Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

Barguil did a superb Tour. If he had ridden the Tour to challenge the GC he certainly would have finished within the top 5 with a clear shot of a podium finish. He climbed on the level of Froome and Bardet.

It all depends on the parcours. Dumoulin is great in time trials and really good on 1 climb mountain stages. But he is more average on long and tough mountain stages. That's the terrain where Barguil flourishes. He is also from France which is pretty imporant. It all depends how ASO creates the next route. With respect to the success of Bardet, Barguil and Pinot in the mountains this year I expect as little time trial kilometres as this year but considerably more and harder mountain stages in order to give Bardet and Barguil a better shot. So definitely an anti Dumoulin parcours. Dumoulin can climb even long mountains very well nowadays but I really think that Barguil could be the better climber at 200 kilometre stages with 5000m of elevation difference. Dumoulin is more the type of rider that can produce amazing efforts over a time of 30 minutes but stamina is still a bit fragile even though he managed to win this Giro in an amazing way.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He wasn't so average to Ortisei. In fact, he wasn't average on Stelvio as well.

That's 2 very hard, multi mountain stages, where he was really strong.

Don't let the 1 weaker stage to Piancovallo fool you.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

He wasn't so average to Ortisei. In fact, he wasn't average on Stelvio as well.

That's 2 very hard, multi mountain stages, where he was really strong.

Don't let the 1 weaker stage to Piancovallo fool you.

And the Asiago stage where he was dropped wouldn't really have been a problem if he'd had support there.

I think his one weak point is actually that he doesn't like to follow accelerations. He was dropped briefly on Monte Grappa, so I think he's actually vulnerable to attacks near the top of a penultimate climb if he's isolated.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

He wasn't so average to Ortisei. In fact, he wasn't average on Stelvio as well.

That's 2 very hard, multi mountain stages, where he was really strong.

Don't let the 1 weaker stage to Piancovallo fool you.

And the Asiago stage where he was dropped wouldn't really have been a problem if he'd had support there.

I think his one weak point is actually that he doesn't like to follow accelerations. He was dropped briefly on Monte Grappa, so I think he's actually vulnerable to attacks near the top of a penultimate climb if he's isolated.

Well that's exactly what lost him the Vuelta; being isolated near the top of the 2nd last climb, with a lot of km still to race. But then, he'd been isolated all day in that situation. Presumably Sunweb will try very hard to ensure that doesn't happen again.

The "switch to diesel mode" is a good trick for TT specialists against stacatto climbers. If they're fresh and have the energy, and their top achievable average speed up the mountain is as fast or faster than that of the climber.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

He wasn't so average to Ortisei. In fact, he wasn't average on Stelvio as well.

That's 2 very hard, multi mountain stages, where he was really strong.

Don't let the 1 weaker stage to Piancovallo fool you.

And the Asiago stage where he was dropped wouldn't really have been a problem if he'd had support there.

I think his one weak point is actually that he doesn't like to follow accelerations. He was dropped briefly on Monte Grappa, so I think he's actually vulnerable to attacks near the top of a penultimate climb if he's isolated.

I still think he might have lost the giro if the organizers had used the hard side of the Monte Grappa instead of riding around the whole mountain just to use its easiest side, considering how Dumoulin struggled there and how crazy Katusha was riding.

 

[IndianCyclist]

i think they made a mistake with the hammer series participation and TDS. Doing the 2nd GT would be better for challenging the mountain goats as well as gaining experience on managing GC ambitions. The team made a lot of mistakes in the Giro

 

[Bardamu]

Now he doesn't do the Vuelta I hope he will do Lombardia, if he is in form I am sure he can compete for victory.
For next years I hope he will not just focus on the GT's, but also tries to win LBL and Amstel.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Now he doesn't do the Vuelta I hope he will do Lombardia, if he is in form I am sure he can compete for victory.
For next years I hope he will not just focus on the GT's, but also tries to win LBL and Amstel.

I'm not sure he's suited to the Ardennes and the short sudden punchy accelerations. I can't think of a diesel who's won or even finished high up there in recent years; Valverde, Martin, Poels, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Gerrans are all climbers who can sprint/sprinters who can climb.

He did do a huge effort setting up Matthews at MSR, lining out the field and dropping all the true sprinters, and it was only after he sat/blew up on the Poggio that Sagan was able to make the race winning attack. And no reason he can't do similar in Liege to what Hesjedal did setting up Martin in 2013, the question then being who on his team should be the one to benefit; I don't think Matthews has done LBL before, so Barguil if he's even there next year?

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Now he doesn't do the Vuelta I hope he will do Lombardia, if he is in form I am sure he can compete for victory.
For next years I hope he will not just focus on the GT's, but also tries to win LBL and Amstel.

I'm not sure he's suited to the Ardennes and the short sudden punchy accelerations. I can't think of a diesel who's won or even finished high up there in recent years; Valverde, Martin, Poels, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Gerrans are all climbers who can sprint/sprinters who can climb.

He did do a huge effort setting up Matthews at MSR, lining out the field and dropping all the true sprinters, and it was only after he sat/blew up on the Poggio that Sagan was able to make the race winning attack. And no reason he can't do similar in Liege to what Hesjedal did setting up Martin in 2013, the question then being who on his team should be the one to benefit; I don't think Matthews has done LBL before, so Barguil if he's even there next year?

