Teams & Riders Thibaut Pinot discussion thread

[Kwibus]

Solid Algarve, the only guy taking time back on Bertie on the second part of Malhao (watch Aru on the vid, his finish line move was Nacer/Zakarin BTW). Tirreno: Pinot was ahead of Nibali before the cancelled mountain stage that he had scouted to death. That was, by Thibaut's own admission, his first objective of the year. He could have won the whole thing.

Crit Int was sweet revenge . And for a change, he announced that he was going for blood. Put pressure on himself and delivered.

And now a best-ever in Romandie. With an ITT win over Dumoulin. Maybe not pan flat, maybe short, but win nonetheless.

And through it all, the kid is in l'Equipe today saying that he doesn't have the talent of the big names. Humble. And he keeps working his butt off, tries to prepare smarter. After a week rest, he'll be checking the TdF stages...he's more methodical, confident. Tibopino has grown so much since his misfortunes week one of last year's TdF. He didn't give up, fought through more bad luck (i.e. the fall/Allos), won, podiumed the GDL, and it's carrying over.

What worries me is that today l'Equipe makes him a TdF podium favorite, the circus is in full motion, and Thibaut doesn't like it. Who would? For the younger guys/gals here, check on Fons De Wolf. He was Merckx's successor. Huge talent. Won the GDL then MSR. Top-5 in the famous LBL '80. Better than Nibali. What happened?

I really hope that the pressure doesn't get to Thibaut. It did in '13. Irresponsible journos and dumb French "fans". Because the French are dumb: trust me, I'm one of them .

Same problem in NL. Dumoulin should've gone to the tdf to win it, but now that he's racing the Giro he will certainly get pink in the first TT, just like they said before the TdF last year.
Dumoulin has to keep on repeating that it's more likely that Cancellara will win as the course in Apeldoorn suits Cance a lot more. It doesn't help though because any newspaper will say Dumo is favourite for pink.

Frustating for a fan like me, but I can't imagine how frustating it must be for Major Tom.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

To me Pinot has now reached 2007-2013 Cadel Evans level, ie he is very very good, he is there, he is never quite the favorite to win it and if all goes well for the few big bosses around, he probably does podium or top5/8.. BUT he is now there to pick a big success up if a Quintana, a Froome or other bigger gun isn't up to par on that important day.

That's how I see it, my bet is that Pinot will start declining in his earlyish 30s after having scored 4/6 GT podiums and a GT win or two.

Lol, no.

Elaborate please...Give your two cents...

Isn't it obvious?

He asks you to elaborate so it's clearly not obvious.....

 

[veji11]

Re: Re:

Lol, no.

Elaborate please...Give your two cents...

Isn't it obvious?

He asks you to elaborate so it's clearly not obvious.....

Even more than that it's just plain rude... I mean you could argue in many ways, I obviously didn't mean it in terms of precise wattage, but rather in terms of "being very very good, but never quite supposed to be the best and waiting for a slip up to win be able to win it".

In The 2008 Tour, Contador was boycotted by ASO, many guys had just gotten caught and the Puerto affair was having a big impact, Andy Schleck still too tender, and he almost won the Tour, in 2011 Contador was tired, Schleck did his best schleckist ineptitude and Wiggo fell, and he pulled it through and won it fair and square on the Galibier and that ITT.

My point is that Pinot has now reached a level where he will be in a similar situation for the next few years. You might disagree and think I am wrong, so please develop your point instead jackassing.

 

[lenric]

You need to chill mate, you're too nervous.
It's quite obvious. And to resume it in 2 sentences, Pinot isn't considered GT winner material by anyone. Cadel was considered even prior to 2007 because he showed it.

I'm not saying that Pinot can't achieve a higher level, but until today he didn't show anything that can indicate he has already reached Cadel's level in the period you mentioned.
Oh and don't mention Andy Schleck and Pinot in the same comment. At the same age (25), Schleck got 3 GTs second places, two of them against the likes of Contador and a clearly better field than 2014's Pinot podium. Plus, Andy was considered one of the best young cyclists in ages.

 

[memyselfandI]

Re:

Pinot is getting better, but not even close with Evans on overall performance nor career stats (if results scaled against racing years). In that comparison Pinot has quite a bit of stairs to climb.

Evans very good flat TT, also quite good hilly TT, superb on various fast technical downhills (and with anyone on pro peloton). Fearless agressive attitude on final k's on small groups bigger groups. Pinot is bit better on climbing accelerations but not much.

