Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Re:

This pretty much.

Though it would be a cool thing, Dumoulin vs Froome (and Landa, Aru and all) in the Giro meaning the Tour gets devaluated even more. But it's not gonna happen

How would it be devalued?

 

[portugal11]

he is clearly the main favourite to win le tour now, I'm sure he won't ride il giro. dumoulin is even more complete than froome (froome is "only" slightly better in the mountains), I really think he will destroy everyone in the cobbled stage and in the time trial

 

[movingtarget]

I'm sure the GC riders and their managers are tired of Sky's Tour dominance. This is their big chance to address it. No one is forcing Froome to do the Giro. I don't think Dumoulin is the certainty that some people seem to think he is in the Tour. He will find it's a very different race to the Giro. Although a Dumoulin Tour win is more probable than Froome doing the double. Be interesting to see what role Geraint Thomas will take and what his race schedule will be. I can't see him riding both races for Froome willingly. He's probably hung round too long with Sky even though the jury is out on whether he can podium a GT. Richie made the right move but still no success.

 

[Kwibus]

I really dont understand why dumoulin would be thefavourite at the tour. Tt is made so climbers wont lose too much time. Ttt is panflat, sunweb wont win it.

 

[filipepc]

I think so he will go for the Tour. Best chance for him, and Froome is going to have a heavy duty Giro so it make sense he tries to beat a Froome with less rest in the Tour. With the improvment Tom is showing i don´t know if he isn´t a real favorite to the win, but Froome is still the nº1 favorite.

 

[Gigs_98]

I really dont understand why dumoulin would be thefavourite at the tour. Tt is made so climbers wont lose too much time. Ttt is panflat, sunweb wont win it.

This. It seems like people have already forgotten that that Dumoulin was anything but unbeatable in the mountains of the giro. In the last two mountain stages he lost time to many different climbers, not only the likes of Quintana or Nibali but guys like Pozzovivo as well. Not sure he would have won with only one TT and that one as hilly as it will be in the giro and his rivals at the tour will be stronger.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

"in the last 2 mountain stages he lost time to many different climbers"

what
he had 1 bad stage at piancovallo. He barely lost 15 seconds in the other. Lol. Funny

 

[Kwibus]

I really dont understand why dumoulin would be thefavourite at the tour. Tt is made so climbers wont lose too much time. Ttt is panflat, sunweb wont win it.

This. It seems like people have already forgotten that that Dumoulin was anything but unbeatable in the mountains of the giro. In the last two mountain stages he lost time to many different climbers, not only the likes of Quintana or Nibali but guys like Pozzovivo as well. Not sure he would have won with only one TT and that one as hilly as it will be in the giro and his rivals at the tour will be stronger.

Keep in mind, that without his dump he probably didnt lose 2 minutes.

Still I think people overrate his chances this tour.

 

[Red Rick]

I think Dumoulin's climbing is a bit underrated. He totally would've been there on the Umbrail. He recovered after his bad day.

I also think that the cobbled stage and the TTT may be more important than the ITT.

Lastly, I think Sunweb should totally send Oomen and Kelderman to the Tour without a Giro beforehand.

 

[portugal11]

I really dont understand why dumoulin would be thefavourite at the tour. Tt is made so climbers wont lose too much time. Ttt is panflat, sunweb wont win it.

This. It seems like people have already forgotten that that Dumoulin was anything but unbeatable in the mountains of the giro. In the last two mountain stages he lost time to many different climbers, not only the likes of Quintana or Nibali but guys like Pozzovivo as well. Not sure he would have won with only one TT and that one as hilly as it will be in the giro and his rivals at the tour will be stronger.

Keep in mind, that without his dump he probably didnt lose 2 minutes.

Still I think people overrate his chances this tour.

I really don't think so. the 2017 giro was the first gt he really aimed. he is such a beast, he won the giro "alone" against the likes of nibali and quintana. these two are the best gt riders after froome in the last 4 years. he is so complete that I am sure he will destroy his rivals on windy, cobbled, hilly stages.

 

[Rollthedice]

Tom proved he can climb with the best and on certain climbs that favour more his characteristics he can beat them all. I think it would be a big mistake if he will not go to the Tour. He would be the only rider who can count on an advantage over Froome in both the time trials.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Tom proved he can climb with the best and on certain climbs that favour more his characteristics he can beat them all. I think it would be a big mistake if he will not go to the Tour. He would be the only rider who can count on an advantage over Froome in both the time trials.

Pretty much. Only 3 mountain stages don't suit him. Romme-Colombiere, AdH and Portet.

He limited Quintana to 24 seconds on Blockhaus. He toughed it out stages as hard as the queen stage of the Tour. If he doesn't break down, I think he's the favorite.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Tom proved he can climb with the best and on certain climbs that favour more his characteristics he can beat them all. I think it would be a big mistake if he will not go to the Tour. He would be the only rider who can count on an advantage over Froome in both the time trials.

Pretty much. Only 3 mountain stages don't suit him. Romme-Colombiere, AdH and Portet.

He limited Quintana to 24 seconds on Blockhaus. He toughed it out stages as hard as the queen stage of the Tour. If he doesn't break down, I think he's the favorite.

I think he should go to the Tour. He already proved his worth at the Vuelta and in Italy. Maybe the Tour is a different animal. Maybe not. If stress caused his bathroom break, then the Tour can be a lot worse than the Giro. And that's independent of his quality which he has already proven.

I also belive that towards the last week of the Giro Quintana was already showing signs of fatigue and his performance was underpar. Thing that he carried into the Tour. Top Dumoulin, top Froome and top Quintana would have been a lot nicer.

