Right, women's Liège-Bastogne-Liège today.
Firstly, the Omloop van Borsele and its associated TT took place over the last two days; they are however another victim of the development of the women's versions of major Classics as their field has been decimated by the presence of a much stronger Ardennes campaign, and have requested a change of dates for 2018. The last few editions of the TT have been won by Ellen van Dijk until Lisa Brennauer this year, who beat van Dijk and Chantal Blaak; this year Hayley Simmonds of Team WNT beat the Parkhotel Valkenburg duo of Nathalie van Gogh and Hanna Solovey. In the Omloop van Borsele one day race itself, Team WM3 finally broke their duck of race victories, with Riejanne Markus besting Eugenia Bujak of BTC City-Ljubljana in a two-up sprint - not the result I'd have predicted between the two of them! The duo came in just under a minute shy of the 50-strong péloton with Markus' teammate and all-round obvious legend Marianne Vos beating Boels' Jip van den Bos (here riding as a guest for a regional team) and 18-year-old Norwegian prospect Susanne Andersen.
Leading into LBL, there's a bit less to go on; it's not a historic event we can look at the past results of, like Flèche, and it's not a finish we are used to seeing in secondary races like Amstel Gold, so it's a bit more of a crapshoot. All we really have is rider strength and current form, and considering both Ardennes classics so far have ended with the exact same podium, that has to feature strongly in predictions. What we've learned so far is that van der Breggen is the strongest rider and prefers not to race a sprint up the final climb, Boels are comfortably the strongest team and are likely to put the majority of their team in the selection, Niewiadoma is just about the strongest and most combative climber but is likely to be too isolated late on, Deignan is in the best climbing form we've seen from her in a long time, and if the climbers don't make the most of it Coryn Rivera is not likely to be as far back as they would prefer.
The climbs of LBL are sometimes a bit longer than those of the other Ardennes which means Lizzie may not be as obvious a favourite, but she has won Binda before and is clearly on excellent form for these hilly races, and with Boels' strength in depth she will be afforded the chance to preserve energy for a finale, and if it does go to the finale, the Ans climb suits her best out of the late ones and could well give her the chance to round off her campaign with a win. Longo Borghini is back for Wiggle; with 8 weeks holding 8 WT races, could that break meaning she doesn't have Flèche Wallonne in her legs be beneficial today, or is she not truly over her sickness? How close is Guarnier to returning to full fitness, as Boels' dominance has meant they've been able to carry her almost as a passenger to let her ease back to shape. With the gaps between climbs, although she's suffered on the steepest stuff this week, Annemiek van Vleuten can't be counted out either, while Canyon will surely be out for revenge after a very disappointing race on Wednesday and Moolman-Pasio has a strong sprint from a group of climbers too.
Realistically, we're going in partially blind here; we know the kind of riders that are on form and that the course favours, but with this being a brand new race and the women not normally taking on these climbs, it will be intriguing to see how it unfolds.
So, the breakaway duo of Aude Biannic (FDJ) and Jeanne Korevaar (WM3) gained a good couple of minutes, but when the hammer was put down on the Côte de la Vecquée, they were brought back. A good sustained climb of that length isn't all too common in women's cycling, especially at this time of the year, and with positioning also being vital the climb has trimmed the péloton to around 40. Tiffany Cromwell is trying to solo from here.
Cromwell caught on La Redoute, and the group splits in two. van Vleuten first over the summit. About a minute between the two groups approaching La Roche-aux-Faucons, with Roxane Knetemann around 15" up on the first of the two groups. Boels, as expected, have numbers in the front group and are driving the pace to ensure the second one doesn't catch back on. Not yet clear if any major contenders have missed the split.
On Roche-aux-Faucons, it was time for the all-important moves, and... yup, it was Kasia Niewiadoma who initiated the big move that broke the field, because the road went uphill and therefore she is commanded by an insatiable desire for attacking cycling. She briefly had a gap but van der Breggen rode across to her with Elisa Longo Borghini, Lizzie Deignan and Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, and so there's now a quintet of the strongest hilly classics riders at the front. The problem is, I clearly see a repeat of the last two races in the making, as Boels have the advantage of numbers, and the best time triallist and the best sprinter in the group. A lot will hinge on whether they try the same trick again and if so, whether having the extra pair of legs in the group compared to Amstel Gold with Ash will be a factor, as Kasia has done a LOT of work over the last few days chasing and attacking and ELB missed Flèche Wallonne sick and wasn't at her best in Amstel. There's 12 riders chasing, but the elite group has improved its lead to 40".
