The Women's Road Racing Thread 2016

[lemon cheese cake]

Not impressed by the Ridelondon classique at all:
https://d1ffaecguugkl4.cloudfront.n...cms_page_media/682/PRL-Classique-Route-16.pdf

They could have atleast used the free cycle route:
https://d1ffaecguugkl4.cloudfront.net/ridelondon/live/uploads/cms_page_media/73/2016%20FreeCyle%20map.pdf

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yup, what the World Tour needed was more crits...

 

[Jonhard]

It's uninspiring even by the standard of La Course/Madrid Challenge. Shame, doesn't really match the effort they put into that whole weekend.

 

[jmdirt]

We had to expect this:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/carmen-small-to-fight-usa-cycling-olympic-games-selection-in-arbitration-hearing/

 

[Jonhard]

The Olympic selections have been full of contention. In Japan, Mayuko Hagiwara has lost out to Eri Yonamine despite competing generally at a higher level and thus being responsible for the UCI points that brought Japan its single spot at the games. I may be biased, but I reckon a Giro stage winner is a better medal bet than someone who once came second in a stage of the Joe Martin Stage Race.

Giro Rosa startlist is now confirmed bar BTC Ljubljana and Ale-Cip:

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163815&c=3

 

[Libertine Seguros]

OK, summary:

Rabo look very strong, but a bit more touchable than the last couple of years with no Vos and no PFP. Obviously Anna VDB will enter among the biggest favourites since she kind of is the defending champion, and with some serious climbing stages Kasia will be option B/superdomestique du jour. After that, Gillow is the best climber, so it's not an unbeatable team, but not one of them is a scrub in the hills. Brand had an awesome Giro last season, winning two stages, an intermediate mountain stage and a flat sprint, and she will be a vital helper, while Thalita de Jong managed the hilly circuit race at Trentino to defend Niewiadoma, while Rox is one of the most respected and multi-dimensional helpers in the péloton.

Canyon are nominally led by Italian champion Cecchini but she'll be mainly a stagehunter. She's got a good opportunity to get some days in the maglia rosa early on, however. Their main GC threat would appear to be Amialiusik, depending on Worrack's recovery given few race days since her injury in Binda, and Ryan is still developing. Cromwell is competitive on a wide range of finishes though she doesn't win too often however in stages where the big GC names are looking at each other she could steal a march on them, and Guarischi won a stage last year.

Aromitalia's team is mostly young (extremely young in some cases, eg Nicole Nesti who's just 18). Hopefully the baptism isn't as of-fire as last year in the heatwave. Leleivyte is their biggest name, has had some decent placements post-ban but still, placements are probably all they can hope for.

Astana not having Antoshina is surprising but given BePink have no Olga Z either, this suggests a Russian Olympic plan (except for the Russian Olympic ban thing). Ingrid Drexel is quietly having a really good year, but most of her results have come in North and Latin America so how strong she is in a Euro field is guesswork. Likewise the even younger Fidanza; these two are their most likely riders to be prominent.

BePink are, as mentioned above, without Zabelinskaya, but they do have their other experienced GC name, Amber Neben. She's mostly raced in the US in a quiet season to date, but she was 2nd in the Route de France last year so there's still some life left in her legs. Ilaria Sanguineti is the other rider to look out for from them, she has been quiet so far this year but finished last year very strongly with a win in the Tour de Brétagne and a silver in the U23 European Championships.

Bizkaia-Durango are not at their strongest in recent years, really since losing Sanchis to Wiggle. Their nominal leader is Lise Olivier, an experienced South African who was 6th on the Route de France's Planche des Belles Filles MTF in 2012 but has hopped around the levels since. Spanish national champion Mavi García is quite inexperienced on the road, but has had a very good season and looked handy in the mountains in the Emakumeen Bira's final stage, they may hope for something unexpected from her.

BTC's lineup is not complete but the only difference I could imagine would be bringing in Pavlukhina. Bujak and Bagatelj will give them some riders who can place decently in the GC but not threaten the forefront of the results. Ritter's a half-decent climber too.

Alé are likewise unconfirmed, but the team looks pretty useful as suggested. Bastianelli will be a contender in the sprints, Jasinska will be combative, Muccioli is a promising climber who will want to break out at some point, and Francesca Cauz has just disappeared into thin air this year. She had a late start to the season, DNFed on stage 1 at Auenstein and was a late scratch from Trentino so suggests she's hurt/ill, but that's a blow for the race. Not as bad a blow as the lack of a Cervélo-Bigla team robbing us of Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, but still. Especially as stage 1 goes through Cauz's hometown.

With the lack of Cervélo, Cylance are perhaps the smallest roster of one of the big teams to take part. Just five riders for them (!). More or less as you'd expect with Olds still injured and Tetrick breaking four ribs in the Aviva Women's Tour (the day she attacked solo and was caught 50m from the line!). With Olds out, Sheyla Gutiérrez will sprint, and Scandolara and Ratto will be free to do as Scandolara and Ratto do, which is attack in all manner of crazy places and enliven the race whilst ultimately frustrating fans like me who wish they could get more success from it than they do (especially Rossella, who's really struggled since the Estado de México finance fiasco to recapture the form she had beforehand).

Hagens-Bermans are the first of the real 'out there' invites, a lot of riders who've only got North American-based results, however they do have Japanese champion Eri Yonamine, and also a late hired gun (signed last week) in 41yo Ukrainian Evgeniya Vysotska who's having a good season.

Hitec are led as you might expect by former World Champion Tatiana Guderzo, who has a number of good GCs at the Giro in her past. She's not been as strong in the last couple of years but she has experience on her side and can't be underestimated. Kirsten Wild has, as ever, elected not to take part here, so Lauren Kitchen will be their second target; she's got some top 10s in big WT events like Strade Bianche this year and has been consistently strong for a couple of years now. No Vita Heine is a surprise.

Boels-Dolmans are obviously one of the biggest threats. While Lizzie Armitstead, as the rainbow jersey wearer, gets the team leader's number, GC-wise this will surely be all about the American hydra-headed attack of Megan Guarnier (who of course has the World Tour leader's jersey too) and Evelyn Stevens. Both are excellent climbers, both have podiumed the Giro in recent years, and along with Karol-Ann Canuel who will be their main mountain helper, one would envisage, were about the biggest threats to Johansson at the Emakumeen Bira. With Guarnier also a favourite for the Olympic RR they will definitely be key contenders here. Dideriksen is a young helper but in stupendous form as seen at the Aviva Women's Tour, while Majerus is just as respected as a helper as Knetemann as well as providing a potential stage winning option if Armitstead doesn't fancy the finish.

INPA are inevitably led by Riabchenko, who is a very good climber. Tuslaite has been in some very good form recently as well, with Stricker to give them a sprint option (especially after some climbs, as she can get over quite a few obstacles). Perhaps placements all they can hope for unless they pick the right break, but they'll be far from the most invisible around.

Lensworld are an odd pick, as a Belgian classics team, especially as they signed reigning QOM Flavia Oliveira specifically with the Giro in mind, and she's not raced for them since Elsy Jacobs. They've also signed a couple of Italians, most notably Confalonieri, but would seem most likely to be focused on stagehunting and the breaks with Oliveira out.

