Tirreno-Adriatico 2019, March 13-19

[Bushman]

Re:

Serious effort from Yates here. Roglic cracked big time there.

“Cracked big time”? He was dropped on the steep part around 1,5 k from the finish by a clearly stronger rider but only lost 16 seconds in the end. I would say he managed his effort brilliantly.

 

[Robert5091]

A good day for Astana! Vino will be pleased

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re: Re:

Serious effort from Yates here. Roglic cracked big time there.

“Cracked big time”? He was dropped on the steep part around 1,5 k from the finish by a clearly stronger rider but only lost 16 seconds in the end. I would say he managed his effort brilliantly.

He did manage his effort well in the end and probably clawed some time back on the flatter finish, but you could clearly see he went into the red trying to follow Yates and was peddling squares on that steepest part.

Very enjoyable stage and a great performance by Fuglsang to keep that gap so big.

 

[sir fly]

Another thrilling stage.
Congrats to guys. They're making a real show.
The race is looking more uncertain now.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

What a nice race. Exploded with 24km to go

Yes, it's very difficult to complain about it this year (TTT notwithstanding).

and yet so many of the same culprits complained at the beginning of the race

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

What a nice race. Exploded with 24km to go

Yes, it's very difficult to complain about it this year (TTT notwithstanding).

and yet so many of the same culprits complained at the beginning of the race

No, you once again stating that same *** on purpose despite it not being the case. Most folks liked the race had gone back and included 2 hard, hilly days instead of the MTF - the complaint was always, and only, the TTT. Which you can dislike, and I dislike in this race setting, but still can argue opened the race up a bit considered these last two stages.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Race of physical prowess by Astana boys.

 

[Tonton]

Great racing, hats off to Birdsong: he deserved it. And like Dumoulin put it, Adam pulled a Simon.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Great racing, hats off to Birdsong: he deserved it. And like Dumoulin put it, Adam pulled a Simon.

Indeed he did, not many riders can do that to Rogla.

Just watched the last few kms preferring Paris-Nice over T-A, but I gotta watch these last few stages of Tirreno tonight. What great racing by the looks of it, massive timegaps and exactly how T-A stages should be!

 

[Lequack]

I guess Yates must now be the favorite, no way he's going to lose 25 sec on a 10k TT, even if Roglic was on super form that day. I think realistically he might lose 10-15 sec.

 

[yaco]

It was impressive by A.Yates to ride Roglic off his wheel - GC should be touch and go.

 

[jaylew]

Who'd have thought Astana would have more wins than QS at this point? They are on fire.

 

[JosephK]

Re:

I guess Yates must now be the favorite, no way he's going to lose 25 sec on a 10k TT, even if Roglic was on super form that day. I think realistically he might lose 10-15 sec.

I think that's it. Yates is the out-and-out favorite, now. I was a little worried that Carlton Kirby was going to have an aneurysm when Yates made his final attack to drop Roglic. Glad he survived.

 

[topt]

Re:

I guess Yates must now be the favorite, no way he's going to lose 25 sec on a 10k TT, even if Roglic was on super form that day. I think realistically he might lose 10-15 sec.

he has lost a lot more that 25 sec on similar TTs, so this is not over

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

I guess Yates must now be the favorite, no way he's going to lose 25 sec on a 10k TT, even if Roglic was on super form that day. I think realistically he might lose 10-15 sec.

he has lost a lot more that 25 sec on similar TTs, so this is not over

Context matters.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I guess Yates must now be the favorite, no way he's going to lose 25 sec on a 10k TT, even if Roglic was on super form that day. I think realistically he might lose 10-15 sec.

he has lost a lot more that 25 sec on similar TTs, so this is not over

Context matters.

I have been looking at all Yates' TT results the past couple of years. Nothing suggests he will lose less than 25 seconds to Roglic. Even his opening TT in Valencia this year was bad. Last time he lost 36 seconds to Roglic and it was only Yates who was in the fight for GC on that occasion.

The only thing that talks in Yates' favour is the fact that Simon pulled a rabbit out of the hat in Paris-Nice, and if Adam has been training with him over the winter, he might just hold the Slovenian behind him.