Orica pulling hard to give Annemiek a chance to get across, while at the same time the cohesion in the front group is going down approaching St-Nicolas, mainly as Kasia, Elisa and Ash want Boels to do the work rather than wipe them out for a 1-2 like in the previous races. 20" gap at the base of St-Nic. And because ASO love women's cycling, they're showing show-jumping on the big screens at the finish.
Now on St-Nicolas, Kasia attacks again! ELB dropped, as is Lizzie but Deignan has a bit more in the tank and is able to recollect herself to rejoin the lead trio. We now know that to stand any chance, either Niewiadoma or Moolman-Pasio must distance Deignan as she has the legs. They need to go hard early in Ans, as she's not responding to the attacks with explosivity, but is able to recover and match them... which means, of course... it's the perfect time for Anna van der Breggen to go, just like she did in Valkenburg, and just like she did in Huy - as everybody's steeling themselves for the final climb, she makes use of the flat beforehand because of the advantage Boels have in numbers. It's smart riding, it's sensible riding, and it's won her two races against the same opposition this week, why wouldn't it work again? And indeed, Lizzie sits up and asks the others to go to the front (as she damn well should), and the elastic snaps, Anna has 17"...
OK, Ash and Kasia are spent, and Anna will win. Worse for them yet, the chasers split up on St-Nicolas and Shara Gillow and a couple of others have joined ELB in the chase and they've made contact with the following trio before the final ramps... and... yea, here we go again. 2nd place for Lizzie winning the sprint. And guess what? Kasia was the strongest on the climb into Ans too and takes her third 3rd place of the week!
Really, the Boels domination has been due to superb tactical acumen (you don't need to have different tactics, if you're strong enough that the same tactic is almost impossible to defend against, and each time Anna has timed it just right) and the fact that the weaker climber of the two (although for Ardennes-sized hills Lizzie is perfectly strong of course) then had the opportunity to ride the coattails of the strongest ones on opposing teams in the run-in, and the fact she's got a sprint which is easily dominant over the likes of Longo Borghini and Niewiadoma who don't have a sprint means they can't afford to not go too deep trying to distance her. Kasia almost did it today, getting a good gap on St-Nicolas, but Lizzie rode smart and strong and was able to slowly reel the front trio back in, much like she did to Kasia in Strade Bianche last year.
It's somewhat disappointing to see the same podium in all three Ardennes races, but it does clearly state who the strongest riders were. If anything Niewiadoma could be considered arguably the strongest rider of the week but the fact she's spent so much of the important parts of the race isolated from her team while Boels had a lot of numbers and that she has been the one that has initiated the decisive selections in all three races has meant that she's down on remaining energy towards the end of the race when Anna's attacked; going on the flat is not best suited to her, but because of Anna's great TT skills and the desire to not give Lizzie a free ride has meant by the time they get to the bottom of the final climb Anna's gap has been decisive. And much as I dislike her and make no secret of it, Deignan's form this week has been the best climbing form we've seen from her in years, and she does deserve some reward for that given that her northern Classics campaign was uncharacteristically quiet.
This one has, in the chase group, led to a much more climber-centric top 10 than at Amstel Gold, and the more sustained nature of the climbs has helped traditional climber types like Lichtenberg up near the front (considering she has probably the outright worst sprint in the péloton now that Mara has retired and Anna VDB has improved that side of her game).
1 Anna van der Breggen (Boels-Dolmans) NED 3'42'17
2 Lizzie Deignan (Boels-Dolmans) GBR +17"
3 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (WM3 Pro Cycling) POL +19"
4 Eleonora van Dijk (Team Sunweb) NED +31"
5 Annemiek van Vleuten (Orica-AIS) NED +st
6 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (Cervélo-Bigla) RSA +st
7 Shara Gillow (FDJ-Futuroscope '86) AUS +st
8 Olga Zabelinskaya (BePink-Cogeas) RUS +st
9 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +34"
10 Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig (Cervélo-Bigla) DEN +41"
Seems that Coryn was a way down, and confirmed that with her 5th place today Annemiek van Vleuten assumes the lead of the WWT overall. Ludwig expands on her lead in the U23 category, which she now has a pretty commanding lead in, although there's a few flatter events coming up she's unlikely to be too strong in. Because it's done on year group rather than outright age, Niewiadoma is ineligible despite that the 2017 WWT will end before her 23rd birthday - however that's probably for the better for the competition.
Janneke Ensing was just outside the top 10 after having a mechanical in the sprint for 4th. The next group was led across the road by Megan Guarnier, her best result of the week and the first sign she's getting back to what should be her level - also in that group after a long injury layoff is Sabrina Stultiens, along with Claudia Lichtenberg and Leah Kirchmann.