Lointek are one of the weaker teams in the race, a Basque squad comprised mainly of development prospects, shorn of their best rider since Sheyla Gutiérrez went to Cylance. They have some decent prospects such as Alicia González but for the moment, more break fodder and development riding I'm afraid.

Lotto-Soudal are THE GREATEST TEAM SINCE CERVÉLO because, well, just like back in the glory days of 2009-10, they have Claudia Lichtenberg (then Häusler of course) and Emma Pooley in the same team. It doesn't matter that Pooley's a way off her best, the big problem they've had season long is that Claudia has all too often been isolated against the very best teams' best two, three or even four riders. In the mountains, even if not at their best, this duo wouldn't die wondering. Susanna Zorzi was top 10 of Trentino and the rest of the team are far from scrubs, but let's face it, it doesn't matter who backs a lead duo of Lichtenberg and Pooley, they're rendered secondary to me.

Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86 continue their run with their best riders, Fournier, Biannic, Éraud, Rivat. They will be combative and competitive in sprints but I will be surprised if they're particularly GC-effective.

The Michela Fanini team are for some reason without Edwige Pitel, their strongest rider even at 49, and Sari Saareläinen, their next best CQ points scorer. This renders them a fringe team, with their strongest rider seemingly Lozano, the Colombian, whose results are mainly outside Europe.

Servetto-Footon are slightly disappointing, from the perspective that Brändli has decided she doesn't have a full Giro in her legs at this stage in her comeback, and Neff is focusing on MTB ahead of the Olympics so isn't starting (which is a shame as I'd have loved to have seen what she could do on the Mortirolo and Montagna della Guardia). As a result Potokina is probably their best rider for the mountains, as at 19 it's probably too soon for Ragusa. I did say after Chongming that somebody would probably take a flyer on Ting-Ying Huang because of the points she has, but Servetto has done so mid-season; she will be the sprinting option for them and it will be interesting to see how she does.

Liv were the first team to announce their sextet, led by Leah Kirchmann most likely. Carlee Taylor is a pretty solid climber too, but the team's interest in the GC is comparatively limited; Kirchmann has really stepped up this season, but the climbing here is likely to be beyond her, and the team's best climber is Sabrina Stultiens, still on the long term injury list. Floortje is spared the carnage of the Giro too, to keep her fresh for the rest of the season and maybe threaten the WWT U23 jersey once the flatter pseudo-crits begin since there's no way Floortje can outscore Niewiadoma here unless the latter gets hurt, and there's likewise no way Kasia can outscore Floortje in the pseudo-crits unless Mackaij crashes.

Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo always try to add a wildcard or two at the Giro (the biggest success being Cauz in 2013), this year it's likely to be either Irene Bitto or, more likely, Soraya Paladin, who were very strong at Trentino (the latter ending on the podium). Paladin preceded it with a strong GP Liberazione and followed it with a top 5 in the nationals.

Wiggle are of course one of the super-teams here, with multiple GC options. Their nominal leader is Elisa Longo Borghini as it damn well should be - yes, Mara is riding, and no, Mara isn't going to swallow her pride and ride for Elisa no matter what, but the biggest mountain here is not a summit finish, which counts against Mara owing to her fragile defending. ELB's versatility also means there's a good chance Mara will have lost a fair amount of time before the mountains - even last year as Wiggle's protected rider she missed some important moves in the intermediate stages. Also, no San Domenico this year, a climb Elisa hates and Mara loves. Mara will ALWAYS be an option for this race, but all the eggs in her basket is not the way to go. Backup comes from Elisa's roommate and 'twin', Audrey Cordon, climbing assistance comes from Mayuko Hagiwara, who won the queen stage last year so memorably, and the flats are handled by Chloe Hosking and two-time World Champion Giorgia Bronzini. d'Hoore skips the race to focus on the track for the Olympics (Edmondson and Pieters likewise have commitments to the velodrome), Johansson prefers to take a break post-nationals then race Thüringen instead, so Sanchis and King are perhaps the main ones to consider to have missed out.

The wildcard to Xirayas was a bit of a shock, and how well they will adapt is anybody's guess as they typically only race against the best in the pre-season. For what it's worth, María Carla Álvarez is their leader after a good San Luís, while their only extranjero, Chilean Paolo Muñoz, has had good results in South American races, but we haven't seen her in Europe yet.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The best July race is underway! I am tranquillo. Wait, no I'm not. I'm tense and excited.

Kim de Baat got us underway for Lensworld, followed by Sofia Beggin for Astana the first to get the home crowd cheer. Wiggle have put Abbott in the earliest pot to get her TT out of the way, they did the same last year when she lost nearly 30" to Annemiek in 2,2km. It's a similar length today, but Annemiek isn't racing as Orica have decided not to ride. It was an Aussie who set the early time to beat though, as Hitec's Lauren Kitchen was the best for some time, but since then Rabo have rather taken over with first Roxane Knetemann and then Cyclocross World Champion Thalita de Jong, in her element on a short technical prologue (the experience of cyclocross AND being Dutch so dealing with the insane volumes of road furniture obviously helping), overhauling her time and setting the lead with a time of 2'24,18.

Shortly afterwards Tiffany Cromwell went 3rd fastest behind the Rabo duo, but then there was a lull until Leah Kirchmann put in the new best time for Liv-Plantur, which surprised me somewhat. The Canadian's time snuck past de Jong by under a second from first reports. Frustratingly few pointers on who's doing what as the prologue is simply so short that by the time you've got a handle on one rider's time the next one's come in. And we also have the traditional lull in non-broadcast women's races where you KNOW important stuff is going on, because nobody can spare the time to update us on what it is. Frustratingly little coverage, but then it's a Friday evening prologue, which is always problematic. I remember having to wait several hours to find how the climbers who were outside the top few on GC did in the prologue last year, since though they were well down at that point, the results for the likes of Abbott and Lichtenberg were rather more relevant to the final GC than some of those for whom a strong prologue performance was their target for the race, or great riders who aren't renowned as climbers so wouldn't be as relevant to the GC in the long run. Kirchmann sitting pretty for now. Guarischi has now gone 6th, the team tweets. Of course I'll pore over the results sheet once they're able to confirm everything. I'm much more hyped for this than the Tour.

So with her time of 2'23,28, Kirchmann held on to the lead as nobody was able to depose her! It's a great result for her - and for Liv, who are here primarily to hunt stages with Leah their biggest overall threat. Boels tweet that Megan Guarnier was 4th and their best rider; however even so she loses out slightly to the defending champion, as van der Breggen also, like her teammate de Jong, was within 1" of Kirchmann's winning time. Every little helps, of course! Anna can't have got much on Megan though, as Knetemann is 5th at +2", so Rabo-Liv certainly showcasing some superb prologue skills with three riders in the top 5 (all Dutch, natch; probably because of that experience with road furniture mentioned above).

Canyon-SRAM now post up some slightly more detailed info on the top few riders:

1 Leah Kirchmann (Liv-Plantur) CAN 2'23
2 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED +0,8"
3 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1,5"
4 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +3,0"
5 Roxane Knetemann (Rabo-Liv) NED +3,0"
6 Tiffany Cromwell (Canyon-SRAM) AUS +3,7"

Wait, awesome, the team have now posted a screenshot of the front page of results, so I owe a huge thanks to Canyon-SRAM for their help in piecing together these results. Thank you!!!

