Wurfel said:Taxus4a said:trevim said:I really like Dumoulin but I don't think he's a contender. Even if there doesn't seem to be a top contender to smash all the others in the mountains, I would say that "average climbers" like Majka or Chaves for instance will take a lot of time because of the parcours alone: the Dolomites are not the Sierras de Madrid.
I believe Dumoulin can survive until Corvara at the most: Pordoi, Giau and Valparola are no joke and he should be dropped like a stone in there even in the best shape of his life. Even if he survives I can't see how he can hold on in the mighty Agnello where the last 8km average close to 10% at more than 2000m. Not even to mention Bonnette, Lombarda, Fai della Paganella or Risoul.
Also the team isn't more prepared than at last year's Vuelta: Preidler is the only decent climber in there, maybe Ludvigsson or Haga in a very good day. But none of them is as good as Craddock.
Still, I hope Dumoulin gets to the mountains with a big amount of time. It'll make for some exciting race
There are just 3 stages where Domoulin can struggle with those people... and I think that he has more engine that Majka or Chaves, he will be better at the end. In the rest of the stages he even can put time, he was very good in Asturias and in Andorra, and that were really hard mountains... similar to Giau (at no so high altitude, but if Tom is isolated and nobody help him in Agenllo and Landa attack and he try to follow, he could blow up and he could lose in Risould even half an hour...cycling is like that...
It i a mistake doesnt count him as a contender, but of course he shoudl have problem in the high mountains with pure climbers...especially this year he didnt concentrate in altitude, and Bionette i at 2800 meters high...
He will have problems for sure in the third week, just like Zakarin will have the same problems in the third week. There will be a lot of pressure and imo it's only a matter of time untill he cracks. I think he knows that too.
The last 10 seasons only 2 riders who used Romandia as preparation race and finished there in the top 10 could place themselves in the top 10 in Itay too. Menchov in 2008 finished 4th in Romandia and 5th in the Giro. In 2010 Porte finished 10th in Romandia and 7th in the Giro.
Dumoulin and Zakarin were 5th and 4th in Romandia.
In fact it's almost mathematics in modern cycling. If you are too good in Romandia you won't be able to compete with the bests in Italy in the third week. So Dumoulin and Zakarin will come short in the third week. It's just a matter of crossing formcurves. The form of the Giro contenders (Uran, chaves, Majka for example, watch them...) is rising and Dumoulins and Zakarins shape will detoriate or stay the same.
Romandie is bad if you want to do the GC in the Giro. But very few riders do Romandie + Giro, so sample size is very small, and even then it's very often not the favourites.
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram