Tour 2012. Who is your money on.

[The Cobra]

I dont think Contador will be there so he's out.

Menchov? Definately a good podium shout but getting an invite could be a big problem.

Froome? If he can somehow find his Vuelta form is going to be a massive threat if he does the Tour.

Schlecks, errr no.

This tour will be a straight fight between Evans and Wiggins. I'll go with Wiggo
As for my actual money, its on Tony Martin @ 200/1!!

 

[Ferminal]

I can't understand why there is the belief that somehow Andy was not on form for the Tour. I'm guessing many are basing their assumption on his feeble attacks in the early mountain stages but IMO this was more a result of his waiting on Frank than his own inability to take time. Only when presented with the liklihood that he may not even get on the podium did he throw all caution to the wind and commit to his attack that led to his stage win on the Galibier. Supposedly the purpose for his move was to set up his brother, hoping that his opponents would wear themselves and their domestiques out in trying to reel him in, allowing Frank to sit in, and ultimately attack and gain valuable time once the catch was made, at least that is what I recall reading somewhere.

Where did I say he wasn't on form?

 

[Nikoloz]

I want to see kloden on podium...

last chance for him...

 

[The Hitch]

November will tell us that, but the Giro showed us that he's still got the all-court game to be favourite on any parcours.

No worries, Im sure the hearing will get moved till next August

 

[PCutter]

Porte.

Wiggo falls over in a lead out for Cav on stage 1 opening things up nicely for Porte to take over.

 

[daveinzambia]

Sorry, I am catching up with things. Has Sky made it clear what its aims are for the TdF, with the Olympics and all?

I bet some folk are Sky are a bit peeved that that TdF course had to come this year, from a GC point of view.

I think before the course was announced (maybe they already had some inside info) Wiggins had already started to make it clear he would be riding the tour and he would be riding to win

now the course is announced i think that will doubly be the case

Not sure i understand the comments about Froome not being at the tour. Would have thought he would be third name on the list after Wiggins and Cav.

 

[AussieGoddess]

Yeah if Contador is there, the fight between Wiggins and Evans for 2nd and 3rd will be good.

Porte is actually a pretty good choice too ... will be interesting to see how he goes, especially if AC is not there.

I like Menchov, but doubt that he will be there.

One thing is for sure .... there will be LOTS of time trialling practice going on between now and July

 

[The Hitch]

Menchov will be there if he wants to.

Earlier this year when Geox failed to get a tour invite Menchov had the option of going to another team but decided to stay with them.

Next year he could do just that. I hear Vacan have some money.

 

[AussieGoddess]

but hasnt he already re-signed with Geox now?

so if Geox dont make pro-tour then he most likely wont be riding?

Is there some way he can ride for another team, and would Geox allow it?

 

[The Hitch]

but hasnt he already re-signed with Geox now?

so if Geox dont make pro-tour then he most likely wont be riding?

Is there some way he can ride for another team, and would Geox allow it?

He can do what he wants, hes the pope.

Sure he might have to buy out his contract or something, or the new team would, but if come February Geox has no invite i think he can move. Least thats what was suggested this year.

Also he could try some back room stuff now. Ask Prudhomme face to face, is Geox going to be allowed in or not.

 

[AussieGoddess]

fair enough.

I do hope he is there. Its his best chance of a Tour win, and he does deserve a shot at it.

 

[Nielsa]

He can do what he wants, hes the pope.

Sure he might have to buy out his contract or something, or the new team would, but if come February Geox has no invite i think he can move. Least thats what was suggested this year.

Also he could try some back room stuff now. Ask Prudhomme face to face, is Geox going to be allowed in or not.

I read somewhere that he had a contract clause (no TdF= he can leave Geox) this year but he chose not to exercise it.

 

[The Hitch]

Also regarding Wiggins.

I remember when everyone was saying 2009 was a fluke and that he would never top 10 again.

Back then I argued that that was not the case and that he would be back.

Now everyone thinks he can win or podium.

