Tirreno-Adriatico 2012 (07.03.-13.03.)

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Like when he almost did pass a totally wrecked AC in the Giro Queen stage`?

Fatigue won't be a huge factor in T-A relative to the Giro. Also, you're not seriously comparing the queen stages of the 2011 Giro and the 2012 Tirreno-Adriatico, are you?

 

[Walkman]

Hyping Scarponi is ridiculous, hes in the race for second as i said but on a 14km mtf there is absolutely no way he can perform near Contadors level and never has beaten Contador on a proper mtf or stage

You should watch some of this Italian cycling in may....Giro I believe it's called:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fc9Aj6u-QDE&feature=related

http://www.cyclingfans.net/images/2011_giro_ditalia_stage15_profile.jpg

 

[The Hitch]

Because everyone who dislikes AC must be an Evans fan?

No, because the person at whom youngest directed the comment at is a huge Evans fan.

We know woodie well and he is the biggest ozzie fan on the forum with the possible exception of sportzchick. ACF with his support of Belgians and italians and Norwegians on BMC doesn't come close.

 

[Walkman]

Fatigue won't be a huge factor in T-A relative to the Giro. Also, you're not seriously comparing the queen stages of the 2011 Giro and the 2012 Tirreno-Adriatico, are you?

I kind of did, since it show how good Scarponi can be when on form. He is no favorite rider of mine, but I still think he should be given some credit for his climbing.

And since fatigue won't be a factor, as you say, shouldn't that be more af an advantages for Scarponi?

 

[Walkman]

Well its nice to see a Cadel fan aknowledge that Scarponi does have some talent, I suppose

The argument so far has been that Scarponi is a poor man's Damiano Cunego and that him coming 2nd shows that the Giro had the worst lineup in GT history, and not one of the participants would have come top 20 in the Tour de France etc etc.

Its an interesting logic, that coming 10 s behind someone on 1 stage, while losing 2 minutes two days earlier and a minute the day before, makes you equal to them but I guess we are on the same page regarding our belief in Michelles abilities

I am not arguing that Scarponi is equal to AC, just making a point since he said that Scarponi will be "no match for Contador" implying that Scarponi is totally garbage compared to AC wich I think is BS.

 

[maltiv]

Like when he almost did pass a totally wrecked AC in the Giro Queen stage`?

You know you're talking about Contador when your only argument that X rider can beat him is an example from that one time he almost passed Contador

 

[Walkman]

No, because the person at whom youngest directed the comment at is a huge Evans fan.

We know woodie well and he is the biggest ozzie fan on the forum with the possible exception of sportzchick. ACF with his support of Belgians and italians and Norwegians on BMC doesn't come close.

Point taken. Haven't been reading the forum as much as I use to do as of latley hence I am not aware of wich poster favours wich riders.

Btw, am I the only one who think that a 14 km MTF will make for less exiting racing than last year? Last year was really thrilling bacause of the hills who generated close and exiting racing. With a 14 km MTF I fear some of that exitement will be lost because of major time gaps.

 

[Walkman]

You know you're talking about Contador when your only argument that X rider can beat him is an example from that one time he almost passed Contador

Well, the point was not to claim that Scarponi could beat AC, it was mearly meant to respond to he because he said that Scarponi would be "no match" for AC. 5 seconds on a much more heavy course seems more than "a match" to me especially since Scarponi was closing in on AC.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Until two years ago, it was.

This.

I think Giro fever is starting to invade T-A territory.

Take out the Queen stage and you have a turkey.

I'd rather see a Garzelli-esque final stage scrap for the bonus seconds than week long races book-ended by time trials.

Same reason P-N fails again, this year.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

And since fatigue won't be a factor, as you say, shouldn't that be more af an advantages for Scarponi?

It's a factor, of course, but less so. I said as much in my previous post.

Why would it be an advantage for Scarponi, though? He'll probably be my top favorite for this race if Contador is banned, though.

 

[The Hitch]

Point taken. Haven't been reading the forum as much as I use to do as of latley hence I am not aware of wich poster favours wich riders.

Btw, am I the only one who think that a 14 km MTF will make for less exiting racing than last year? Last year was really thrilling bacause of the hills who generated close and exiting racing. With a 14 km MTF I fear some of that exitement will be lost because of major time gaps.

I was thinking the same, that the hill before that maybe neutralised as a result.

However, is that not the one Scarponi has won last 2 years?

If so he might want to really push it to get another stage there.

Also the hills are quite steep and not far out, so people wont really be risking too much by attacking on them. And if your Contadors and Scarponis don't go all out on them then you will have attacks from Madrazo like characters.

 

[Walkman]

It's a factor, of course, but less so. I said as much in my previous post.

Why would it be an advantage for Scarponi, though? He'll probably be my top favorite for this race if Contador is banned, though.

Because I think that AC's main strength is his recuperation. Hence Scarponi should have a better chance in a short race with only one big climb rather than a really cruel GT with tons of climbing. Would you agree?

 

[BillytheKid]

This.

I think Giro fever is starting to invade T-A territory.

Take out the Queen stage and you have a turkey.

I'd rather see a Garzelli-esque final stage scrap for the bonus seconds than week long races book-ended by time trials.

Same reason P-N fails again, this year.

Nah, TTT, ITT, a good chance at a break on the impressive stage 4, 252 Ks!
This is always a good race. Lots of fans. Paris-Nice has become second rate.