7 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +4,9"
8 Amalie Dideriksen (Boels-Dolmans) DEN +5,2"
9 Barbara Guarischi (Canyon-SRAM) ITA +5,4"
10 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +5,8"
11 Elizabeth Armitstead (Boels-Dolmans) GBR +5,8"
12 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +6,4"
13 Alena Amialiusik (Canyon-SRAM) BLR +6,4"
14 Christine Majerus (Boels-Dolmans) LUX +6,6"
15 Aude Biannic (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86) FRA +6,6"
16 Lucinda Brand (Rabo-Liv) NED +6,8"
17 Riejanne Markus (Liv-Plantur) NED +7,5"
18 Chloe Hosking (Wiggle-High 5) AUS +7,5"
19 Eugenia Bujak (BTC City-Ljubljana) POL +7,5"
20 Molly Weaver (Liv-Plantur) GBR +7,7"

As you might expect, the biggest teams clustering near the top there, especially those based in the Netherlands, more so than Wiggle, although admittedly if Wiggle had shown up with d'Hoore and Johansson in the squad it could have been a different story. Importantly, Niewiadoma, Stevens, Longo Borghini and Amialiusik are close at hand to keep this as tight as possible ahead of the weekend's stages, with the latter two offering their team solid GC options and the former two offering important plan B options for their teams.

Now, the investigation into where the pure climbers like Abbott and Lichtenberg finished can begin...

The net result of the prologue is that, obviously, Kirchmann is in the maglia rosa. de Jong will wear the maglia ciclamino tomorrow, but Kirchmann of course leads that classification too. Van der Breggen will start her defence in the QOM jersey, though there have been no points awarded yet. The other two classifications are awarded legit, however, with the best young rider jersey going to Niewiadoma (who may be able to Bugno it, though Dideriksen is 0,3 seconds behind her so may take it in the flatter first part of the race, but I can't really anticipate anybody but Kasia winning this unless she crashes or gets sick) and the maglia azzurra for best Italian rider to Barbara Guarischi, who will look to build on that advantage tomorrow, but the jersey is probably likely to rest with ELB again this year, especially with Cauz not present.

With the final full classification now out, the location of key names in the GC can be completed. Here are a few outside the top 20 I've picked out as they could either fight for the maglia rosa on bonus seconds or are potential GC candidates:

22 Marta Bastianelli (Alé-Cipollini) ITA +8"
23 Shara Gillow (Rabo-Liv) AUS +8"
31 Lauren Kitchen (Hitec Products) AUS +10"
33 Rossella Ratto (Cylance) ITA +10"
37 Elena Cecchini (Canyon-SRAM) ITA +10"
39 Karol-Ann Canuel (Boels-Dolmans) CAN +11"
41 Emma Pooley (Lotto-Soudal) GBR +11"
44 Trixi Worrack (Canyon-SRAM) GER +11"
48 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +12"
56 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +12"
58 Amber Neben (BePink-La Classica) USA +12"
79 Tetiana Riabchenko (INPA-Bianchi) UKR +15"
80 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +15"
126 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +25"

Tomorrow's stage is the now established Gaiarine-San Fior stage, although with different climbs around Vittorio Veneto in the decisive part of the stage to fulfil different roles in the race.

The 2014 stage here was a great Giro Rosa classic stage over La Crosetta, with Pooley attacking two climbs from home and demolishing the break with only the then unknown Niewiadoma able to follow, while a select group with the likes of ELB, Mara, Vos and PFP tore the group apart and put four minutes into it behind, with Pooley just hanging on for the first of three stages. Last year's stage was the first real GC day, with a selection of 8 being made on the Piai climb in 40º+ heat and Megan Guarnier winning the sprint from the select group, which PFP and Lichtenberg missed; also renowned for Taylor crashing to a fate unknown from well in the lead (and swearing about it when watching the replay, like a true Aussie). This stage is a bit more benign, but the riders should be familiar with the climbs around Vittorio Veneto by now - they're a bit more than punchy but not enough to be for the real grimpeurs. The likes of Armitstead may have to grit their teeth to make it to the finish intact here, but should be able to in the right kind of form. And if it is as selective as last year's stage, then obviously Guarnier has to be a favourite, with other riders who have a fast finish and yet are likely to make it over the obstacles if it IS that selective being the likes of Moolman-Pasio or Johansson who aren't here.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

RAI highlights show from the Prologue

It's 35º as the bunch ride around San Fior, Marta Tagliaferro spent much of the day alone in the lead while the bunch takes it easy on the flat part of the stage. Rabo are apparently riding for Lucinda Brand today as it's her 27th birthday. Kim Le Court de Billot of Bizkaia-Durango has crashed and been forced to abandon - the only Mauritian rider in the péloton!

The last climb of the day has brought Tagliaferro back and seen the group fracture, and there are now four riders at the head of the field, with Boels' continuing domination seeming imminent - the quartet are Evelyn Stevens, Megan Guarnier (both Boels-Dolmans), Kasia Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) and Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5). All great climbers, and you would back Megan to win the sprint of that quartet eleven times out of ten even without a teammate in the bunch to chase the others for her too. ELB has taken the QOM points ahead of Megan and Kasia, but seems like she and Niewiadoma are leaving it to the Boels riders to pull, especially the unknown one, since her team leader is behind. The group gets a lead of 49" with 15km remaining, so this could be a key move in the overall story of the race. The San Fior stage never disappoints!

This year the main body of the steepest climb was just 2km long, but on top of the false flat beforehand it became a bit too much for the Armitsteads of the world, but it wasn't long enough for Abbott. Surprised Anna VDB has missed the move, but it clearly looks like this quartet is going to go to the line. However, we now have a strong chasing group of Abbott, Lichtenberg, Bronzini and Guderzo which is just 15" behind the leaders at 2km remaining; obviously Bronzini not working as ELB is in front and she can win the sprint from it. Guderzo and Lichtenberg presumably doing most of the work as Abbott is also for Wiggle, but with ELB and Niewiadoma not wanting to work for Boels, and Guarnier wanting the sprint, it's basically Evie Stevie vs. Tatiana & Claudia. The bunch at 40"... the groups come together. Apparently, actually, Abbott was chasing, which only confirms my suspicions that Mara is all about Mara and nobody else, as chasing down somebody who in reality ought to be the leader of the team (after all, Elisa rides all year for them at the highest level, Mara swans into town for the Giro and the US races only and doesn't do any domestique miles) isn't what you'd normally expect. There are now nine riders at the front so clearly somebody has been missed out from the chase group in the reportage. Similar kind of outlook overall to last year, but broken up and brought back together rather than the group of 8-10 getting away and staying so.

...and now the silence that follows the last km action as everybody is busy...

OK!!! So, the ninth rider was Lithuanian Rasa Leleivyte, riding for Aromitalia-Vaiano. She was a pretty quick durable sprinter a few years ago, who served a suspension for cutting corners in the intention to make herself more of a GC-capable rider, however terrain like today has always been in her remit. However, from a group of 9 as described, there was surely only going to be one winner in a sprint, and of course that's precisely how it turned out. Take a bow, Giorgia Bronzini. The former two time World Champion is one of the wiliest, canniest riders for this kind of situation, and a superb sprinter of course, and nobody was going to stop her here, outsprinting Guarnier and Leleivyte on the line. This means that Guarnier now takes the maglia rosa, I believe, as Giorgia was more than 4" behind her in yesterday's prologue.

