Tom Danielson's Tour Chances

[ultimobici]

Amazing the lack of respect Danielson gets. He is one of the top US riders. How many other riders have 3 top 10s in a GT? LeMond, Armstrong, Leipheimer, Hampstein?

I don't understand why the expectations are so high for Tommy D. He's excelled when healthy. Unfortunately, he's gotten beat up in some crashes, unfortunately gotten sick at the wrong time. So he hasn't been as lucky as some. VV has been a super domestic, he's been just as unlucky as TD these last few years, yet he get's way more respect for this years Tour. Ryder has had one good GT result.

I wonder how many other US Pro's would like to have his race resume? How many euro pros? I bet a lot would.

I'm hoping he does well and finishes top 10.

So he's got in the top 10 of the Vuelta? Whoopie doo! Other than that the only results he has are the 2006 Tour of Austria and a couple of placings in the Tour of Poland and the Tour de Burgos.

Poor ****** got saddled with the "Next Lance" and either cracked under the pressure of expectation or simply didn't really have "it".

Either way, he will not make it into the top 20 IMO.

 

[hrotha]

Most Euro pros don't get to ride a GT so in that sense I'm sure most would like to be more like Danielson.

 

[Angliru]

You contradict yourself. You state that you don't understand why the expectations are so high in your first statement, then you state why expectations are high in the second.

SHHHH! You weren't supposed to notice that!

 

[Deagol]

....

Poor ****** got saddled with the "Next Lance" and either cracked under the pressure of expectation or simply didn't really have "it".

....

Yeah, I would hate to have that label placed upon me if I were him. Seems like a set-up for failure no matter how you perform. Hopefully he has gained perspective and would not be swept-up in the hype.

 

[BillytheKid]

So he's got in the top 10 of the Vuelta? Whoopie doo! Other than that the only results he has are the 2006 Tour of Austria and a couple of placings in the Tour of Poland and the Tour de Burgos.

Poor ****** got saddled with the "Next Lance" and either cracked under the pressure of expectation or simply didn't really have "it".

Either way, he will not make it into the top 20 IMO.

You could be a little more blunt.

Tommy D can have a good ride in France. As with the Vuelta last year, he seems suffer from the "bad day" syndrome, but I would put him well within the top 20 and even a top 10 if the team rides for him. As I recall, he did not have much team support in the mountains during the Vuelta last year.

And he did just have a top 10 at the Suisse with a 5th in the final ITT which you seem to have forgotton.

 

[mwbyrd]

You contradict yourself. You state that you don't understand why the expectations are so high in your first statement, then you state why expectations are high in the second.

Maybe I should have been more clear with what I meant.

Most of the posts on this thread are saying Danielson isn't that great, he'll crash, he will get sick, have a bad day and will never WIN the big one. The way I read it, most people are considering Danielson a failure because he hasn't won a GT.

Poor guy has had some seriously bad luck but done great when healthy. My opinion is he is one of America's best GT riders.

I bet most people on this forum would be happy to finish top 5 in a Cat 3 Crit. How many people have the talent to finish in the top 10 in a GT three times - which to me is a VERY big deal.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

He is one of America's best GT riders. But though he has had a lot of bad luck, there are other things that have prevented him from getting to the top. Part of it has been being usurped by stronger or younger talents, part of it has been that he's on a team that has invariably split its focus between the sprinters and the GC men, and part of it has been that I really can't see any evidence of any killer instinct in him. His palmarès is one of reasonable placements in stages and GCs but little in the way of victories; even in most of his best stage racing placements he hasn't done much in the way of lighting up stages (apart from that anomalous win into Granada in 2006). That Vuelta stage win in 2006 was his last road victory - the handful since then have all been ITTs (mostly shortish) and TTTs.

In his Vuelta top 10 last year, he didn't finish higher than 9th on any stage other than the TTT. In 2009, he was lying 9th overall when he had to drop out on stage 18. He had managed a 7th in the Valencia ITT, but apart from that his highest finish was 9th. At no point did he go stagehunting; at no point did he drop time to get in the break; at no time did he threaten the heads of state.

Danielson is not about to top 5 the Tour de France. He might, if things go absolutely his way and the other GC men on his team crack, sneak a top 10. But those mountain performances in the Vuelta recently are unspectacular, and the average pace of racing at the Tour is higher as well.

Danielson probably has the ability to compete for a top 10, but he won't be unequivocal leader (which would be helpful for him in order to achieve this scenario), he probably won't go stagehunting, and he won't be allowed to go in a break until he's down a few minutes, like Plaza and Horner last year, because he's too talented to let go. I think he has the ability. But enough people have put their faith in him enough times and found that some combination of luck, tactics, psychological state and injury has always cut him down, so they've stopped putting their faith in him.

 

[Angliru]

Maybe I should have been more clear with what I meant.

Most of the posts on this thread are saying Danielson isn't that great, he'll crash, he will get sick, have a bad day and will never WIN the big one. The way I read it, most people are considering Danielson a failure because he hasn't won a GT.

