Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

So from what I can gather, it seems sure the Tour will hit the Pyrenees before the Alps.

First high mountain stage is rumoured to be Pau to Loudenvielle. I would guess that stage will be Tourmalet followed by Hourquette d'Anzican, with a finish in Loudenvielle.

With Peyresourde 15k from the finish line, I presume.

We should expect either Tourmalet -> Hourquette d'Anzican -> Val Louron-Azet or Port de Bales -> Peyresourde for a Loudenville finish, but the pessimist in me expects Aspin to be the final climb.

There's no point in climbing Ancizan instead of Aspin if they're coming from Tourmalet. Ancizan West is easier than Aspin west.

Climbing Anzican instead of Aspin eliminates the 7km of false flat before Azet though.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

So from what I can gather, it seems sure the Tour will hit the Pyrenees before the Alps.

First high mountain stage is rumoured to be Pau to Loudenvielle. I would guess that stage will be Tourmalet followed by Hourquette d'Anzican, with a finish in Loudenvielle.

With Peyresourde 15k from the finish line, I presume.

We should expect either Tourmalet -> Hourquette d'Anzican -> Val Louron-Azet or Port de Bales -> Peyresourde for a Loudenville finish, but the pessimist in me expects Aspin to be the final climb.

There's no point in climbing Ancizan instead of Aspin if they're coming from Tourmalet. Ancizan West is easier than Aspin west.

Climbing Anzican instead of Aspin eliminates the 7km of false flat before Azet though.

+ aspin from the west is way overrated and only a 1st category climb because its name is famous
+ we already had the aspin last year, so it would make sense to use ancizan this time

 

[Escarabajo]

Some mountains always deliver and Joux Plane is one of them. I would be happy if they include it.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Some mountains always deliver and Joux Plane is one of them. I would be happy if they include it.

Definitely, Joux Plane is a monster. You can put Alpe d' Huez in that same category. And some goes for Mortirolo - you can honestly put it in the Giro every god damn time and I wouldnt mind one bit!

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Re: Re:

Some mountains always deliver and Joux Plane is one of them. I would be happy if they include it.

Definitely, Joux Plane is a monster. You can put Alpe d' Huez in that same category. And some goes for Mortirolo - you can honestly put it in the Giro every god damn time and I wouldnt mind one bit!

Mortirolo was almost nothing in 2012. De Gendt saved it's reputation, a little bit.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Some mountains always deliver and Joux Plane is one of them. I would be happy if they include it.

Definitely, Joux Plane is a monster. You can put Alpe d' Huez in that same category. And some goes for Mortirolo - you can honestly put it in the Giro every god damn time and I wouldnt mind one bit!

Mortirolo was almost nothing in 2012. De Gendt saved it's reputation, a little bit.

Yeah, but if you put Mortirolo where you put it in 2012, thats probably what you are gonna get. Thats not the climbs, but the stage design

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Some mountains always deliver and Joux Plane is one of them. I would be happy if they include it.

Definitely, Joux Plane is a monster. You can put Alpe d' Huez in that same category. And some goes for Mortirolo - you can honestly put it in the Giro every god damn time and I wouldnt mind one bit!

Mortirolo was almost nothing in 2012. De Gendt saved it's reputation, a little bit.

3 things:
1.) Well if the moritrolo is so far away of the finish and there is still a long flat section and a long mtf to come thats not very surprising
2.) The climb used in 2012 wasnt the classical approach. So taking that year as an example for a bad mortirolo stage only works partially
3.) Does your comment mean, you think Morirolo is easier than Joux Plane? Mortirolo is one kilometer longer and 2 percent steeper so, there isnt even a question which of these climbs are harder.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Some mountains always deliver and Joux Plane is one of them. I would be happy if they include it.

Definitely, Joux Plane is a monster. You can put Alpe d' Huez in that same category. And some goes for Mortirolo - you can honestly put it in the Giro every god damn time and I wouldnt mind one bit!

Mortirolo was almost nothing in 2012. De Gendt saved it's reputation, a little bit.

