Total Disillusionment

[Franklin]

I've had this discussion with Tinman, before. Unusually for a lawyer, I have a mathematical, scientific, rather than liberal arts, rhetorical mind...I appreciate those two approaches are not the be all end all, but I have found an algebric approach to logic the most accurate, and the hypothesis, test, verify model is pretty much gold standard to me.

I agree. And this is exactly why the chances of Wiggins being clean are so small.

1. We all agree there still is doping.
2. The dirty riders/teams and managers are still around.
3. The historic evidence is overwhelmingly against clean winners.
4. Dirty doctors are invariably a sign of doping in a team, be it organized or under the counter.

These are acknowledged by the data we have. The the data every time confirms the hypothesis.

To my mind, useful inductive reasoning requires either a lack of bias, oe a proven ability to overcome it. Neither are on display much here, though some posters, (e.g. hitch, dr maserati, dear wiggo when he keeps his temper, and the gold standard, LS) are laudible in their attempts to try. Otherwise we fall into sherlocks trap re theories and facts.

And this is where I understand your odd stance. Clearly you as a lawyer deal in absolutes. If not proven beyond doubt; innocent. A (social) historian deals with statistics, likelihoods. Whereas a lawyer will (rightly!) not take the criminal behavior of other people in mind when defending a person, historian look at the aggregate. This is also why your grasp of the historic facts is so different. You think "the earlier years were before Wiggins times, hence does not count. Wiggins did not ride for Rabobank, so Leinders is no big deal".

Now if we simply look at the historical data you will immediately see that the data is stacked heavily against Sky (and that's putting it mildly).


. Added is absolutely intolerable behavior of Brailsford (even if you reject the data on David Millar and the inductive reasoning, the other continuous lies are once again undeniable). The complaint will be that tis means every winner is automatically suspicious. This is absolutely right. The next complaint is: You cant proof a negative. This is also true, but not nearly as problematic as people think.

1. Be open.
2. Be consistent and truthful
3. Support solutions

Sky not only fails on all three counts, the manager (another blood red flag) undeniably plays loose and fast with the truth. We all have heard the 500 test myth. Dave decides in a similar vein to cut Leinders involvement. Added is a covert letting go of their own policies by hiring an old school doctor, denying that their own staff couldn't survive the slightest sniff test etc.

 

[MarkvW]

Vino not sell race. Ever. Not even tour of Chavez Lake in S. Mexico. Only buy. Attack. Attack. Attack. Destroy. Buy.

Vino's managing now. I'd bet he'd sell a race if the price was right!

 

[badboygolf16v]

Its true if the entire population of the world were to work as hard and strive to better themselves in such an uplifting way has the Sky team and may I add the British track team do ,well there wouldnt be a recession and space travel would be that much closer

A World of C**ts.

 

[SeriousSam]

To my mind, useful inductive reasoning requires either a lack of bias, oe a proven ability to overcome it

Unusually for a lawyer, I have a mathematical, scientific, rather than liberal arts, rhetorical mind...I appreciate those two approaches are not the be all end all, but I have found an algebric approach to logic the most accurate, and the hypothesis, test, verify model is pretty much gold standard to me.

lol. martinvickers poor understanding of induction, deduction, proof and evidence is evidence he isn't a lawyer.

(as an aside, this is a deductive inference. it follows from P(your posts|you're actually a lawyer)<P(your posts|you're not a lawyer) given bayes theorem!)

 

[ChewbaccaD]

The race today was somewhat believable.

 

[oldcrank]

All true fans of clean cycling should be totally disillusioned
with the Flanders results. On the other hand FabCon's
doctor should expecting a large bonus tomorrow and
will be very pleased. How much longer can this farce
be allowed to continue?

 

[Tinman]

I've had this discussion with Tinman, before. Unusually for a lawyer, I have a mathematical, scientific, rather than liberal arts, rhetorical mind...I appreciate those two approaches are not the be all end all, but I have found an algebric approach to logic the most accurate, and the hypothesis, test, verify model is pretty much gold standard to me.

Interesting. My original training was as a biochemist, but since then I have gravitated towards a less black and white logic-only based approach. Life is too complex to be defined via models alone. And the models too imperfect at best. IMHO.

 

[martinvickers]

lol. martinvickers poor understanding of induction, deduction, proof and evidence is evidence he isn't a lawyer.

(as an aside, this is a deductive inference. it follows from P(your posts|you're actually a lawyer)<P(your posts|you're not a lawyer) given bayes theorem!)

NotsoSerious Sam.

Four words for your little rant.

Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[ANCrider]

Luigi Cancellara has just won a Classic.

Totally disillusioned.

 

[Knutsen]

Luigi Cancellara has just won a Classic.

Totally disillusioned.

Hey, please keep the non-Sky related stuff out of this thread!

 

[Granville57]

Luigi Cancellara has just won a Classic.

Yes. Only just.

 

[hiero2]

The race today was somewhat believable.

All true fans of clean cycling should be totally disillusioned
with the Flanders results. On the other hand FabCon's
doctor should expecting a large bonus tomorrow and
will be very pleased. How much longer can this farce
be allowed to continue?