Poor guy has had some seriously bad luck but done great when healthy. My opinion is he is one of America's best GT riders.

I bet most people on this forum would be happy to finish top 5 in a Cat 3 Crit. How many people have the talent to finish in the top 10 in a GT three times - which to me is a VERY big deal.

From what I've understood and that has been repeated by his team managers is that he could never master riding in the large peloton. He was constantly waisting energy riding in the wind and/or losing position and having to fight to regain it. He'd often be dropped before the ultimate climb and sometimes before the summit of the penultimate one as a result. He did get a rather late start to riding in Europe and IMO he never adapted as quickly as was expected.

His luck hasn't been any worse than the typical professional so that isn't a valid explanation. I agree he is one of America's best GT riders and his results are up there in the top 10 all time of America's GT performers. It was his bad luck to arrive on the tail end of Armstrong's 7 year run of Tour domination. He was the next big hope that never even made it to the big dance until this year.

 

[Eric8-A]

How good is Danielson as a descender?

 

[Ruudz0r]

Not to well in Suisse the stage that Sagan won and Cunego got in 2nd, Danielson came up on top of the last climb with the group Soler/Schleck, he finished behind the group and was passed by a few riders (I dont know if he had punctured or a mechanical though, but I think it was bad decending).

 

[jaylew]

When did Tommy D do this?

Last thing we need is another bald American GC guy.

 

[Eric8-A]

He looks like the tip of male genitalia

 

[hrotha]

When did Tommy D do this?

Last thing we need is another bald American GC guy.

I might have to reconsider my support for Danielson.

 

[BeachBum]

From what I've understood and that has been repeated by his team managers is that he could never master riding in the large peloton. He was constantly waisting energy riding in the wind and/or losing position and having to fight to regain it. He'd often be dropped before the ultimate climb and sometimes before the summit of the penultimate one as a result.

I've read the same articles. Now he's going to ride in the largest, fastest, most on-edge peloton? High likelihood of crashing out.

Angliru had the right idea in an earlier post-- Vaughters should just tell him to relax, no expectations, help RH and CvV, and see what happens.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

I might have to reconsider my support for Danielson.

The dude is bald. What should he do? Walk around like Levi, looking like he is ready to join an order of monastic monks?

Danielson did age fast, though. From young and talented hopeful to bald middle ager with no career in between.

 

[roundabout]

Looks like gradual hair loss to me

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_photos.asp?riderid=938

Together with a gradual decline in expectations

 

[hrotha]

The dude is bald. What should he do? Walk around like Levi, looking like he is ready to join an order of monastic monks?

Danielson did age fast, though. From young and talented hopeful to bald middle ager with no career in between.

The dude isn't bald, he shaves his balding head. Completely different!

Also, ages ago I already mentioned that for some reason I'm unable to root for baldies.
(The mandatory helmet rule did help in this regard)

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

The dude isn't bald, he shaves his balding head. Completely different!

If you get to the point where you have to shave your head to make yourself look better then you are bald.

He needs to grow a goatee and get a few tats. This could be the start of a whole new Tommy D.

Who's the cat that won't cop out
When there's danger all about?
Tommy D, right on

They say this cat Tommy is a bad mother--
Shut your mouth
But I'm talkin' 'bout Tommy
Then we can dig it

 

[Midnightfright]

If you get to the point where you have to shave your head to make yourself look better then you are bald.

He needs to grow a goatee and get a few tats. This could be the start of a whole new Tommy D.

Who's the cat that won't cop out
When there's danger all about?
Tommy D, right on

They say this cat Tommy is a bad mother--
Shut your mouth
But I'm talkin' 'bout Tommy
Then we can dig it

I could dig this .

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

So Danielson managed to finish the first week relatively unscathed with minimal time loss. It is an amazing feat for him. His chances of a top ten have gone up considerably.

I am betting that he ends up as the highest placed Garmin rider.

 

[kurtinsc]

The dude isn't bald, he shaves his balding head. Completely different!

Also, ages ago I already mentioned that for some reason I'm unable to root for baldies.
(The mandatory helmet rule did help in this regard)

Sadly, I'm getting close to the point where I might shave my head as well. The hairline keeps creeping upward... eventually you have to realize that a shaved head looks better then a bald crown and receding hairline.

I'm not there yet... but the corners of the hairline are starting to turn in. Only a year or two left before I become a baldy too.

 

[Parrulo]

Sadly, I'm getting close to the point where I might shave my head as well. The hairline keeps creeping upward... eventually you have to realize that a shaved head looks better then a bald crown and receding hairline.

I'm not there yet... but the corners of the hairline are starting to turn in. Only a year or two left before I become a baldy too.

can we stop with the going bald talk? both my grandparents are bald and i have been losing a lot of hair lately prolly because of the stress from college exams but still . . .

 

[Anonymous]

He looks like the tip of male genitalia

It is the tip of a male genitalia, the face was photoshopped on.

 

[Anonymous]

Are we talking about baldness now?

 

[kurtinsc]

Are we talking about baldness now?

It's an american cyclist over the age of 30. How can baldness not be the topic?