying to go full Landis, without it being properly televised while the most boring first week of a Tour de France in living memory is the most widely broadcast and most watched bike race of the year.

Yea, yesterday you had a big MTF in the Österreich Rundfahrt and the queen stage of the Giro Rosa with the big guns going at it 50km and two climbs from home and Kasia even earlier, yet the only one you can find coverage for is 3 hours of a group ride in France. It's the problem, how to counter the "women's cycling is boring" stigma that a lot of people still cling to (despite plenty of evidence to suggest women's cycling is no more boring than men's cycling on comparable parcours, and is often more so owing to less tight control and fewer helpers once the leash breaks) when a race like yesterday's Giro stage doesn't get full TV coverage to showcase just how exciting it can be.

A smart, creative producer could put together a nice race package: OK, we know the TdF is the biggest race in the world so show the start and the early break attempts, but then cut to the GR for the climb, and then a few cuts to other races in Europe (maybe even a crit in the USA), and so on. I know the timing and logistics would difficult, but the coverage could be fantastic for the fans and cycling in general.

 

[jmdirt]

WOOHOO Eve!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Stage 7 video

The time trial yielded in some ways the expected result as well as continuing the sport's now fairly well-ingrained domination by the Boels-Dolmans team, now reaching 2014 Rabo levels as Evie Stevie took out her third stage win, while simultaneously Guarnier was able to defend her maglia rosa. With the two being teammates and the relationship between the two, both with each other and the team, being positive, I don't expect to see any civil war brewing, much as PFP didn't take matters into her own hands in 2014 on the Madonna del Ghisallo even though she completed the course in a faster time than Vos, rode clearly within herself until the last few hundred metres to help defend Merckx in that final stage and lost out only on bonus seconds. As a result, as is so often the case in women's cycling, you can say that it's descending that has made the biggest difference in the GC; that time lost descending the Mortirolo when the second group on the road left her behind is likely to be what costs Evie the victory; unless Megan suffers a pájara on the Bèe climb and the team requires Stevens to monitor it to prevent them losing the GC, I'd think they ought to be home and dry from here.

While the gaps may not have been significant to cause a huge shakeup at the front of the race, we had one hell of a battle develop late over the course of the hilly time trial. Last year, over a similar distance and in similar terrain, Anna van der Breggen was a minute faster than anybody else; this year the defending champion was put under pressure to beat the time of Elisa Longo Borghini, the queen of the mountains having struggled yesterday, but come back strongly with a bid for a stage, setting a time a minute faster than anybody who'd been at that point. The only rider to come close until we got to the final few riders was Niewiadoma, but she was still over 30 seconds down on the Italian. When van der Breggen took to the course, this was her time; she had to go all out to salvage a tenuous grip on the podium. With a herculean effort, she tore up the course and threw everything she had at it; this is not the unstoppable Anna of a year ago, and also with the Olympics as a carrot in the near future, form peaking is not quite the same as it was then either; here, the best Anna could do was enough to take the lead, which she managed to do by just one solitary second.

The time she was setting was looking good, however; Guderzo had an uncharacteristically poor time trial, finishing over a minute and a half behind the leaders, while Lichtenberg put in a comparable performance, though this is less unexpected with the diminutive German's mountain-biased skill set. The key was going to be when the Americans took to the stage, because there was both a battle for the stage and a battle for the podium, since Anna VDB had laid down the gauntlet. First up was Evelyn Stevens, the best time triallist of the three, and of course the holder of the Hour record. She was on pace throughout and, coming to the line, it was almighty close; however, the Californian had just enough left over to pip van der Breggen at the line and once more deny Rabo a stage victory (still without one, this is a very uncharacteristic drought for the team which speaks volumes about the performances from Wiggle and Boels) by just 3". Then the wait began for Abbott - and her defence of the podium against van der Breggen. With Guderzo and Lichtenberg's times not threatening (although she only had 20" in hand on Claudia) the big question was whether she could defend her lead against the defending champion... the answer was no, as Mara's tall and thin frame unsurprisingly doesn't lend itself to the time trial bike; while she acquitted herself respectably and even managed to extend her lead over the 2009 Giro winner, she couldn't keep the 2015 Giro winner at bay and will now need to attack on Bèe if she wants to make the podium - she will have Longo Borghini's local knowledge to assist her in that, however, with the finish close to the GPM leader's hometown.