Firstly, the Omloop van Borsele and its associated TT took place over the last two days; they are however another victim of the development of the women's versions of major Classics as their field has been decimated by the presence of a much stronger Ardennes campaign, and have requested a change of dates for 2018. The last few editions of the TT have been won by Ellen van Dijk until Lisa Brennauer this year, who beat van Dijk and Chantal Blaak; this year Hayley Simmonds of Team WNT beat the Parkhotel Valkenburg duo of Nathalie van Gogh and Hanna Solovey. In the Omloop van Borsele one day race itself, Team WM3 finally broke their duck of race victories, with Riejanne Markus besting Eugenia Bujak of BTC City-Ljubljana in a two-up sprint - not the result I'd have predicted between the two of them! The duo came in just under a minute shy of the 50-strong péloton with Markus' teammate and all-round obvious legend Marianne Vos beating Boels' Jip van den Bos (here riding as a guest for a regional team) and 18-year-old Norwegian prospect Susanne Andersen.
Leading into LBL, there's a bit less to go on; it's not a historic event we can look at the past results of, like Flèche, and it's not a finish we are used to seeing in secondary races like Amstel Gold, so it's a bit more of a crapshoot. All we really have is rider strength and current form, and considering both Ardennes classics so far have ended with the exact same podium, that has to feature strongly in predictions. What we've learned so far is that van der Breggen is the strongest rider and prefers not to race a sprint up the final climb, Boels are comfortably the strongest team and are likely to put the majority of their team in the selection, Niewiadoma is just about the strongest and most combative climber but is likely to be too isolated late on, Deignan is in the best climbing form we've seen from her in a long time, and if the climbers don't make the most of it Coryn Rivera is not likely to be as far back as they would prefer.
The climbs of LBL are sometimes a bit longer than those of the other Ardennes which means Lizzie may not be as obvious a favourite, but she has won Binda before and is clearly on excellent form for these hilly races, and with Boels' strength in depth she will be afforded the chance to preserve energy for a finale, and if it does go to the finale, the Ans climb suits her best out of the late ones and could well give her the chance to round off her campaign with a win. Longo Borghini is back for Wiggle; with 8 weeks holding 8 WT races, could that break meaning she doesn't have Flèche Wallonne in her legs be beneficial today, or is she not truly over her sickness? How close is Guarnier to returning to full fitness, as Boels' dominance has meant they've been able to carry her almost as a passenger to let her ease back to shape. With the gaps between climbs, although she's suffered on the steepest stuff this week, Annemiek van Vleuten can't be counted out either, while Canyon will surely be out for revenge after a very disappointing race on Wednesday and Moolman-Pasio has a strong sprint from a group of climbers too.
Realistically, we're going in partially blind here; we know the kind of riders that are on form and that the course favours, but with this being a brand new race and the women not normally taking on these climbs, it will be intriguing to see how it unfolds.
So, the breakaway duo of Aude Biannic (FDJ) and Jeanne Korevaar (WM3) gained a good couple of minutes, but when the hammer was put down on the Côte de la Vecquée, they were brought back. A good sustained climb of that length isn't all too common in women's cycling, especially at this time of the year, and with positioning also being vital the climb has trimmed the péloton to around 40. Tiffany Cromwell is trying to solo from here.
Cromwell caught on La Redoute, and the group splits in two. van Vleuten first over the summit. About a minute between the two groups approaching La Roche-aux-Faucons, with Roxane Knetemann around 15" up on the first of the two groups. Boels, as expected, have numbers in the front group and are driving the pace to ensure the second one doesn't catch back on. Not yet clear if any major contenders have missed the split.
On Roche-aux-Faucons, it was time for the all-important moves, and... yup, it was Kasia Niewiadoma who initiated the big move that broke the field, because the road went uphill and therefore she is commanded by an insatiable desire for attacking cycling. She briefly had a gap but van der Breggen rode across to her with Elisa Longo Borghini, Lizzie Deignan and Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, and so there's now a quintet of the strongest hilly classics riders at the front. The problem is, I clearly see a repeat of the last two races in the making, as Boels have the advantage of numbers, and the best time triallist and the best sprinter in the group. A lot will hinge on whether they try the same trick again and if so, whether having the extra pair of legs in the group compared to Amstel Gold with Ash will be a factor, as Kasia has done a LOT of work over the last few days chasing and attacking and ELB missed Flèche Wallonne sick and wasn't at her best in Amstel. There's 12 riders chasing, but the elite group has improved its lead to 40".
