Amstel Gold coming up, with the first edition since early in the century. It's a 121km race with 17 climbs in all, unfortunately only a couple of the hardest ones from the men's race (though we do get Keutenberg), and three times around the finishing circuit with Geulhemmerweg and the useless waste of space that is Bemelerberg, the introduction of which following the 2012 Worlds has left us with a complete damp squib of a run-in.
Obviously this is a nice new hilly race, although the new finishing circuit does render it more along the lines of Plouay in character, with the shallow climb then the short but jagged climb last up, although the run-in is shorter than in the GP de Pooley. The last time it was run, Nicole Cooke won in 2003 ahead of Olivia Gollan and Edita Pucinskaite, so that's how far back we're looking, and therefore it's more or less to be treated as a new race; perhaps a couple of the riders on the startlist such as Trixi Worrack and Amber Neben may remember the previous versions, but most had yet to turn pro and some of the contenders will just have been small children at the time.
Nevertheless, the riders do get to use the Limburg region sometimes in other races that can give us an indication of what to expect. Obviously this region was used in the 2012 World Championships, which give us our first indication. Marianne Vos won with a clear gap ahead of Rachel Neylan and Elisa Longo Borghini, while Neben was 4th and Anna van der Breggen had her first real breakout performance to come 5th after bossing smaller races that year and working like a beast for Vos, behind them an 18-year-old Rossella Ratto was 6th and the group was over 4 minutes back. All of those six are listed starters, though it is a long time ago now; Vos is still good but has only shown occasionally the dominant force she used to be since her return, Neylan is now 35 and her palmarès is inconsistent, and Neben has retired and come back a couple of time and is now 42. However, Elisa Longo Borghini is looking to regain the World Tour leader's jersey from Coryn Rivera, and Anna van der Breggen is the reigning winner of Flèche Wallonne and has plenty of aptitude for the hilly courses.
The next race we can point to is last year's Boels Rentals Ladies' Tour, which featured a stage over 119km around Valkenburg finishing just after the Cauberg in early September last year and can be seen as almost a dry run for this race. Kasia Niewiadoma won after an attack on the Cauberg, to finish ahead of Ellen van Dijk and Alena Amialiusik, with van der Breggen 4th, Amy Pieters 5th and Chantal Blaak 6th. All six start tomorrow's race, although the fact this was part of a stage race does affect how we can read it somewhat; for example, coming off the back of the Olympics, some riders weren't on form, and Lizzie Armitstead was one of these; she'd been an unstoppable force over similar terrain in the spring, but in September she was a shadow of the rider she'd been earlier in the season and was relegated to domestique duties, a rare sight outside the Giro since she tends to base her calendar around the races she would be leader at.
Then there's the Boels Rentals Hills Classic, which was between Sittard-Geleen and Berg en Teblijt in its most recent incarnation, which parcours-wise is to all intents and purposes the women's Amstel Gold in years gone by, having incorporated the same finishing circuit as tomorrow's race, so is the most direct comparison, although there was only a couple of circuits and the climbs earlier in the race didn't include the likes of Keutenberg. The problem is, it ran in late May, so form cycles were completely skewed out as opposed to tomorrow at the height of Classics season, and because of the US mini-season in May that affected the field too. Nevertheless, 2016's race saw Lizzie Armitstead win from a group of three alongside Annemiek van Vleuten and Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, with Vos and van Dijk chasing 20" back. The previous year on the same course, Lizzie also won, with her, Emma Johansson, Kasia Niewiadoma, Sabrina Stultiens and Elisa Longo Borghini opening up a small gap on the Cauberg over a select chase group and holding on to the line.
Finally, there's the European Games RR at Plumelec which featured a similar climb in the Côte de Cadoudal then a short flattening out before the line, albeit not as long as the one here in Valkenburg. Anna van der Breggen won a sprint of 5 from Niewiadoma, Longo Borghini and Amialiusik with Rasa Leleivyte trailing a second behind; on a flatter run-in Rasa would have had to have been favourite given her sprint finish but with the finish too close to the climb for her to get on and recover sufficiently she didn't have the opportunity to make the most of it. Her team isn't at the Amstel Gold Race, but the other four back up previous results on this kind of terrain to show that they're the kind of riders who will be at the centre of this.