 

[WheelofGear]

Roglic is faster than Yates in a flat sprint. I'd try to take some bonus seconds on Yates before the time trial. There are two immediate sprints tomorrow at the end of the stage.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

I guess Yates must now be the favorite, no way he's going to lose 25 sec on a 10k TT, even if Roglic was on super form that day. I think realistically he might lose 10-15 sec.

he has lost a lot more that 25 sec on similar TTs, so this is not over

Context matters.

I have been looking at all Yates' TT results the past couple of years. Nothing suggests he will lose less than 25 seconds to Roglic. Even his opening TT in Valencia this year was bad. Last time he lost 36 seconds to Roglic and it was only Yates who was in the fight for GC on that occasion.

The only thing that talks in Yates' favour is the fact that Simon pulled a rabbit out of the hat in Paris-Nice, and if Adam has been training with him over the winter, he might just hold the Slovenian behind him.

It’s more than just training. Mitchelton appears to have improved their TT bike a lot. I just can’t see him lose 25 seconds in 10k.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

Who'd have thought Astana would have more wins than QS at this point? They are on fire.

They apparently changed their philosophy, at the start of last season.

DS Lars Michaelsen spoke to that, when he was co-commentating on danish TV yesterday.

He said that prior to 2018, the team had been organised very "old school italian", with the whole team being built around a single captain, latest Aru, before that Nibali, who was almost the sole purpose of the team.

But after Aru left, they decided to change the strategy, to becoming more of a coherent "team" (i.e. like the belgian and dutch teams)..... and made a conscious effort to choose captains (Fuglsang and Lopez), who bought into that philosophy, and were themselves prepared to sacrifice for their teammates, when the race dictated it.

As a result, we already last year saw a whole host of different Astana riders winning races, and this year the effect has maximized.

 

[Strawberry_Jams]

From someone who has followed the Yates' closely since they started...Roglic is the clear favourite to win.

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

Who'd have thought Astana would have more wins than QS at this point? They are on fire.

They apparently changed their philosophy, at the start of last season.

DS Lars Michaelsen spoke to that, when he was co-commentating on danish TV yesterday.

He said that prior to 2018, the team had been organised very "old school italian", with the whole team being built around a single captain, latest Aru, before that Nibali, who was almost the sole purpose of the team.

But after Aru left, they decided to change the strategy, to becoming more of a coherent "team" (i.e. like the belgian and dutch teams)..... and made a conscious effort to choose captains (Fuglsang and Lopez), who bought into that philosophy, and were themselves prepared to sacrifice for their teammates, when the race dictated it.

As a result, we already last year saw a whole host of different Astana riders winning races, and this year the effect has maximized.

It also helps that they take a lot of GCs while QS takes only stages and one day races most of the time. Of the over 70 wins that Quickstep had in 2018, only 3 were GC victories. Alaphilippe at the Tour of Briatain, Tour of Slovakia and Viviani the Dubai Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

25s is about the gap that can make it go either way imo.

The Valencia TT was the first race day of the season, now were at the end of a hard week and both Yates and Roglic are in some very good form.

Generally I dont think the Tirreno ITT has produced very big gaps in the last few years

 

[fuiers]

Some incredible racing in the past week. Love these week long stage races. Adam Yates really turned up when it mattered. Gonna be an interesting TT.

 

[search]

Re:

25s is about the gap that can make it go either way imo.

The Valencia TT was the first race day of the season, now were at the end of a hard week and both Yates and Roglic are in some very good form.

Generally I dont think the Tirreno ITT has produced very big gaps in the last few years

I just checked, over the eight years, on average the first ~13 guys finished within 25 seconds. And personally I would think Roglic winning this looks more likely than Yates finishing in the top 15.

Last year the rain may have influenced the result a bit, but that was basically the same for both and Yates lost 36 seconds. Keeping it within 25 now look slike a tough ask for me, on basically the worst type of time trial course for him.

edit: just checked again, I forgot that Roglic was out of the GC picture already and started early. When he was on course it was still dry, but he was affected by a crash the days before. So hard to take that as a reference for either of them.

 

[Salvarani]

Context matters. Has Adam ever had the lead and riding this impressive before an ITT like this? He might perform better than usual.

I dont think Roglic will just beat him that easily as some of yall think. It is gonna be pretty close I think. Could go either way.