Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[damian13ster]

Any news about TTs?
In order to balance route from this year there should be at least one 50km, and one 25-30km pancake flat TT

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

@Valv.Piti:
Aprica and Sestriere surely are different but I used them as examples because you said that Avoriaz is too easy. The better comparison is probably Fedaia - Pordoi. Fedaia is maybe a little bit more difficult but still these combinations are very alike and I think nobody would doubt that Fedaia - Pordoi is epic.

Fedaia is maybe a little bit more difficult than Joux-Plane, I assume?

Because Fedaia (Fedaia!!!) is clearly a lot more difficult than Pordoi.

 

[unknownmerd]

If the Ventoux (14th) Bern (18th-20th) and Alps afterwards reports are all correct, we're definitely going to be looking at a somewhat weirdly shaped final 10 days.

Would much prefer Ventoux on the 14th, sprint/intermediate on 15th, alps on 16th/17th, something like Thonon-les-bains into Bern on the 18th and a tough Jura stage on the 20th and a Vosges sledgehammer on the 22nd.

Ah well, we can but dream.

 

[Tonton]

If the Ventoux (14th) Bern (18th-20th) and Alps afterwards reports are all correct, we're definitely going to be looking at a somewhat weirdly shaped final 10 days.

Would much prefer Ventoux on the 14th, sprint/intermediate on 15th, alps on 16th/17th, something like Thonon-les-bains into Bern on the 18th and a tough Jura stage on the 20th and a Vosges sledgehammer on the 22nd.

Ah well, we can but dream.

With Champagnole as a candidate town, if it's true, the Jura stage won't be tough. That's a flat plateau quite far from the interesting climbs: the ones in the vallee de la Loue (i.e. Cote de Hautepierre), the Col de la Vierge from Switzerland to France, or my soon to be featured in the course design thread, le Mont d'Or west side 5.1K at 10.5% (last km is 15-18%). A dream. I'd settle for a MTF atop Mont Poupet in Salins. It's a nasty climb.

 

[rghysens]

Any news about TTs?
In order to balance route from this year there should be at least one 50km, and one 25-30km pancake flat TT

There are strong Rumours about 2 TT's. One would be from Bourg Saint-Andéol to Vallon Pont d'Arc, the other from Morzine to Les Gets.
The Vallon Pont d'Arc TT would presumably be on july 15th, after the rumoured Mt Ventoux stage on Bastille Day. The exact course of that stage isn't fully known, of course, but it would feature a ride through the gorges de l'Ardeche. If so, it would be between 40 to 52km long (the shortest distance between BSA and VPA is 30km) and be something like this:

Another possibility offers a 5.5km @ 5% climb right from the start and then the same final 20km, but there are some other possibilities too.

The Morzine TT would be after the stage to Morzine/Avoriaz, 22km long and feature a climb up the Col de l'Encrenaz. Like this:

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

@Valv.Piti:
Aprica and Sestriere surely are different but I used them as examples because you said that Avoriaz is too easy. The better comparison is probably Fedaia - Pordoi. Fedaia is maybe a little bit more difficult but still these combinations are very alike and I think nobody would doubt that Fedaia - Pordoi is epic.

Fedaia is maybe a little bit more difficult than Joux-Plane, I assume?

Because Fedaia (Fedaia!!!) is clearly a lot more difficult than Pordoi.

What do you mean? As I said Fedaia is more difficult than Joux Plane but I still think that the Joux Plane is difficult enough to cause action in a combination with Avoriaz.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Any news about TTs?
In order to balance route from this year there should be at least one 50km, and one 25-30km pancake flat TT

In order to balance it from this years route, they'd need almost 200kms of ITT

Liking the rumours for the 2016 course thus far. Some similarities to the 2013 course, and better, with Morzine in, and Alp 'Duez out.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I actually think that Joux Plane is as difficult as Fedaia, if not maybe a little harder

 

[bajbar]