A big question will be, of course, following what we've seen at Cittiglio and Oudenaarde, can the grimpeuses prevent the likes of Rivera getting back to them in the 1,8km from the Cauberg to the line? Can Rivera chase on the climb herself, and will Sunweb then ride to try to protect Rivera's World Cup lead and give her the chance to sprint, or will somebody else lead, given Kirchmann has a good history on courses like Plouay recently and van Dijk was 2nd in the stage here in September - plus they've also got Sabrina Stultiens, who is a very good punchy climber who was 4th here in the Hills Classic in 2015 but who missed all of last season to injury. Boels have the risk of too many chiefs not enough indians; not sure what the reasoning behind Lizzie wearing dorsal #1 here is, as obviously it's a new race so can't be based on last year, she's not the WC anymore, it's not alphabetical since she's taken on her married name, Rivera's the WT leader, Guarnier's the defending WT champion, and Dideriksen isn't starting, but presumably it gives a hint to the team's intentions. This is more or less Boels' full climbing corps, with Guarnier, Deignan and van der Breggen, Pieters to marshal moves, Blaaki in case it's less broken up and because she went well here in September, and Canuel as climbing domestique du jour. Wiggle have gone with the "engines to back up Elisa and Claudia" approach, not sure it's an ideal course for e.g. Edmondson, but clearly similarities in characteristics to Plouay influence the selections of Cordon-Ragot and Fahlin who went well there last season. Then we're onto the teams who will be absent from the Giro and that ruins a lot of the fun. WM3 obviously have two key weapons - Vos who won the World Championships here in 2012, and Niewiadoma who won the Valkenburg stage in the Boels Rentals tour. The former may not be the same athlete she was then, but the latter is not going to die wondering, attacking more or less everytime the road goes uphill in the closing stages of the race so if she has even remotely good legs on the day then I'd expect to see her at the business end. Lauren Kitchen is probably the team's other candidate, she has a good sprint after obstacles, but realistically I think Kasia will be the one for them. Sunweb I've already mentioned, but Canyon are pretty stacked too. I think the run-in is too hilly for Brennauer but if they can't drop her she's a sprinting threat; she was on the podium in the 2015 stage of the Boels Rentals Tour here, but not against the same level of field as she will be here. Ferrand-Prévot is finding her feet, and Amialiusik was 2nd here in September as well as 4th in Plumelec in the European Championships, so is the logical leader. Cecchini, meanwhile, is the team's best placed rider in the World Tour and I don't think the course is beyond her given one of her Italian championships was won at Supergà.
Although Rachel Neylan won a silver medal here in the 2012 Worlds, I think for Orica, Amanda Spratt and Annemiek van Vleuten are the more realistic threats; they have far more results in strong fields more recently, and this kind of terrain suits them. For Cervélo, it's going to be interesting, as obviously the logical leader is Ash Moolman-Pasio, who was on the podium of the Hills Classic last year and in the Tour of Britain on similar terrain, but is coming off injury; Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig is a wildcard, with an impressive top 10 in Plumelec and as she gets stronger - she's 21 - she can challenge more. Lisa Klein had a great performance in the Healthy Ageing Tour, but I suspect this may be too hilly for her, while Lotta Lepistö is one of those like Rivera that can get over obstacles and will be making sure the puncheuses and grimpeuses make the race. For Alé, Janneke Ensing is having a good early season and has experience on this terrain - she used to ride for Parkhotel Valkenburg - while Bastianelli is another sprinter-you've-got-to-get-rid-of, and Cylance have Ratto who was great here in 2012 but who has really been in the doldrums the last 2 seasons. They do have Joëlle Numainville who podiumed Plouay last year, although the longer run-in did help that race come back together. Véloconcept's likely leader is Neben for her experience, but it's many years since she had the explosivity for this kind of finish, and she's relied more on diesel climbing and her TT skills in recent times. Bepink have Jackson and Sanguineti who like rolling to bumpy terrain, but they're more likely to enjoy Flèche and LBL with one-dimensional escaladora Kseniya Tuhai. Hitec's hopes are likely to revolve around Vita Heine's escapology and Susanne Andersen's prodigious young talent, while Lares are an interesting wildcard because Thalita de Jong likes this terrain - she won the Valkenburg stage in the Boels Rentals Tour in 2015 - and is coming back to some form, winning some domestic events recently, while Flavia Oliveira is as unpredictable as they come.
Lensworld, rather like BePink, probably have better chances in the other races this week, as their main contenders, Riabchenko and Guderzo, need a more drawn-out climb, while for FDJ don't count Knetemann out, she's been combative throughout the season so far and she was 4th in the Hills Classic back in 2014. BTC are probably less likely to contend, but they won Plouay last year with Eugenia Bujak and are likely hoping for a similar surprise here. For Lotto, Jessie Daams has made the selection at the Hills Classic before, while Kiesenhofer is a bit of a wildcard. The other teams are mostly likely to contribute break riders, although Parkhotel will obviously want to be visible and Pauliena Rooijakkers is not a bad climber.
