Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Re:

Tom was absolutely stellar in the first part of Giro, but when rough multi climbing started he was in deep trouble multiple times.
If he can improve on the endurance will be very hard to defeat in the future.
Certainly, on general ground, TdF would suit him a lot better than Giro (climbing wise), if it has enough TT that is.

Big, hard mountain stages aren't necessarily the biggest problem. It's the accumulation of fatigue. Dumoulin matched Quintana and Nibali on the hardest stages and only lost time on the stage to Bormio because of poopgate. Then he missed a split on the stage to Piancavallo, and nearly lost all there. He was on the limit on that climb where the peloton got back together. He faded in the last few days, just like in the Vuelta he lost, though he was decidedly better on the last mountain stage than on Piancavallo, so he recovered a bit.

The last mountain stage could well have turned out identical to the stage that lost him the Vuelta in 2015. What happened on the Morcuera almost happened on the Monte Grappa. Also, in 2015 his performances in the hardest mountain stages weren't much worse than the big uniclimb stages.

His trends in performances in '15 and '17 were similar. Naturally he climbed better across the whole GT in '17,


Honestly if the Giro has 2 ITT's and a prologue and Dumoulin goes there with Kelderman and Oomen as support I have a very hard time seeing anyone beating him.

In the Tour he basically might take a minute tops out of Froome in the ITT, so he basically has to match Froome uphill all Tour long, and he can lose all his chances of yellow in one climb. And that's without considering that Froome will focus entirely on the Tour next year, so he won't be as vulnerable as this year.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think he will defend his Giro title

I hope not, the Giro looks wideopen currently based on assumed participants, if he goes he becomes the prohibitive favourite.

Only if amount of TT-ing is similar to this year. If not, he's not the outright favorite then.

What if he never has to stop for a poop during a stage? Is he back to being a favourite then?

No, he isn't. Without significant amount of TT, he won't win a GT again.

I disagree. Dumoulin has matched the top climbers in the hardest stages in the Giro. It's avoiding isolation and bad days that is the bigger issue. The climbing level across the race is a more important for Dumoulin's chances than the route. If the field is weak, he can just outclimb them if necessary, but if the top climbers are way better, they really only need one stage to take minutes out of him if they play their cards right.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Re:

(And frankly, riders that have incidents like that tend to have them .. *again and again*. Aru will always fade, Valverde will never deal with the altitude.)

Yes, Valverde will always struggle with altitude, Aru will always fade, Contador will always attack, Froome will always look at his power meter, Nibali will always be lucky and Dumoulin will always poop. It's the truth. I heard he usually has to poop once a day, sometimes more. How can he win a GT like that?

 

[Salvarani]

Go Giro with a better team. Prove it was not a fluke. Get a second win.

Going to Tour and aiming to win is asking for too much. I can see fans & sponsors making this decision much harder though. I don’t think it is a good idea to go there this year.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

(And frankly, riders that have incidents like that tend to have them .. *again and again*. Aru will always fade, Valverde will never deal with the altitude.)

Yes, Valverde will always struggle with altitude, Aru will always fade, Contador will always attack, Froome will always look at his power meter, Nibali will always be lucky and Dumoulin will always poop. It's the truth. I heard he usually has to poop once a day, sometimes more. How can he win a GT like that?

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=30586

This might provide a partial solution for Tom

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin's DS about the route

"We'd hoped for more ITT mileage, but it's an allround parcours and the cobbles stage and the TTT suit us too. It is a lot of climbing though. There's possibities, but winning is gonna be hard. We'll have to analyse if further, and do the same thing with the Giro route".

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

(And frankly, riders that have incidents like that tend to have them .. *again and again*. Aru will always fade, Valverde will never deal with the altitude.)

Yes, Valverde will always struggle with altitude, Aru will always fade, Contador will always attack, Froome will always look at his power meter, Nibali will always be lucky and Dumoulin will always poop. It's the truth. I heard he usually has to poop once a day, sometimes more. How can he win a GT like that?

Post of the day .

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

Dumoulin's DS about the route

"We'd hoped for more ITT mileage, but it's an allround parcours and the cobbles stage and the TTT suit us too. It is a lot of climbing though. There's possibities, but winning is gonna be hard. We'll have to analyse if further, and do the same thing with the Giro route".

Please go to Giro. Thats his best shot and a wise move if it has more ITT.

