Tony Martin and GC

[El Pistolero]

While I agree that he probably can't just take off on top GC contenders on HC climbs and probably can't aim higher than about 5th-10th, I think people might be selling him a bit short. I mean, at 23 he hung in hard, held off the break, and just missed re-catching Garate on the Ventoux. That doesn't bode too poorly for his climbing prospects, in my opinion.

If the Tour had 100km+ of TT and not a lot of hard mountain stages perhaps, but nowadays? Nah.

He'll get dropped hard on every MTF in the Tour.

 

[Cobblestoned]

No chance of the Giro or Vuelta, but given the parcours of a "soft" gradient/ heavy ITT Tour, anything is possible.
It won't be pretty, though.

Not even Vuelta ? Wow.
Not pretty, thats for sure. If it ever happens it will be very very ugly and soft.
A softugly Panzerwagen that perhaps can do good at that easy and terrible one there in France.
Forgot name. Tour seems to be on your blacklist too, if I follow some of your posts. That list that you work of daily with huge enthusiasm for cycling.

Ok, best thing for me and everyone will be:
Ignore. You finally made it. You are now officially boring me too much and are as predictable as rain in rainforest.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I think you forgot some 'cero's' there.

It matters not, it was funny ^^

I'm not so sure where we've got to rate Tony for the future, true this wasn't a hard Paris-Nice and he's indeed to big to ever become a mountain goat, but he's shown his ability to climb.
Both on the Ventoux and in this PN. I'd like to see how he does in the Tour first before drawing a conclusion, but I believe he'll never make it as a top GC contender for GT's

 

[Faserr]

Second MTF in Tour 2009: (at the first one in Andorra he finished with the top climbers)

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 5:03:58
2 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:43
3 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:01:03
4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:06
5 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream
6 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo TestTeam
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 0:01:26
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:01:29
9 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:01:35
10 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia - HTC 0:01:55
11 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 0:02:06
12 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia - HTC 0:02:13
13 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha
14 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Team Columbia - HTC 0:02:23
15 Christophe Le Mevel (Fra) Française des Jeux 0:02:32
16 Igor Anton Hernandez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0:02:33
17 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Silence - Lotto
18 Peter Velits (Svk) Team Milram 0:02:36


After that he had three really bad days. He even finished only 11th at the time trial. So something was wrong with him.
Nevertheless he came back with a strong performance at the Ventoux, finishing second and climbing really fast compared to the top finishers of the field. I think he would have been in top top 15 or top 10 if he started the climb from the main bunch with his acent time.
So I think you shouldn't count him totally out. He only missed the top 10 finish because of two bad days, in his first tour being 23 years old. Looking closley at this performance I can see the potential for a top 10 finish.
Cancellare wasn't even near this climbing skills at such steep mountains in his whole career.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But that was also a Tour that was mostly soft-pedalled and only featured one selective non-TT stage in the first two weeks; Martin started off well though; but the Arcalis climb isn't very steep or selective and the Verbier climb isn't very long. The 2009 parcours, if done again, is the kind of parcours he could definitely do well at, but the 2011 parcours features too much climbing and not enough time trialling for him to do it.

 

[Faserr]

I'm not sure if he can do well, I would't put my money on him. But after reading the comments hear, I think he is underrated. They are even comparing him to Cancellara, but you can't compare this two riders.
I still believe he has the potential for the top 10 in the next years. But he definately should try to win races like PN, LBL and the WC.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Really, I've rarely seen anyone behaving as mature as you do. I have so much respect for you it's incredible...

On topic:
Winning Paris - Nice is something different then winning an GT. Specially the P-N we had last week which wasn't very hard regarding the climbs and was suited for a TT man. A tailormade course for Tony.
He might just hang on(top20) the first, maybe second stage as well on the long HC climbs in the TdF, but eventually he will break bigtime and lose over 10 minutes.
He's too big for the real mountains.

I think bla bla bla bla, was not what I wrote and i was talking to master hitch.
You seem to be a funny guy. At least I hope so. Dutch people always funny when I meet them.

On topic:
You are telling nothing new to me there. Just for your information.
Tailormade, yes. I saw many predictions. Some where even correct.

Perhaps some people are/were way too pessimistic with Tony. Or pessimistic in general. You may be right with your prediction. No doubt.
But things always change in cycling. Every season cards are mixed again and riders improve or good riders just have a bad season.