3 things:
1.) Well if the moritrolo is so far away of the finish and there is still a long flat section and a long mtf to come thats not very surprising
2.) The climb used in 2012 wasnt the classical approach. So taking that year as an example for a bad mortirolo stage only works partially
3.) Does your comment mean, you think Morirolo is easier than Joux Plane? Mortirolo is one kilometer longer and 2 percent steeper so, there isnt even a question which of these climbs are harder.

And it's still not the worst Mortirolo stage in recent memory, just think about the 2008 stage.

 

[McLovin]

IIRC one pro cyclist told that Joux Plane is one of the trickiest climbs he ever climbed. If you attack from the start there is the chance you'll be empty on the second half. Armstrong and Menchov were among it's victims.

 

[McLovin]

Thomas is saying the first stage in the Alps will finish at Finhaut Emosson. Now that's a nice climb, especially if preceded by Forclaz like in 2014 Dauphine. Super combo!

 

[roundabout]

Re:

Thomas is saying the first stage in the Alps will finish at Finhaut Emosson. Now that's a nice climb, especially if preceded by Forclaz like in 2014 Dauphine. Super combo!

If that stage starts in Bern avoiding the Forclaz will be impossible.

But it's a bit difficult for me to imagine what they would do to fill the next couple of days before the stage to Morzine.

 

[Moviestar]

Yes that will be stage 17 with start and finish in Switzerland and will have a tough final with the Forclaz (12.6 km/8.2%) and mountain finish on Finhaut-Emosson ( 10.2 km/ 8%)

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Thomas is saying the first stage in the Alps will finish at Finhaut Emosson. Now that's a nice climb, especially if preceded by Forclaz like in 2014 Dauphine. Super combo!

If that stage starts in Bern avoiding the Forclaz will be impossible.

But it's a bit difficult for me to imagine what they would do to fill the next couple of days before the stage to Morzine.

It would be obvious if Morzine would simply be one day later followed by the Les Gets TT which was mentioned earlier. Then probably a flat stage and the finish in Paris. Or what about the finish in Champagnole as the penultimate stage, which was rumored ages ago. If they find a good way for the Champagnole stage the route wouldnt be too bad (although the TT after the Morzine stage would be shitty)

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, but that would limit the Alps to 2 road stages and a TT at most. I guess it would probably be something like a detour to Bourg-Saint-Maurice area (not sure what rumors are for candidate arrivals in that region) before making it back to Megeve/Sallanches/Saint-Gervais to fill the 4 day Alps quota.

 

[guncha]

As of now it looks like there will at least 5 decent mountain stages (Loudenvielle, Andorra, Mont Ventoux, Finhaut-Emosson and Morzine). Since there should be more stages in the Alpes this route should be balanced with 80km-100km of ITT.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Yeah, but that would limit the Alps to 2 road stages and a TT at most. I guess it would probably be something like a detour to Bourg-Saint-Maurice area (not sure what rumors are for candidate arrivals in that region) before making it back to Megeve/Sallanches/Saint-Gervais to fill the 4 day Alps quota.

Is there any chance that a detour in the Alps could include a finish in Le Grand Bornand?

And by the way, what is wrong with just 2 road stages and an ITT in the Alps? Especially given that Mont Ventoux appears likely as an 'extra' high mountain stage. I'd prefer ASO to use the smaller mountain ranges of France a little more. Can even get away with only five stages in the Pyrenees and Alps so long as a couple of those stages are beasts.

 

[amih77]

The Bern-Finhault stage has many possibilities in the Jura before the Forclaz-Finhault duo. I'm sure Contador will have good sensations from Verbier 2009... Should be a great one!

 

[McLovin]

Re:

Yeah, but that would limit the Alps to 2 road stages and a TT at most. I guess it would probably be something like a detour to Bourg-Saint-Maurice area (not sure what rumors are for candidate arrivals in that region) before making it back to Megeve/Sallanches/Saint-Gervais to fill the 4 day Alps quota.

La Rosiere.

 

[Poursuivant]

How often do they alternate what mountains come first between Alps and Pyrenees?

 

[rghysens]

Re:

How often do they alternate what mountains come first between Alps and Pyrenees?