Now we wait to find how much time the group lost. However, as a first marker for the climbs it tells us who is in form; clearly Anna VDB can't be at her best just yet with her not even making the second chasing group with the purer climbers like Lichtenberg and Abbott who'll be waiting for the longer climbs later in the race, at the same time if they've only got a handful of seconds, the likes of ELB and Guarnier may be left to rue that if Anna rides herself into better form later on.

Some of the reason for the issues is becoming clear as the Boels team have tweeted about difficulties with telephone reception etc. on site at the finish. Tiffany Cromwell, meanwhile, has posted a "profile vs. reality" comparison that illustrates how the form of the Giro Rosa's profiles flattens out some of the challenges, with bonus climbing involved and, most notably the actual course being significantly longer than the profile suggested.

Picture from the finish from ElPeloton.Net. That's clearly Lichtenberg 5th and Guderzo 6th, but hard to tell otherwise. Cannot see any other black jerseys in the foreground which suggests a few seconds lost at the line by Abbott and ELB. The white jersey in 4th can only therefore be Niewiadoma (who's in the maglia bianca) or Stevens, I can't see why Stevens wouldn't be in the normal Boels kit which would suggest it must be Kasia... except that there's another whitish jersey in the background behind Guderzo, and it's hard to tell who that could be from the process of elimination.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

OK, now sorted. The white jersey in the background is Lizzie Armitstead, of course in the rainbow jersey, who somehow managed to escape the bunch on the run-in (presumably on the descent or on the final uncategorized Colle Umberto rise) but never managed to quite make it across to the lead group, nevertheless put a fair amount of time on the bunch, while Abbott and Longo Borghini lose some potentially key time in the last kilometre. This might mean Giorgia or Tatiana in the maglia azzurra, depending on the time bonuses.

1 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA 2'38'22
2 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +st
3 Rasa Leleivyte (Aromitalia-Vaiano) LTU +st
4 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +st
5 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +st
6 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products-UCK) ITA +st
7 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +5"
8 Elizabeth Armitstead (Boels-Dolmans) GBR +5"
9 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +9"
10 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +24"

The group was led in by Tiffany Cromwell and the maglia rosa of Leah Kirchmann at +41", with van der Breggen, Ratto, Jasińska, Cecchini, Taylor, Vysotska, Amialiusik, Canuel, Potokina and Santesteban in this group, then at +1'03" there was another group with Paladin, Gillow, Bagatelj, Pooley, Neben and Riabchenko. de Jong, Pavlukhina, Sanguineti, Worrack and Brand are at +3'21". The 4'51" group included mostly domestiques and sprinters like Bastianelli, Huang and Knetemann but some important climbing helpers there like Hagiwara and some anticipated climbers like Muccioli.

So! The GC now looks like this:
1 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA 2'40'42
2 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +8"
3 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +8"
4 Rasa Leleivyte (Aromitalia-Vaiano) LTU +13"
5 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +14"
6 Elizabeth Armitstead (Boels-Dolmans) GBR +14"
7 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +15"
8 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products-UCK) ITA +15"
9 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +33"
10 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +37"

11 Kirchmann +43"
12 van der Breggen +45"
13 Cromwell +48"
15 Amialiusik +50"
18 Ratto +54"
20 Canuel +55"
36 Gillow +1'14"
39 Pooley +1'17"
42 Neben +1'18"
48 Riabchenko +1'21"

Tomorrow, we're in Friuli, and it's the first uphill finish of the race.

According to Jeanine Laudy, who's normally an excellent source on all things women's cycling, this climb is 5,8km @ 4,7% so it should be mostly a grind and not a pure climber's plaything, although it does look like the steepest kilometre is the last one. This is probably a bit like a tougher version of the Urkiola finish from the Emakumeen Bira (only without Emma J here to contest it). Because of the climbing beforehand it may not suit the more explosive style of Armitstead but given the year she's had you could never write her off. However that final kilometre is probably too difficult for Bronzini to cope. Is it long enough for Abbott, who's always preferred the bigger mountains, or should ELB try to win back some of the time she lost late today? How about those that missed the key move today? Guarnier obviously won Philly on the Manayunk Wall, but van der Breggen won Flèche which is on a longer and tougher climb - however Montenars is half the gradient of those...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

After an hour of racing in stage 2 of the Giro Rosa, the bunch were thundering along at over 42km/h, and keeping a short leash on the attack move which consisted of Croatian national champion Mia Radotić (BTC City-Ljubljana) and Anna Trevisi (Alé-Cipollini). The BePink team are proving our main source of updates from inside the péloton today. The bunch decided to swallow the fugitives up ahead of the intermediate sprint, which was won by Italian national champion Elena Cecchini, so for the time being at least it doesn't seem there will be significant GC impact resulting from it. It seems to be in some kind of plan for Canyon-SRAM as following it Trixi Worrack has gone on the attack, not being allowed to get too far though. We're now getting reports that the first half of the finishing climb is quite tough, before the second half is very gradual; this might change the kind of riders who are contenders, perhaps people like Cecchini could come back into it?

Boels clearly felt Worrack was a bit too dangerous to allow to go, chasing her back accordingly. Before the second intermediate sprint the bunch split in two which meant we saw some unexpected names take the bonus seconds, with Amialiusik getting 3, Guarnier 2 and van der Breggen 1. A small group attacked around 15km from the line but was brought back into the fold around 10km to go. A lot of cagey racing, riders jostling for position but no real attacks on the first time up the first part of the Montenars climb.

It seems like at the start of the final climb there's been a split in the group with the main elites all making the front group as the pace goes up. The tough final côte did create a few gaps late on though, and we're now having reported that Evelyn Stevens won the stage, continuing Boels' great run of success, however Megan Guarnier in the maglia rosa was slightly distanced, eventually finishing 5th; the climb was possibly a little more difficult than anticipated as Guarnier would not have expected to lose time here, albeit just a few seconds. Elisa Longo Borghini is second across the line ahead of Kasia Niewiadoma and Mara Abbott. The time bonuses accrued mid-stage by Guarnier could now be key in whether she retains the maglia rosa against Niewiadoma. Lichtenberg and Guderzo close at hand as well, so the mountains could really be a great battle this year!

1 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA
2 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA
3 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL
4 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA
5 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA
6 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER

Boels reporting that Stevens takes the maglia rosa, so that would suggest that either she has it on fractions from the prologue ahead of Kasia (who was 6" ahead of her coming into today and has 6" less bonus - 10" against 4") or was able to open up a time gap at the line. ELB lost a few seconds at the line yesterday.

Ah, here we go, more complete results:

1 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 2'48'26
2 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +st
3 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +2"
4 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +3"
5 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +24"
6 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +24"
7 Rasa Leleivyte (Aromitalia-Vaiano) LTU +33"
8 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +33"
9 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +33"
10 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +33"

Amialiusik +47", Jasińska +1'06, Taylor & Ratto +1'15, Riabchenko +1'28, Armitstead +2'53, Neben +4'10, Muccioli +4'20, Pooley +10'40. Two DNFs for Xirayas de San Luís.