Anyway, I really want Dumoulin to go the Tour. They already assembled a very good team for him. That's a big plus. He can win the Tour against the climbers in the pave. That difference and the TT could proof to be anough time to win. But, let's not get carried away.

 

[Poursuivant]

Another reason he should go tdf, in my opinion is, if Froome comes in not 100%, as expected, where will he drop Dumoulin? He couldn't drop Uran and Bardet pretty much all TDF, but bested them in TT. TD will have the TT advantage this time, so it'll be interesting how Sky approach it.

 

[yaco]

For me the TDF is a no-brainer - The TDF parcours seems to be one that suits all-round riders and it must be remembered Dumoulin won the Eneco Tour in 2017 - The different terrain should suit his characteristics and in my mind the TDF has 66kms of TTing, if you consider the 35km TTT, in which Sunweb should do well

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I would wet myself if he announced that he would be doubling up like Froome! I know it won't happen though. I think if he wants an easier route to another GT win he should do the Tour. Froome will go all out for the Giro win and maybe the Vuelta. Maybe he's dreaming of winning his 5th Tour (2019) in the world champs jersey.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

"in the last 2 mountain stages he lost time to many different climbers"

what
he had 1 bad stage at piancovallo. He barely lost 15 seconds in the other. Lol. Funny

So did he los time to many different climbers in the last mountain stages? Yes
So is there anything wrong with what you quoted? no

Also, he only lost 15 seconds in the last stage but he lost 30 seconds on the climb. I'm not claiming Dumoulin has no chance of winning the tour, I just think some people are overrating his chances thinking he is the outstanding favorite.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

And I think you are overdoing it things with quotes like that, which is what Itried to show.

Context.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Another reason he should go tdf, in my opinion is, if Froome comes in not 100%, as expected, where will he drop Dumoulin? He couldn't drop Uran and Bardet pretty much all TDF, but bested them in TT. TD will have the TT advantage this time, so it'll be interesting how Sky approach it.

Bardet had no trouble making breaks but Sky had no trouble closing them down except on one stage where Froome punctured and it took longer to get back. As for Uran well he was just riding for a podium and by doing so he got his GT career back on track but just made Froome's victory more inevitable with his tactics. He rode smart but it was dull to watch. The trouble for Bardet was the other GC riders were not good enough to go with him or unwilling to. An underdone Aru, and Porte and Fuglsang crashing out could not have worked out better for Sky. Be interesting to see how Aru climbs against Froome in the Giro on a full prep. The Tour looks to be the race for Dumoulin and it's good timing to meet Froome with the Giro in his legs.

 

[Red Rick]

I would expect Nibali and Quintana to show up better in the 2018 Tour than in the last Giro. There is also Richie Porte. Dumoulin will need to take his sweet time in the first week. Can't count on too much time in the ITT.

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

Dumoulin will need to take his sweet time in the first week. Can't count on too much time in the ITT.

Tommy D needs to get something from the TTT or on the pavé otherwise it's trying to out climb Sky. Difficult.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I would expect Nibali and Quintana to show up better in the 2018 Tour than in the last Giro. There is also Richie Porte. Dumoulin will need to take his sweet time in the first week. Can't count on too much time in the ITT.

If they don't they won't be on the podium. Nibali's team lacks depth while Quintana' team seem to get themselves in a muddle sometimes with tactics. I thought the old Astana team which Nibali had was much more effective and much more aggressive than Movistar. Dumoulin has to be careful not to to split his team in the TTT, sometimes one strong TT rider can be a problem in the TTT if one or two riders are not having a good day. Sky might have problems trying to decide who to leave out of the squad in each GT. Logic says it will probably be a climber in the Tour considering the first week and the TTT and a flat stage specialist in the Giro. The advantage with having Moscon and Kwia is that they can do both and he will still have Poels, Thomas and others in the mountains.

 

[hazaran]

Re:

"in the last 2 mountain stages he lost time to many different climbers"

what
he had 1 bad stage at piancovallo. He barely lost 15 seconds in the other. Lol. Funny

Check your facts

-30s Stage 9 Blockhaus
+173s Stage 10 ITT
+14s Stage 14 Oropa
-126s Stage 16 (Incident)
-69s Stage 19 Piancavallo
-15s Stage 20 Asiago
+84s Stage 21 ITT

And why on earth would we discount the incident. It's a friggin stage race, overall time is the name of the game. It wasn't exactly his first collapse either. With Froome, multiply the climbing losses and decimate the TT gains.

 

[Leinster]

You also have to factor in that Dumoulin won his Giro almost without a mountain domestique. Ten Dam and Geschke did the best they could, but with no Kelderman, he was on his own early in every mountain stage.

You have to reckon they’ll bring a better climbing group to the Tour this year. Maybe even enough to hold on once the Sky train have dropped all the others.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I would expect Nibali and Quintana to show up better in the 2018 Tour than in the last Giro. There is also Richie Porte. Dumoulin will need to take his sweet time in the first week. Can't count on too much time in the ITT.

If they don't they won't be on the podium. Nibali's team lacks depth while Quintana' team seem to get themselves in a muddle sometimes with tactics. I thought the old Astana team which Nibali had was much more effective and much more aggressive than Movistar. Dumoulin has to be careful not to to split his team in the TTT, sometimes one strong TT rider can be a problem in the TTT if one or two riders are not having a good day. Sky might have problems trying to decide who to leave out of the squad in each GT. Logic says it will probably be a climber in the Tour considering the first week and the TTT and a flat stage specialist in the Giro. The advantage with having Moscon and Kwia is that they can do both and he will still have Poels, Thomas and others in the mountains.

Yeah, the Giro route isn't nearly tricky enough to warrant a strong rouleur squad. They can send the B team, which will still be the strongest in the race.