I doubt he can win now, too. Doesn't mean I am pessimistic. Even 5th, 6th or something would be a great achievement this year. Especially in this years edition. I don't need all that winning or hope for next Ullrich.

These guys don't fall from sky and I would even be happy with Tony if he will never win a GT.

 

[Cobblestoned]

While I agree that he probably can't just take off on top GC contenders on HC climbs and probably can't aim higher than about 5th-10th, I think people might be selling him a bit short. I mean, at 23 he hung in hard, held off the break, and just missed re-catching Garate on the Ventoux. That doesn't bode too poorly for his climbing prospects, in my opinion.

That makes sense and 5th would be great.
For sure he has to stop completly to pull for Cavendish.
Ok, these were in best case just few km per stage.
But if you sum that up, it has some impact.

Of course he is still learning and earning status for beeing fully protected.
He doesn't mind beeing in that train, but it has to stop. At least as long as his race is open.

 

[Eric8-A]

I don't see it. I think he's more suited to one week stage races. I havn't seen anything that shows me he's a GT contender. During Paris-Nice, it seemed like none of the contenders tried to attack him to steal time away from him, so I really don't know how he can respond to attacks on a climb. The only thing I've seen from him that comes close to that is when he was in the break on the Mt. Vontoux stage in the '09 TdF, and that still didn't tell me he was capable of contending in GC in a three week long stage race.

Besides, Paris-Nice was decided by a time-trial.

 

[El Pistolero]

Does Martin have any classics ambitions what so ever? Seems a better focus than GTs. Although Valverde doesn't agree with me there, but he's an idiot (just kidding, although he does think that)

 

[michaeld]

As things stand with GCs becoming strictly about going up mountains and ignoring the merits of those who can chrono or descend, he's got no chance.

If parcours design reverts during his career, he'll be back in with a sniff.

Bring back the 55km ITT! ...two of them!

(edit: Looking at the 1981 Tour: Prologue, 3 ITTs, 2 TTTs)

 

[royalpig180]

You'd think he'd make a great domestique for some one like Velits or Hesjdal in a GC but not for himself. Top 20 position maybe.

Last I checked, Martin rides for HTC and Hesjedal still rides for Garmin... doubt we'll see him pulling for a rival team's contender

 

[luckyboy]

Can see him getting a GT top 15. Hard pushed to go better than that. These kinda week-long stage races with a TT are where he's at.

I see him more as a new kind of Menchov if he stays consistent.

I don't know. Unless the new kind of Menchov is worse at climbing.

(edit: Looking at the 1981 Tour: Prologue, 3 ITTs, 2 TTTs)

Yikes, a 77km TTT

 

[Kwibus]

I think bla bla bla bla, was not what I wrote and i was talking to master hitch.
You seem to be a funny guy. At least I hope so. Dutch people always funny when I meet them.

On topic:
You are telling nothing new to me there. Just for your information.
Tailormade, yes. I saw many predictions. Some where even correct.

Perhaps some people are/were way too pessimistic with Tony. Or pessimistic in general. You may be right with your prediction. No doubt.
But things always change in cycling. Every season cards are mixed again and riders improve or good riders just have a bad season.

I doubt he can win now, too. Doesn't mean I am pessimistic. Even 5th, 6th or something would be a great achievement this year. Especially in this years edition. I don't need all that winning or hope for next Ullrich.

These guys don't fall from sky and I would even be happy with Tony if he will never win a GT.

Tailormade..., allthough I must admit I wasn't 100% sure he would be able to drag himself over the hills. He showed it wasn't much of a problem for him though. Tony is incredibly strong, but his weight is his enemy. If he manages to ride top20 in all the mountainstages of the TdF then he will surprise me, but like I said I expect him to crack big time atleast once.

If he rides a top10 he should be very very happy indeed, but I doubt it.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Can't see Martin finishing top 10 this year with the parcours, but a top 20 chance.

And what about with the '09 parcours? Not much better. Sure, there was less hard climbing in that Tour, but it's not like there was a lot of ITT (56kms).

He would lose time on stage 15 (as he did anyway), plus time on the Venteoux normally as he wouldn't be allowed in a break if he was high in GC. And stage 17? He'd probably lose 5 minutes even on his current form.

