Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Kwibus]

Re:

he didn't fool anyone c'mon, he will have the pink jersey until cividale with ease. but a multi-mountain stage raced hard, i doubt that he will survive.
for top 10 maybe

i would be happy to prove me wrong, by the way.

Listen to Jens. Pretty much always listen to Jens

 

[Kwibus]

Saw it from the start. Everybody, including dutch fanboys, said nah.

Now I'm just getting the feeling Dumoulin just fooled everyone and knows perfectly well what he is doing. Looks even stronger than Vuelta last year. What the hell.

Fooled everyone? many saw through it, especially after tuesday

Whatever. The fact he was going for pink and try to hold it for as long as possible is something he never denied. He just expects to get dropped in the last week and so do I.
He didn't prepare for it. He prepared for the TT's and his main goal is Brasil, but that doesn't mean he can't survive stages like this. Wait for the final week when they race a multi mountain stage hard. Then it's bye bye Tom and then you will claim that he failed I assume?

It's simple. He didn't prepare for the high mountains. No altitude training and he trained in the Netherlands instead of the mountains. So he never had the intentions to kill the GC, but he will take whatever he can and still if he is in pink in Torino then he still didn't prepare for the Giro with the GC in mind.

 

[RedheadDane]

Well... Valverde for sure isn't buying his I'm only here for the Time Trials spiel!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/valverde-dumoulin-tried-to-mislead-the-enemy-with-his-giro-ditalia-tactics/

“What Dumoulin said about only focusing on the time trials? They were comments designed to throw off and mislead the enemy,” Valverde told La Gazzetta dello Sport.

“We are all professional enough to know who he is, his caliber, that he’s feeling good and that, at the moment, he’s a tough rival to take very much into account.”

 

[Cannibal72]

All you needed to use was your common sense...

Now I'm just getting the feeling Dumoulin just fooled everyone and knows perfectly well what he is doing. Looks even stronger than Vuelta last year. What the hell.

The biggest problem with the common sense is that most of the people are below average in intelligence (morons)

This is untrue by definition.

Anyway, I think that Dumoulin's comments have been overplayed. He got a bit more categorical leading up to the prologue, but his stance was always that he wasn't specifically targeting the GC, but that if he felt good or was in a good position he'd try and make a go of it. That seems to be exactly what he's doing.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

The biggest problem with the common sense is that most of the people are below average in intelligence (morons)

This is untrue by definition.

Incorrect. It is perfectly possible for the majority of a certain group to be below average.

http://blog.dictionary.com/mean-median-mode/

E.g. if Peter has an IQ of 121, while Paul, John and Henry all have an IQ of 93, then 75% of them will be below average in intelligence.

 

[SeriousSam]

IQ scores are normally distributed (implying mean equals median) by construction. So it's not untrue by definition if we talk about the latent attribute intelligence, but it is untrue by definition for its most popular measure, IQ.

Going back to Dumoulin, I like his chances if his main competition will be Landa, who he will absolutely murder in the ITT. Might be enough to hang on to his lead.

If Nibali recovers to a decent form, though, it's not looking so good.

 

[Ataraxus]

The biggest problem with the common sense is that most of the people are below average in intelligence (morons)

This is untrue by definition.

Incorrect. It is perfectly possible for the majority of a certain group to be below average.

http://blog.dictionary.com/mean-median-mode/

E.g. if Peter has an IQ of 121, while Paul, John and Henry all have an IQ of 93, then 75% of them will be below average in intelligence.

Thank you

 

[elfed68]

I see Tom Dumoulin as a rider who's brought back excitement to the GC races.
They all know his TT prowess so it forces the climbers to attack and gain seconds.
I hope he manages to keep the jersey and we'll get an exciting race, unlike the wait till a couple of miles from the summit predictability of late.

 

[Cannibal72]

The biggest problem with the common sense is that most of the people are below average in intelligence (morons)

This is untrue by definition.

Incorrect. It is perfectly possible for the majority of a certain group to be below average.

http://blog.dictionary.com/mean-median-mode/

E.g. if Peter has an IQ of 121, while Paul, John and Henry all have an IQ of 93, then 75% of them will be below average in intelligence.

But the original post does not specify that by 'most of the people' it is referring exclusively to one group of people. Instead, it implies strongly that it is referring to humanity as a whole.

IQ scores are normally distributed (implying mean equals median) by construction. So it's not untrue by definition if we talk about the latent attribute intelligence, but it is untrue by definition for its most popular measure, IQ.

Going back to Dumoulin, I like his chances if his main competition will be Landa, who he will absolutely murder in the ITT. Might be enough to hang on to his lead.

If Nibali recovers to a decent form, though, it's not looking so good.

I would suggest that there's no average for the latent attribute intelligence, since that is impossible to measure; using IQ as a proxy of course leads into the issue of the bell curve that IQ is plotted on, which as you say ensures that there should be equal numbers of people either side of 100.

 

[cineteq]

Re:

If he didn't say that before stage 2, it doesn't count. Talking after the fact is cheap.

