Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[BullsFan22]

Dumoulin can certainly trouble Froome or any other TDF contender for that matter, but his weakness is weaker than Froome's weakness. Froome isn't a 'mountain goat' per se, but he generally climbs better than Dumoulin, sometimes much better, while in the TT he can stay relatively close to Dumoulin.

I still think Froome would be a favorite for the TDF, but Dumoulin could pull off something special as he did at the Giro this year. Maybe I am underestimating Tom's climbing, and it could obviously become better come Summer 2018...

 

[glassmoon]

Still think it eventually comes down to whether TD is doing Giro-TDF double or just exclusively focusing on Tour.
(also to how seriously is Froome taking the Giro)

 

[movingtarget]

Dumoulin can certainly trouble Froome or any other TDF contender for that matter, but his weakness is weaker than Froome's weakness. Froome isn't a 'mountain goat' per se, but he generally climbs better than Dumoulin, sometimes much better, while in the TT he can stay relatively close to Dumoulin.

I still think Froome would be a favorite for the TDF, but Dumoulin could pull off something special as he did at the Giro this year. Maybe I am underestimating Tom's climbing, and it could obviously become better come Summer 2018...

I think Froome's biggest strength at the moment is his team and his inability to make errors unlike others plus he always seems to come into races fully prepared. The days of blowing people off his wheel in the mountains seem to be over but it hasn't stopped him winning because over three weeks he is still the best at managing his performance and last season managed to do it twice in a GT. In other words his climbing has brought him back to the field a little but it hasn't stopped him winning. Dumoulin can have a bad day in the mountains but the Giro showed he is a much improved rider even with a relatively weak team. He knows how to hang on better in the mountains now without going into the red and his TT speaks for itself and is a huge advantage over the smaller climbers who can put time into him in the mountains but not enough to matter at least as far as the Giro was concerned. The Giro win will be a huge confidence booster for Dumoulin.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Still think it eventually comes down to whether TD is doing Giro-TDF double or just exclusively focusing on Tour.
(also to how seriously is Froome taking the Giro)

There can't be any doubt Froome is going for the win in the Giro, anything else would be far beyond stupid. And going by double attempts this century, he can't possibly be the favorite for the Tour.

 

[Parker]

Dumoulin is no longer a surprise package. He started the Giro at odds of 12/1. Behind Kruijswijk and level with Thomas, Landa and Pinot. Quintana and Nibali underestimated him and looked at each other for two weeks. In the end the 70 seconds on stage 19 was too little too late.

No-one will make that mistake again and will put him under pressure early - particularly Froome who specialises in that sort of thing. Of course Dumoulin can still improve and probably will.

 

[hazaran]

Re: Re:

Still think it eventually comes down to whether TD is doing Giro-TDF double or just exclusively focusing on Tour.
(also to how seriously is Froome taking the Giro)

There can't be any doubt Froome is going for the win in the Giro, anything else would be far beyond stupid. And going by double attempts this century, he can't possibly be the favorite for the Tour.

Because guys who can't win the Tour in the previous years didn't get good odds in a Giro Tour double? Shocker!

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Still think it eventually comes down to whether TD is doing Giro-TDF double or just exclusively focusing on Tour.
(also to how seriously is Froome taking the Giro)

There can't be any doubt Froome is going for the win in the Giro, anything else would be far beyond stupid. And going by double attempts this century, he can't possibly be the favorite for the Tour.

Obviously he is doing the Giro because he has never won it but I'm still surprised that a record equalling Tour wasn't his first priority. I don't think the extra weeks rest was a deciding factor, I think it was more the route and to win a Giro which he may not attempt again or in the same form if he can repeat his form of last year. With the emergence of other riders now, if Quintana can't win the Tour next year or maybe 2019, he will put a lot of pressure on himself to ever win it. I don't think his age is a big factor because he was riding better between 2013 and 2015. You only get so many chances before the next generation starts challenging. Even when Froome disappears and retires it won't get much easier for Quintana unless he can find his old climbing form and get an unusually mountainous route. It looks on paper to be a really interesting Tour next year especially with Dumoulin expected to take part. Nibali is also running out of time to win another Tour. And Martin and Porte, Bardet and Uran also have something to prove so it should be a great battle for the podium.