Last to take the course was Guarnier, safely ensconced in the maglia rosa, and knowing she had about a minute in hand on her teammate. It was a reasonably tough ask given how strong Evie Stevie has been and indeed was today, and only a few riders on the day were within the necessary time she needed to beat - but Megan had enough in her legs to hang on and defend against her teammate, eventually settling for fourth on the day, 29 seconds back. As a result, she keeps the maglia rosa with a lead of 34 seconds that would be dangerous if the rider behind wasn't her teammate and if she didn't hold all the sprinting cards over her GC rivals. The Boels support squad may actually see more trouble in stage 8 with Majerus out than in the hillier stage 9, but I think they have enough to take this home, and quite probably with the 1-2. Van der Breggen vaults from 6th to 3rd from the benefit of her successful TT against Guderzo and the mountain specialists, while Niewiadoma extends her already comfortable lead in the maglia bianca competition. An impressive stat for you - Leah Kirchmann achieved her fourth 8th-placed finish of the Giro and now moves into 8th on the GC. She's never been lower than 13th which she's managed in both mountain stages, going 1-12-8-8-8-13-13-8 thus far in stages.

Stage Results:
1 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 36'22
2 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +3"
3 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +4"
4 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +29"
5 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +37"
6 Karol-Ann Canuel (Boels-Dolmans) CAN +1'03"
7 Doris Schweizer (Cylance) SUI +1'32"
8 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +1'33"
9 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'39"
10 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +1'45"

GC:
1 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA 17'27'31
2 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +34"
3 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'53"
4 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +2'07"
5 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +2'33"
6 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +3'05"
7 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +6'48"
8 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +13'42"
9 Alena Amialiusik (Canyon-SRAM) BLR +13'53"
10 Kseniya Tuhai (BePink) BLR +14'45"

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Meanwhile, we have the Tour de Féminin in the Czech Republic, giving much of the women's bunch that isn't racing the Giro - and indeed much of the bunch that will be racing the Thüringen Rundfahrt after the Giro is over - some good racing tune-up mileage in a nice parcours blending flat stages, tough rolling and hilly terrain with occasional cobbles in old Friedensfahrt terrain and the occasional slightly tougher intermediate climb. The race is mainly based around Krásná Lipa in the very north of the country, close to the border with Germany around the Sächsische Schweiz. Among the mammoth startlist of over 180 riders the biggest names are Orica, however there's also BTC and some decent sized names appearing in the national teams - Jolien d'Hoore and Kaat Hannes for Belgium, Romy Kasper, Lisa Klein and Anna Knauer for Germany, Emilie Møberg for Norway, as well as some useful second tier teams like TopSport Vlaanderen, Drops and Lares-Waowdeals.

The first stage was won by Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig, the Danish national TT champion at just 20 (yes, four years older than the road race champion, I know), who's had a very good year thus far, also winning a couple of Belgian national calendar races. She appears to have beaten Russia's similarly youthful Svetlana Vasilieva (normally of Astana) in a two up sprint, with Jolien d'Hoore and BTC's younger Pole Anna Plichta a few seconds behind and the bunch at +31. Stage 2 was a sprint which enabled Ludwig to defend the lead, with Vasilieva proving no threat to the bonus seconds and Loren Rowney outsprinting Jolien d'Hoore and Emilie Møberg for the stage win.

Tomorrow there's a split stage, a 14,6km chrono followed by a 71km rolling stage, before a tougher hilly stage on the final day.

 

[Jonhard]

Wiggle's challenge faded in the end, but two sprint stage wins (plus Mara's) makes it a decent outing even if there's no GC podium, which seems likely now. Another sprint today probably so Bronzini or Hosking could feature. Chloe looks fast at the moment.

Jolien D'Hoore's form has obviously been affected by her omnium plans, and I think it will be a very hard event in Rio. Laura Trott and Sarah Hammer are favourites, and I suspect Laurie Berthon, Nettie Edmonson and Jolien will be scrapping for bronze. (I am essentially giving Trotty the gold already )

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yes, although in fairness nothing around Krásná Lipa is truly flat so while this is terrain that she would have been fine on last year, it doesn't necessarily say too much for her track chances. We're seeing reports that the péloton has split in two with around 20 riders 20" ahead. It's up around 35º today in Italy and the riders are not going to be enjoying this. Possibility of wind later as well. Worth mentioning that - I hadn't noticed this yesterday - Lizzie Armitstead pulled out of the TT mid-stage which suggests either a crash or she was feeling sick; this does however mean that Boels only have four riders left, and they likely don't want to expend more time on Stevens and Guarnier pulling than they need to for obvious reasons! As Canuel is likely to be important in the Stresa stage with the Bèe climb this could mean a lot of pressure on Amalie Dideriksen's shoulders to act as a controlling influence on the péloton.