Obviously this is a nice new hilly race, although the new finishing circuit does render it more along the lines of Plouay in character, with the shallow climb then the short but jagged climb last up, although the run-in is shorter than in the GP de Pooley. The last time it was run, Nicole Cooke won in 2003 ahead of Olivia Gollan and Edita Pucinskaite, so that's how far back we're looking, and therefore it's more or less to be treated as a new race; perhaps a couple of the riders on the startlist such as Trixi Worrack and Amber Neben may remember the previous versions, but most had yet to turn pro and some of the contenders will just have been small children at the time.
Nevertheless, the riders do get to use the Limburg region sometimes in other races that can give us an indication of what to expect. Obviously this region was used in the 2012 World Championships, which give us our first indication. Marianne Vos won with a clear gap ahead of Rachel Neylan and Elisa Longo Borghini, while Neben was 4th and Anna van der Breggen had her first real breakout performance to come 5th after bossing smaller races that year and working like a beast for Vos, behind them an 18-year-old Rossella Ratto was 6th and the group was over 4 minutes back. All of those six are listed starters, though it is a long time ago now; Vos is still good but has only shown occasionally the dominant force she used to be since her return, Neylan is now 35 and her palmarès is inconsistent, and Neben has retired and come back a couple of time and is now 42. However, Elisa Longo Borghini is looking to regain the World Tour leader's jersey from Coryn Rivera, and Anna van der Breggen is the reigning winner of Flèche Wallonne and has plenty of aptitude for the hilly courses.
The next race we can point to is last year's Boels Rentals Ladies' Tour, which featured a stage over 119km around Valkenburg finishing just after the Cauberg in early September last year and can be seen as almost a dry run for this race. Kasia Niewiadoma won after an attack on the Cauberg, to finish ahead of Ellen van Dijk and Alena Amialiusik, with van der Breggen 4th, Amy Pieters 5th and Chantal Blaak 6th. All six start tomorrow's race, although the fact this was part of a stage race does affect how we can read it somewhat; for example, coming off the back of the Olympics, some riders weren't on form, and Lizzie Armitstead was one of these; she'd been an unstoppable force over similar terrain in the spring, but in September she was a shadow of the rider she'd been earlier in the season and was relegated to domestique duties, a rare sight outside the Giro since she tends to base her calendar around the races she would be leader at.
Then there's the Boels Rentals Hills Classic, which was between Sittard-Geleen and Berg en Teblijt in its most recent incarnation, which parcours-wise is to all intents and purposes the women's Amstel Gold in years gone by, having incorporated the same finishing circuit as tomorrow's race, so is the most direct comparison, although there was only a couple of circuits and the climbs earlier in the race didn't include the likes of Keutenberg. The problem is, it ran in late May, so form cycles were completely skewed out as opposed to tomorrow at the height of Classics season, and because of the US mini-season in May that affected the field too. Nevertheless, 2016's race saw Lizzie Armitstead win from a group of three alongside Annemiek van Vleuten and Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, with Vos and van Dijk chasing 20" back. The previous year on the same course, Lizzie also won, with her, Emma Johansson, Kasia Niewiadoma, Sabrina Stultiens and Elisa Longo Borghini opening up a small gap on the Cauberg over a select chase group and holding on to the line.
Finally, there's the European Games RR at Plumelec which featured a similar climb in the Côte de Cadoudal then a short flattening out before the line, albeit not as long as the one here in Valkenburg. Anna van der Breggen won a sprint of 5 from Niewiadoma, Longo Borghini and Amialiusik with Rasa Leleivyte trailing a second behind; on a flatter run-in Rasa would have had to have been favourite given her sprint finish but with the finish too close to the climb for her to get on and recover sufficiently she didn't have the opportunity to make the most of it. Her team isn't at the Amstel Gold Race, but the other four back up previous results on this kind of terrain to show that they're the kind of riders who will be at the centre of this.
