Tony Martin and GC

[Parrulo]

this is the trick super martin will use to win a GT

either that or this

sounds like a plausible perpetual engine

 

[The Hitch]

There isn't any hating on Tony Martin. He could well turn into a decent top 10 GT rider &#224]

There might not be any hate on Martin but with that post, the hate towards Leipheimer is pretty clear.

I know its really popular to hate on Leipheimer on here but no, he was not merely a Wiggins or a Kirchen.

The majority of his top 7 10s were in the top 5, and he has 2 Vuelta and 1 Tour podium.

Regardless of how he may or may not have wronged people on this forum (reading posts about him, thats what it seems like), that is the palmares of a GT Contender and NOT a "decent top 10 rider".

Tony Martin is highly unlikely to be anywhere near as high up in gts as Levi regularly was.

 

[Bavarianrider]

But the problem of inertia still applies - hence why you find the heavier riders tend to be more tempo-grinders and not the Sella/Contador/Rujano dynamic change of pace climbers.

You will notice in mountain TTs that sometimes heavier riders do unexpectedly well because of the ability to retain a high power output, but in a race situation with changes of pace and attacks, this disadvantages them, as the ability to change pace very quickly is key to finding separation; a heavier rider would need to outlast people by setting a tempo they cannot follow, like Ivan Basso (not that he's a heavy rider, just an example of the type of climber you would need). Note how Cancellara was comfortably able to ride up to Serfaus and Crans Montana in 2009, or how riders like Wiggins were able to stay with the big guns as long as they rode tempo, but when the attacks came in, they fell away.

No doubt! All i want to say is that it's not impossible for heavier riders to battle it out with the lighweights. Man often suggest that it's anatural law that you can't compete when you are heavier. All i want to say is, that by the laws of physics, this is not true. And once in a while there riders who can use their weight very well on the mountains.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The laws of physics only apply as you describe in a set of fixed, perfect circumstances, however. In reality, slopes are not constant, race situations vary, and weather comes into it as well. A heavier rider has the advantage of needing fewer w/kg, but has the disadvantage of having had to haul more weight around.

Hitch, I misleadingly compared the Leipheimer of '09-'10 with the Kirchen of '07-'08 and the Wiggins of '09. Therefore I more disrespected Leipheimer's peak performance than anything else. He has kind of become the by-word for the almost unwatchably dull TT-heavy GT rider, even before the oft-ridiculed Evans managed to break his shackles and convert many former detractors.

 

[Bavarianrider]

In the current edition of the german "Rennrad" Magazine there's an articel and interview with Tony. He says, that he wants to finish between 5-10 in this year's Tour de France and go for the podium next year.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Just in case you are interested, German Media starts jumping on the tony Bandwaggon.
In todays edition of the "Kicker" sports magzine there's an article discussing the chances of Tony to win this year's Tour de France

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

No guys, this is a fact. By physics and mathematics being heavier is actually an advatage as long as the gradient isn't 25%+.

Only because you make the bizzare assumption that it is equally easy for a rider of 60 kilos and 80 kilos to ride at 6watts/kilo. Thus you conveniently ignore the painfully obvious point that heavier riders need to produce more watts to go the same speed as a smaller rider on a climb. In the real world it is clear heavier riders can not produce sufficiently more watts, but you simply assume this away.

And you compound that error by ignoring the very significant increase in heat production for heavier riders, and the limit this places on their output.

And of course, heavier riders require greater absolute power, so they're even more restricted by their natural hemocrit levels.

 

[greenedge]

The laws of physics only apply as you describe in a set of fixed, perfect circumstances, however. In reality, slopes are not constant, race situations vary, and weather comes into it as well. A heavier rider has the advantage of needing fewer w/kg, but has the disadvantage of having had to haul more weight around.

Hitch, I misleadingly compared the Leipheimer of '09-'10 with the Kirchen of '07-'08 and the Wiggins of '09. Therefore I more disrespected Leipheimer's peak performance than anything else. He has kind of become the by-word for the almost unwatchably dull TT-heavy GT rider, even before the oft-ridiculed Evans managed to break his shackles and convert many former detractors.

Evans is small as. Also he's a good climber and is great on hills like Scarponi.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Evans is small as. Also he's a good climber and is great on hills like Scarponi.

Evans is also a diesel and a guy who will expect to make most of his GC gains in the time trial.

Much like Tony Martin - that's why he was mentioned.

But in reality, Evans is incredibly light for his TT power, several kg lighter than Tony Martin, which is a natural advantage (which is where my disagreement with Bavarianrider comes in) because he has less inertia (thus easier to respond to attacks or make them himself).

In a mountain time trial, the power guys can often compete, due to their ability to maintain constant tempo - see Larsson and Voigt getting up in the top 10 on Kronplatz. But most climbs are not time trials, and they are raced, and your ability to make, and respond to, changes in tempo (something which the lighter riders have an advantage in), are key to your making successful moves.