In the Tour Féminin, Natalia Boyarskaya has won the TT for the Russian national team. The veteran has been based in Italy for most of her career, with Fenixs and Servetto, but most of her biggest results have come in the Russian domestic calendar and the Czech races, both this and Gráciá-Orlová. She pipped Tayler Wiles, for whom Thüringen next week is a target, by six seconds and Anna Plichta, who was the other half of that epic smackdownery in the Polish national RR and has been having a strong week, by twenty. Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig was 5th at +34" so I think she will have retained her jersey, just, through bonus seconds. Intermediates may play a key role as if standard bonus seconds are available as I think they are, we should have:

Ludwig
Boyarskaya +7"
Wiles +14"
Plichta +15"
d'Hoore +35"

 

[Jonhard]

6th for Alice Barnes in the short TT too, good effort from her.

The Giro Rosa stage seems to be working for Boels so far - substantial break with no GC threats up the road...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

6th for Alice Barnes in the short TT too, good effort from her.

The Giro Rosa stage seems to be working for Boels so far - substantial break with no GC threats up the road...

Małgorzata Jasińska, Dalia Muccioli (Alé-Cipollini)
Lauren Kitchen (Hitec Products)
Riejanne Markus (Team Liv-Plantur)
Ana Maria Covrig (INPA-Bianchi)
Audrey Cordon OR Mayuko Hagiwara (one source corrected to Cordon, others still reporting Hagiwara)(Wiggle-High 5)
Anna Ceolini (Servetto-Footon)

They've then been joined by:
Alena Amialiusik (Canyon-SRAM)
Lex Albrecht (BePink)

Covrig won the only climb of the day ahead of Amialiusik. The Romanian national champion has shown herself to be a decent climber, in fact it's a very interesting break composition especially if it IS Hagiwara and not Cordon in the group, as you have a number of riders who you would think are better suited to hilly races - Jasińska is very combative in hilly terrain, Markus and Covrig had decent showings in Trentino, Muccioli is very much seen as a climber for the future, and of course we all know about Amialiusik's capabilities; she's the best placed rider in the break on GC, 9th at +13 mins, and now both Wiggle and Canyon have an excuse not to put any effort in, so the question will be if Rabo, who have their full resources available, are willing to help out Boels; the break is no threat to van der Breggen's podium, and will have to go a fair bit further up the road to even threaten Niewiadoma's rather isolated 7th place, however they haven't won a stage of the race, which will sorely disappoint them, and an attritional sprint stage may be well suited to Lucinda Brand.

Mélanie Bravard (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86) and Ingrid Drexel (Astana) now trying to bridge, the gap's only about 80-90 seconds.

Boels may well be content to let this go and not risk fighting for the seconds in the sprint in case of gaps, it's now being reported it's a very technical, Tour de Suisse-esque run-in with the final straight being very short, maybe a bit like the first stage of the Aviva Women's Tour was, or that Tour de Pologne stage with Kittel and Ewan last year.

OK, it's now confirmed it's Audrey Cordon, not Mayuko Hagiwara in the break, but we now are getting reports that it's not Riejanne Markus for Liv-Plantur but in fact Rozanne Slik, who is better suited to flat power than the more hills-oriented Markus.

There's a splintering of the group, however, with a duo of Jasińska and Covrig going away and working well at the front, Muccioli obviously getting a free ride as Alé had two riders in the group, and with a bit of indecision about who should take up the chase they've opened a gap of around 20-30 seconds. You'd say that the Pole is the stronger rider of the two, but neither of them have much repute in sprints and probably expected to lose if the group came to the line to somebody like Kitchen or Amialiusik. Ceoloni and Slik have now rode across to them to make a quartet at the front.

