Tour de France 2015 Stage 16: Bourg-de-Péage-Gap 201km

[greenedge]

If the big riders come to the finish Gallopin has a great chance to win. He's got a good sprint and can descend well (to presumably catch up to the climbers). I really hope that Froome is dropped too.

 

[Escarabajo]

Have you seen the previous times that they have raced this stage?

If it is raced hard by the GC contenders no sprinter has any chance. None.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Matthews has been targeting this stage since before the Tour started. Of course with his injuries it's hard to say if he will be up there with the best. It would be nice to see Orica get a stage win.

He picked the wrong stage completely.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

lol at the odds for this stage. The favourites are Valverde and Nibali with odds of 14/1 at bet365.

And your favourites are?

Ok, I'm little bit surprised Sagan/Matthews/etc are not bigger favourites. This is not so hard stage. Or am I totally wrong?

Sagan must be really tired and Matthews rides with broken ribs, that´s why.

I don't know. Sagan said he had good legs today and he was right there with pure sprinters after being one and half stage on the break. Ok, on stage 14 he didnt work but what about on stage 15. I didn't see it. Maybe he is not as tired as we think.

Manse is just 5,6%. What makes it "not an easy climb"? It has to be raced really hard if they want to drop likes Sagan and Bling ( if on form). That's what I think.

That looooong drag up to the Col de Cabre will take it's toll. This will be won by an attacking lower GC rider or a break unless it's raced very conservatively.

 

[Sasquatch]

Sicard or Kruijswijk hopefully

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Matthews has been targeting this stage since before the Tour started. Of course with his injuries it's hard to say if he will be up there with the best. It would be nice to see Orica get a stage win.

He picked the wrong stage completely.

When in good form he is a pretty good climber. Of course with him recovering from his injury he most likely has no chance.

 

[glassmoon]

Pinot to lose 15 minutes during the final descent

 

[Lil_Tommy_V]

Correct me if I am wrong but Badret grew up or is from around Gap? His local knowledge led to him flying down the decent in the dauphine last month?

Surely he goes in the break and tries again? However I would assume he would need to arrive alone as he would be out sprinted by most

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Or coz 2/3s of members thought tomorrow is a rest day?

LOL. If you didn't write this, I would probably not watch today's stage because I would be actually thinking today is a rest day.

 

[malakassis]

Nibali and Contador/Valverde to attack on the descent.

Do you think the descent is technical enough?

i also think the strong descenders could try there. gap/manse has often produced gaps among GCs. i wonder if sky makes train in manse to prophylaktikally drop strong descenders. on the other hand sky needs to save their mountain-energies for the alps. already porte and geraint in decline.
does anyone expekt "crazy" attaks from GC riders as early as cabre?

 

[Jagartrott]

Finally an interesting stage.
Difficult to predict what will happen. I expect a quality break to get away with guys like Martin, De Gendt, Vuillermoz etc. but I don't know if Tinkoff and Astana will send riders (Kreuziger, Kangert?) in the break. Contador and Nibali will surely attack in the downhill, but for the win (hence I don't know if they'll send someone in the break) or just for time gain. Normally I would say Gallopin could win here from a breakaway, but he'll be marked.

 

[johnymax]

Re: Re:

lol at the odds for this stage. The favourites are Valverde and Nibali with odds of 14/1 at bet365.

And your favourites are?

Ok, I'm little bit surprised Sagan/Matthews/etc are not bigger favourites. This is not so hard stage. Or am I totally wrong?

I agree with the favourites (although I think the break will take it). I was just pointing out the big odds. Normally you get 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 for the stage favourite. It just shows how unpredictable this stage is.

 

[Brullnux]

I hope the break is caught so that VN will attack for the stage win and AC will follow for time gain, then both work together tomaximize it. They're both champions so I see why not.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Re: Re:

Matthews has been targeting this stage since before the Tour started. Of course with his injuries it's hard to say if he will be up there with the best. It would be nice to see Orica get a stage win.

He picked the wrong stage completely.

Yep, that is really stupid by Matthews. This isn't a stage for a sprinter, nor a stayer like himself. I'd actually expect one of the Yates brothers to have a go today.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Gallopin to gallop down the descent to victory. GC guys give each other admiring looks on the climb.

 

[Ruby United]

What I like about this stage is the uncertainty of it.

2013 was won by a top class breakaway specialist and climber
2011 by (two) sprinter(s) {yes, I know Hushovd and EBH aren't pure sprinters)
and yet people are talking about the GC contenders.

Personally, I feel it will be someone like Rui Costa, or TDG, from a break

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

As we all saw in '96, even a decent breakaway with top spring classic riders can get caught by a sprint bunch shortly after the passage of Col du Manse.

Though I dunno if they ride Manse the same way this year. But having climbed it myself both ways on more occations, even the steepest way is not that hard, the decent is technical yes.

It all depends on how much a given breakaway has before the last climb.

 

[wirral]

Re:

What I like about this stage is the uncertainty of it.

2013 was won by a top class breakaway specialist and climber
2011 by (two) sprinter(s) {yes, I know Hushovd and EBH aren't pure sprinters)
and yet people are talking about the GC contenders.

Personally, I feel it will be someone like Rui Costa, or TDG, from a break

Yes, perhaps, someone like Cancellara or Bouhanni or Tony Martin, or even Steve Morabito or any of the other abandons.

Sorry couldn't resist that.

 

[ILovecycling]

Matthews FTW

 

[saganftw]

astana has to pull on the front for nibali,they are not winning anything if not today...bardet could be a dark horse

hoping for rain

 

[franic]

Re:

astana has to pull on the front for nibali,they are not winning anything if not today...bardet could be a dark horse

hoping for rain

IF he is in front he may try something on the final descent. Sprinters excluded, Nibali is one of the top descenders n the Tour

 

[Netserk]

Re:

As we all saw in '96, even a decent breakaway with top spring classic riders can get caught by a sprint bunch shortly after the passage of Col du Manse.

Though I dunno if they ride Manse the same way this year. But having climbed it myself both ways on more occations, even the steepest way is not that hard, the decent is technical yes.

It all depends on how much a given breakaway has before the last climb.

They didn't do Manse nor that descent that year. They came from the south through Sentinelle, just like in 2006.

 

[Cyclingismylife]

What do you think about Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen today?

 

[Eagle]

Greg Van Avermaet has withdrawn

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Greg Van Avermaet has withdrawn

Such a shame for Sagan that Mrs. van Avermaet didn't go into labor earlier.