 

[veji11]

Re:

You need to chill mate, you're too nervous.
It's quite obvious. And to resume it in 2 sentences, Pinot isn't considered GT winner material by anyone. Cadel was considered even prior to 2007 because he showed it.

I'm not saying that Pinot can't achieve a higher level, but until today he didn't show anything that can indicate he has already reached Cadel's level in the period you mentioned.
Oh and don't mention Andy Schleck and Pinot in the same comment. At the same age (25), Schleck got 3 GTs second places, two of them against the likes of Contador and a clearly better field than 2014's Pinot podium. Plus, Andy was considered one of the best young cyclists in ages.

Right.

Before 2007 Evans was considered a potential GT winner more than Pinot ? Do you have anyhting backing that up say in 2002 Evans was more touted than say Pinot after the 2012 Tour ? Or that Evans in 2005 is more touted than Pinot after the 2014 Tour ?

And btw the rest of your text is about Andy Schleck, which to my knowledge :
1/ isn't Cadel Evans nor Thibaut Pinot (correct me if I am wrong).
2/ And was indeed touted as a future GT winner as soon as he scored his podium on the 2007 Giro age 22, which, incidentaly, has nothing to do with the whole shebang since, correct me again if I am wrong, point 1 seems to still apply.

I won't ask you to chill, i'll just ask you to try and argue your point coherently if you may.

 

[Fernandez]

Right now the guy is on the second step of the GC riders, behind Froome, Contador, Quintana and NIbali. He is on the step of for example Landa, Valverde or Uran.

 

[veji11]

Re: Re:

Pinot is getting better, but not even close with Evans on overall performance nor career stats (if results scaled against racing years). In that comparison Pinot has quite a bit of stairs to climb.

Evans very good flat TT, also quite good hilly TT, superb on various fast technical downhills (and with anyone on pro peloton). Fearless agressive attitude on final k's on small groups bigger groups. Pinot is bit better on climbing accelerations but not much.

I am not saying Pinot is close to Evans' career performance at this stage. What I mean is that the way I see it Pinot has now entered that stage in his career where he is a very very good overall GT rider BUT still a wee bit short compared to the top guns of his time (Froome and Quintana ; Nibali and Contador for the time being and maybe in the future others ) to win it all if those guys don't slip up.

I used the Evans parallel because it seemed to me that it could illustrate my point pretty well : from 2007 to 2013 Evans was always competitive, but whenever the top guns of his generations were there at their best he couldn't beat them. The year he eventually won it all was the year they slept up a little bit and he was there to seize his chance with gusto and hammer the goal through (2011).

Now am I guaranteing that Pinot will do the same ? No of course not, but I think there are strong chances he could have a similar career : very competitive for a longish window (8-6 years or so say up to 2022-24 when he will be 32-34), will garner many top 10 and I would wager a solid handful of podiums. The big IF being, will he be able to score that goal, and win that GT or 2 ? That was the point of my comparison, that's all.

 

[lenric]

Valverde and Uran really? Right now Pinot only god one podium. People are way overrating him.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

You need to chill mate, you're too nervous.
It's quite obvious. And to resume it in 2 sentences, Pinot isn't considered GT winner material by anyone. Cadel was considered even prior to 2007 because he showed it.

I'm not saying that Pinot can't achieve a higher level, but until today he didn't show anything that can indicate he has already reached Cadel's level in the period you mentioned.
Oh and don't mention Andy Schleck and Pinot in the same comment. At the same age (25), Schleck got 3 GTs second places, two of them against the likes of Contador and a clearly better field than 2014's Pinot podium. Plus, Andy was considered one of the best young cyclists in ages.

Right.

Before 2007 Evans was considered a potential GT winner more than Pinot ? Do you have anyhting backing that up say in 2002 Evans was more touted than say Pinot after the 2012 Tour ? Or that Evans in 2005 is more touted than Pinot after the 2014 Tour ?

And btw the rest of your text is about Andy Schleck, which to my knowledge :
1/ isn't Cadel Evans nor Thibaut Pinot (correct me if I am wrong).
2/ And was indeed touted as a future GT winner as soon as he scored his podium on the 2007 Giro age 22, which, incidentaly, has nothing to do with the whole shebang since, correct me again if I am wrong, point 1 seems to still apply.

I won't ask you to chill, i'll just ask you to try and argue your point coherently if you may.

Now you seem to be chilled, instead of using fancy words like jackassing and whatever. Good for you.