As they approach the first passage of the finish line, however, it looks like the break is going to be doomed and we're going to have a bunch sprint... seems like it was relatively close, however as the quartet got away from the break we lost time gaps from the rest of the break to the péloton so I don't know how comfortable it was. Covrig attempted a late solo move when it looked like the group would be caught, she's definitely been the most combative rider of the day, but it seemed like the last one was just a forlorn hope to get something out of the day. Youthful hopes from the 21-year-old Romanian couldn't triumph over guile, experience and, well, sprint ferocity, and who's that with the rainbow bands? Why, of course, it's Giorgia Bronzini! Considering retirement at the end of the year (after all, many are retiring post-Olympics, but why wouldn't the female Óscar Freire look at the Doha Worlds and think, I've got a chance of joining Óscar on three World titles?), there's still life in the legs as she's shown this Giro, over a decade on from her first successful baptism at the race, after she won three stages and the maglia ciclamino in 2005.

Wiggle now have four stages, to go with Boels' three courtesy of Evie Stevie; only Kirchmann and Cromwell have been able to break up their party. It's an all-Italian affair at the front as well, with the national riders making up all of the top 3 and two former World Champions at the head of the field.

1 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA
2 Marta Bastianelli (Alé-Cipollini) ITA +st
3 Maria Giulia Confalonieri (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +st

Back at the caravan now, Audrey Cordon has tweeted that "instead of buying some new nail polish on Monday, some girls should buy a brain " - suggests a contre-temps with some of her break companions perhaps? Also in the sprint Leah Kirchmann crashed heavily; she was in 8th on the GC so this could play a factor tomorrow with Amialiusik (9th after the TT) having got into the move today (if there's been a heavy crash while the break is subsumed due to somebody - either the captured rider(s) not getting out of the way or somebody in the lead-out or bunch not looking - this might also explain Cordon's anger. We shall see). Somehow, despite the breakaway, Lauren Kitchen managed to make the top 10 of the sprint so seems like the main part of the group was brought back not long after the duo - and subsequent second duo - got away, to have enabled her to recover for that.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Full stage results:

1 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA 2'28'48
2 Marta Bastianelli (Alé-Cipollini) ITA +st
3 Maria Giulia Confalonieri (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +st
4 Michela Pavin (INPA-Bianchi) ITA +st
5 Lucinda Brand (Rabo-Liv) NED +st
6 Roxane Fournier (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86) FRA +st
7 Ilaria Sanguineti (BePink) ITA +st
8 Tiffany Cromwell (Canyon-SRAM) AUS +st
9 Sheyla Gutiérrez Ruíz (Cylance) ESP +st
10 Lauren Kitchen (Hitec Products) AUS +st

With Kirchmann's time gap to be annulled because of her crash, no changes to the GC today. Abbott was again further back in the group than she perhaps ought to be, but nothing like as much as on the stage Cromwell won where she lost a few seconds as a result. Perhaps the most interesting thing to emerge from the stage was not who was there but who wasn't; in addition to Armitstead dropping out during the TT, we had four non-starters today; chief among them in terms of protagonists in the race is the Italian national champion Elena Cecchini. Amber Neben, the veteran former World time trial champion who was 2nd back in 2008, also retired, but perhaps of most importance looking at tomorrow's final roll of the GC dice, both Anisha Vekemans and Emma Pooley dropped out for Lotto-Soudal; this leaves Claudia Lichtenberg somewhat isolated if she wants to overcome that 40" deficit to get onto the podium, as with Boels' resources depleted a move on Bèe could have been of use with only Rabo likely to chase (although Rabo admittedly still have their full complement in the race) if they could get a couple of riders up the road for her.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Some super-dramatic short promo vids for the Tour de Féminin Krásná Lipa, with sweeping aerial camera shots and mood music:
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3a TT

Meanwhile, in stage 4/3b (they seem to have it as stage 4, but it's a semitappe), Jolien d'Hoore won in the cobbled streets of the centre of Rumburk, ahead of Rowney and Peta Mullens. Time gaps minimal if any.

Edit:
Stage 4

 

[Jonhard]

In the last week ELB cracked/suffered in the heat after I tipped her to challenge GC, and now Jolien wins after I suggest she's lost her edge.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Can you please then concur with me that with Pooley and Vekemans out, Lichtenberg can't mount a serious challenge on Bèe to fly past everyone and take the GC?