Well... Valverde for sure isn't buying his I'm only here for the Time Trials spiel!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/valverde-dumoulin-tried-to-mislead-the-enemy-with-his-giro-ditalia-tactics/

“What Dumoulin said about only focusing on the time trials? They were comments designed to throw off and mislead the enemy,” Valverde told La Gazzetta dello Sport.

“We are all professional enough to know who he is, his caliber, that he’s feeling good and that, at the moment, he’s a tough rival to take very much into account.”

 

[cineteq]

They believe everything they read or listen to. They don't pay attention to body language or actions.

All you needed to use was your common sense...

Now I'm just getting the feeling Dumoulin just fooled everyone and knows perfectly well what he is doing. Looks even stronger than Vuelta last year. What the hell.

The biggest problem with the common sense is that most of the people are below average in intelligence (morons)

 

[classicomano]

Again,Tom didnt purposely try and pull the whool over peoples eyes. Hes been upfront about his ambitions and preperation for this Giro, albeit a bit more cautious then maybe necessary.
And so far we have had 0 mountain stages to see if hes actually much beter on the climbs than he anticipated beforehand. So im not sure where all these "I told you so" posts are coming from.

 

[RedheadDane]

Morten Bennekou (DS with Giant) said today that it really was the intention that he should focus on the TTs, but he simply surprised everyone, even himself.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Dumoulin is becoming one of those nasty opponents that are supposedly easy to get rid of but are actually very hard to get rid of. He could be the new Olano, a great time trialist who can limit the damage in the mountains. One problem however is his team in the mountains. If he gets dropped before the final climb who will be there to help him? They have more climbers compared to last year's Vuelta, but they can't compete with Astana, Sky and Movistar in that department.

I just read the news article on Cyclingnews saying that Dumoulin advised Wellens to attack yesterday and promised they wouldn't chase him. So Lotto will be an ally. Don't be surprised if you see Wellens doing something back for Dumoulin.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Morten Bennekou (DS with Giant) said today that it really was the intention that he should focus on the TTs, but he simply surprised everyone, even himself.

He keeps getting surprised by himself since August last year. Tom has no idea what Dumoulin is capable of.

 

[elfed68]

Re:

I just read the news article on Cyclingnews saying that Dumoulin advised Wellens to attack yesterday and promised they wouldn't chase him. So Lotto will be an ally. Don't be surprised if you see Wellens doing something back for Dumoulin.

Clever guy, liking him even more!

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Again,Tom didnt purposely try and pull the whool over peoples eyes. Hes been upfront about his ambitions and preperation for this Giro, albeit a bit more cautious then maybe necessary.
And so far we have had 0 mountain stages to see if hes actually much beter on the climbs than he anticipated beforehand. So im not sure where all these "I told you so" posts are coming from.

The "I told you so" posts and the "Tom is playing mindgames" posts are quite frustating.

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin went into the Giro with the aim of taking the MR in the prologue, and holding it as long as he can. That's what he's doing, he never lied about that.

 

[Taxus4a]

Domoulin said today he is changing his mind and he can dispute the overall.

What is important is that he is in a good moment, and now we can enjoy him.

 

[cineteq]

Re:

This!

Tom has no idea what Dumoulin is capable of.

He should stay in the present and forget about Rio!

Domoulin said today he is changing his mind and he can dispute the overall.

 

[trevim]

I really like Dumoulin but I don't think he's a contender. Even if there doesn't seem to be a top contender to smash all the others in the mountains, I would say that "average climbers" like Majka or Chaves for instance will take a lot of time because of the parcours alone: the Dolomites are not the Sierras de Madrid.

I believe Dumoulin can survive until Corvara at the most: Pordoi, Giau and Valparola are no joke and he should be dropped like a stone in there even in the best shape of his life. Even if he survives I can't see how he can hold on in the mighty Agnello where the last 8km average close to 10% at more than 2000m. Not even to mention Bonnette, Lombarda, Fai della Paganella or Risoul.

Also the team isn't more prepared than at last year's Vuelta: Preidler is the only decent climber in there, maybe Ludvigsson or Haga in a very good day. But none of them is as good as Craddock.

Still, I hope Dumoulin gets to the mountains with a big amount of time. It'll make for some exciting race

 

[Taxus4a]

I really like Dumoulin but I don't think he's a contender. Even if there doesn't seem to be a top contender to smash all the others in the mountains, I would say that "average climbers" like Majka or Chaves for instance will take a lot of time because of the parcours alone: the Dolomites are not the Sierras de Madrid.

I believe Dumoulin can survive until Corvara at the most: Pordoi, Giau and Valparola are no joke and he should be dropped like a stone in there even in the best shape of his life. Even if he survives I can't see how he can hold on in the mighty Agnello where the last 8km average close to 10% at more than 2000m. Not even to mention Bonnette, Lombarda, Fai della Paganella or Risoul.

Also the team isn't more prepared than at last year's Vuelta: Preidler is the only decent climber in there, maybe Ludvigsson or Haga in a very good day. But none of them is as good as Craddock.