Oh, ok, now you're just trying to compare their career year by year, right? Because well, that's always a good method of comparison, especially because cycling in 2002 was more or less the same as it was in 2012, along with several other factors.
I don't want to spend too much time discussing about this, since it's hot in Portugal and I've got better things to do, but a quick search on odds (poor argument, but I wanted to match your year by year argument quality) gave me this two links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Tour_de_France (pre-race favorites)

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2118270-tour-de-france-2014-top-riders-odds-and-final-race-preview


About your second point, you mentioned Andy Schleck's name on your comment. I answered to that part. Any more doubts about it, or are we going to keep discussing this subject without any of us going to agree with the other, just trying to show manliness and who's the better guy at displaying high value arguments?

 

[veji11]

See you can post longer things than "Lol no" when you want ! Well done.

Let's agree to disagree. I have made a point, ie that Pinot is now entering a stage in his career where he is very good, competitive, and should do quite a few podiums and maybe win a GT or two while in his prime, à la what Evans did in 2007-2013, you disagree. Fair enough.

I am glad you got to make your points, and am sorry I had to use fancy words like "jackasssing" to extract something more than "lol no" out of you.

It's sunny in Paris too, so let's all enjoy the sun.

 

[Netserk]

Pinot is behind the big four, but on the same level as the others just behind, like Aru and Landa.

Evans would be in the same category if he in '07 (and partly also in '08) had to compete against Ullrich, Basso, Vino, Landis, Contador (in '08). Unlike that period, the great GT riders of the last few years are all active and going strong. The level is simply higher now.

 

[lenric]

Re:

Pinot is behind the big four, but on the same level as the others just behind, like Aru and Landa.

Evans would be in the same category if he in '07 (and partly also in '08) had to compete against Ullrich, Basso, Vino, Landis, Contador (in '08). Unlike that period, the great GT riders of the last few years are all active and going strong. The level is simply higher now.

All of them doped, so it's not quite the same.
I agree that the level today is higher (thank god), however, if we can argue whether actual Pinot and 06/07 Evans are, or are not in the same level, it's more doubtful to put Pinot and Aru in the same level.
The point here isn't their physical capacity, but the probability of getting a good result. And in that basis, 99% of cycling fans would put their money on Aru over Pinot.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

All of them doped, so it's not quite the same.

That is for another forum, but let's just agree to disagree.

I agree that the level today is higher (thank god), however, if we can argue whether actual Pinot and 06/07 Evans are, or are not in the same level, it's more doubtful to put Pinot and Aru in the same level.
The point here isn't their physical capacity, but the probability of getting a good result. And in that basis, 99% of cycling fans would put their money on Aru over Pinot.

No. Quite literally so. I think SeriousSam will gladly inform you how to interpret odds. It would surprise me if there weren't (or won't be) any head-to-head bets between Aru and Pinot for the Tour GC, and I think it will be quite even between the two.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Pinot is behind the big four, but on the same level as the others just behind, like Aru and Landa.

Evans would be in the same category if he in '07 (and partly also in '08) had to compete against Ullrich, Basso, Vino, Landis, Contador (in '08). Unlike that period, the great GT riders of the last few years are all active and going strong. The level is simply higher now.

Agree with you Netserk.

Let's reinforce that the Professional Road Racing thread is a doping-free zone.

For the Aru-Pinot discussion, on PCS, the head-to-head stats are clearly in Pinot's favor. In '16, same thing so far. So far, Pinot beat Aru roughly 2/3 of the times: fact. I think that the TdF will be a good opportunity to compare, and I would bet 100 escudos on Pinot. BTW, with Cance retiring, maybe Netserk will replace him with Aru on his legendary signature, good but way overrated.

IMO, right now, it's:

Tier 1: Dawg, Bertie, Nairito.
Tier 2: Nibali, Tibopino, Aru, Landa, Don Alejandro
Tier 3: Dumoulin, Bardet, TJVG, Porte...

To re-ash the obvious, if Thibaut wasn't "obliged" to race the TdF but could do Giro-Vuelta for the next five years, yes that would be many top-5s, podiums, a couple of wins. IF .

 

[Tonton]

FYI, the focus on ITT is nothing new, plus miscellaneous stuff that is cool to watch. (in French)

https://youtu.be/MbsHZw2Twn4

 

[lenric]

It's meaningless what they have done head-to-head in minor competitions. Different build-ups can explain that, even when the goal of the year is the same (such as this year).
What matters about GT riders are obviously GTs. Aru won one and has 2 podiums. Pinot has one podium. Until now, Aru had way more success than Pinot.