Chewie: I thought so to. Canc had to bust his **** to drop Sagan. Sagan never really looked bothered to me, so he has a good poker face, but he couldn't hold the pressure on that last climb.

Oldcrank: Btw - just because you are taking the side that because things are suspicious, the riders are guilty, do not assume the rest of us do. Personally, I am of the opinion that when Ashenden said SOME teams and riders were still doing stuff, in his opinion, that he meant SOME, and not ALL. Therefore, I can believe some riders are clean(ish), and I can think that there are riders who are clean(ish). Including Canc!

 

[JimmyFingers]

Chewie: I thought so to. Canc had to bust his **** to drop Sagan. Sagan never really looked bothered to me, so he has a good poker face, but he couldn't hold the pressure on that last climb.

Oldcrank: Btw - just because you are taking the side that because things are suspicious, the riders are guilty, do not assume the rest of us do. Personally, I am of the opinion that when Ashenden said SOME teams and riders were still doing stuff, in his opinion, that he meant SOME, and not ALL. Therefore, I can believe some riders are clean(ish), and I can think that there are riders who are clean(ish). Including Canc!

Good post. I'll give all riders the benefit of the doubt, even Luigi

[edit] Although if I was a morecynical man, taking over a minute in what was it, about 12k was mightily impressive

 

[Tom T.]

Good post. I'll give all riders the benefit of the doubt, even Luigi

[edit] Although if I was a morecynical man, taking over a minute in what was it, about 12k was mightily impressive

I'd like to see Cance's average speed from the top the Paterberg to the finish, where he put in 1:30 on Sagan. Or his power output from his point of attack on the Paterberg to the finish. I bet each was pretty supernatural considering the 250 km already in his legs.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

I'd like to see Cance's average speed from the top the Paterberg to the finish, where he put in 1:30 on Sagan. Or his power output from his point of attack on the Paterberg to the finish. I bet each was pretty supernatural considering the 250 km already in his legs.

Around 50k/hour. Part headwind, part sidewind, part backwind.

Must have been around 5.93w/k

 

[ANCrider]

Personally, I am of the opinion that when Ashenden said SOME teams and riders were still doing stuff, in his opinion, that he meant SOME, and not ALL. Therefore, I can believe some riders are clean(ish), and I can think that there are riders who are clean(ish). Including Canc!

IIRC RaceRadio seemed fairly sure that Cancellara was a Fuentes client.

 

[JimmyFingers]

The cameras clocked the motorbike's speedo at 50kph in the run in, as FGL says. AS I said, mightily impressive

[edit] but believable, as Chewie said

 

[Netserk]

Prepare yourself to drop your jaws, when he annihilates the WCRR.

 

[roundabout]

I'd like to see Cance's average speed from the top the Paterberg to the finish, where he put in 1:30 on Sagan. Or his power output from his point of attack on the Paterberg to the finish. I bet each was pretty supernatural considering the 250 km already in his legs.

49.5 average. Pretty sick.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

49.5 average. Pretty sick.

same old Cancellara, pretty much at the same level as when he was a client of Fuentes.

Digging a bit deeper in the pile and Kwiatkowski's performance looks too good. More than 100km (?) in a break and almost able to stay with Cancellara and Sagan at the business end.

Most of the rest looked not 'out of the world'.

 

[frenchfry]

Chewie: I thought so to. Canc had to bust his **** to drop Sagan. Sagan never really looked bothered to me, so he has a good poker face, but he couldn't hold the pressure on that last climb.

Oldcrank: Btw - just because you are taking the side that because things are suspicious, the riders are guilty, do not assume the rest of us do. Personally, I am of the opinion that when Ashenden said SOME teams and riders were still doing stuff, in his opinion, that he meant SOME, and not ALL. Therefore, I can believe some riders are clean(ish), and I can think that there are riders who are clean(ish). Including Canc!

Indeed the fact that we don't know and have doubts is the reason for this thread. We are disillusioned because great performances are suspect - yet we want to believe.

 

[thehog]

Chewie: I thought so to. Canc had to bust his **** to drop Sagan. Sagan never really looked bothered to me, so he has a good poker face, but he couldn't hold the pressure on that last climb.

Oldcrank: Btw - just because you are taking the side that because things are suspicious, the riders are guilty, do not assume the rest of us do. Personally, I am of the opinion that when Ashenden said SOME teams and riders were still doing stuff, in his opinion, that he meant SOME, and not ALL. Therefore, I can believe some riders are clean(ish), and I can think that there are riders who are clean(ish). Including Canc!

Sagan blew completely. Started stuffing gels when he was dropped. He slowed to a crawl then got his pace back up again.

Sagan was shot to pieces.

 

[JimmyFingers]

Sagan blew completely. Started stuffing gels when he was dropped. He slowed to a crawl then got his pace back up again.

Sagan was shot to pieces.

I thought it was a knife that killed him...

 

[JimmyFingers]

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arms race?

 

[TheGame]

Cancellara today, made the entire peloton look like utter mugs.

I really hope when WADA get hold of the Puerto samples they turn up something. **** take, complete and utter **** take.