 

[yaco]

Dumoulin can certainly trouble Froome or any other TDF contender for that matter, but his weakness is weaker than Froome's weakness. Froome isn't a 'mountain goat' per se, but he generally climbs better than Dumoulin, sometimes much better, while in the TT he can stay relatively close to Dumoulin.

I still think Froome would be a favorite for the TDF, but Dumoulin could pull off something special as he did at the Giro this year. Maybe I am underestimating Tom's climbing, and it could obviously become better come Summer 2018...

I think Froome's biggest strength at the moment is his team and his inability to make errors unlike others plus he always seems to come into races fully prepared. The days of blowing people off his wheel in the mountains seem to be over but it hasn't stopped him winning because over three weeks he is still the best at managing his performance and last season managed to do it twice in a GT. In other words his climbing has brought him back to the field a little but it hasn't stopped him winning. Dumoulin can have a bad day in the mountains but the Giro showed he is a much improved rider even with a relatively weak team. He knows how to hang on better in the mountains now without going into the red and his TT speaks for itself and is a huge advantage over the smaller climbers who can put time into him in the mountains but not enough to matter at least as far as the Giro was concerned. The Giro win will be a huge confidence booster for Dumoulin.

Froome makes mistakes - Crashed twice on the downhill in around stage 17 of the 2017 Vuelta and he had the crash on the descent of stage 19 in the 2016 TDF - He's had luck on his side

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Dumoulin is no longer a surprise package. He started the Giro at odds of 12/1. Behind Kruijswijk and level with Thomas, Landa and Pinot. Quintana and Nibali underestimated him and looked at each other for two weeks. In the end the 70 seconds on stage 19 was too little too late.

No-one will make that mistake again and will put him under pressure early - particularly Froome who specialises in that sort of thing. Of course Dumoulin can still improve and probably will.

No that is ***. The first real mt stage test was Blockhaus and Dumoulin outperformed Nibali there and stayed to Quintana. No chance they overlooked Dumoulin after that and there was no way to take any time before (only Etna)

 

[Jelantik]

Re:

he is clearly the main favourite to win le tour now, I'm sure he won't ride il giro. dumoulin is even more complete than froome (froome is "only" slightly better in the mountains), I really think he will destroy everyone in the cobbled stage and in the time trial

Hmm, skeptical. Froome was 3rd in the world championship with 2 GT legs back to back. Dumoulin was fresh and prepared specifically for the world. He got 2/3 months to rest his GT leg still, Froome got 3rd. Froome said that Dumoulin managed his effort in the mountain, the same as him. Both are a rider who plays power meter the best. Managing their effort on the climb. But I still see Froome is better on the climb than Dumoulin. I don't believe that Dumoulin is the sole favorite to win the Tour. Porte isn't that bad with ITT, and he was showing a flash of brilliance throughout this year and Dauphine. If he can string a good 3 weeks w/o bad luck, he will be Froome's contender. Not sure about Quintana, fresh or not, he seems to bite w/o teeth. Like a little bulldog who doesn't bite, just barking. His development seems to stall or he has reached his ceiling?. Maybe taking too many GT in the row, who knows.

 

[movingtarget]

Dumoulin can certainly trouble Froome or any other TDF contender for that matter, but his weakness is weaker than Froome's weakness. Froome isn't a 'mountain goat' per se, but he generally climbs better than Dumoulin, sometimes much better, while in the TT he can stay relatively close to Dumoulin.

I still think Froome would be a favorite for the TDF, but Dumoulin could pull off something special as he did at the Giro this year. Maybe I am underestimating Tom's climbing, and it could obviously become better come Summer 2018...