I do think though a few riders will drop him in the mountains and hills and cause him some problems.

 

[hughmoore]

He can do what he wants, hes the pope.

Sure he might have to buy out his contract or something, or the new team would, but if come February Geox has no invite i think he can move. Least thats what was suggested this year.

Also he could try some back room stuff now. Ask Prudhomme face to face, is Geox going to be allowed in or not.

I agree, would have an option to leave, while he chose to stay last year, you would question whether he would opt to stay again. maybe last year couldnt get a spot with equiv money.

When do they annouce the teams for the Tour, thats not until May?

Given the poll controversy, maybe we need a poll to see who can be in the poll.

I want Evans to win again, but voted Contador as I think he will be riding.


Hugh

 

[c&cfan]

People might vote for them, so they are in.

I don't understand this threads. seriously.

anyone that doesn't choose alberto has to be seen as ignorant. there's no logical explanation to not choose him, so those that can't follow logic must be seen as retards or something like that.

if you don't like my answer, talk to hitch. that's his fault.

maybe he should've post "who do you want to win the tour?".
if someone asks who the fav is and you don't choose "the most talented guy" that has been dominating everything since 2007 you have to be *** or something like that. personal wishes and feelings don't matter to this subject.

useless this thread is useless.

 

[The Hitch]

I agree, would have an option to leave, while he chose to stay last year, you would question whether he would opt to stay again. maybe last year couldnt get a spot with equiv money.

When do they annouce the teams for the Tour, thats not until May?



I want Evans to win again, but voted Contador as I think he will be riding.


Hugh

It used to be May but last year was February, before even the Giro announced.

Given the poll controversy, maybe we need a poll to see who can be in the poll.

If theres a controversy, funny how only 3 people out of 116 so far have voted for "other" and one of them admitted he didnt see the course so just chose his favourite rider - JVDB.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I am not sure why Cancerella is on the list. His TT seems slightly on the wane and even with a full focus on GC he would lose 4 minutes on Le Tosseirre stage. Minimum.

Martin deserves his spot on the list based on his younger age. He could improve his climbing sufficiently enough to be a top 5 contender on this parcours.

Contador and Evans are clearly the top 2 for me, with Alberto a slight favourite. Both seem about even in the TT. Can't really go off Evans in '09 as he was injured, and then any lacklustre performances against the clock in the Vuelta followed the TDF, so he can't have been fully fresh. Same goes for Contadors performance in this years ITT, where he finished about a minute down on Evans, which for me was impressive.

Not saying that Cadel is the better TT, but he could defeat Contador in it, which gives him a chance, even against a fully fit Contador on this parcours.

I wouldn't put Wiggins on the same level as Evans, though he do quite well considering the course. Kloden could be on his same level if he recovers his early season form - big if, as he will be 37 come the 2012 TDF.

Sami Sanchez was impressive this year and is a good podium chance on this course. Nibali also if he rides.

The Schlecks should focus on other GT's.

 

[richo36]

I don't understand this threads. seriously.

anyone that doesn't choose alberto has to be seen as ignorant. there's no logical explanation to not choose him, so those that can't follow logic must be seen as retards or something like that.

if you don't like my answer, talk to hitch. that's his fault.

maybe he should've post "who do you want to win the tour?".
if someone asks who the fav is and you don't choose "the most talented guy" that has been dominating everything since 2007 you have to be *** or something like that. personal wishes and feelings don't matter to this subject.

useless this thread is useless.

really?
1 logical reason is that some people think he will be banned in november. Its like menchov, im not going to vote for a rider in a who is fav poll when there is a more than likely chance he wont even ride.

The other reason is alberto has the weakest team out of the other favourites. this years tour he lost time on stage 1 (yes he was in a crash but he wasnt riding at the front). stage 3 (i think) in 2010 he lost time to cadel and andy on a cobbles stage.
looking at the route for next years tour it is going to be decided by a small margin. he cant afford to lose to much time early on and having a week team does not help this.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Also regarding Wiggins.