 

[Duartista]

Because I think that AC's main strength is his recuperation. Hence Scarponi should have a better chance in a short race with only one big climb rather than a really cruel GT with tons of climbing. Would you agree?

The stage where Scarponi was closest to Contador, as you've pointed out, was the longest and toughest. Then you have his ride in MSR last year, both of which suggest his stamina is one of his greatest strengths. Whereas you could argue that Contador's advantage over his rivals is less on long, hard stages than shorter stages with an MTF. Actually, I think Contador has said on a few occasions that he is not keen on really long (200km plus) stages.

 

[roundabout]

two time trials in a 7 stage race is too much. And individual ITT is too short for such a route. Chieti stage is a tad excessive in length and ideally for a route like this one a stage to Prati di Tivo should have only 1 big climb.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Nah, TTT, ITT, a good chance at a break on the impressive stage 4, 252 Ks!
This is always a good race. Lots of fans. Paris-Nice has become second rate.

It isn't always a good race. Several awful editions during the early/mid noughties.
Plus, those who have witnessed those editions can bear witness to the fact that mountain passes and indeed, one MTF were cancelled due to snow in the Apennines.
For instance, a few choice words from Kloden and Kohl about 2006:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/editions/first-edition-cycling-news-for-march-12-2006
Ended up with the MTF being replaced by a rolling circuit race.

As for 2003.........
http://velonews.competitor.com/2003...zzato-takes-overall-at-tirreno-adriatico_3629

 

[auscyclefan94]

It is good but not great imo. If Contador rides then he is the favourite as Evans generally doesn't climb overly well in the early season. BMC would want to do a good TTT which is certainly possible.

 

[theyoungest]

It is good but not great imo. If Contador rides then he is the favourite as Evans generally doesn't climb overly well in the early season. BMC would want to do a good TTT which is certainly possible.

And if Tirreno were held in the summer Evans could suddenly keep up with Contador?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Because I think that AC's main strength is his recuperation. Hence Scarponi should have a better chance in a short race with only one big climb rather than a really cruel GT with tons of climbing. Would you agree?

I agree with Duartista. Contador's day to day recuperation is one of his strengths as the GT specialist of his generation, obviously, but he doesn't benefit from long and really hard mountain stages.

As for Scarponi, I don't really know. His Vuelta was a let-down, but other than that he showed remarkable recuperation abilities in the last two seasons. His season up to and including the Giro was grueling, though, last year. The extreme heat at the Vuelta obviously didn't do him any favors, either. But like I said, I don't know if we can assume that he'll be as consistent this year.

 

[El Pistolero]

The stage where Scarponi was closest to Contador, as you've pointed out, was the longest and toughest. Then you have his ride in MSR last year, both of which suggest his stamina is one of his greatest strengths. Whereas you could argue that Contador's advantage over his rivals is less on long, hard stages than shorter stages with an MTF. Actually, I think Contador has said on a few occasions that he is not keen on really long (200km plus) stages.

Contador kept closing gaps on that long brutal stage in the Giro and even chased Nibali down on the descend. It's really no surprise Scarponi was close to him that day as Alberto had already spent a lot more energy. You're talking about a comparative advantage by the way because Contador still has the upper hand on Scarponi on long stages.

 

[Woody22]

this was one of my favourite races of last year, and not just because Evans won it. Looks like this years race will be great as well.

Not a huge fan of TTT's but enjoy them more now than I did in 2009.

Can't see Evans winning it this year, Contador big favourite given the extended climb.

Ohh, and Hitch and some others.... I'm 36.

 

[Duartista]

Contador kept closing gaps on that long brutal stage in the Giro and even chased Nibali down on the descend. It's really no surprise Scarponi was close to him that day as Alberto had already spent a lot more energy. You're talking about a comparative advantage by the way because Contador still has the upper hand on Scarponi on long stages.

Yes, I realise it is only an 'advantage' to Scarponi relatively speaking. I wouldn't agree that Contador had used significantly more energy during the race though - Scarponi was right on the limit on the Zoncolan, whereas Contador probably wasn't, and had cracked on Etna and Grossglockner. Plus, on the Gardecia stage Contador was towed back to Nibali by Lastras IIRC.

 

[Fetisoff]

Can't see Evans winning it this year, Contador big favourite given the extended climb.

Given he'll have all the clinic-related issues put behind him, of course.

Some riders peaking for the Giro might be in slightly better form regardless, so i wouldn't call him a big favorite just yet

 

[Ferminal]

This.

I think Giro fever is starting to invade T-A territory.

Take out the Queen stage and you have a turkey.

I'd rather see a Garzelli-esque final stage scrap for the bonus seconds than week long races book-ended by time trials.

Same reason P-N fails again, this year.

What one would that be? The Chieti and Offida stages are arguably better than the MTF. I'd say Chieti is the Queen stage.

 

[El Pistolero]

By the way, any stage where Phil can potentially win? Hard to look at those tiny profiles. Looks like a very hard edition though.

edit: a TTT, two stages for the sprinters, 2 stages for climber types(if last year is anything to go by Chieti is too hard for Phil, at least this early in the season), Prato di Tivo is definitely too hard for him, so that only leaves the Offida stage. Looks possible. He'll have a good TTT with BMC and can place in the top 10 of the prologue. Prato di Tivo stage will do him in though. Contador, Scarponi or Evans for the win.