Orica pulling hard to give Annemiek a chance to get across, while at the same time the cohesion in the front group is going down approaching St-Nicolas, mainly as Kasia, Elisa and Ash want Boels to do the work rather than wipe them out for a 1-2 like in the previous races. 20" gap at the base of St-Nic. And because ASO love women's cycling, they're showing show-jumping on the big screens at the finish.
Now on St-Nicolas, Kasia attacks again! ELB dropped, as is Lizzie but Deignan has a bit more in the tank and is able to recollect herself to rejoin the lead trio. We now know that to stand any chance, either Niewiadoma or Moolman-Pasio must distance Deignan as she has the legs. They need to go hard early in Ans, as she's not responding to the attacks with explosivity, but is able to recover and match them... which means, of course... it's the perfect time for Anna van der Breggen to go, just like she did in Valkenburg, and just like she did in Huy - as everybody's steeling themselves for the final climb, she makes use of the flat beforehand because of the advantage Boels have in numbers. It's smart riding, it's sensible riding, and it's won her two races against the same opposition this week, why wouldn't it work again? And indeed, Lizzie sits up and asks the others to go to the front (as she damn well should), and the elastic snaps, Anna has 17"...
OK, Ash and Kasia are spent, and Anna will win. Worse for them yet, the chasers split up on St-Nicolas and Shara Gillow and a couple of others have joined ELB in the chase and they've made contact with the following trio before the final ramps... and... yea, here we go again. 2nd place for Lizzie winning the sprint. And guess what? Kasia was the strongest on the climb into Ans too and takes her third 3rd place of the week!
Really, the Boels domination has been due to superb tactical acumen (you don't need to have different tactics, if you're strong enough that the same tactic is almost impossible to defend against, and each time Anna has timed it just right) and the fact that the weaker climber of the two (although for Ardennes-sized hills Lizzie is perfectly strong of course) then had the opportunity to ride the coattails of the strongest ones on opposing teams in the run-in, and the fact she's got a sprint which is easily dominant over the likes of Longo Borghini and Niewiadoma who don't have a sprint means they can't afford to not go too deep trying to distance her. Kasia almost did it today, getting a good gap on St-Nicolas, but Lizzie rode smart and strong and was able to slowly reel the front trio back in, much like she did to Kasia in Strade Bianche last year.
It's somewhat disappointing to see the same podium in all three Ardennes races, but it does clearly state who the strongest riders were. If anything Niewiadoma could be considered arguably the strongest rider of the week but the fact she's spent so much of the important parts of the race isolated from her team while Boels had a lot of numbers and that she has been the one that has initiated the decisive selections in all three races has meant that she's down on remaining energy towards the end of the race when Anna's attacked; going on the flat is not best suited to her, but because of Anna's great TT skills and the desire to not give Lizzie a free ride has meant by the time they get to the bottom of the final climb Anna's gap has been decisive. And much as I dislike her and make no secret of it, Deignan's form this week has been the best climbing form we've seen from her in years, and she does deserve some reward for that given that her northern Classics campaign was uncharacteristically quiet.
This one has, in the chase group, led to a much more climber-centric top 10 than at Amstel Gold, and the more sustained nature of the climbs has helped traditional climber types like Lichtenberg up near the front (considering she has probably the outright worst sprint in the péloton now that Mara has retired and Anna VDB has improved that side of her game).
1 Anna van der Breggen (Boels-Dolmans) NED 3'42'17
2 Lizzie Deignan (Boels-Dolmans) GBR +17"
3 Katarzyna Niewiadoma (WM3 Pro Cycling) POL +19"
4 Eleonora van Dijk (Team Sunweb) NED +31"
5 Annemiek van Vleuten (Orica-AIS) NED +st
6 Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (Cervélo-Bigla) RSA +st
7 Shara Gillow (FDJ-Futuroscope '86) AUS +st
8 Olga Zabelinskaya (BePink-Cogeas) RUS +st
9 Elisa Longo Borghini (Wiggle-High 5) ITA +34"
10 Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig (Cervélo-Bigla) DEN +41"
Seems that Coryn was a way down, and confirmed that with her 5th place today Annemiek van Vleuten assumes the lead of the WWT overall. Ludwig expands on her lead in the U23 category, which she now has a pretty commanding lead in, although there's a few flatter events coming up she's unlikely to be too strong in. Because it's done on year group rather than outright age, Niewiadoma is ineligible despite that the 2017 WWT will end before her 23rd birthday - however that's probably for the better for the competition.
Janneke Ensing was just outside the top 10 after having a mechanical in the sprint for 4th. The next group was led across the road by Megan Guarnier, her best result of the week and the first sign she's getting back to what should be her level - also in that group after a long injury layoff is Sabrina Stultiens, along with Claudia Lichtenberg and Leah Kirchmann.