In all seriousness, though, the climb is apparently around 5km at just under 8% - plenty enough for somebody to create a bit of action. Dideriksen and Canuel will have to do a lot of pacing through the stage so Boels will be vulnerable I think, however Anna VDB is probably the biggest threat since Rabo have a full complement; Lichtenberg will be similarly hamstrung by lack of team backup, while the descent to the finish may hamper what gains Mara can make (also, the question will remain whether the climb is long enough for her to drop the Boels girls since they have had no problem dealing with her in San Fior or Montenars, it's only been on the Mortirolo that Mara truly cracked them, as Evie Stevie stayed with her when she made the moves on Caprauna so even if Abbott can drop Guarnier it's likely the maglia rosa would only move from one Boels rider to the next.

Video from stage 8

This one is quite unique in that you will note the "diretta" on the right hand side; no highlights package here, we in fact join the race live with a few kilometres to go, so we don't see how the break came to be, or Jasińska/Covrig's move countered by Slik/Ceolini, but it's definitely nice to see some live coverage. They were very quick to put the results up as well which made me think it was live-on-tape-delay, but then when the GC came up Leah Kirchmann was absent as she hadn't crossed the line yet (her crash was inside 3k to go). I am going to put my neck out and say that whoever Audrey Cordon was suggesting needed to "buy a brain" on Monday was whoever was responsible for that crash, as Kirchmann was rather side-swiped into some road furniture and it looks like she rolled over the line with Cordon's group of stragglers a minute back; she looked in a bad way and I hope she can make it to the end of the race tomorrow preserving her top 10 finish, she's raced really well and to drop out at the last like that would be sad.

It also seemed like both Slik and Covrig were keen to avoid capture or at least be the last one to be caught; the technical nature of the run-in perhaps helped the break think they could make it but definitely the stage favoured the sprinters; Rabo seem to have done a lot of work early on (when they went live they even had Niewiadoma pulling the bunch since she's in a bit of a GC no-man's-land, three minutes down on 6th but six minutes up on 8th) but Canyon took over near the end, and frankly their collective forces were always going to be too much for a solo rider, and after Ceolini was dropped it seems Jasińska lost confidence in their chances (the fact Alé had Marta Bastianelli in the group behind who is a stronger sprinter than anybody INPA or Liv have may have been a factor too) it came down to the other two to battle out the Pyrrhic honour of being last attacker caught.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Final day of reckoning in the Giro Rosa, it's a more or less one-climb stage, with the important summit being the climb to Bèe (the first 5,5km of this profile, so at around 7,5% - a lot tougher than the profile makes it look). The stage consists of three mostly flat circuits around Verbania with a small hill in, before the final tougher loop. After the climb there's a descent, however while it has a few switchbacks it's mainly on a fairly wide route. This may be enough to tempt Abbott to go for it, with the descent being a bit more comfortable for her than the steep and difficult Trivigno descent (after the ridge road from the Mortirolo to Trivigno) that almost proved her undoing during the week.

Here in northwestern Lombardia we are very much in Elisa Longo Borghini territory; she is from nearby Ornavasso and these are regular training climbs of hers (as opposed to San Domenico which she reportedly hates!). With the riders circling Lago Mergozzo and around the edges of Lago Maggiore, this will be a mighty scenic stage for what little we will be able to see of it - although not out of any problem with the media or anything but that Vélofocus had their car broken into and their cameras and laptops stolen yesterday and so will be unable to provide us with the coverage or photos for obvious reasons.

Two break groups after two laps:

Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv), Sheyla Gutiérrez (Cylance), Ane Santestebán (Alé-Cipollini), Riejanne Markus (Liv-Plantur), Lauren Kitchen (Hitec Products), Maria Giulia Confalonieri (Lensworld-Zannata), Mayuko Hagiwara (Wiggle-High 5), Ingrid Drexel (Astana), Mélanie Bravard (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86) have five and a half minutes on the péloton, but only a minute behind them they have a second chase group of Lucinda Brand (Rabo-Liv), Barbara Guarischi (Canyon-SRAM), Roxane Fournier (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86), Marta Tagliaferro (Alé-Cipollini), Beatrice Bartelloni (Aromitalia-Vaiano) and Silvia Valsecchi (BePink).

