Yes but the team in Rio was devoid of other options - that is not the case now, it's 5 years later and Danish cycling is booming.The team in Rio was also pretty much just a one trick pony and it woked out fine, although it only had three men in it (I know the course was harder, too).
I agree, that there are other tactical choices, that Lund could have considered, he probably has, but I also think the chosen strategy makes sense, but it will of course depend on how hard the route actually is, and how the race unfolds. Lund knows that Juul, Valgren and Fuglsang not only know each other quite well, but also have proved that they can work well together. And I would think Fuglsang has been consulted during the process as well, though Lund obviously had the final say.
I can't see, why Valgren wouldn't be able to play the same role as Honoré/Kron in your scenario, and I still won't rate them higher than him, especially not in a championship race, where we know Valgren usually performs at a high level, and just because Asgreen will mainly be there to help Fuglsang, it doesn't mean he could/should only be used to fetch bottles.
Juul's fitness level could be an issue, though they might not expect him to be present for long into the final anyway. It should also be noted that the IOC/UCI deadline for entry submissions is July 5th, so, though it seems very unlikely, Juul could be replaced, if he were already feeling too tired on the first rest day of the Tour.
Speaking of other tactical choices, people tend to forget that is how Mads P won Worlds, he was neither first choice, nor supposed to be there in the end. However both at worlds last year, and now the Olympics, Lund has seems to have regressed to the old way of doing things, putting all our eggs in one basket.
As for Valgren - yes he can do the same job - but both Honore and Kron have been better, last year and this year, so leaving them out for him makes no sense (and yes, I like Valgren, just like I like Juul, this is purely tactical).
I guess Lund doesn't have a high opinion of Honore, he also burned him up at Worlds, as the first or second guy pulling the peloton, when we absolutely did not need to.
But hey, my take on all this may change during the Tour, Valgren and Fuglsang may both take stages and completely change my mind.