Tony Martin and GC

[Ildabaoth]

It is possible to change a lot of your capabilities. José Serpa is from my hometown and believe me, he was dropped by everybody in every mountain. Granted, he was initially a track specialist, not a climber. But he lost some weight and began focusing on climbing and here you have him now.

 

[Von Mises]

Contador focused on TT's when he was younger, but I don't know if I'd call him a specialist per se. As you pointed out, his climbing ability was always evident.

I view that as very different from guys like Wiggins or Martin. They are more clearly pure TT guys that developed climbing ability. Maybe it's a size thing... according to what I see, Martin is 75kg, Wiggins is 71kg, Spartacus is 80kg, and I think Ullrich raced around 72kg.

Contador is 62kg. Simply a different type of transformation for a lighter TT guy turning into a GC threat then a heavier one.

If Martin can maintain his ITT ability and drop to 71-72kg... maybe he can contend for GT top 5's.

Size thing is probably issue, but not the only one. Eddy Merckx was 75 kg and was able to climb pretty well, wasnt he

 

[taiwan]

It is possible to change a lot of your capabilities. José Serpa is from my hometown and believe me, he was dropped by everybody in every mountain. Granted, he was initially a track specialist, not a climber. But he lost some weight and began focusing on climbing and here you have him now.

That true? Cool.

 

[roundabout]

Fixed the link to the image

I've seen more pics from that time, but can't find them now.

 

[Cobblestoned]

I miss Jan Ullrich weigh****ch

lol
What is wrong with weigh****ch ? wait. google. ahhhh, ok.

 

[Night Rider]

Big talk by the German after his Paris Nice win. Looks like the focus on the season is a good GC result at the TDF.

I've seen nothing to suggest that he can keep up with the Fly Weights on the big HC climbs. Cancellara couldnt do it, what makes him think he can?

Others have probably said what I will say but I will add my 2 cents anyway.

I wouldn’t compare him to Cancellara other than the obvious he’s nearly as good at TT’s as what Fabian is. Fabian though would never in a million years be able to stick with Garate up Mont Ventoux like Martin did and in other races Martin has shown that he is a much better ‘big guy’ up the climbs than almost all others.

I think a more obvious comparison would be Wigans. In my opinion Martin is a way better TT’er and can be a better climber. I think they are roughly the same height and Wiggems is currently about 3kg lighter than Martin (Martin 75kg. Wigan 72kg). As Martin gets older his climbing will get better, If I was his trainer I wouldn’t be dropping him under 74kg that’s for sure.

The third thing is the GT parcours. In modern times we have seen the TT’s diminish away to almost nothing. It would only take one year of putting in an extra long TT and a medium length one and Martin will be a contender.

So to summarise, don’t hold your breath that he will be on the podium anytime soon but I certainly wouldn’t rule it out within the next few years.

 

[kurtinsc]

Size thing is probably issue, but not the only one. Eddy Merckx was 75 kg and was able to climb pretty well, wasnt he

Eddy Merckx was also a smoker while competing. It was a different time.

 

[The Hitch]

There is a Martin that can compete in Grand Tours. His first name just isnt Anthony.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I assume you mean Dan, but Tony's first name isn't Anthony either. It's Tony.

 

[Winterfold]

With slightly less naieve tactics this would be a Ventoux Tour stage winner! He climbs very well for a 'big TT guy'.

With the right course and less leadout duties he can definitely contend.

 

[Parrulo]

With slightly less naieve tactics this would be a Ventoux Tour stage winner! He climbs very well for a 'big TT guy'.