I remember when everyone was saying 2009 was a fluke and that he would never top 10 again.

Back then I argued that that was not the case and that he would be back.

Now everyone thinks he can win or podium.

I do think though a few riders will drop him in the mountains and hills and cause him some problems.

I suspect that with that last comment you are not standing as far from the 'everyone' crowd as you appear to define it.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I am not sure why Cancerella is on the list. His TT seems slightly on the wane and even with a full focus on GC he would lose 4 minutes on Le Tosseirre stage. Minimum.

Martin deserves his spot on the list based on his younger age. He could improve his climbing sufficiently enough to be a top 5 contender on this parcours.

Contador and Evans are clearly the top 2 for me, with Alberto a slight favourite. Both seem about even in the TT. Can't really go off Evans in '09 as he was injured, and then any lacklustre performances against the clock in the Vuelta followed the TDF, so he can't have been fully fresh. Same goes for Contadors performance in this years ITT, where he finished about a minute down on Evans, which for me was impressive.

Not saying that Cadel is the better TT, but he could defeat Contador in it, which gives him a chance, even against a fully fit Contador on this parcours.

I wouldn't put Wiggins on the same level as Evans, though he do quite well considering the course. Kloden could be on his same level if he recovers his early season form - big if, as he will be 37 come the 2012 TDF.

Sami Sanchez was impressive this year and is a good podium chance on this course. Nibali also if he rides.

The Schlecks should focus on other GT's.

Roche has a better chance to top 10 than Martin does (even though I like both of them).

Wiggins would be lucky if he podiums. Kloden of course could do good but will be supporting Frandy.

Sami, Nibali, and Kreuziger all stand a good chance of podiuming if they ride.

With The Hog they are riding Tour to try and win.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I suspect that with that last comment you are not standing as far from the 'everyone' crowd as you appear to define it.

I think he is saying that he was in the 'everyone' crowd first and is trying to say he was right.

 

[airstream]

Wow, Nibali and Kreuziger are good for this parcours but Schleck who beat them in the long ITT's is not even in the pole.
Very interesting who voted for Valverde.

TheHitch, I see the only Samu's attack on descend for 3 years of participation that was initiated by Contador, increased his chances in many times... Or Sanchez is going to crush everyone in TT??)

 

[theyoungest]

Wow, Nibali and Kreuziger are good for this parcours but Schleck who beat them in the long ITT's is not even in the pole.

You're right, Schleck's TT might not be great, he still got 17th in the Grenoble TT, which is a result that someone like Kreuziger can only hope to achieve.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He probably won't, but I'd say a 3-time 2nd place in the Tour might deserve a mention on a favorites for the Tour poll more than Spartacus, right?

if the guy had a brain he'd go to Italy

 

[Maxiton]

I've been busy playing in the Free Form/Chaos thread. (It's getting addictive), but this is too good to pass up.

It's easy to pick Contador, but what fun is that? If he isn't banned he has to be the favorite - though from what I understand of the parcours it won't be an open and shut case for him. Probably, though, Contador will be banned, so the parcours won't matter for him.

Evans team will be a huge asset for him, only if - and it's a big if - the sum of it proves to be greater than the parts. My fear is that (the egos of) the parts will be greater than their sum, as usually happens with super teams. If the guys can really mesh together, accept Evans' leadership, and work for him - and if Evans shows up with the form of 2011 - the likelihood is high that we'll see him in yellow in Paris.

I agree with what Alpe said earlier, that Voeckler (or Rolland) or one of the other Frenchies could steal the Tour in the process of stealing one or more stages. It's certainly possible.

As for the others:

Fabian Cancellara - Would be awesome, but no.

Christopher Froome - Not gonna happen.

Tony Martin - See Cancellara.

Dennis Menchov - He'll be in jail.

Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez - Sorry Hitch, don't think so.

Alejandro Valverde Belemonte - Might be a possibility. We'll have to see how he goes after his lay off.

Bradley Wiggins - Top three, maybe, but not top step.

Other/ Vino - Who knows?