I think Froome's biggest strength at the moment is his team and his inability to make errors unlike others plus he always seems to come into races fully prepared. The days of blowing people off his wheel in the mountains seem to be over but it hasn't stopped him winning because over three weeks he is still the best at managing his performance and last season managed to do it twice in a GT. In other words his climbing has brought him back to the field a little but it hasn't stopped him winning. Dumoulin can have a bad day in the mountains but the Giro showed he is a much improved rider even with a relatively weak team. He knows how to hang on better in the mountains now without going into the red and his TT speaks for itself and is a huge advantage over the smaller climbers who can put time into him in the mountains but not enough to matter at least as far as the Giro was concerned. The Giro win will be a huge confidence booster for Dumoulin.

Froome makes mistakes - Crashed twice on the downhill in around stage 17 of the 2017 Vuelta and he had the crash on the descent of stage 19 in the 2016 TDF - He's had luck on his side

By mistakes I mean in preparation and tactics more than falls which happen to everyone usually although maybe not to the degree that Gesink, Porte and others have had bad luck. I agree that he did have good luck in 2017 where a lot of his rivals didn't but so did Nibali in 2014 and 2016 and Evans in 2011 mainly due with what happened to others but as Contador discovered no one is immune. Even though Froome crashed on descents his descending is much better now than it was five years ago. Porte and Zakarin and a few others not so good. The thing about Froome is that he looks so smooth on the TT bike but ungainly on the road bike while most others are the opposite. Dumoulin looks good on both.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Still think it eventually comes down to whether TD is doing Giro-TDF double or just exclusively focusing on Tour.
(also to how seriously is Froome taking the Giro)

There can't be any doubt Froome is going for the win in the Giro, anything else would be far beyond stupid. And going by double attempts this century, he can't possibly be the favorite for the Tour.

Because guys who can't win the Tour in the previous years didn't get good odds in a Giro Tour double? Shocker!

Yeah, it's true that it's not a surprise that Quintana didn't win the tour but he didn't only not win, he was humiliated in every single mountain stage to an extend where he couldn't even follow a Contador attack 100k away from the finish. His shape wasn't just not good enough to win the tour, it was abysmal. And that happened after one year earlier he won the vuelta, which was his 2nd gt in a row just like the vuelta for Foome this year. I'm almost 100% sure Froome will be better than Quintana in this tour but that really doesn't make him the favorite for the win.

Moreover there have been many other double attempts which failed as well. Contador looked like the strongest gc rider in 2014 but didn't have a chance in the tour 2015. When he tried the double in 2011 he came to the tour after winning 6 gt's in a row and he seemed to be in his absolute prime. But at the tour he was nowhere near the win. It's not just that no double attempt in this century has been successful, not in one of them was a rider even close to winning the tour after the giro.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Still think it eventually comes down to whether TD is doing Giro-TDF double or just exclusively focusing on Tour.
(also to how seriously is Froome taking the Giro)

There can't be any doubt Froome is going for the win in the Giro, anything else would be far beyond stupid. And going by double attempts this century, he can't possibly be the favorite for the Tour.

Because guys who can't win the Tour in the previous years didn't get good odds in a Giro Tour double? Shocker!

Yeah, it's true that it's not a surprise that Quintana didn't win the tour but he didn't only not win, he was humiliated in every single mountain stage to an extend where he couldn't even follow a Contador attack 100k away from the finish. His shape wasn't just not good enough to win the tour, it was abysmal. And that happened after one year earlier he won the vuelta, which was his 2nd gt in a row just like the vuelta for Foome this year. I'm almost 100% sure Froome will be better than Quintana in this tour but that really doesn't make him the favorite for the win.

Moreover there have been many other double attempts which failed as well. Contador looked like the strongest gc rider in 2014 but didn't have a chance in the tour 2015. When he tried the double in 2011 he came to the tour after winning 6 gt's in a row and he seemed to be in his absolute prime. But at the tour he was nowhere near the win. It's not just that no double attempt in this century has been successful, not in one of them was a rider even close to winning the tour after the giro.