This in turn leaves the GC looking like this:
1 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 5'29'12
2 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +2"
3 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +18"
4 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +23"
5 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +35"
6 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +36"
7 Rasa Leleivyte (Aromitalia-Vaiano) LTU +42"
8 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +44"
9 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +1'12"
10 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'13"

The biggest name to not have the top 10 but also not have lost significant time just yet is Amialiusik at +1'30. Evie Stevie and ELB are level in the GPM, but with Stevens in the maglia rosa (she holds the tie break on GC position) and ELB leading the maglia azzurra competition outright, Niewiadoma and Guarnier, third and fourth in the classification, also leading other classifications outright, the maglia verde will probably fall to Abbott tomorrow despite her only being 5th in the GPM.

(Edit: now confirmed, Abbott in green tomorrow despite that - shown in the jersey presentations below)

Short version of stage 2 highlights. Seems the group at around 15km to go was a quintet of van der Breggen, Niewiadoma, Abbott and Longo Borghini anchored by the maglia rosa of Guarnier; although its numbers swelled a little later, it seems perhaps having dosed her efforts while her teammates brought the group back could have been vital in Stevens' victory. As soon as the riders hit the final climb, Katie Unknown attacked, but only succeeded in removing people from the group you might have expected to be dropped anyway. Abbott took over pacemaking and successfully shelled some more, but the elite climbers weren't troubled by her on this ascent (looking at her form, that may come later in the race though). Mara lacks explosiveness which is why she's at her best on the longer climbs when she can just set a tempo nobody can match. At one point she trimmed it to just herself, Niewiadoma, Lichtenberg and Longo Borghini (a sight which brings my ideal situation of Kasia and Claudia battling out the GC win on a climactic MTF closer to actually being a possibility!), but then Stevens and Guarnier rode themselves back to the group. It looks like when Guarnier went pop she was riding with Stevens at the back of the group, and cleared Evie to attack as she was clearly feeling strong; my favourite American cyclist of all duly took up the offer, opening a gap which ELB chased down with Mara and Kasia following; the less explosive Lichtenberg was left trailing with Guarnier. The maglia rosa then rode herself back toward the group, only for Abbott to go back to the front and put her back out the rear again. ELB and Mara then had a weird section where I can't tell if they were working together or against each other, because they're so different as climbers, ELB able to change up and down tempo more freely on the changing gradients, but Mara capable of sustaining a much more demanding pace that punishes others; and while they looked to be causing some pain, Stevens and Niewiadoma were under no obligation to work given they both had leaders behind (although it's increasingly looking like Kasia not Anna should be Rabo's leader here) and Wiggle outnumbered them two to one in the group. Meanwhile behind Guarnier was gritting her teeth to stay with Lichtenberg and limit her loss. When ELB launched the sprint, she opened a gap, but Stevens had enough to counter it, having not done so much work in the run-in; Kasia and Mara are really not known for sprint prowess so it was really between the two of them.

Overall, I'm intrigued by the Giro's coming days. Firstly that the flatter stages might have to be raced really hard, as Boels and Rabo will no doubt be concerned about Abbott in the Mortirolo and Signora della Guardia stages, as if they don't get enough time out of her in the TT and in those stages she's surely got this; but we have a very interesting battle for the GC placements as well, with Tatiana Guderzo showing her best climbing legs for a few years here; she's seemed fairly anonymous of late, but she's a really good climber and is still only 31 (the same age as Megan Guarnier who's only really hit her best in the last 2-3 years); Claudia Lichtenberg has not lost time by missing splits in early stages as she did the last couple of years, and with the climbing to come she will be a wildcard (although her backup team at Lotto is less strong and she may have to rely quite heavily on Pooley in the hardest stages...nevertheless, the more competitive Claudi can be the better), while van der Breggen needing to make up time (and probably now more than she can guarantee pulling back in the time trial) adds another factor (as well as, for the time being at least, giving Kasia a reason to hold tight in the group and let others take the initiative, not that it's easy to rein in her aggressive instinct once the selection is forced, after all as she herself says, she's unlikely to win a sprint in most groups she'll come to the line with), while Longo Borghini will likely get a free ride in the highest mountain stages if Abbott uses her weapons to their fullest, and besides is more than capable of making the difference on the toughest terrain in her own right.

If they can put Mara on the back foot a bit more prior to the Mortirolo stage, we could have a second half of the Giro for the ages.

 

[jmdirt]

WOOHOO Eve!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Stage 3 summary.

After the frantic opening to the race, this was almost men's cycling-esque, as with the first two road stages having been competitive enough to ensure none of the actual sprinters were in contention for the maglia rosa and the GC here likely to be outside the remit of the all-rounders who can win time in the bonuses (plus the most all-round of those, Johansson, not being present), the stage was allowed to be played out by the sprint specialists, since we were back in the Po Valley, and the profile resembled... well, a stage in the Po Valley.

When I say it resembled a men's stage, I do mean rather later on; at first we were in the same kind of vein we often see in women's races where there are multiple attempts at getting away, but the bunch very keen to shut them down very quickly, so few moves gain more than a few seconds. This lasted for the first half of the stage, during which Elisa Longo Borghini took maximum points on the only categorized climb ahead of Stevens and Niewiadoma to move into the lead outright in that classification (she had been level with Stevens, but interesting to see all three displaying some interest in the QOM), and Megan Guarnier picked up a couple of bonus seconds in the intermediate sprint, seeing as this is an area in which she holds the cards - very easily in fact - against her GC rivals; ELB is not renowned as a sprinter, Stevens is of course her teammate, Guderzo isn't renowned for it, Bronzini will fall away in the high mountains, and between Niewiadoma, van der Breggen, Lichtenberg and Abbott you have some of the least sprint-adept riders in the entire péloton.

After the points were divvied up, however, breakaways became somewhat more successful, with the veteran Silvia Valsecchi of BePink making the first move, only to be overhauled and passed by wildcard team Hagens Bermans' Scotti Lechuga, who managed to open up a gap of approaching 30" before Olena Pavlukhina, the Azerbaijani champion in the midst of a career year at 27, chased across to her. The bunch were not to be denied, however, and the almost inevitable bunch gallop settled the first quiet day of the race. Few people of particular relevance to the business end of proceedings lost any time in splits, though Muccioli at +20" might be worth mentioning, however she's yet to really deliver on her early promise. Cecchini at +25" is further down than you'd expect, and of course Pooley at +42" probably sat up at the end as she has a tendency to do nowadays; her role now you'd expect is stagehunting and working for Lichtenberg. Most interestingly perhaps is that Lizzie Armitstead was over a minute back, although she doesn't tend to focus on the Giro and tends to ride it as a domestique. That will perhaps seem a bit more strange in the rainbow bands, but she's clearly not at her peak as she looks to build up to the Olympics. As you can see in the summary, she spent much of the day on the back of the bunch after doing pacing work at the start of the day chasing attackers. Canyon-SRAM led out much of the run-in in the hope that Barbara Guarischi could repeat last year's sprint heroics, only for Wiggle to steal their thunder late on - but rather than the anticipated benefactor, the home favourite Giorgia Bronzini, they instead elected to take their second sprint stage win through Australian Chloe Hosking, the winner of the Tour of Chongming Island, with Bronzini managing third on the day; Alé-Cipollini's Marta Tagliaferro splitting the two. Guarnier mixed it up in the sprint to retain the maglia ciclamino ahead of Bronzini, but otherwise the GC remains pretty unaffected, as you might expect from a pan-flat stage.