With the right course and less leadout duties he can definitely contend.

there is no way tony could outclimb garate. not on a climb like ventoux after 3 weeks. fact is the terrain up until the ventoux climb was better for martin as it was mostly flat. so garate was prolly more tired by the time they reached the climb and still outclimbed him

i honestly don't think martin is GT material. even if gt's get back to the 100k's of itt if they also have real montains, guys like contador and schleck and basso and nibles and michele and samu ofc ( just to avoid the tipical hitch post telling every1 to stop "forgetting" about them ) with a strong team could prolly drop him on the first big montains with a fast enough rhythm.

lets say the tourmalet- luz adiden stage this year. if martin was in yellow a guy like smyzd could easily put up a pass high enough to drop a on top form with a few less kilos martin by the time they reached the middle of the tourmalet. that would be enough to make any time he had won on the 100k's of hypothetical itt pointless. besides to contador he would have gained like a couple minutes if that much anyway.

 

[Winterfold]

When he came back to Garate after being dropped it showed the thing more important than weight, cadence, bike, whatever - guts. The guy showed he can suffer in a way we haven't seen much in the last few years - the strada bianchi stage on last years giro excepted.

If he'd caught his breath and wheelsucked rather than going straight to the front...

 

[Bavarianrider]

Tony Martin has everything which it takes to be a GT contender.
In time trials, excpect for Cancellara, Tony is a class of his own. In a 55km time trial, he puts 4 minutes on any of the climbing lightweights. Most will even loose 5min +. So once we'll see a Grand Tour with 2 55km rather flat TTs again, Tony is battling for the podium.
Tony has never been a pure TTer though. He has always been an allrounder and since his young days he has always been a decent climber.
Tony stands 1,86m and weighs ca 75 Kilogramms. Of course for today with all the flightweight GT riders, that's quiet heavy, but it certainly isn't too heavy to be competitive. Back in the days an athletic rider of Tonys size would have been considered just perfect for GT. Tony really reminds a lot of Ullrich, he's just a little bigger.
Of course Tony will never be a man for the steep Giro climbs, but in the Tour with it's 7-8% mountains, why shouldn't he be able to show something. He's already prooven that he can climb, his problem so far was regeneration in the first place.
I think it's very refreshing to see an athletic man like Tony between all those skinny GT kiddies we see nowerdays.
In this years tour he certainly has a shot at finishing in the top 10.
Once we'll see GT with two long TTs again, anything is possible for Tony!

 

[theyoungest]

Tony Martin has everything which it takes to be a GT contender.

Does he have the most important thing (recovery and consistency over three weeks?)

In time trials, excpect for Cancellara, Tony is a class of his own. In a 55km time trial, he puts 4 minutes on any of the climbing lightweights. Most will even loose 5min +. So once we'll see a Grand Tour with 2 55km rather flat TTs again, Tony is battling for the podium.

I wonder if he'll be able to put 4 minutes into Contador in any time trial in equal circumstances, let alone after three weeks of all out GC racing.

Tony has never been a pure TTer though. He has always been an allrounder and since his young days he has always been a decent climber.
Tony stands 1,86m and weighs ca 75 Kilogramms. Of course for today with all the flightweight GT riders, that's quiet heavy, but it certainly isn't too heavy to be competitive. Back in the days an athletic rider of Tonys size would have been considered just perfect for GT. Tony really reminds a lot of Ullrich, he's just a little bigger.

That's a full 8 kgs heavier than Andy Schleck. A very important disadvantage, certainly when fatigue starts settling in. "Back in the day" you did see this type of rider do well in GTs, but I think preparation methods were also different back then, if you catch my drift.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Does he have the most important thing (recovery and consistency over three weeks?)


I wonder if he'll be able to put 4 minutes into Contador in any time trial in equal circumstances, let alone after three weeks of all out GC racing.


That's a full 8 kgs heavier than Andy Schleck. A very important disadvantage, certainly when fatigue starts settling in. "Back in the day" you did see this type of rider do well in GTs, but I think preparation methods were also different back then, if you catch my drift.

Yeah maybe not 4 minutes to Contador, but look at Contador in 2010. His time trialing wasn't anything close to 2009. And Tony was 5:25 faster then Contador in a flat 52km TT. I know the wind changed, but it's not outrageous to asume that it would have been 3 min without the wind change.
Let's see how Andy does without Riis juice first. I highly doubt he'll be as good as last year.

