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That's disappointing, after having a great 2015 Vuelta, and gaining so much experience in gauging his strength against GC riders, now he's just going to hunt for stages? 
Lexman said:
classicomano
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I think the same thing will happen as in the Vuelta, he will be put in a spot where he cant automatically fold the GC (most likely after the time trial) and probably hang on for a top 10 spot. The GC field in this Giro is not really that deep anyway.cineteq said:That's disappointing, after having a great 2015 Vuelta, and gaining so much experience in gauging his strength against GC riders, now he's just going to hunt for stages?Lexman said:
It has been known a long time ago. He does want to focus on a GT eventually, probably next season. But for now the Olympic TT and thus TT's in general have priority.
This does not mean he will not try to hang on at first. But he has not specificially prepared for mountain stages. No altitude training camps, no lower weight. He actually weights a few kilo's more now (72kg) then at the Vuelta (68kg). He says to be a GT contender he'll probably have to drop even more kilo's for climbing, something in the range of 65kg. But then he will lose some of his TT power, so that will be for 2016
This does not mean he will not try to hang on at first. But he has not specificially prepared for mountain stages. No altitude training camps, no lower weight. He actually weights a few kilo's more now (72kg) then at the Vuelta (68kg). He says to be a GT contender he'll probably have to drop even more kilo's for climbing, something in the range of 65kg. But then he will lose some of his TT power, so that will be for 2016
I have looked at the stages at this Giro and I do not see any strong mountain focus like in previous Giro's. I definitely think TomD can hold this till the end. I think this Giro fits someone of TomD skills based on last year's Vuelta. He can hold his own in the mountains, he seems slimmer than last year's Vuelta which means improvement in the mountains. If I had seen 3 consecutive MTFs, I would have said count him out, that fits the like of Landa, but this Giro does not even have 2 consecutive days of MTFs. It will take some smart riding to win this Giro and a strong team.
If the risoul, lombarde and corvara stages get cancelled, major tom could podium this. Otherwise no chance
Re:
He weighs 4 kilos more than in the 2015 Vuelta, and struggles more on multi-climb hard ridden stages, of which this Giro has at least three, than 3 consecutive MTFs. Look at the Vuelta last year: 3 consecutive MTFs, loses time but not that much, only about 2 minutes to the GC leaders of each stage, yet on stage 20 he lost 4 minutes. And he has a bad team. Another stage win? yes. Winning (barrring intense snow, but even so I expect him to lose 3-4 minutes on the Cividale stage)? no.
jilbiker said:
He weighs 4 kilos more than in the 2015 Vuelta, and struggles more on multi-climb hard ridden stages, of which this Giro has at least three, than 3 consecutive MTFs. Look at the Vuelta last year: 3 consecutive MTFs, loses time but not that much, only about 2 minutes to the GC leaders of each stage, yet on stage 20 he lost 4 minutes. And he has a bad team. Another stage win? yes. Winning (barrring intense snow, but even so I expect him to lose 3-4 minutes on the Cividale stage)? no.
He'll have a chance on top 10 max, but I think he won't go for it. If he gets dropped bad on 1 stage he'll conserve energy
Re:
This I expect him to take it easy on the Corvara stage, so he'll be able to go all out in the MTT, he said that he's targeting all 3 TTs.Dekker_Tifosi said:
That's the weird thing. I don't expect him to have any chances of winning the MTT. And if he had, he could top 5.
Who knows, he was pretty strong on the Alto de Aia (time wise) in the Pais Vasco ITT he won. But that was more of a hill..
Still, some TT-ers turned GC men did strong MTT's...
Still, some TT-ers turned GC men did strong MTT's...
Re:
I think Major Tom saying he won't target the GC is a matter of playing it down and not getting too much expectation on his shoulders.. no doubt in my mind he will fight and claw the rest of the Giro when he has demolished them in the ITT unless he drops spectacularly in Corvara
Dekker_Tifosi said:
I think Major Tom saying he won't target the GC is a matter of playing it down and not getting too much expectation on his shoulders.. no doubt in my mind he will fight and claw the rest of the Giro when he has demolished them in the ITT unless he drops spectacularly in Corvara
Re:
There isn't a multi mountain stage before stage 13 and especially stage 14 to Corvara and he will most likely lead or be best of the GC-guys at that point. Im certain he will give it a try, but you probably know a bit more about the Dutch riders than me
Dekker_Tifosi said:
There isn't a multi mountain stage before stage 13 and especially stage 14 to Corvara and he will most likely lead or be best of the GC-guys at that point. Im certain he will give it a try, but you probably know a bit more about the Dutch riders than me
Re: Re:
If Tom can have close to a two minute lead after stage 9 then he must at least be an outside chance to win the overall. Not if the entire course is raced, but there is a good chance for some cancelled high mountain stages (or at least reduced ones). That would give Tom a chance to win if he can recapture his Vuelta climbing legs.
Valv.Piti said:Dekker_Tifosi said:
There isn't a multi mountain stage before stage 13 and especially stage 14 to Corvara and he will most likely lead or be best of the GC-guys at that point. Im certain he will give it a try, but you probably know a bit more about the Dutch riders than me
If Tom can have close to a two minute lead after stage 9 then he must at least be an outside chance to win the overall. Not if the entire course is raced, but there is a good chance for some cancelled high mountain stages (or at least reduced ones). That would give Tom a chance to win if he can recapture his Vuelta climbing legs.
Just read that he only tried pro cycling because he didn't get into med school. Thank Vino for numerus fixus in med school in the Netherlands
Re:
The same people said about Indurain.
Last year in la Vuelta he was one of the best in Andorra and Asturias, really tought stages.
He droped in la Morcuera becouse he was alone and Landa was superb, and he was close to catch in the descent.
Of course he could have and explosion and to lose a lot in one fo the queen stages of this Giro...but someone has to do something special for that.
If he go on taking time, he can win the Giro.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
The same people said about Indurain.
Last year in la Vuelta he was one of the best in Andorra and Asturias, really tought stages.
He droped in la Morcuera becouse he was alone and Landa was superb, and he was close to catch in the descent.
Of course he could have and explosion and to lose a lot in one fo the queen stages of this Giro...but someone has to do something special for that.
If he go on taking time, he can win the Giro.
Re: Re:
But he WILL take time.
Worst case scenario is he gets dropped before the last plateau, with 4-5 to go, but he won't. Then theres Poti on stage 8, but Dumoulin really shouldn't have any problem on that stage IMO, but lets see.
Best case, he doesnt lose time on those stages and he demolishes the opposition in the ITT and is now up with 2 minutes to Nibali and Valverde. Thats not unrealistic at all
Taxus4a said:
But he WILL take time.
Worst case scenario is he gets dropped before the last plateau, with 4-5 to go, but he won't. Then theres Poti on stage 8, but Dumoulin really shouldn't have any problem on that stage IMO, but lets see.
Best case, he doesnt lose time on those stages and he demolishes the opposition in the ITT and is now up with 2 minutes to Nibali and Valverde. Thats not unrealistic at all
Re: Re:
Best case indeed as it would result in serious attacking in the mountains. I'm afraid Tom isn't ready to defend though so it won't be that spectaculair.
Valv.Piti said:
Best case indeed as it would result in serious attacking in the mountains. I'm afraid Tom isn't ready to defend though so it won't be that spectaculair.
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