I'm not sure about the new, slightly less eyeball-burning Alé kits. They're still great and crazy fluoro, but while still far from tasteful, they're a bit less gloriously insane than they used to be, sadly. Still, the Italians will be relatively happy with three out of the top 5 on the day...

Stage:
1 Chloe Hosking (Wiggle-High 5) AUS 2'50'14
2 Marta Tagliaferro (Alé-Cipollini) ITA +st
3 Giorgia Bronzini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +st
4 Roxane Fournier (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86) FRA +st
5 Barbara Guarischi (Canyon-SRAM) ITA +st
6 Lucinda Brand (Rabo-Liv) NED +st
7 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +st
8 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +st
9 Thalita de Jong (Rabo-Liv) NED +st
10 Michela Pavin (INPA-Bianchi) ITA +st

GC
1 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 8'19'25
2 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +3"
3 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +16"
4 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +24"
5 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +36"
6 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +37"
7 Rasa Leleivyte (Aromitalia-Vaiano) LTU +43"
8 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +45"
9 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +1'13"
10 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'14"

Tatiana will be in the maglia azzurra tomorrow as Elisa's leading the GPM which takes precedence.

It's interesting to note that RAI are giving us - on RAI Sport 1 no less - these short highlight packages DURING the quiet sections of the Tour stage. As long as we don't have to sacrifice the lengthier round-ups on RAI Sport 2 or 3 for them, it's a great way to increase the reach. Appending the Giro Rosa highlights to the Tour's highlights have been a way that RAI have used for a few years now, but embedded summaries are new.

Tomorrow's stage is hillier and tougher than today's but those obstacles there are are quite some way from the finish; with the MORTIROLO looming on Wednesday, it's quite likely that we will not see any significant moves from the GC elites; those who lost out on stages 1 and 2 may take a couple of risks like Lichtenberg did in that flat break last year, but I expect either an unthreatening break or a sprint tomorrow, possibly from a slightly smaller group than today though.

 

[Jonhard]

Thanks for the reporting LS.

Anna van der Breggen to Boels feels like a momentous transfer, somehow. Since they took Danny Stam, Lizzie and Blaaki from the rubble of AA Drink-Leontien, they've slowly turned into a massive orange juggernaut. Stam deserves some credit for that.

On the subject of DSs, losing Egon van Kessel and bringing in Donna Rae Szalinski seems to be working for Wiggle. Two stages, podium for ELB and Mara warming up for the big one tomorrow.

I did also wonder if AVDB's announcement makes Katy X the main chance for Rabo this Giro... would be fair enough imo.

 

[King Boonen]

Was a while ago, but just want to highlight Neah Evans of Glasgow Wheelers, one of the clubs I ride with, coming 9th in the British National Road Race Championships. She's only been riding a couple of years and only just switched from track to road, brilliant achievement and was great to put the highlights on and see the Wheelers jersey right there at the finish

 

[Libertine Seguros]

At some point, however, Boels are just going to become too top-heavy to be able to keep hold of their talent. Rabo have only been able to keep theirs because of injuries up until this point. There's going to be at least somebody who will baulk at the number of opportunities they have because it's not like they're lacking in the domestiques department either with the likes of Majerus, Dideriksen and Harris having stellar seasons in support of their leaders too. Accommodating the requirements of all of those leaders is going to be difficult. That said, while we're told that Rabo has found a replacement sponsor so will keep going, it may well be that with the stacked lineup they have, they were never going to be able to keep all of them. There was a good chance after the first weekend that Kasia would have been becoming Rabo's option A in the GC anyhow, but suddenly things get interesting.

However, before we get to that, we had a sprint stage today. Which, for reasons beknownst to nobody, CQ have attributed at the time of writing to Mara Abbott. I'm sure they'll correct it to the real winner in due course, but that really would have been something, trying to figure out a situation where Mara Abbott can win a sprint is something that has confused the finest mathematical minds of our generation for years. The real winner was still a surprise in a field sprint, but nothing like the same level of surprise - Canyon did a lot of work for Barbara Guarischi yesterday, and today they profited, only the sprint seems to have been a very strange one as the riders contesting it were not the typical names; Tiffany Cromwell is well known as an all-rounder and she does have a strong sprint, but she's always been one of those riders who racks up top 5s and top 10s in all manner of classics thanks to that ability, not somebody who wins a flat bunch sprint - however, win the flat bunch sprint she did!

Much like yesterday, the bunch were not keen to allow many groups to get a gap, although some did get a bit of time, which explains why Hungarian champion Monika Kírály was able to best the likes of Elisa Longo Borghini in the one QOM climb of the day. However, with the intermediate at just inside 30km from the line, it was in Boels' interest to hold everything together - especially as Megan Guarnier continued to chip away bonus seconds; while her teammate leads the GC, Megan was on the overall podium last year and this is an area she holds the cards over pretty much everybody reasonably considered part of the maglia rosa mix.

Behind Cromwell, the next few riders were also fairly surprising, as we saw Maria Giulia Confalonieri of the unexpected wildcard team Lensworld-Zannata, and Aude Biannic, the second choice sprinter in the Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86 lineup, round off the podium. Marta Bastianelli restored a bit of pride for regular sprinters with a 4th place, but for the most part the biggest teams seemed content to allow the smaller teams to duke it out, knowing their resources will be stretched in tomorrow's short but brutal stage including the Mortirolo. As a result there are some interesting names in that top 10 - including the 21yo Astana rider Arianna Fidanza, and Soraya Paladin, who was 3rd in Trentino and is more thought of as a climber (she even has a tattoo reading "when the road rises you can't hide), ahead of established names like Kirchmann. Perhaps of most importance is the splits in the bunch and riders being out of position. While most of these were of little importance, Mara Abbott was, for some reason, down in the 80s in terms of her position in the péloton and lost 13" at the line. She only seemingly had Hagiwara for company with Wiggle's other riders staying with ELB. Combined with Guarnier gaining 3" that's a potentially crucial few seconds, given there's still plenty of time after the summit in tomorrow's stage and Abbott is really, really not renowned for her descending (Mara Basso more or less makes her name entirely on the back of MTFs in Europe).

So, stage top 10:
1 Tiffany Cromwell (Canyon-SRAM) AUS 2'02'24
2 Maria Giulia Confalonieri (Lensworld-Zannata) ITA +st
3 Aude Biannic (Poitou Charentes-Futuroscope '86) FRA +st
4 Marta Bastianelli (Alé-Cipollini) ITA +st
5 Michela Pavin (INPA-Bianchi) ITA +st
6 Arianna Fidanza (Astana) ITA +st
7 Soraya Paladin (Top Girls-Fassa Bortolo) ITA +st
8 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +st
9 Sheyla Gutiérrez Ruíz (Cylance) ESP +st
10 Ilaria Sanguineti (BePink) ITA +st

GC:
1 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA 10'21'49
2 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +3"
3 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +13"
4 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +24"
5 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +36"
6 Rasa Leleivyte (Aromitalia-Vaiano) LTU +43"
7 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +45"
8 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA +50"
9 Leah Kirchmann (Team Liv-Plantur) CAN +1'13"
10 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'14"

While not likely to impact tomorrow per se owing to the short and, well, Mortirolo-filled stage, perhaps the most important thing to happen GC-wise today was Christine Majerus crashing out, which leaves Boels with just five riders. Armitstead has been dropping time to be fresh as a helper the last couple of days, but a lot of pressure will now fall onto Dideriksen and Canuel as Majerus is perhaps the team's most important engine.