 

[will10]

Yeah maybe not 4 minutes to Contador, but look at Contador in 2010. His time trialing wasn't anything close to 2009. And Tony was 5:25 faster then Contador in a flat 52km TT. I know the wind changed, but it's not outrageous to asume that it would have been 3 min without the wind change.
Let's see how Andy does without Riis juice first. I highly doubt he'll be as good as last year.

Yes it is.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I miss Jan Ullrich weigh****ch

lol
What is wrong with weigh****ch ? wait. google. ahhhh, ok.

what about Pieri's weight watch? Oh wait he didn't do weight watching

 

[Bavarianrider]

Yes it is.

No it is not!

 

[roundabout]

3 minutes is a lot of time even in flat 50+ k tt.

The last time Contador TT was that bad when he was aiming for a result and without a wind change was in the U23 World when he lost 2+ minutes to the winner in about 2/3 distance of a long Tour TT

 

[Bavarianrider]

3 minutes is a lot of time even in flat 50+ k tt.

The last time Contador TT was that bad when he was aiming for a result and without a wind change was in the U23 World when he lost 2+ minutes to the winner in about 2/3 distance of a long Tour TT

Contador has been a rather mediocere TTer last year. And he hasn't been special this year so far. The only year he was that so strong was 09. He wasn't anything special in longer time trials in 07 and 08 too.

 

[roundabout]

And how likely is it for him to lose 3 minutes?

He was top 10 in all long flat GT TTs in 07 and 08.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Contador has been a rather mediocere TTer last year. And he hasn't been special this year so far. The only year he was that so strong was 09. He wasn't anything special in longer time trials in 07 and 08 too.

Contador in long TTs:

2007:
6th, Albi TT (54km), TDF
5th, Angoulême (55,5km), TDF

Yes, he lost a couple of minutes, but there is no way Contador isn't taking more than 3 minutes back from Tony Martin in the uphills.

2008:
2nd, Urbino TT (39,4km), Giro
11th, Milano TT (28km), Giro (32 seconds behind Martin but not really representative as Martin was very young and had been rolling around the autobus while Contador was fighting for the GC and not going full gas)
4th, Olympic TT (47,3km), Olympic Games (a minute back from Cancellara in a one-off event. Since we are not going to assume that a Tony Martin that has been fighting in every mountain stage will out-TT Cancellara with any regularity, this suggests that 47km gives Tony about a minute)
4th, Ciudad Real TT (42km), Vuelta

On 2008 form, we can say that Cancellara was a bit better than he had been in 2007 but not amazingly so. This would cut down a level of the advantage Martin could expect to obtain.

2009:
2nd, Palencia TT (28km), Castilla y León
5th, Valence TT (42km), Dauphiné (well within a minute and not in peak form)
1st, Annecy TT (40,3km), TDF (one of the first real representative races between Martin and Contador since Martin had been fighting for his white jersey for two weeks. Contador put a minute into Martin, but Martin has got better since this)

To tell the truth, I'm not really seeing where his TT form in 2009 is that astoundingly better than 2007-8.

2010:
6th, Sorgues TT (49km), Dauphiné (here it starts to unravel, losing over a minute to Brajko)
35th, Bordeaux TT (52km), TDF (worth noting is that no GC contenders are up in the top 10; the likes of Martin and Cancellara had conserved energy specifically for this TT, and most of the top 10 went in the early going. Contador still put in the best time of all the GC contenders bar Menchov, who he lost a minute and a half to).

Even if we consider that in 2010 Contador regressed to his 2007 level of time trialling, we can still see that assuming Martin can take three minutes out of him is rather fanciful, especially considering the balance of GT routes at present. And we haven't seen what Martin is like as a TTer after fighting in the mountains throughout - we saw with Wiggins in '09 that he wasn't able to produce the kind of TT he would have hoped for. Martin himself produced an unusually mediocre time in Annecy after his exertions.