 

[yaco]

A good route for Dumoulin - No reason to miss the TDF.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

A good route for Dumoulin - No reason to miss the TDF.

This.

The "wait until '19" argument doesn't hold water. Then what: wait for '20? Come on Tom, don't pull a Rominger on us.

 

[kiszol]

Re:

A good route for Dumoulin - No reason to miss the TDF.

I agree.
think he will go to the Tour. It's the next big step for him. Besides the route is balanced. A bit from everything. Not too many long steep mtfs and Tom handles longish 6-7% steady climbs pretty well. I think even AdH should suit him somewhat. Portet is another story ofc. In the TT and TTT Tom will gain minutes on everyone bar Froome, and even ~1 min on Froome. I'm not sure that Chris will be able to gain that much on a strong Dumoulin in the mountains. The same goes for Porte and Quintana with the 3-4 min deficit they will have. Besides, Doom is good on cobbles. Dumoulin should try to win this, not a bad route for him.

 

[yaco]

Dare i say it, but this is a fantastic route for Porte if he can stay safe in the first week and get over the cobbles.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Dare i say it, but this is a fantastic route for Porte if he can stay safe in the first week and get over the cobbles.

lol. he won't be able to follow dumoulin or nibali on the cobbles. I think dumoulin will pull a cancellara

 

[Salvarani]

The next big step would be to prove if he can do it again imo... not race against everybody at the tour.

Unless he feels really confident about that the tour will suit him of course. Best case scenario. He stays out of crashes. Sunweb does a great TTT. He does a decent cobbles stage and gain time on rivals. He dont lose time in mountains. Finish off with a great ITT.

I just dont think it willl go to plan like that though.

 

[SafeBet]

Gazzetta is reporting Tom will ride the Giro. What do you guys think? I'm very skeptical.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Gazzetta is reporting Tom will ride the Giro. What do you guys think? I'm very skeptical.

I think his best chance is at the Tour personally. But the Giro is a decent route for Tom too

 

[Singer01]

Re: Re:

Gazzetta is reporting Tom will ride the Giro. What do you guys think? I'm very skeptical.

I think his best chance is at the Tour personally. But the Giro is a decent route for Tom too

I think Froome will be over the moon about this, i wouldn't want to race TD with a Giro in my legs, but i'll take my chances on Quintana who hasn't exactly pushed on the last few years, and he already knows he can beat Nibs with another GT in his legs.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Gazzetta is reporting Tom will ride the Giro. What do you guys think? I'm very skeptical.

I think his best chance is at the Tour personally. But the Giro is a decent route for Tom too

I think Froome will be over the moon about this, i wouldn't want to race TD with a Giro in my legs, but i'll take my chances on Quintana who hasn't exactly pushed on the last few years, and he already knows he can beat Nibs with another GT in his legs.

this... I still think quintana will be better than froome in the tour but froome only have a chance of winning the tour if dumoulin doesn't ride the tour

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He's taking the poo problem seriously though
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/dumoulin-working-to-resolve-digestive-problems-of-the-giro-ditalia/

Anyway, nice from Gazetta, but I think he will ride the tour and skip the Giro

 

[silvergrenade]

His team and he would be stupid to do the Giro. Go to the tour Tom. Come prepared. Winter is coming aka Froome is coming. :razz: :lol:

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

His team and he would be stupid to do the Giro. Go to the tour Tom. Come prepared. Winter is coming aka Froome is coming. :razz: :lol:

I agree he should target le tour. Maybe he is thinking Giro-Vuelta-Worlds.

 

[Salvarani]

I been adamant about thinking Giro again would be great. I dont know now though. At the end of the day he just gonna need good legs whatever he chooses.

Also wouldnt be surprised if Froome suddenly changes his mind come spring and doesnt do the Giro or an "injury" happens right before.

 

[Red Rick]

I think Dumoulin riding the Giro would be very good for the Giro and perhaps for the Tour as well. But makes literally 0 sense for Dumoulin.

There is 0 doubt he'll go for the Tour, and the only reason they're not announcing it yet is because he wants to enjoy the off season in relative peace.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

This pretty much.

Though it would be a cool thing, Dumoulin vs Froome (and Landa, Aru and all) in the Giro meaning the Tour gets devaluated even more. But it's not gonna happen

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

This pretty much.

Though it would be a cool thing, Dumoulin vs Froome (and Landa, Aru and all) in the Giro meaning the Tour gets devaluated even more. But it's not gonna happen

How would it be devalued?