Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[barmaher]

Route is announced on Tuesday 20th October.

 

[Tangled Tango]

Re:

Route is announced on Tuesday 20th October.

Thanks!

 

[Bavarianrider]

WEll, Andorra Arcalis can create quite some gaps if the stage is really Long, and ridden hard.

If it's a modern Sissy stage you get what you saw in 09 for example, of course.

1. Jan Ullrich (Ger) TEL 7.46.06 (avs: 32,503 km/h)
2. Marco Pantani (Ita) MER 1.08
3. Richard Virenque (Fra) FES 1.08
4. Francesco Casagrande (Ita) SAE 2.01
5. Bjarne Riis (Dan) TEL 3.23
6. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) FES 3.27
7. Jose Maria Jimenez (Spa) BAN 3.45
8. Fernando Escartin (Spa) KEL
9. Abraham Olano (Spa) BAN
10. Alberto Elli (Ita) CSO
11. Marco Fincato (Ita) ROS
12. Pascal Lino (Fra) BIG
13. Roberto Conti (Ita) MER
14. Peter Luttenberger (Aut) RAB 4.02
15. Kevin Livingston (USA) COF 4.15
16. Beat Zberg (Swi) MER 4.46
17. Joona Laukka (Fin) FES
18. Oskar Camenzind (Swi) MAP
19. Laurent Roux (Fra) TVM
20. Jean-Philippe Dojwa (Fra) MUT 5.12
21. Daniele Nardello (Ita) MAP 6.25
22. David Delrieu (Fra) MUT 6.49
23. Bobby Julich (USA) COF 7.05
24. Frangois Simon (Fra) GAN 7.44
25. Cidric Vasseur (Fra) GAN
26. Michael Boogerd (Ned) RAB
27. Christophe Moreau (Fra) FES
28. Pascal Chanteur (Fra) CSO
29. Marcello Siboni (Ita) MER
30. Hernan Buenahora (Col) KEL 8.16
31. Laurent Madouas (Fra) LOT 8.27
32. Manuel Beltran (Spa) BAN
33. Gianluca Bortolami (Ita) FES 10.21
34. Massimo Podenzana (Ita) MER 11.18
35. Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) USP
36. Santiago Blanco (Spa) BAN 11.43
37. Rolf Aldag (Ger) TEL 12.13
38. Mikel Zarrabeitia (Spa) ONC 12.49
39. Benont Salmon (Fra) LOT 13.51
40. Orlando Rodrigues (Por) BAN 15.03
41. Andreo Teteriuk (Kzk) LOT 15.28
42. Jose de los Angeles (Spa) KEL 17.18
43. Angel Casero (Spa) BAN
44. Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) SAE
45. Andrea Peron (Ita) FDJ
46. Valentino Fois (Ita) MAP 18.21
47. Neil Stephens (Aus) FES 18.59
48. Laurent Jalabert (Fra) ONC
49. Oscar Pellicioli (Ita) MER 19.40
50. Jon Odriozola (Spa) BAT

 

[barmaher]

So from what I can gather, it seems sure the Tour will hit the Pyrenees before the Alps.

First high mountain stage is rumoured to be Pau to Loudenvielle. I would guess that stage will be Tourmalet followed by Hourquette d'Anzican, with a finish in Loudenvielle.

Maybe there will be a mountain stage on the day before (first Friday) but I doubt it given the amount of time they look like spending in the Alps.

The stage finishing in Andorra could be anything. I would say it will be a cracker.

The Alps look all over the place, as mentioned above they are going to Switzerland, possibly Italy and they will be in the overall Alps region for a week. Maybe they will put a flat stage in on the Tuesday or Wednesday while in the region, otherwise the Tour would be very mountainous.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

So from what I can gather, it seems sure the Tour will hit the Pyrenees before the Alps.

First high mountain stage is rumoured to be Pau to Loudenvielle. I would guess that stage will be Tourmalet followed by Hourquette d'Anzican, with a finish in Loudenvielle.

With Peyresourde 15k from the finish line, I presume.

 

[valentius borealis]

Re: Re:

So from what I can gather, it seems sure the Tour will hit the Pyrenees before the Alps.

First high mountain stage is rumoured to be Pau to Loudenvielle. I would guess that stage will be Tourmalet followed by Hourquette d'Anzican, with a finish in Loudenvielle.

With Peyresourde 15k from the finish line, I presume.

We should expect either Tourmalet -> Hourquette d'Anzican -> Val Louron-Azet or Port de Bales -> Peyresourde for a Loudenville finish, but the pessimist in me expects Aspin to be the final climb.

 

[guncha]

TDF 1997 had a stage from Pau to Loudenville. If I remember correctly it had Soulor, Tourmalet, Aspin and Val Louron/Azet 10km before finish. I expect similar profile next year. IMHO, it is a better stage than Pau to Luchon of 2012 because Val Louron/Azet is more difficult and closer to finish than Peyresourde.

 

[barmaher]

Soulor before Tourmalet, and then it is a good stage. I suspect they will go with Valentius' first suggestion above and have a stage of 150km. It is the new way.

Here is the route including Soulor.

 

[antmills]

WEll, Andorra Arcalis can create quite some gaps if the stage is really Long, and ridden hard.

If it's a modern Sissy stage you get what you saw in 09 for example, of course.