But given his youth, I can see some GC potential for Tony. He can climb reasonably well, as shown by his effort on Verbier. And in this Paris-Nice he hung on in stage 5 when the last climb was 7.6 kms at 8.3%. That's a serious climb. Not that long, but there's nothing steeper than that at the TDF generally.

So in 2012, with another years improvement, and 2 long ITT's, Martin could be a top 5 finisher. He would have to develop consistency in the mountains though, and concede 2-3 minutes on each stage, instead of trying to go with the climbers and losing 10 minutes.

 

[The Hitch]

So in 2012, with another years improvement, and 2 long ITT's, Martin could be a top 5 finisher. He would have to develop consistency in the mountains though, and concede 2-3 minutes on each stage, instead of trying to go with the climbers and losing 10 minutes.

The days of losing 2 or 3 minutes on each stage and finishing top 5 are long gone. Cuddles lost about that much time in the 2009 ttt and he was out of it. Hell nicky roche finished about a minute back on Mosquara on Bola.

How much time do you expect him to get back in the 1 or 2 itts that they will have? 6 minutes. I dont see it.

 

[Jan the Man]

I think Martin may be able to top 10 in the Tour but not this year, not with this route.

Martin needs a parcours of 2006 (with two long TTs) or 2009 (relatively easy mountain stages). He needs some more experience of challenging in GTs as well.

I suspect that he will have at least one 'jour sans' this Tour.

 

[kurtinsc]

How much room does Tony have to lose some weight but maintain his ITT power?

Wiggins lost weight but hasn't seemed to lose much off his time trial. If anything, I'd say his road ITT has improved since the weight loss (though other factors may have played a bigger role).

Can Martin drop 3-4kg and lose very little off his ITT? If so, I don't see why he couldn't be the top "TT-focused" GC guy in the field. There's room for GC guys like that. You don't want the field to be full of them, but having that guy who can crush everyone else in the ITT's in the field trying to hang in the mountains sparks attacks from others in the field who need cushion.

 

[El Pistolero]

How much room does Tony have to lose some weight but maintain his ITT power?

Wiggins lost weight but hasn't seemed to lose much off his time trial. If anything, I'd say his road ITT has improved since the weight loss (though other factors may have played a bigger role).

Can Martin drop 3-4kg and lose very little off his ITT? If so, I don't see why he couldn't be the top "TT-focused" GC guy in the field. There's room for GC guys like that. You don't want the field to be full of them, but having that guy who can crush everyone else in the ITT's in the field trying to hang in the mountains sparks attacks from others in the field who need cushion.

Contador was a time trial specialist before he focused more on climbing. Although that climbing talent was also always there obviously. He won a lot of mountain prices in the espoirs(he was even nicknamed Marco Pantani).

 

[kurtinsc]

Contador was a time trial specialist before he focused more on climbing. Although that climbing talent was also always there obviously. He won a lot of mountain prices in the espoirs(he was even nicknamed Marco Pantani).

Contador focused on TT's when he was younger, but I don't know if I'd call him a specialist per se. As you pointed out, his climbing ability was always evident.

I view that as very different from guys like Wiggins or Martin. They are more clearly pure TT guys that developed climbing ability. Maybe it's a size thing... according to what I see, Martin is 75kg, Wiggins is 71kg, Spartacus is 80kg, and I think Ullrich raced around 72kg.

Contador is 62kg. Simply a different type of transformation for a lighter TT guy turning into a GC threat then a heavier one.

If Martin can maintain his ITT ability and drop to 71-72kg... maybe he can contend for GT top 5's.

 

[Jan the Man]

Ullrich raced around 72kg.

Challenge Mallorca 1998 72kg

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, dude looked like he swallowed a weather balloon when he returned from celebrating his TdF win.

 

[the asian]

He's a true contender for short stage races as he proved in the last years and being just 26 allows him to have still time to improve his climbing cause as for now he's still kind of massive rider to match up with skinner guys.

Agree. He also did well at the tour couple of years back. So he could get a top ten finish if the course suits him.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Haha, the moment when Cancellara wins the Tour is the moment when a comet strikes the Earth and kills us all.

The guy can't even handle a little incline on a TT course, he's not gonna fly up on the Alpe-d'Huez. He IS a fighter though, I'll give him that.

If he wants to win a Grand Tour, he has to significantly lean down and drop all that weights on those quads. It's a fine balance to be an all-rounder. That's why there are not that many of them.

 

[Jan the Man]