It's romantic to love underdogs, I like some of them also. But whenever we face the facts about their successes, it's quite simple who wins.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

It's meaningless what they have done head-to-head in minor competitions. Different build-ups can explain that, even when the goal of the year is the same (such as this year).
What matters about GT riders are obviously GTs. Aru won one and has 2 podiums. Pinot has one podium. Until now, Aru had way more success than Pinot.

It's romantic to love underdogs, I like some of them also. But whenever we face the facts about their successes, it's quite simple who wins.

We shall see in July my friend . I think that you have to know more about Tibopino before being so sure. Nothing wrong with it: people paid to talk about cycling often call him Reichenbach . Even the picky, like Netserk (a.k.a. Netjerk ) are giving him props. And other members who follow cycling closer than we do.

You can't dismiss head-to-head comparisons and just make your point about races when only one was there, keep an open mind. I'll PM you when Pinot beats Aru at the TdF: with my address, so I enjoy a good bottle of Porto. The Dow's, Quinta da Noval are all great, but there are small unknown to the mass media producers who make gems (not pricey) as well. You know them. If I lose, I'll send you a classic Yellow Wine from the Jura. Wanna play?

BTW, I don't know if betting is allowed on CN. If it is, yeah, my wine is on Thibaut...Pinot. Cheers.

 

[lenric]

That's ok Tonton, sounds like a good bet. But I'm a simple guy, I'm extremely happy with a bottle of Favaios. Best 5€ you can spend.

 

[King Boonen]

I await the day when Pinot Vs. Barguil has the same connotations as Fignon Vs. Hinault or Anquetil Vs. Poulidor. It's coming, mark my words.

 

[CTQ]

I hope Pinot has learned to manage his composure. I still remember stage 4 of TDF2015.

 

[yetanothergreenworld]

Re:

I hope Pinot has learned to manage his composure. I still remember stage 4 of TDF2015.

Way too much was made of that stage, in my opinion. It's not like this is a recurring feature of how he races.

 

[veji11]

Re:

I hope Pinot has learned to manage his composure. I still remember stage 4 of TDF2015.

He completely cracked on that stage but really the cardinal fault lies with his teammates : Not one of those flat/cobbles specialist was with him to shepherd him through : Démare and Ladagnous should have been publicly shamed by the staff for treason on that day !

 

[Tonton]

Re:

I hope Pinot has learned to manage his composure. I still remember stage 4 of TDF2015.

We may look back at the '15 TdF as the turning point in his career. The pressure was HUGE. The French media did what it had done before the '13 Tour (and we know what happened): talk about Pinot winning the whole thing. The circus with Holz as Bozo and Jaja The Clown...

Last year, Thibaut did a great opening ITT, then the nightmare began. Bonnet's crash in front of him, the battery of his electronic shifting dying and the meltdown: he lost the hope of a podium finish before the mountains even began. Posters here and on many other forums wanted him to take the easy way out and do like in '13: DNF and race the Vuelta. Doing so would have meant that Pinot had in many ways wasted two years: "back to square one".

Tibopino decided to toughen up and keep going. He took more punches, had more heartbreaks: Mende, the fall down the Col d'Allos: he would have won that day. Social media was merciless. Many French, so-called fans buried him. When all hope was pretty much lost, he took off in the descent of the Croix-de-Fer, and triumphed atop l'AdH. Hats off...Thibaut Pinot grew a lot in July '15. He got a lot tougher...

Next was a big win in a small race, the TdG, and a great fall campaign in Italy. Now, his best start of a season ever. Solid at VaA, ahead of Nibbles at TA, his best VaPV ever, 2nd in Romandie. Still a little below what is now the Big-3. I believe in him for a top-5 at the Tour. Possibly better (podium?) if he takes risks. Are the favorites going to watch each other? What team will do the work if Thinard Pinault places an attack? Then he has to make moves early before teams/riders collude to defend their 2nd, 3rd, 5th, or 6th place as it unfortunately happens every year.

 

[Simurgh]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/pinot-surprised-by-difficulty-of-tour-de-frances-swiss-summit/

He is gonna be monstrous at that mountain-TT! I think that he, with his very much improved time trialing, can pull of a top-3 placing. Who of the big 4 he will defeat, I really can't say. June will give us some answers.