1. Jan Ullrich (Ger) TEL 7.46.06 (avs: 32,503 km/h)
2. Marco Pantani (Ita) MER 1.08
3. Richard Virenque (Fra) FES 1.08
4. Francesco Casagrande (Ita) SAE 2.01
5. Bjarne Riis (Dan) TEL 3.23
6. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) FES 3.27
7. Jose Maria Jimenez (Spa) BAN 3.45
8. Fernando Escartin (Spa) KEL
9. Abraham Olano (Spa) BAN
10. Alberto Elli (Ita) CSO
11. Marco Fincato (Ita) ROS
12. Pascal Lino (Fra) BIG
13. Roberto Conti (Ita) MER
14. Peter Luttenberger (Aut) RAB 4.02
15. Kevin Livingston (USA) COF 4.15
16. Beat Zberg (Swi) MER 4.46
17. Joona Laukka (Fin) FES
18. Oskar Camenzind (Swi) MAP
19. Laurent Roux (Fra) TVM
20. Jean-Philippe Dojwa (Fra) MUT 5.12
21. Daniele Nardello (Ita) MAP 6.25
22. David Delrieu (Fra) MUT 6.49
23. Bobby Julich (USA) COF 7.05
24. Frangois Simon (Fra) GAN 7.44
25. Cidric Vasseur (Fra) GAN
26. Michael Boogerd (Ned) RAB
27. Christophe Moreau (Fra) FES
28. Pascal Chanteur (Fra) CSO
29. Marcello Siboni (Ita) MER
30. Hernan Buenahora (Col) KEL 8.16
31. Laurent Madouas (Fra) LOT 8.27
32. Manuel Beltran (Spa) BAN
33. Gianluca Bortolami (Ita) FES 10.21
34. Massimo Podenzana (Ita) MER 11.18
35. Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) USP
36. Santiago Blanco (Spa) BAN 11.43
37. Rolf Aldag (Ger) TEL 12.13
38. Mikel Zarrabeitia (Spa) ONC 12.49
39. Benont Salmon (Fra) LOT 13.51
40. Orlando Rodrigues (Por) BAN 15.03
41. Andreo Teteriuk (Kzk) LOT 15.28
42. Jose de los Angeles (Spa) KEL 17.18
43. Angel Casero (Spa) BAN
44. Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) SAE
45. Andrea Peron (Ita) FDJ
46. Valentino Fois (Ita) MAP 18.21
47. Neil Stephens (Aus) FES 18.59
48. Laurent Jalabert (Fra) ONC
49. Oscar Pellicioli (Ita) MER 19.40
50. Jon Odriozola (Spa) BAT

.... Quite the rogues gallery there!

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

So from what I can gather, it seems sure the Tour will hit the Pyrenees before the Alps.

First high mountain stage is rumoured to be Pau to Loudenvielle. I would guess that stage will be Tourmalet followed by Hourquette d'Anzican, with a finish in Loudenvielle.

With Peyresourde 15k from the finish line, I presume.

We should expect either Tourmalet -> Hourquette d'Anzican -> Val Louron-Azet or Port de Bales -> Peyresourde for a Loudenville finish, but the pessimist in me expects Aspin to be the final climb.

There's no point in climbing Ancizan instead of Aspin if they're coming from Tourmalet. Ancizan West is easier than Aspin west.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

Soulor before Tourmalet, and then it is a good stage. I suspect they will go with Valentius' first suggestion above and have a stage of 150km. It is the new way.

Here is the route including Soulor.

That's a tough profile for the first day in the Pyrenees. Even more so considering it will come earlier than usually in the race.

 

[barmaher]

That is not a rumour, though.

Just wishful thinking by me based off the rumoured start and finish stages.

 

[sir fly]

There's not many options for a proper downhill finish in Loudenvielle.
This could be the unpopular, long run in, stage.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

There's not many options for a proper downhill finish in Loudenvielle.
This could be the unpopular, long run in, stage.

There are two 1st category climbs with a downhill finishing directly in Loudenville and the last one is only false flat, so a little bit like cautarets this year, is that not enough for you

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

There's not many options for a proper downhill finish in Loudenvielle.
This could be the unpopular, long run in, stage.

There are two 1st category climbs with a downhill finishing directly in Loudenville and the last one is only false flat, so a little bit like cautarets this year, is that not enough for you

And one of the two is not an option from the direction they're coming this time.
Col d'Azet downhill should be entertaining.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Is something similar to Loudenville 2003 possible? Loved that stage

 

[sir fly]

Re:

Is something similar to Loudenville 2003 possible? Loved that stage

They're coming from the west this time. The eastern attractions would require considerable detour.

 

[McLovin]

So there is not going to be a TT frome Morzine to Les Gets after all.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

So there is not going to be a TT frome Morzine to Les Gets after all.

Sadly.

But at least we should have the classic Morzine finish via Joux Plane, and that is great news.

 

[McLovin]

If it's true that the stage will start in Sallanches then it has to be Megeve, Aravais, Colombiere (Romme?) and Joux Plane. Ramaz would be to much in the final week for ASO.

 

[Ashhutch97]

As much as I really like classic finish in Morzine via the joux Plane, I would really like to see the Joux plane followed by a finish at Avoriaz. Could be similar to the Fedaia - Pordoi double or the Finestre - Sesriere double in the Giro, which are both epic.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

So there is not going to be a TT frome Morzine to Les Gets after all.

How do you know this?

And does that mean that there is a 50km flat ITT instead?

The first hilly time trial had better not be the only one

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

So there is not going to be a TT frome Morzine to Les Gets after all.

How do you know this?

And does that mean that there is a 50km flat ITT instead?

The first hilly time trial had better not be the only one

http://www.velowire.com/article/940...out-the-race-route-and-the-stage-cities-.html

The only rumored TT (so far?) is a "flat" one for the specialists. The hills in that area, if you can call them that, are insignificant.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Stage 10 from Andorre to Revel, with côte de Saint-Ferréol before the finish. http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2015/10/08/2193488-exclusif-retour-tour-france-revel-12-juillet-2016-2016.html (in french)