Not that it really matters, because Martin is not yet climbing at a level where I can believe he could be staying within 3 minutes of Contador on the climbs after 3 weeks. Over one week he is a fearsome beast right now. Over three? I remain to be convinced.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Contador in long TTs:

2007:
6th, Albi TT (54km), TDF
5th, Angoulême (55,5km), TDF

Yes, he lost a couple of minutes, but there is no way Contador isn't taking more than 3 minutes back from Tony Martin in the uphills.

2008:
2nd, Urbino TT (39,4km), Giro
11th, Milano TT (28km), Giro (32 seconds behind Martin but not really representative as Martin was very young and had been rolling around the autobus while Contador was fighting for the GC and not going full gas)
4th, Olympic TT (47,3km), Olympic Games (a minute back from Cancellara in a one-off event. Since we are not going to assume that a Tony Martin that has been fighting in every mountain stage will out-TT Cancellara with any regularity, this suggests that 47km gives Tony about a minute)
4th, Ciudad Real TT (42km), Vuelta

On 2008 form, we can say that Cancellara was a bit better than he had been in 2007 but not amazingly so. This would cut down a level of the advantage Martin could expect to obtain.

2009:
2nd, Palencia TT (28km), Castilla y León
5th, Valence TT (42km), Dauphiné (well within a minute and not in peak form)
1st, Annecy TT (40,3km), TDF (one of the first real representative races between Martin and Contador since Martin had been fighting for his white jersey for two weeks. Contador put a minute into Martin, but Martin has got better since this)

To tell the truth, I'm not really seeing where his TT form in 2009 is that astoundingly better than 2007-8.

2010:
6th, Sorgues TT (49km), Dauphiné (here it starts to unravel, losing over a minute to Brajko)
35th, Bordeaux TT (52km), TDF (worth noting is that no GC contenders are up in the top 10; the likes of Martin and Cancellara had conserved energy specifically for this TT, and most of the top 10 went in the early going. Contador still put in the best time of all the GC contenders bar Menchov, who he lost a minute and a half to).

Even if we consider that in 2010 Contador regressed to his 2007 level of time trialling, we can still see that assuming Martin can take three minutes out of him is rather fanciful, especially considering the balance of GT routes at present. And we haven't seen what Martin is like as a TTer after fighting in the mountains throughout - we saw with Wiggins in '09 that he wasn't able to produce the kind of TT he would have hoped for. Martin himself produced an unusually mediocre time in Annecy after his exertions.

Not that it really matters, because Martin is not yet climbing at a level where I can believe he could be staying within 3 minutes of Contador on the climbs after 3 weeks. Over one week he is a fearsome beast right now. Over three? I remain to be convinced.

Well being a Top 5 contender doesn't mean you have to be better then Contador. But Contador won't be at the Tour this year, and who knows if he's next season

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yes, but this year's Tour doesn't feature two 50km+ time trials, and a backloading of mountains. A top 5 from Martin would be eyebrow-raising. On a more suitable parcours he could compete for the podium. He's shown himself capable of winning on a pretty weak Paris-Nice parcours, but he looked strong. However, strong in March on a 7.9km climbs is very different from strong in July on a 25km climb after several days.

I think he can do a very reasonable GT GC position, as long as the route is right. I'm just not sure that the route is right this year, and I am not convinced in the slightest that we can assume a 3 minute gain on Contador over 50km.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Yes, but this year's Tour doesn't feature two 50km+ time trials, and a backloading of mountains. A top 5 from Martin would be eyebrow-raising. On a more suitable parcours he could compete for the podium. He's shown himself capable of winning on a pretty weak Paris-Nice parcours, but he looked strong. However, strong in March on a 7.9km climbs is very different from strong in July on a 25km climb after several days.

I think he can do a very reasonable GT GC position, as long as the route is right. I'm just not sure that the route is right this year, and I am not convinced in the slightest that we can assume a 3 minute gain on Contador over 50km.

Yes, of course this years route isn't suited for him. However, he has to show if he has the potential this year. If he makes it to the Top 10 this year, he shows that he can be a threat. If not, he should reconsider his focus.