Very interesting to see the two Rabo riders there, with Boels only having two engines for the flat, is there a final day attempted ambush in the making? If there is, they're going to have to really go some, however, as the gaps to the groups have now grown very big. The groups probably needed some secondary GC threats in them, or somebody like Longo Borghini in order to make Boels sit up and take notice, because they can't afford to let Abbott ride across on the climb; as it is, nobody in the group is a notable GC threat so they have little intention of putting the pressure on. Brand is probably now too far away for van der Breggen to risk riding across to without ruining herself before the climb. Unless we get some tertiary group with the likes of Niewiadoma in it (which would make Boels sit up and take notice as not only is she only 7 mins down on GC, but would also give Anna another teammate to ride up to and get help from), I think this will be a final climb shoot-out now.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It seems that the second group didn't have the same cohesion as the first, and the bunch brought it back towards the end of the third lap. Part of that may also be to do with there being a few sprinty types as well as that Brand, Tagliaferro and Fournier had teammates up the road so may not have done the larger share of the contributions. While there were some strong climbers in that front group - Hagiwara, Santesteban and Kitchen in particular have some good results in hilly and mountainous races (Hagiwara even won the Giro's queen stage last year, albeit from an escape in similar fashion), the Bèe climb was not enough for them to get away with any solo moves and while some of the group was shelled (the likes of Gutiérrez, being a sprinter first and foremost) there were still six riders from the break at the summit. And then, just like in the men's Grand Tour yesterday, it was not the climb but the descent that made the difference, as Rabo-Liv's Thalita de Jong made a break for it on the early twists of the descent before it opened out. What de Jong does have over Froome, however, is that, as World Cyclocross Champion, she has some superb technical skills, so this was a gap opened up by technique rather than guts and power; Rabo also had had no victories in the race, and desperately wanted to rectify this wrong, an almost unthinkable situation when you remember 2014.

Meanwhile, behind de Jong, another, secondary battle was waging, with the General Classification on the line. While once more Rabobank were the main aggressors, with van der Breggen looking to overhaul the two Americans on her future team, she couldn't quite do it, thanks primarily to the superb domestique job done by Karol-Ann Canuel, who was there every step of the way. Most importantly, the group of eight that came to the line with the heads of state tallied as follows: Guarnier, Stevens, Canuel (Boels), Niewiadoma, van der Breggen (Rabo), Guderzo (Hitec), Lichtenberg (Lotto), Longo Borghini (Wiggle). Notice any names missing? Yes: Mara Abbott, the winner of the Mortirolo stage, did not have any answers when the pressure was put on downhill. And Longo Borghini did not stay with her, which is an interesting development, although they are racing into Elisa's home region, and Mara did chase down Elisa's move early in the race and has a reputation for not being the most selfless rider around, to say the least. However, this lack of descending nous cost Mara over 30 seconds, which was enough to drop her down in the GC behind Lichtenberg, who climbs to 4th.

Nobody was able to stop de Jong, however, so Rabo with a jersey, a stage and a place on the podium can at least go home moderately satisfied. Wiggle have four stages and a jersey; Boels have three stages and two jerseys including the maglia rosa. There's not been a lot else to go round really, Cromwell getting the fourth stage and Guderzo the maglia azzurra, although certainly it can hardly be argued that Lotto hasn't contributed majorly to the race with Lichtenberg's GC and Pooley's attack on the Mortirolo, Liv obviously got a stage and the first maglia rosa with Kirchmann who, despite her injuries, looks to have defended 8th, coming in in the same group as Tuhai and Amialiusik and I don't think she'll have lost enough time for ELB to pass her. Behind Thalita, another Dutchwoman, Riejanne Markus, took 2nd in the sprint from the remainder of the breakaway ahead of Maria Giulia Confalonieri, who I would normally have backed to beat her in the sprint. Ingrid Drexel was 4th for Astana. Certainly doesn't look like a particularly contested placement sprint at the bottom there with Niewiadoma beating Guarnier and van der Breggen third!

Stage results:
1 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED 2'44'24
2 Riejanne Markus (Team Liv-Plantur) NED +1'05"
3 Maria Giulia Confalonieri (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +1'05"
4 Ingrid Drexel (Astana) MEX +1'05"
5 Ane Santestebán González (Alé-Cipollini) ESP +1'05"
6 Mayuko Hagiwara (Wiggle-High 5) JPN +1'05"
7 Sheyla Gutiérrez Ruíz (Cylance) ESP +1'54"
8 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +1'57"
9 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +1'57"
10 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'57"