2011 is a big what if tho cause of routes, teams, crashes and getting *** over by crashes on the first stage

 

[Leinster]

Multiple crashes in 2015 too, and a team half set up to win the green jersey.

And Contador in 2015 was going for holding all 3 at once

 

[Netserk]

The difference is that he never looked good during the Tour in '15. In '11 he was super on the Mûr, Manse and the AdH-stage. He also did well in the ITT, especially given how much deeper he went the day before than Evans.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

The difference is that he never looked good during the Tour in '15. In '11 he was super on the Mûr, Manse and the AdH-stage. He also did well in the ITT, especially given how much deeper he went the day before than Evans.

He crashed on stage 1 and 2 and never recovered. He might have had the legs, but we never got to see.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Multiple crashes in 2015 too, and a team half set up to win the green jersey.

And Contador in 2015 was going for holding all 3 at once

Just like froome next year. Actually froome even goes for 4 in a row.

About contador's 2011 crashes, I'm still not sure whether the crashes really had such a big impact on his performance. As someone has already mentioned he had some really good days which I think are unlikely to have if you are injured. That sounds more like he had bad days which happen when you are tired due to a 2nd gt in a row.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Multiple crashes in 2015 too, and a team half set up to win the green jersey.

And Contador in 2015 was going for holding all 3 at once

Just like froome next year. Actually froome even goes for 4 in a row.

About contador's 2011 crashes, I'm still not sure whether the crashes really had such a big impact on his performance. As someone has already mentioned he had some really good days which I think are unlikely to have if you are injured. That sounds more like he had bad days which happen when you are tired due to a 2nd gt in a row.

My understanding is that while his crashes didn't (particularly) injure him, they did drain him and in large part (together with restday magic™) explain why he was worse in the Pyrenees than he was overall in the third week.

The difference is that he never looked good during the Tour in '15. In '11 he was super on the Mûr, Manse and the AdH-stage. He also did well in the ITT, especially given how much deeper he went the day before than Evans.

He crashed on stage 1 and 2 and never recovered. He might have had the legs, but we never got to see.

Am I mistaken or are you thinking about 2016 instead of 2015?

 

[silvergrenade]

Contador was so *** in the 2015 tour that his fans have started believing he crashed multiple times to save some embarrassment. Simply wow! :lol: :lol:

 

[gregrowlerson]

Contador didn't crash early in 2015 (at least nothing significant) and never had the legs post Giro. But in the 2011 Tour we don't know, as he did crash on one of the first couple of stages and lost minutes, plus possibly some physical condition.

I really don't think that Froome can do the Giro-Tour double, particularly not at 33 years of age. If he does, then all credit to him. If he doesn't, and finishers 4th or 5th in the Tour, then all credit to him too (I'm a Contador fan). Winning the Vuelta after winning the Tour is incredible, but this is still a different beast. Nobody targets the Vuelta as their season goal. Next year he has a fresh Quintana and possibly Dumoulin to contend with, as well as Porte. Even beating Nibali next year will be tougher, as he is targeting the Tour already (or should be), whereas he was only targeting the Vuelta for a few months (after the Giro).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'm confused, is this the Dumoulin or the Contador topic

 

[Angliru]

Re:

I'm confused, is this the Dumoulin or the Contador topic

He may have retired but he is omnipresent. (That emoticon is for you silvergrenade!)

 

[Barbapapa]

https://twitter.com/raykerckhoffs/status/943275167312240641

Tom to ride the Giro 2018?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

According to De Telegraaf it seems Tom will go for a second Giro win. So no TDF

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

According to De Telegraaf it seems Tom will go for a second Giro win. So no TDF

Smart. If Froome doesn't ride Giro (99%), TomD will have no competitors in Pinot, Aru, Zakarin, Kruijswijk or Lopez.