A big question will be, of course, following what we've seen at Cittiglio and Oudenaarde, can the grimpeuses prevent the likes of Rivera getting back to them in the 1,8km from the Cauberg to the line? Can Rivera chase on the climb herself, and will Sunweb then ride to try to protect Rivera's World Cup lead and give her the chance to sprint, or will somebody else lead, given Kirchmann has a good history on courses like Plouay recently and van Dijk was 2nd in the stage here in September - plus they've also got Sabrina Stultiens, who is a very good punchy climber who was 4th here in the Hills Classic in 2015 but who missed all of last season to injury. Boels have the risk of too many chiefs not enough indians; not sure what the reasoning behind Lizzie wearing dorsal #1 here is, as obviously it's a new race so can't be based on last year, she's not the WC anymore, it's not alphabetical since she's taken on her married name, Rivera's the WT leader, Guarnier's the defending WT champion, and Dideriksen isn't starting, but presumably it gives a hint to the team's intentions. This is more or less Boels' full climbing corps, with Guarnier, Deignan and van der Breggen, Pieters to marshal moves, Blaaki in case it's less broken up and because she went well here in September, and Canuel as climbing domestique du jour. Wiggle have gone with the "engines to back up Elisa and Claudia" approach, not sure it's an ideal course for e.g. Edmondson, but clearly similarities in characteristics to Plouay influence the selections of Cordon-Ragot and Fahlin who went well there last season. Then we're onto the teams who will be absent from the Giro and that ruins a lot of the fun. WM3 obviously have two key weapons - Vos who won the World Championships here in 2012, and Niewiadoma who won the Valkenburg stage in the Boels Rentals tour. The former may not be the same athlete she was then, but the latter is not going to die wondering, attacking more or less everytime the road goes uphill in the closing stages of the race so if she has even remotely good legs on the day then I'd expect to see her at the business end. Lauren Kitchen is probably the team's other candidate, she has a good sprint after obstacles, but realistically I think Kasia will be the one for them. Sunweb I've already mentioned, but Canyon are pretty stacked too. I think the run-in is too hilly for Brennauer but if they can't drop her she's a sprinting threat; she was on the podium in the 2015 stage of the Boels Rentals Tour here, but not against the same level of field as she will be here. Ferrand-Prévot is finding her feet, and Amialiusik was 2nd here in September as well as 4th in Plumelec in the European Championships, so is the logical leader. Cecchini, meanwhile, is the team's best placed rider in the World Tour and I don't think the course is beyond her given one of her Italian championships was won at Supergà.
Although Rachel Neylan won a silver medal here in the 2012 Worlds, I think for Orica, Amanda Spratt and Annemiek van Vleuten are the more realistic threats; they have far more results in strong fields more recently, and this kind of terrain suits them. For Cervélo, it's going to be interesting, as obviously the logical leader is Ash Moolman-Pasio, who was on the podium of the Hills Classic last year and in the Tour of Britain on similar terrain, but is coming off injury; Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig is a wildcard, with an impressive top 10 in Plumelec and as she gets stronger - she's 21 - she can challenge more. Lisa Klein had a great performance in the Healthy Ageing Tour, but I suspect this may be too hilly for her, while Lotta Lepistö is one of those like Rivera that can get over obstacles and will be making sure the puncheuses and grimpeuses make the race. For Alé, Janneke Ensing is having a good early season and has experience on this terrain - she used to ride for Parkhotel Valkenburg - while Bastianelli is another sprinter-you've-got-to-get-rid-of, and Cylance have Ratto who was great here in 2012 but who has really been in the doldrums the last 2 seasons. They do have Joëlle Numainville who podiumed Plouay last year, although the longer run-in did help that race come back together. Véloconcept's likely leader is Neben for her experience, but it's many years since she had the explosivity for this kind of finish, and she's relied more on diesel climbing and her TT skills in recent times. Bepink have Jackson and Sanguineti who like rolling to bumpy terrain, but they're more likely to enjoy Flèche and LBL with one-dimensional escaladora Kseniya Tuhai. Hitec's hopes are likely to revolve around Vita Heine's escapology and Susanne Andersen's prodigious young talent, while Lares are an interesting wildcard because Thalita de Jong likes this terrain - she won the Valkenburg stage in the Boels Rentals Tour in 2015 - and is coming back to some form, winning some domestic events recently, while Flavia Oliveira is as unpredictable as they come.
Lensworld, rather like BePink, probably have better chances in the other races this week, as their main contenders, Riabchenko and Guderzo, need a more drawn-out climb, while for FDJ don't count Knetemann out, she's been combative throughout the season so far and she was 4th in the Hills Classic back in 2014. BTC are probably less likely to contend, but they won Plouay last year with Eugenia Bujak and are likely hoping for a similar surprise here. For Lotto, Jessie Daams has made the selection at the Hills Classic before, while Kiesenhofer is a bit of a wildcard. The other teams are mostly likely to contribute break riders, although Parkhotel will obviously want to be visible and Pauliena Rooijakkers is not a bad climber.
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