Most of the time they alternate each year, but not every time.
The last 20 editions, it was
1996: Alps - pyrenees
1997: pyr - alps
1998: pyr alps
1999: alps - pyr
2000: pyr - alps
2001: alps - pyr
2002: pyr - alps
2003: alps - pyr
2004: pyr - alps
2005: alps - pyr
2006: pyr - alps
2007: alps - pyr
2008: pyr - alps
2009: pyr - alps
2010: alps - pyr
2011: pyr - alps
2012: alps - pyr
2013: pyr - alps
2014: alps - pyr
2015: pyr - alps

 

[Gigs_98]

I can imagine they use the alps after the pyrenees again because they want to make a stage in the italian alps in 2017 (100th Giro), but they don't want that the race gets decided in a foreign country. However I think its lame that they use the alps as the last mountain range two years in a row. I'm happy it's not the Ventoux like in 2009 but I would love to see a final mountain stage in the central massif, the jura (fe: grand colombiere) or the Vosges (area around Grand Ballon has more than enough possibilities for a great final mountain stage. The stage from 2014 would have been great)

 

[Valv.Piti]

I can imagine they use the alps after the pyrenees again because they want to make a stage in the italian alps in 2017 (100th Giro), but they don't want that the race gets decided in a foreign country. However I think its lame that they use the alps as the last mountain range two years in a row. I'm happy it's not the Ventoux like in 2009 but I would love to see a final mountain stage in the central massif, the jura (fe: grand colombiere) or the Vosges (area around Grand Ballon has more than enough possibilities for a great final mountain stage. The stage from 2014 would have been great)

I think its super fine to use all those lesser minor ranges, but I am curious why it is 'lame' to use the Alps the second time in a row as the last one? Surely thats the place where you have the most possibilities, you can go to Switzerland, Italy, you can go to the Southern Alps like this year, you can pretty much everything and they generally are harder than the Pyrenees

 

[Gigs_98]

I can imagine they use the alps after the pyrenees again because they want to make a stage in the italian alps in 2017 (100th Giro), but they don't want that the race gets decided in a foreign country. However I think its lame that they use the alps as the last mountain range two years in a row. I'm happy it's not the Ventoux like in 2009 but I would love to see a final mountain stage in the central massif, the jura (fe: grand colombiere) or the Vosges (area around Grand Ballon has more than enough possibilities for a great final mountain stage. The stage from 2014 would have been great)

I think its super fine to use all those lesser minor ranges, but I am curious why it is 'lame' to use the Alps the second time in a row as the last one? Surely thats the place where you have the most possibilities, you can go to Switzerland, Italy, you can go to the Southern Alps like this year, you can pretty much everything and they generally are harder than the Pyrenees

Its not lame in a "the racing gets worse" way. I just think that we simply don't see the low mountain ranges often enough, especially that jura. And the fact that they are normally not as hard as the alps also isnt really a bad thing. The riders would go all out in the alps because they can get time more easily, and then they also go all out in the low mountain ranges simply because its their last chance.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

How often do they alternate what mountains come first between Alps and Pyrenees?

The tradition is clockwise one year, counter-clockwise the next, which results in almost always alternating what mountain range comes first.

 

[Tonton]

I just think that we simply don't see the low mountain ranges often enough, especially that jura. And the fact that they are normally not as hard as the alps also isnt really a bad thing. The riders would go all out in the alps because they can get time more easily, and then they also go all out in the low mountain ranges simply because its their last chance.

+1. Even without the Puy de Dome, there're a still a lot of difficult climbs and possible MTF in the Massif Central, the Vosges besides the two ballons have plenty to offer, and my Jura is a bit more tricky: most of the toughest climbs are either on the Swiss side, or at the southern tip (home of the Kardashians ). Yet, as I'm meticulously planning my great debut in the design thread, I came up with an absolutely nasty stage. The Vallee de la Loue, for example features a lot of climbs that can be put in succession, the Cote de Hautepierre (5+K @7.5%) being one of them. A Mont Poupet MTF preceded by Cat3 climbs like the Cote de By west to east would inflict damage. Mont d'Or west side is 5.2K at 10.5% iirc, last km 15-18%, is a monster climb.