 

[jmdirt]

After her years with CSH, I count TC as a USAussie!

 

[jmdirt]

I have clearly shown in my previous posts that IMO Kristin Armstrong should be on the Olympic team because she is the two time defending Olympic Champion. I do feel sorry for Carmen Small, but how many Olympic and World titles does she have? She said that she beat the best, but she did not beat the best at their best. The two ladies that she is referring to raced in Cali. the week before. What did Small do the week before? Rest, and focus. She can't try to hang them on not being able to recover, when she did not have to do so herself.

"There were rationalizations – they had just raced Tour of California and weren’t able to recover… it was too humid… Rio is humid, the road race there is just a few days before the Time Trial. If you aren’t willing to go and give it your all for each event and you admit you can’t recover in time to be your best should you really be representing your country in the Olympics?"

"I had a great spring campaign and I think just that alone they’d want to take me for the road race because I can be an incredible support rider."

So let me understand, because she can be an incredible support rider, she should take the place of someone who has shown (2X & 2X) that she can win Olympic and World Championships? That doesn't strengthen her argument.

If the criteria was winning nats., there would be no question, but since that isn't the (only) criteria, I don't see how she wins this arbitration.

This sucks no matter how it comes out!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Tomorrow is the day of reckoning for the women, a 78km stage, but that 78km includes the Mortirolo - from Mazzo - 35km from the line. After the summit there's 15km of flat along the summit road then they descend from Trivigno into Tirano for the finish.

Now, you would think looking at this - a 12km at 10% climb - that Mara Abbott should surely be the favourite, but it is worth noting that she hasn't won a race in Europe that isn't an MTF since the Livigno stage of the Giro... in 2010. She's more one-dimensional than the Pooley of that era, who would frequently lose minutes in the descent, and this will possibly mean that unless she is absolutely on her best form, she mightn't be able to open up a gap on the climb that can't be clawed back on the descent. She has the benefit that Elisa Longo Borghini may well be able to anchor and disrupt any chase group, but at the same time Mara helped chase a group with Elisa in it down in the San Fior stage and is known as a less than selfless teammate (this also ties back into the Olympic selection discussion btw), would anybody blame Elisa either way? There's also the chance that Boels have multiple riders there (well, Rabo too if Anna VDB has recovered some form) if Guarnier can last out the steep gradients better than she did to Montenars. And what of Lichtenberg, who's always preferred the longer climbs and if it goes down to pure mano a mano battling, she is less disadvantaged than she often is when outnumbered among the group?

We've at least learnt more about one of the more noticeable absentees from the race; Francesca Cauz was down to ride Trentino but disappeared from the race shortly beforehand and hasn't raced since even with the Giro favouring the climbing specialist and a stage in her hometown for the third consecutive year; a local newspaper from the Treviso area writes that she has had a private setback that has caused her to ask for a sabbatical, a "pause for reflection" was the rather poetic term used. She's been struggling throughout this year, even taking into account her historic inconsistency and the limited number of races for the one-dimensional climber. Without any further knowledge of the reasons anything more is speculation, but it remains to be seen when we'll see her clamber on again.

On the US selection, I feel the Abbott wildcard really throws a spanner into the works. However, I feel it all should come down to one thing: what does USAC feel it has a better chance of winning, the RR with Guarnier or Stevens, or the ITT with Armstrong? I feel they need to be absolutely convinced Armstrong can medal; if they feel otherwise then they ought to prioritise the RR, in which case you surely want the best possible support for your leaders, and Small offers demonstrably more on 2016 evidence than Armstrong in that respect. There's also a lot of resentment both inside and outside the péloton - you can see it also in Britain with Pooley's selection ahead of Dani King for the same reason - for people who are coming out of retirement and doing reduced calendars being prioritized over those who ride over the full calendar to put themselves in the shop window. And yes, Kristin's shown herself to be able to win the Olympics and Worlds time trials... but she hasn't won the Worlds since 2009, and Carmen Small has podiumed the Worlds more recently (in 2013). I mean, when Kristin last won the Worlds, Cervélo and HTC-Columbia were the top teams, and neither Megan Guarnier nor Evelyn Stevens had turned pro. She's shown the class to be able to win those races, but USAC have to consider how relevant is the level that somebody was at in 2008-9 to how they are performing now?

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

Tomorrow is the day of reckoning for the women, a 78km stage, but that 78km includes the Mortirolo - from Mazzo - 35km from the line. After the summit there's 15km of flat along the summit road then they descend from Trivigno into Tirano for the finish.

Now, you would think looking at this - a 12km at 10% climb - that Mara Abbott should surely be the favourite, but it is worth noting that she hasn't won a race in Europe that isn't an MTF since the Livigno stage of the Giro... in 2010. She's more one-dimensional than the Pooley of that era, who would frequently lose minutes in the descent, and this will possibly mean that unless she is absolutely on her best form, she mightn't be able to open up a gap on the climb that can't be clawed back on the descent. She has the benefit that Elisa Longo Borghini may well be able to anchor and disrupt any chase group, but at the same time Mara helped chase a group with Elisa in it down in the San Fior stage and is known as a less than selfless teammate (this also ties back into the Olympic selection discussion btw), would anybody blame Elisa either way? There's also the chance that Boels have multiple riders there (well, Rabo too if Anna VDB has recovered some form) if Guarnier can last out the steep gradients better than she did to Montenars. And what of Lichtenberg, who's always preferred the longer climbs and if it goes down to pure mano a mano battling, she is less disadvantaged than she often is when outnumbered among the group?

We've at least learnt more about one of the more noticeable absentees from the race; Francesca Cauz was down to ride Trentino but disappeared from the race shortly beforehand and hasn't raced since even with the Giro favouring the climbing specialist and a stage in her hometown for the third consecutive year; a local newspaper from the Treviso area writes that she has had a private setback that has caused her to ask for a sabbatical, a "pause for reflection" was the rather poetic term used. She's been struggling throughout this year, even taking into account her historic inconsistency and the limited number of races for the one-dimensional climber. Without any further knowledge of the reasons anything more is speculation, but it remains to be seen when we'll see her clamber on again.

On the US selection, I feel the Abbott wildcard really throws a spanner into the works. However, I feel it all should come down to one thing: what does USAC feel it has a better chance of winning, the RR with Guarnier or Stevens, or the ITT with Armstrong? I feel they need to be absolutely convinced Armstrong can medal; if they feel otherwise then they ought to prioritise the RR, in which case you surely want the best possible support for your leaders, and Small offers demonstrably more on 2016 evidence than Armstrong in that respect. There's also a lot of resentment both inside and outside the péloton - you can see it also in Britain with Pooley's selection ahead of Dani King for the same reason - for people who are coming out of retirement and doing reduced calendars being prioritized over those who ride over the full calendar to put themselves in the shop window. And yes, Kristin's shown herself to be able to win the Olympics and Worlds time trials... but she hasn't won the Worlds since 2009, and Carmen Small has podiumed the Worlds more recently (in 2013). I mean, when Kristin last won the Worlds, Cervélo and HTC-Columbia were the top teams, and neither Megan Guarnier nor Evelyn Stevens had turned pro. She's shown the class to be able to win those races, but USAC have to consider how relevant is the level that somebody was at in 2008-9 to how they are performing now?