They should start with a prologue instead of the normal stage - there are always crashes when they start off with a normal stage (well, there are crashes anyway, but still...). Otherwise I really like the two time trials - one long and flat(ish) - but still difficult (something like the Giro TTs of the past few years), and the other one a climbing TT - but still not a MTT, since there is a downhill in there. So if this is true it is just about the perfect combo.
Now we just have to pray that the mountain stages are decent (no 100km mountain stages please), that the first mountain stage is NOT a MTF and that there are some decent hilly stages - like in the Giro this year. It has a potential to be one of the best Tour routes in a while - but ASO has a strange habit of turning a route with a good potential into s**t.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

They should start with a prologue instead of the normal stage - there are always crashes when they start off with a normal stage (well, there are crashes anyway, but still...). Otherwise I really like the two time trials - one long and flat(ish) - but still difficult (something like the Giro TTs of the past few years), and the other one a climbing TT - but still not a MTT, since there is a downhill in there. So if this is true it is just about the perfect combo.
Now we just have to pray that the mountain stages are decent (no 100km mountain stages please), that the first mountain stage is NOT a MTF and that there are some decent hilly stages - like in the Giro this year. It has a potential to be one of the best Tour routes in a while - but ASO has a strange habit of turning a route with a good potential into s**t.

Im not at the 'no MTF as the first stage'-bandwagon, I think especially last year it were some really unlucky circumstances for us which made such big time gaps: Obviously PSM is a super hard climb if raced hard from the bottom which they did, it was after a rest day and it was extremely hot, just as CF likes it. This year we also have a climb similar to Super Besse in order to stretch the legs a bit, this year, the hardest they climbed (and almost the longest) was Mur de Huy, it was a very flat first 9 stages. I think that played a lot into it as well compared to if you have the Vosgues, Juras, Massifs etc. before the first mountain stage in either Alps or Pyrenees.

Besides, I think PSM was a great show and just what I had wanted to see that year: a battle royale between the 4 best stage racers. But as I said, some circumstances just skewed it and made Froome look unhuman compared to Contador and Nibali.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

They should start with a prologue instead of the normal stage - there are always crashes when they start off with a normal stage (well, there are crashes anyway, but still...). Otherwise I really like the two time trials - one long and flat(ish) - but still difficult (something like the Giro TTs of the past few years), and the other one a climbing TT - but still not a MTT, since there is a downhill in there. So if this is true it is just about the perfect combo.
Now we just have to pray that the mountain stages are decent (no 100km mountain stages please), that the first mountain stage is NOT a MTF and that there are some decent hilly stages - like in the Giro this year. It has a potential to be one of the best Tour routes in a while - but ASO has a strange habit of turning a route with a good potential into s**t.

Im not at the 'no MTF as the first stage'-bandwagon, I think especially last year it were some really unlucky circumstances for us which made such big time gaps: Obviously PSM is a super hard climb if raced hard from the bottom which they did, it was after a rest day and it was extremely hot, just as CF likes it. This year we also have a climb similar to Super Besse in order to stretch the legs a bit, this year, the hardest they climbed (and almost the longest) was Mur de Huy, it was a very flat first 9 stages. I think that played a lot into it as well compared to if you have the Vosgues, Juras, Massifs etc. before the first mountain stage in either Alps or Pyrenees.

Besides, I think PSM was a great show and just what I had wanted to see that year: a battle royale between the 4 best stage racers. But as I said, some circumstances just skewed it and made Froome look unhuman compared to Contador and Nibali.

Agree about the first mountain stage being a MTF being okay. If the major MTF stage comes late in the high mountain stage chain then there is the likelihood that that would neutralise the mountain stages before it (like stage 20 harming stage 19 in 2013). Posters seem to be asking for a first mountain stage like Le Grand Bornand in 2007, and that gave us nothing.

In actual fact PSM was probably perfect, since it gave us a showdown, but it wasn't a particularly difficult stage (heat notwithstanding). Imagine if it had been 220 kms with multiple mountains? Froome might have taken four plus minutes on everyone not named Quintana (and Porte).