Still, I hope Dumoulin gets to the mountains with a big amount of time. It'll make for some exciting race

There are just 3 stages where Domoulin can struggle with those people... and I think that he has more engine that Majka or Chaves, he will be better at the end. In the rest of the stages he even can put time, he was very good in Asturias and in Andorra, and that were really hard mountains... similar to Giau (at no so high altitude, but if Tom is isolated and nobody help him in Agenllo and Landa attack and he try to follow, he could blow up and he could lose in Risould even half an hour...cycling is like that...

It i a mistake doesnt count him as a contender, but of course he shoudl have problem in the high mountains with pure climbers...especially this year he didnt concentrate in altitude, and Bionette i at 2800 meters high...

 

[Singer01]

The biggest problem with the common sense is that most of the people are below average in intelligence (morons)

This is untrue by definition.

Incorrect. It is perfectly possible for the majority of a certain group to be below average.

http://blog.dictionary.com/mean-median-mode/

E.g. if Peter has an IQ of 121, while Paul, John and Henry all have an IQ of 93, then 75% of them will be below average in intelligence.

however that doesn't change the fact that intelligence and common sense are two totally different things.

 

[trevim]

I really like Dumoulin but I don't think he's a contender. Even if there doesn't seem to be a top contender to smash all the others in the mountains, I would say that "average climbers" like Majka or Chaves for instance will take a lot of time because of the parcours alone: the Dolomites are not the Sierras de Madrid.

I believe Dumoulin can survive until Corvara at the most: Pordoi, Giau and Valparola are no joke and he should be dropped like a stone in there even in the best shape of his life. Even if he survives I can't see how he can hold on in the mighty Agnello where the last 8km average close to 10% at more than 2000m. Not even to mention Bonnette, Lombarda, Fai della Paganella or Risoul.

Also the team isn't more prepared than at last year's Vuelta: Preidler is the only decent climber in there, maybe Ludvigsson or Haga in a very good day. But none of them is as good as Craddock.

Still, I hope Dumoulin gets to the mountains with a big amount of time. It'll make for some exciting race

There are just 3 stages where Domoulin can struggle with those people... and I think that he has more engine that Majka or Chaves, he will be better at the end. In the rest of the stages he even can put time, he was very good in Asturias and in Andorra, and that were really hard mountains... similar to Giau (at no so high altitude, but if Tom is isolated and nobody help him in Agenllo and Landa attack and he try to follow, he could blow up and he could lose in Risould even half an hour...cycling is like that...

It i a mistake doesnt count him as a contender, but of course he shoudl have problem in the high mountains with pure climbers...especially this year he didnt concentrate in altitude, and Bionette i at 2800 meters high...

Yeah of course Dumoulin shouldn't be treated like a nobody meaning no free time allowed anymore and no team mates in key breakaways. Other than that I still think Dolomites are two level above everything else he had to face in Spain.

 

[Wurfel]

I really like Dumoulin but I don't think he's a contender. Even if there doesn't seem to be a top contender to smash all the others in the mountains, I would say that "average climbers" like Majka or Chaves for instance will take a lot of time because of the parcours alone: the Dolomites are not the Sierras de Madrid.

I believe Dumoulin can survive until Corvara at the most: Pordoi, Giau and Valparola are no joke and he should be dropped like a stone in there even in the best shape of his life. Even if he survives I can't see how he can hold on in the mighty Agnello where the last 8km average close to 10% at more than 2000m. Not even to mention Bonnette, Lombarda, Fai della Paganella or Risoul.

Also the team isn't more prepared than at last year's Vuelta: Preidler is the only decent climber in there, maybe Ludvigsson or Haga in a very good day. But none of them is as good as Craddock.

Still, I hope Dumoulin gets to the mountains with a big amount of time. It'll make for some exciting race

There are just 3 stages where Domoulin can struggle with those people... and I think that he has more engine that Majka or Chaves, he will be better at the end. In the rest of the stages he even can put time, he was very good in Asturias and in Andorra, and that were really hard mountains... similar to Giau (at no so high altitude, but if Tom is isolated and nobody help him in Agenllo and Landa attack and he try to follow, he could blow up and he could lose in Risould even half an hour...cycling is like that...

It i a mistake doesnt count him as a contender, but of course he shoudl have problem in the high mountains with pure climbers...especially this year he didnt concentrate in altitude, and Bionette i at 2800 meters high...

He will have problems for sure in the third week, just like Zakarin will have the same problems in the third week. There will be a lot of pressure and imo it's only a matter of time untill he cracks. I think he knows that too.

The last 10 seasons only 2 riders who used Romandia as last preparation race and finished there in the top 10 could place themselves in the top 10 in Itay too. Menchov in 2008 finished 4th in Romandia and 5th in the Giro. In 2010 Porte finished 10th in Romandia and 7th in the Giro.

Dumoulin and Zakarin were 5th and 4th in Romandia.

In fact it's almost mathematics in modern cycling. If you are too good in Romandia you won't be able to compete with the bests in Italy in the third week. So Dumoulin and Zakarin will come short in the third week. It's just a matter of crossing formcurves. The form of the Giro contenders (Uran, chaves, Majka for example, watch them...) is rising and Dumoulins and Zakarins shape will detoriate or stay the same.