I know it's very different from a classic, but didn't he do pretty well in some of the steep finale's of the Vuelta?...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dumoulin is more explosive then you think. However on long climbs he prefers dieseling.

And no he can't go with guys like Valverde or Martin or anything. But if the stays close and then attacks at a surprising moment he could win a classic. Up until now, Dumoulin's major problem had been that he can't put out good wattage the longer stages become. He's been very slowly evolving and getting better than that. But he can't outright beat classic specialists. He'll need something smart.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Dumoulin is more explosive then you think. However on long climbs he prefers dieseling.

And no he can't go with guys like Valverde or Martin or anything. But if the stays close and then attacks at a surprising moment he could win a classic. Up until now, Dumoulin's major problem had been that he can't put out good wattage the longer stages become. He's been very slowly evolving and getting better than that. But he can't outright beat classic specialists. He'll need something smart.

It's going to be very hard for him to win a classic. Not impossible, but very hard. Specially if he targets GT's.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He won't do so forever. He already said before he likes the classics and likes to target them as well. This year the combination with the Giro made it impossible.

He even said he would like to target Roubaix at some point.

he's not a type like Froome or Armstrong who can just target the same race over and over

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

Now he doesn't do the Vuelta I hope he will do Lombardia, if he is in form I am sure he can compete for victory.
For next years I hope he will not just focus on the GT's, but also tries to win LBL and Amstel.

I'm not sure he's suited to the Ardennes and the short sudden punchy accelerations. I can't think of a diesel who's won or even finished high up there in recent years; Valverde, Martin, Poels, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Gerrans are all climbers who can sprint/sprinters who can climb.

He did do a huge effort setting up Matthews at MSR, lining out the field and dropping all the true sprinters, and it was only after he sat/blew up on the Poggio that Sagan was able to make the race winning attack. And no reason he can't do similar in Liege to what Hesjedal did setting up Martin in 2013, the question then being who on his team should be the one to benefit; I don't think Matthews has done LBL before, so Barguil if he's even there next year?

He finished 4th in this years race

 

[Red Rick]

Looking at the damage Dumoulin was doing on the hills at the nationals, I definitely think he has classics in him.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Looking at the damage Dumoulin was doing on the hills at the nationals, I definitely think he has classics in him.

Wasn't it Dumoulin who was incredilby close to win one of the Canadian classics but got caught by I think Gerrans at the line?

Edit: And he was also pretty good in this years Strade Bianche

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Looking at the damage Dumoulin was doing on the hills at the nationals, I definitely think he has classics in him.

Wasn't it Dumoulin who was incredilby close to win one of the Canadian classics but got caught by I think Gerrans at the line?

Edit: And he was also pretty good in this years Strade Bianche

Yeah. He was in bad form iN Strade Bianche. i thiNK he'D jUST gOtten back frOM AN altituDe blOck>

O gOD my keYbOarD iS DrUnk agaiN

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I don't think Matthews has done LBL before, so Barguil if he's even there next year?

He finished 4th in this years race

You're completely right of course and I have no idea how I missed that.

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

Looking at the damage Dumoulin was doing on the hills at the nationals, I definitely think he has classics in him.

Wasn't it Dumoulin who was incredilby close to win one of the Canadian classics but got caught by I think Gerrans at the line?

Edit: And he was also pretty good in this years Strade Bianche

was also just inches away from silver in 2015 at the Worlds, while it was clear he had lost his top shape. I'm curious what he can do in the Road Race this year.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Looking at the damage Dumoulin was doing on the hills at the nationals, I definitely think he has classics in him.

Wasn't it Dumoulin who was incredilby close to win one of the Canadian classics but got caught by I think Gerrans at the line?

Edit: And he was also pretty good in this years Strade Bianche

was also just inches away from silver in 2015 at the Worlds, while it was clear he had lost his top shape. I'm curious what he can do in the Road Race this year.

Inches? I don't thin so...

 

[Red Rick]

Because that was so terribly televised, we'll never know. He did get away in the last km though.

Dumoulin is probably the only rider who can compete in everything apart from races with no selection at all.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Re:

Because that was so terribly televised, we'll never know. He did get away in the last km though.

Dumoulin is probably the only rider who can compete in everything apart from races with no selection at all.

*cough* Valverde *cough*

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Because that was so terribly televised, we'll never know. He did get away in the last km though.

Dumoulin is probably the only rider who can compete in everything apart from races with no selection at all.

*cough* Valverde *cough*

If a race is barely selective, Valverde will always run into the better sprinter. Dumoulin isn't dependent on hills alone to make something happen, as his rouleur skills are good enough to damage on flat parts too.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think Valverde and Kwiatkowski are more versatile than Dumoulin, but he is certainly high up there.

 

[memyselfandI]

Dumoulin is probably next #1 GT star, but I really don't understand why he skips Vuelta as he needs 2nd GT to be competitive at the TdF next year ?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Dumoulin is probably next #1 GT star, but I really don't understand why he skips Vuelta as he needs 2nd GT to be competitive at the TdF next year ?

I don't understand the assertion that he needs a 2nd GT to be competitive next year?