The only reason I even mentioned Evans was to point out that much as though Evans was ridiculed before his coming-out-of-his-shell in 2009, Leipheimer was a similar TT-centric rider who was infinitely more dull (and only marginally less talented).

 

[movingtarget]

Actually for their height, riders like Porte and Evans are not light. You saw Evans standing next to Martin on the podium at the Tour of Romandie. Evans is 173 cm's. Martin towered over him and has even bigger legs than Evans for his height. People have been saying the same thing now for a few years about Cancellara and I can't see it happening for Martin unless he radically changes his body shape. Riders like Sean Kelly and Jalabert could sprint and climb well but neither of those riders had the build of a Cancellara or Martin. They were much leaner.

 

[movingtarget]

Actually for their height, riders like Porte and Evans are not light. You saw Evans standing next to Martin on the podium at the Tour of Romandie. Evans is 173 cm's. Martin towered over him and has even bigger legs than Evans for his height. People have been saying the same thing now for a few years about Cancellara and I can't see it happening for Martin unless he radically changes his body shape. Riders like Sean Kelly and Jalabert could sprint and climb well but neither of those riders had the build of a Cancellara or Martin. They were much leaner.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Tony has confirmed that he will do the Dauphine in order to prepare for the Tour.
I think it's a msart move. Ove rthe course of the last 10 years it seems that the Dauphine is better then doing the Tour de Suisse

 

[TeoSheva]

Tony has confirmed that he will do the Dauphine in order to prepare for the Tour.
I think it's a msart move. Ove rthe course of the last 10 years it seems that the Dauphine is better then doing the Tour de Suisse

does he will just joining to the Dauphine or he will race to win it?

 

[Bavarianrider]

does he will just joining to the Dauphine or he will race to win it?

Well it's a tune up for the Tour. So i guess he's not going for the win, but if he wants to show something in July obviously he has to be able to perform well at the Dauphine. Somewhere between in 3 and 7 in the overall ranking i 'd say.

 

[TeoSheva]

Well it's a tune up for the Tour. So i guess he's not going for the win, but if he wants to show something in July obviously he has to be able to perform well at the Dauphine. Somewhere between in 3 and 7 in the overall ranking i 'd say.

with two ITT for a total of 48km it's hard for me to stay in the middle: or he will win (or second behind Evans) or he will finish really far in GC if he does not push on the climbs.

 

[Bavarianrider]

with two ITT for a total of 48km it's hard for me to stay in the middle: or he will win (or second behind Evans) or he will finish really far in GC if he does not push on the climbs.

He'll have to push in the climbs. He has to proove to HTC that he's ther Tour captain for the overall classement.

 

[roundabout]

Compared to TdS the Dauphine is probably easier this year which hasn't been the case in 2009 and 2010.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Compared to TdS the Dauphine is probably easier this year which hasn't been the case in 2009 and 2010.

Yepp the Tour de Suisse is a lot harder this year then it has been the last few years.

 

[TeoSheva]

He'll have to push in the climbs. He has to proove to HTC that he's ther Tour captain for the overall classement.

in this case he can really win...

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I still expect to see him leading Cav under the Flamme Rouge.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I still expect to see him leading Cav under the Flamme Rouge.

He'll have to work for Cav too. But hopefully not as much as in the past. Just like Rogers didn't have to work that mucgh last year.
But when you look at the first week of this years Tour, there are probably only 3 sprints in the first 7 days anyway.

 

[Bavarianrider]

in this case he can really win...

Well i think winning would be a bit too good. In the last couple of years, the Dauhine winners have rather failed at the Tour, so i prefer a second place finish

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Winning Paris Nice & the Dauphine in the same year would be a far better season than P&N and scraping a top 10 in the Tour from my perspective.

 

[Midnightfright]

Winning Paris Nice & the Dauphine in the same year would be a far better season than P&N and scraping a top 10 in the Tour from my perspective.

Totally agree with this. I still cant imagine him getting a top 10 at the tour. I could see him having good days climbing but just feel he would have bad days in a 3 week tour. If your offered almost any rider Paris-Nice and Dauphine they would snap your hand off.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

He'll have to work for Cav too. But hopefully not as much as in the past. Just like Rogers didn't have to work that mucgh last year.
But when you look at the first week of this years Tour, there are probably only 3 sprints in the first 7 days anyway.

He'll have to work as hard as HTC need him to give Cav the best chance possible. If that's not at all, great, if that's working like a dog, then he'll need to do that. Which is absolutely right, given Cav comes with a guarantee of multiple stage wins and Tony is totally unproven at GC over 3 weeks, especially with as little TT action as this 3 weeks.