 

[Valv.Piti]

Exactly, or the first stage in 2008 in the Pyrenees. Or the first stage in 2006 in the Pyrenees.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Exactly, or the first stage in 2008 in the Pyrenees. Or the first stage in 2006 in the Pyrenees.

Well the '06 stage would have been rubbish regardless of its placement. It's probably right up there in LS' estimations with the final couple of Pyrenean stages of '09

 

[Gigs_98]

IMO a mtf as the first mountain stage is really good. The riders have nothing to hold back and if there is a mtf after a downhill finish the downhill finish would be way worse.

 

[damian13ster]

Any news about TTs?
In order to balance route from this year there should be at least one 50km, and one 25-30km pancake flat TT

There are strong Rumours about 2 TT's. One would be from Bourg Saint-Andéol to Vallon Pont d'Arc, the other from Morzine to Les Gets.
The Vallon Pont d'Arc TT would presumably be on july 15th, after the rumoured Mt Ventoux stage on Bastille Day. The exact course of that stage isn't fully known, of course, but it would feature a ride through the gorges de l'Ardeche. If so, it would be between 40 to 52km long (the shortest distance between BSA and VPA is 30km) and be something like this:

Another possibility offers a 5.5km @ 5% climb right from the start and then the same final 20km, but there are some other possibilities too.

The Morzine TT would be after the stage to Morzine/Avoriaz, 22km long and feature a climb up the Col de l'Encrenaz. Like this:

Thanks! Those are some nice looking courses. Hoping they dont include that 5.5km climb in first TT if the rumour about Morzine TT are true.

 

[Arredondo]

Joux-Plane without it's traditional descent finish is a pure crime

 

[BigMac]

Just give this man Col de Tende and it's an instant 10/10.

 

[MatParker117]

Here's what Mr Vergouwen is saying:

Stage 1: Saturday July 2, Mont Saint Michel to Utah Beach – Sainte Marie du Mont, 188km (confirmed)

Stage 2: Sunday July 3, Saint Lô to Cherbourg-Octeville, 182km (confirmed)

Stage 3: Monday July 4, Grandville to Angers

Stage 4: Tuesday July 5, Saumur to Limoges

Stage 5: Wednesday July 6, Limoges to Super Lioran

Stage 6: Thursday July 7, Aurillac to

Stage 7: Friday July 8,

Stage 8: Saturday July 9, Pau to

Stage 9: Sunday July 10, stage finish in Andorra

Rest day 1: Monday July 11, Andorra

Stage 10: Tuesday July 12, Andorra to (near to) Carcassonne

Stage 11: Wednesday July 13, Carcassonne to Montpelier

Stage 12: Thursday July 14, Montpellier to Mont Ventoux

Stage 13: Friday July 15, Bourg Saint Andéol to Vallon Pont d’Arc – possible time trial

Stage 14: Saturday July 16, Montélimar to

Stage 15: Sunday July 17,

Stage 16: Monday July 18, stage finish in Bern, Switzerland

Rest day 2: Tuesday July 19, Bern, Switzerland

Stage 17: Wednesday July 20, Bern to

Stage 18: Thursday July 21,

Stage 19: Friday July 22, stage finish in Avoriaz

Stage 20: Saturday July 23, Morzine to Les Gets – possible time trial

Stage 21: Sunday July 24, Chantilly to Paris Champs-Élysées

Read more at http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/racing/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-route-192041#XOqKQIe9u1FxfDT6.99

 

[rghysens]

Quite reliable rumours are that the stage from Pau will end at Lac Payolle, a little lake at the early slopes of the western side of the Col d'Aspin, after the descent of the Tourmalet.
An optimistic stage design would be something like this:

This means an approach from the west, an approach from the east with (Port de Balès), Peyresourde, (Col d'Azet) and Aspin/Hourquette d'Ancizan is possible too.

