Tirreno - Adriatico 2022 (7.03-13.03)

[Big Doopie]

Unless we go back to proper length TTs. Give Remco a 1990s-2000s TDF course, he has a chance.

A Pogacar vs Evenepoel battle in a proper TDF with 2 >50km TTs and a few BIG mountain days would be a joy to watch. Not today's short, steep climbs and very short ITTs

Agreed.

So many things have changed:

1. Shorter stages
2. Less ITT
3. Smaller gearing (has anyone watched Merckx and others climbing Tre Cime in 1974?)
4. Leading to the constant search for steeper climbs
5. Leading to a hyper focus on watts/kg
6. Leading to unhealthily skinny pros with eating disorders

All of the above favor naturally light weight pure climbers whose resistance and zip in the mountains were often reduced, if not destroyed, by the efforts they needed to put out in the long flat stages and especially in the longer ITTs.

Riders like Wiggins, Thomas and Dumoulin had to lose unnatural weight to be able to fight for GC. Pure climbers have had to do nothing. In fact, many of them can even ignore having to train their TTing at all (to win the giro this year for instance).

Having said that, Pog (and Rog) would be dominant in any era. But his/their competitors might be different.

 

[SafeBet]

The biggest problem for Evenepoel is the penultimate stage. All other stages could enable him to gain some time on Pogačar. But obviously Pogačar has other plans. Still good tactics can play a role. And lets see if they manage to gain in between 30s to one minute on the other stages.

I don't see Remco gaining time on Pog in the hilly stages. Pogacar is a monster on the hills, he won Liege, he won Strade Bianche with a 50 km solo. How is Remco gonna drop him? Even if Remco goes 100% for it I see them getting to the finish line together and Pog outsprinting Remco easily.
Perhaps if Pog has a bad day, but it's unlikely.

 

[AlfaLum]

I don't see Remco gaining time on Pog in the hilly stages. Pogacar is a monster on the hills, he won Liege, he won Strade Bianche with a 50 km solo. How is Remco gonna drop him? Even if Remco goes 100% for it I see them getting to the finish line together and Pog outsprinting Remco easily.
Perhaps if Pog has a bad day, but it's unlikely.

You are wrong. Evenepoel is the cycling god from Belgium and Pogacar is very much afraid of him. This is due to the amazing track record Evenepoel has in one week mountainous WT stage race. He clearly has the advantage over Pogacar here.

You can see it from the fact that Pogacar, who normally never races and is a very defensive rider is now going for bonis.

 

[Lequack]

Another one for the sprinters today

 

[Skalman]

Very dubious, i think more people than the sprinters will want to be part of the fun today.

 

[Lequack]

I think a strong break will form and the peloton will have a rest day sicne the sprint teams will capitulate. i'm guessing the peloton will arrive 15 minutes after the break.

 

[Faserr]

I really don't think so. You can't give a break 15 minutes for the GC. Teams like UAE will try to let only few riders in the break. I think Pogacar will win this.

 

[Skalman]

Rest day? they have rested for two days now, time to work a little
Nah, the punchier guys will wanna make this hard.

 

[SafeBet]

I think a strong break will form and the peloton will have a rest day sicne the sprint teams will capitulate. i'm guessing the peloton will arrive 15 minutes after the break.

Could be, but the profile looks good for Alaphilippe and QS has yet to win a stage here.
BikeExchange and Ag2r could be interested too.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

It's only 15 riders in the race that are more than 3 minutes down in GC, so I can't see why a break should go in with a big gap.
The final climb should be really good for Alaphilippe, Pogacar, Carapaz, Matthews and Cosnefroy, so I expect several teams being interested in controlling this.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think a strong break will form and the peloton will have a rest day sicne the sprint teams will capitulate. i'm guessing the peloton will arrive 15 minutes after the break.

Pogi won't resist temptation and will go on the first Bellante climb to gain a modest 3-minute advantage over the rest of GC guys.

 

[hayneplane]

It's only 15 riders in the race that are more than 3 minutes down in GC, so I can't see why a break should go in with a big gap.
The final climb should be really good for Alaphilippe, Pogacar, Carapaz, Matthews and Cosnefroy, so I expect several teams being interested in controlling this.

Too hard for Matthews in this company if Pogacar chooses to go for it.

 

[hayneplane]

Should be a decent breakaway if teams and riders are willing to show ambition beyond the usual wild card teams as there is a chance to go the distance as the 55km downhill in the middle of the stage will deter any major attacks from the start.

Remco should try to make a move on the 2nd ascent of Bellante at the least as if he leaves it until the final time around he will probably get gapped in the final 500 metre kick to the line and lose a few more seconds.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The early climbs today, breakaway policing could be difficult:

 

[search]

Too hard for Matthews in this company if Pogacar chooses to go for it.

maybe, but on paper I'd think the final climb isn't hard enough. I'd be surprised if guys like Matthews or Aranburu don't end up fighting for the win, and I could even see someone like Vendrame or Consonni in contention

 

[Lequack]

Caleb Ewan will win this stage as well.

 

[SafeBet]

Pretty strong break actually.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Pretty strong break actually.

Yes, but of course Ineos is working behind instead of letting Pogi's team or Quickstep do the work...

 

[Red Rick]

Wonder if Ganna can top 5 here

 

[Big Doopie]

Wonder if Ganna can top 5 here

Today or at the end of the week in GC?

 

[search]

Caleb Ewan will win this stage as well.

but now abandoned the race

 

[Samamba]

Look I don't want 2 breakaway wins on the same day so pls someone start chasing.
BEX having Grmay in the break is annoying, they won't ride.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Look I don't want 2 breakaway wins on the same day so pls someone start chasing.
BEX having Grmay in the break is annoying, they won't ride.

Nah, I have Einer Rubio and Diego Rosa on my Cq ranking game team, so this is fine.

 

[Boes]

Nice to see Remco's trying something. But he needs something else (and something more) the beat poggyboy

 

[Big Doopie]

Pog not pulling hard. Remco doing too much.