2012 Olympic Champ
Strong second half of last year
Top USA at 2015 Wolds (a minute + ahead of CS)
Strong this spring especially in TTs.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

2012 Olympic Champ
Strong second half of last year
Top USA at 2015 Wolds (a minute + ahead of CS)
Strong this spring especially in TTs.

But what's the evidence that she's capable of podiuming the Olympic TT this year?

I mean that as a serious question, not as a rhetorical one. There's no question about her level some years ago. But you could say that about Jan Ullrich too and Jan is younger than her.

 

[jmdirt]

Re: Re:

2012 Olympic Champ
Strong second half of last year
Top USA at 2015 Wolds (a minute + ahead of CS)
Strong this spring especially in TTs.

But what's the evidence that she's capable of podiuming the Olympic TT this year?

I mean that as a serious question, not as a rhetorical one. There's no question about her level some years ago. But you could say that about Jan Ullrich too and Jan is younger than her.

I already posted the evidence (see bold).

JU has exactly zero results in the last two seasons so you could not make an argument for him.

 

[jmdirt]

WHOOHOO Mara!

 

[jaylew]

Yes, Mara!!! She had 5 minutes at one point and crashed on the descent? Is that correct?

 

[Jonhard]

It is. It was Mara to the max… drop everyone when it gets really steep and long, struggle on the downhill. She did well to get back on and still take the jersey.

For Wiggle, ELB is also nicely placed with a TT coming. I reckon she’s the best TTer within a minute of Mara, who I fear needed more than 10 seconds from today. It would need an immense ride to take more than a few seconds tomorrow, as the big climb is miles from the finish and the final climb probably not enough to put serious time into Guarnier. The last stage is also slightly lumpy but the Mortirolo was the big one.

ELB, on the other hand, could take time out of Guarnier in the TT and shouldn't really be losing too much elsewhere. Mara is Wiggle's official #1 but they can't help her in the TT.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

My reaction to looking at the stage results today, was first a bit of frustration and annoyance (I think it is quite clear by now that while I appreciate her climbing, I am definitely not a Mara Abbott fan, which is mostly for the same reasons that I am not an Andy Schleck fan, with a touch of my doe-eyed Emma Pooley fandom and bitterness about Emma never winning a Giro colouring it for good measure)... then a bit of intrigued curiosity at the small size of the gap as, as predicted, Mara was easily the best on the climb but lost a lot of time descending, because she's Mara and that's what happens, she's a complete one trick pony, but it's one hell of a trick... then a bit of elation that Lichtenberg is still right up there in the mix, finishing in the first chase group... then the onset of concern at being unable to find Niewiadoma in the results, followed by shoulders slumping. Certainly the Pole had a bad day at a bad time, but so did Evelyn Stevens who's far more experienced as a race leader, and described after the race how everything was seemingly under control but she lost her nerve a bit on the descent compared to the rest of the Guarnier/Guderzo group. Notwithstanding that of the big teams, I am quite partial to Rabo, especially over the last couple of years where, without the dominant force that is Marianne Vos and lacking in sprint options they've frequently been the most aggressive team. On the plus side, some signs of life from Emma Pooley, followed unfortunately by some epic Pooley-esque descending from the days before she worked on it to finish 11th on the day some four minutes behind Abbott after chasing her on the climb.

Mara's going to need to hope that that crash doesn't have any lasting effects; she needs more time on Signora della Guardia as the narrowness of her lead is far from enough for her TT skills, as she would realistically expect to lose time compared to everybody else in the upper echelons of the GC, including some fairly significant time to van der Breggen, Stevens and Longo Borghini (plus Guderzo if she's back to her best), but the fact she had to fight the last half of the stage alone whereas others were in groups may have an effect in the long run.

Niewiadoma posted after the stage that she had been feeling good for much of the climb but then one short section completely spelled doom for her (and her GC chances), and once she was gone she was on empty and alone, which suggests a touch of naïveté about pacing on the climb, which is longer than we see in most women's races. She'll be back, of course, she's only 21 so plenty of time to learn how to "do a Sastre".

I'd like to draw some attention to the excellent finish from BePink's Belarusian Kseniya Tuhai as well - finishing well ahead of her more illustrious compatriot and friend Alena Amialiusik who's several years her senior as well. Also, we should all love BePink this week - they've committed to, in the absence of more detailed race reportage, breaking from their tradition of reporting on their own riders through the race to instead producing neutral updates in real time from race radio to keep fans abreast of what's going on.

Stage:
1 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA 2'40'23
2 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +37"
3 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +37"
4 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +37"
5 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +37"
6 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +1'36"
7 Kseniya Tuhai (BePink) BLR +1'51"
8 Yevgeniya Vysotska (Hagens Bermans-Supermint) UKR +1'52"
9 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +2'02"
10 Doris Schweizer (Cylance) SUI +2'48"

GC:
1 Mara Abbott (Wiggle-High 5) USA 13'02'52
2 Megan Guarnier (Boels-Dolmans) USA +10"
3 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High5) ITA +15"
4 Claudia Lichtenberg (Lotto-Soudal) GER +33"
5 Tatiana Guderzo (Hitec Products) ITA +38"
6 Evelyn Stevens (Boels-Dolmans) USA +1'22"
7 Anna van der Breggen (Rabo-Liv) NED +2'10"
8 Yevgeniya Vysotska (Hagens Bermans-Supermint) UKR +3'04"
9 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Rabo-Liv) POL +3'49"
10 Doris Schweizer (Cylance) SUI +4'42"

Edit:
Here's the video. Amusing that Giada Borgato not only can't get used to Claudia Lichtenberg's married name when proposing her as a major protagonist for the day, but still can't pronounce her maiden name (she is not Heinrich's sister) the stage appears to have started out in much more conventional men's racing style, with an unthreatening break allowed to gain time before armageddon broke out on the Mortirolo; this is something you don't often see to the same extent owing to the lower number of long stage races among the women - in four or five stage races it's harder for a break to become GC irrelevances enough that they're given that rope, but in the Giro or the Thüringen Rundfahrt it sometimes happens. Pooley was the first to open hostilities because, well, she's Emma Pooley, but then Abbott got the diesel into the right gear, and when she gets it dialled in there's nobody that can stop her. The climb has to be long enough for her to build that tempo up, but once she gets there, she's going to grind everybody into dust. While I compare her to Andy Schleck because of her skillset, build relative to competition (very tall for a climber, slender, upright out of the saddle), selective calendar, attitudes and behaviours, as an actual climber she's a lot more like Ivan Basso; the changes up and down in pace are not that natural to her (which was also a factor in the infamous Rabo roadblock stage two years ago) but that doesn't bother her because the pace she can deal with is greater than anybody else. For a few glorious minutes, it was like turning the clock back six years to the days when any given mountainous stage race came down to an Abbott-Pooley duel. However, the fact that one is still an active competitor and the other has spent time out of the sport became painfully clear as the climb went on.