The stage to Andorra will start from Vielha and likely end in one of the usual suspects: Pal or Arcalis, without Gallina. But I hope we get Gallina - Comella as final climbs with a finish in Andorra la Vella.

Morzine/Avoriaz and Les Gets as stage 19 and 20 are by no means a certainty, as said by Thomas Vergouwen at his site. From a geographical point of view, it would be more logical to have them earlier (but from a geographical point of view going to Bern from southern France and then descending back south isn't logical either).

Less reliable rumours go that the stage from Bern will either be Bern - Châtel, followed by a stage to Avoriaz and the TT, or Bern - Avoriaz (with Pas de Morgins and Col de Corbier before the mtf), followed by the TT.

 

[bajbar]

Quite reliable rumours are that the stage from Pau will end at Lac Payolle, a little lake at the early slopes of the western side of the Col d'Aspin, after the descent of the Tourmalet.
An optimistic stage design would be something like this:

This means an approach from the west, an approach from the east with (Port de Balès), Peyresourde, (Col d'Azet) and Aspin/Hourquette d'Ancizan is possible too.

The stage to Andorra will start from Vielha and likely end in one of the usual suspects: Pal or Arcalis, without Gallina. But I hope we get Gallina - Comella as final climbs with a finish in Andorra la Vella.

Morzine/Avoriaz and Les Gets as stage 19 and 20 are by no means a certainty, as said by Thomas Vergouwen at his site. From a geographical point of view, it would be more logical to have them earlier (but from a geographical point of view going to Bern from southern France and then descending back south isn't logical either).

Less reliable rumours go that the stage from Bern will either be Bern - Châtel, followed by a stage to Avoriaz and the TT, or Bern - Avoriaz (with Pas de Morgins and Col de Corbier before the mtf), followed by the TT.

That would be a near perfect profile for the first mountain stage and we would thus avoid two MTFs in a row (since I believe that the Andorra stage will be a MTF - most probably Arcalis)

 

[Gigs_98]

Quite reliable rumours are that the stage from Pau will end at Lac Payolle, a little lake at the early slopes of the western side of the Col d'Aspin, after the descent of the Tourmalet.
An optimistic stage design would be something like this:

This means an approach from the west, an approach from the east with (Port de Balès), Peyresourde, (Col d'Azet) and Aspin/Hourquette d'Ancizan is possible too.

The stage to Andorra will start from Vielha and likely end in one of the usual suspects: Pal or Arcalis, without Gallina. But I hope we get Gallina - Comella as final climbs with a finish in Andorra la Vella.

Morzine/Avoriaz and Les Gets as stage 19 and 20 are by no means a certainty, as said by Thomas Vergouwen at his site. From a geographical point of view, it would be more logical to have them earlier (but from a geographical point of view going to Bern from southern France and then descending back south isn't logical either).

Less reliable rumours go that the stage from Bern will either be Bern - Châtel, followed by a stage to Avoriaz and the TT, or Bern - Avoriaz (with Pas de Morgins and Col de Corbier before the mtf), followed by the TT.

That would be a near perfect profile for the first mountain stage and we would thus avoid two MTFs in a row (since I believe that the Andorra stage will be a MTF - most probably Arcalis)

Would be one of the best designed tour stages of the last 10 years. However IMO the placing isnt good at all, because I doubt that anyone would attack on the tourmalet when there is a mtf the next day.

 

[BigMac]

Tourmalet again? So lame, so frustrating.

 

[dacooley]

seemingly the route will be more gentle climbing-wise compared to 2013-2015 editions.

 

[jens_attacks]

that stage with the tourmalet is good. the cauterets one was good too

but the riders don't give a shiit about its history. horrible riding since a long time on it.

 

[Red Rick]

Tourmalet is even more overused than the Alp, but good design, even though I don't think much will happen, especially as its the first mountain stage. This year nothing happened there too, although the there was less false flat. I don't know how steep the final climb is.