FINAL GENERAL CLASSIFICATION
1 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA 22'42'40
2 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +34"
3 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'53"
4 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +2'33"
5 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +2'38"
6 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +3'05"
7 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +6'48"
8 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +15'17"
9 Alena Amialiusik (Canyon-SRAM) BLR +16'18"
10 Kseniya Tuhai (BePink) BLR +16'20"
11 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +16'39"
12 Tetyana Riabchenko (INPA-Bianchi) UKR +20'01"
13 Yevgeniya Vysotska (Hagens Bermans-Supermint) UKR +21'37"
14 Doris Schweizer (Cylance) SUI +22'03"
15 Karol-Ann Canuel (Boels-Dolmans) CAN +24'03"
16 Margarita Victoria García (Bizkaia-Durango) ESP +27'08"
17 Alice Maria Arzuffi (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +27'32"
18 Małgorzata Jasińska (Alé-Cipollini) POL +29'39"
19 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED +31'29"
20 Rasa Leleivyte (Aromitalia-Vaiano) LTU +31'47"
21 Ana Maria Covrig (INPA-Bianchi) ROM +37'24"
22 Polona Bagatelj (BTC City-Ljubljana) SLO +38'31"
23 Martina Ritter (BTC City-Ljubljana) AUT +38'36"
24 Ane Santestebán González (Alé-Cipollini) ESP +39'34"
25 Eri Yonamine (Hagens Bermans-Supermint) JPN +40'08"
26 Amélie Rivat (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86) FRA +40'42"
27 Shara Gillow (Rabo-Liv) AUS +41'21"
28 Carlee Taylor (Team Liv-Plantur) AUS +41'50"
29 Carolina Rodríguez Gutiérrez (Astana) MEX +41'52"
30 Ingrid Drexel Clouthier (Astana) MEX +45'27"

POINTS
1 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA 60
2 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 52
3 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA 40
4 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED 40
5 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL 35
6 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA 35
7 Maria Giulia Confalonieri (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA 32
8 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA 31
9 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED 31
10 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN 30

GPM
1 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA 42
2 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA 35
3 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 34
4 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL 31
5 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER 18
6 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA 12
7 Ana Maria Covrig (INPA-Bianchi) ROM 8
8 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED 7
9 Moníka Kírály (SC Michela Fanini-Rox) HUN 5
10 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA

YOUTH
1 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL 22'49'28
2 Kseniya Tuhai (BePink) BLR +9'32"
3 Alice Maria Arzuffi (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +20'44
4 Ana Maria Covrig (INPA-Bianchi) ROM +30'36"
5 Nicole Nesti (Aromitalia-Vaiano) ITA +38'54"
6 Eider Merino Kortazar (Lointek) ESP +39'16"
7 Amalie Dideriksen (Boels-Dolmans) DEN +42'55"
8 Molly Weaver (Team Liv-Plantur) GBR +43'40"
9 Asja Paladin (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +45'45"
10 Sofia Bertizzolo (Astana) +50'10"

AZZURRI
1 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA 22'45'45"
2 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +13'34"
3 Alice Maria Arzuffi (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +24'27"
4 Nicole Nesti (Aromitalia-Vaiano) ITA +42'37"
5 Soraya Paladin (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +42'50"
6 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +47'47"
7 Irene Bitto (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +48'24"
8 Susanna Zorzi (Lotto-Soudal) ITA +48'53"
9 Asja Paladin (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +49'28"
10 Maria Giulia Confalonieri (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +51'12"

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But while the Giro Rosa may be by far bigger news, the racing in Krásná Lipa continued; and we came full circle, in fact, as in the final circuit stage around the town, Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig, in the race leader's jersey, managed to outsprint Anna Plichta as the two fought out a two-up sprint for the stage win; the race looks to have been difficult and hilly, with the riders in several small groups on the road; behind the lead duo, Alice Barnes led home a group of six at +8", Romy Kasper led another quartet at +17" and there was another 14 at +24".

Overall GC therefore looks like this at the end of the race:
1 Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig (Team BMS-Birn) DEN 10'57'11
2 Anna Plichta (BTC City-Ljubljana) POL +23"
3 Natalia Boyarskaya (Russia National) RUS +28"
4 Tayler Wiles (Orica-AIS) USA +st
5 Alice Barnes (Drops Cycling Team) GBR +1'04"
6 Jolien d'Hoore (Belgium National) BEL +1'19"
7 Ewelina Szybiak (Atom Boxnet Dzierzionów) POL +1'20"
8 Lisa Klein (Germany National) GER +1'43"
9 Paulina Brzeźna-Bentkowska (MAT-ATOM Sobótka) POL +1'46"
10 Svetlana Vasilieva (Russia National) RUS +1'47"