Tour de France 2018 stage 9: Arras > Roubaix 156,5 km

[Red Rick]

Any chances the WC final will make sure there's less idiot fans on the cobbled sectors?

 

[Salvarani]

I know who and what them I want to have a really bad day but Im keeping that to myself...

 

[Anderis]

Expect one of Sagan, Quickstep, GCV, or riders like Stuyven to win. Matt white describes it as infinitely difficult for small GC riders, I think they'll ride away from all GC guys.

Out of the GC group, I think G, Nibali, Valverde, Fulgsang and Jungels have the best chance of the GC contenders.

I expect G to free roam & for Froome to have Rowe, Moscon & Kwiat as his bodyguards. Whilst Castro tries to stay ahead and look after poor Egan Bernal. Aso long as Froome & G don't fall, I think they should be pretty good.

Landa & Quintana should be the most worried of the BIG GC contenders IMO. They're never the best at flat stages & making splits. But Erviti & a few others are excellent riders should they be able to keep up.

GVA has been given permission to stage hunt, but Porte has some incredible flat stage riders to look after him. & apparently TVG is pretty good on cobbles. Porte didn't do too badly in 2014 remember.

I worry deeply about Bardet, Martin, Majka & Yates. I also think Dumoulin, Roglic and Uran will be average to good.

Erviti is assigned to Valverde IF he can stay with Valverde on this stage. It's higly likely Valverde will be alone well in front of the rest of his team as he's by far one of the best cobbled riders on that team. Uran has two good cobbled riders to guide him.

I think this whole "guide" thing means very little tomorrow, if the captain himself cannot ride cobbles well.

It matters for positioning at the pave entries, but once on the cobbles, the light captains just can't keep up.... they are going to be bouncing all over the place, while riding on unfamiliar equipment, having to both shift gears and brake differently than they are used to.

Add to that, that the whole route is going to be lined by spectators like Alpe d'Huez, and they will be riding through the famous Roubaix dust clouds, with low visibility, on every pave.... and you have a recipe for disaster for the least competent riders on the cobbles.

Maybe as a guide however, having teammates that can handle the cobbles with be helpful as they'll need teammates near them in case of punctures, etc and we know there will be punctures. Having a teammate means a wheel while he waits for neutral service or the team for a new one. Have more than one to help is more useful in case of multiple punctures.

I think the biggest help from team-mates you can get on this type of stages is when the peloton splits apart. Then you want to have as many strong engines as possible in your group so that your group is riding faster than the other groups on tarmac in between the subsequent cobbled sectors.

 

[70kmph]

Sky plan to have six to seven wheels waiting at each sector along the route, on all 15 sectors of pavé
Three bikes per rider brought in just for the Roubaix stage mounted with aluminum handlebars

https://www.velonews.com/2018/07/to...g-full-on-roubaix-approach-for-cobbles_472276

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Sky plan to have six to seven wheels waiting at each sector along the route, on all 15 sectors of pavé
Three bikes per rider brought in just for the Roubaix stage mounted with aluminum handlebars

https://www.velonews.com/2018/07/to...g-full-on-roubaix-approach-for-cobbles_472276

I hope just for this something fails in an unexpected place with no backup plan. Just to see Sky panic

 

[GuyIncognito]

I don't think that's necessary

Former Sky DSs say Brailsford panicks and demands mid-stage tactical changes even when everything is going to plan

 

[Salvarani]

Re:

Sky plan to have six to seven wheels waiting at each sector along the route, on all 15 sectors of pavé
Three bikes per rider brought in just for the Roubaix stage mounted with aluminum handlebars

https://www.velonews.com/2018/07/to...g-full-on-roubaix-approach-for-cobbles_472276

I hate this team so much

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Sky plan to have six to seven wheels waiting at each sector along the route, on all 15 sectors of pavé
Three bikes per rider brought in just for the Roubaix stage mounted with aluminum handlebars

https://www.velonews.com/2018/07/to...g-full-on-roubaix-approach-for-cobbles_472276

I hope just for this something fails in an unexpected place with no backup plan. Just to see Sky panic

+1

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Expect one of Sagan, Quickstep, GCV, or riders like Stuyven to win. Matt white describes it as infinitely difficult for small GC riders, I think they'll ride away from all GC guys.

Out of the GC group, I think G, Nibali, Valverde, Fulgsang and Jungels have the best chance of the GC contenders.

I expect G to free roam & for Froome to have Rowe, Moscon & Kwiat as his bodyguards. Whilst Castro tries to stay ahead and look after poor Egan Bernal. Aso long as Froome & G don't fall, I think they should be pretty good.

Landa & Quintana should be the most worried of the BIG GC contenders IMO. They're never the best at flat stages & making splits. But Erviti & a few others are excellent riders should they be able to keep up.

GVA has been given permission to stage hunt, but Porte has some incredible flat stage riders to look after him. & apparently TVG is pretty good on cobbles. Porte didn't do too badly in 2014 remember.

I worry deeply about Bardet, Martin, Majka & Yates. I also think Dumoulin, Roglic and Uran will be average to good.

Erviti is assigned to Valverde IF he can stay with Valverde on this stage. It's higly likely Valverde will be alone well in front of the rest of his team as he's by far one of the best cobbled riders on that team. Uran has two good cobbled riders to guide him.

I think this whole "guide" thing means very little tomorrow, if the captain himself cannot ride cobbles well.

It matters for positioning at the pave entries, but once on the cobbles, the light captains just can't keep up.... they are going to be bouncing all over the place, while riding on unfamiliar equipment, having to both shift gears and brake differently than they are used to.

Add to that, that the whole route is going to be lined by spectators like Alpe d'Huez, and they will be riding through the famous Roubaix dust clouds, with low visibility, on every pave.... and you have a recipe for disaster for the least competent riders on the cobbles.

Maybe as a guide however, having teammates that can handle the cobbles with be helpful as they'll need teammates near them in case of punctures, etc and we know there will be punctures. Having a teammate means a wheel while he waits for neutral service or the team for a new one. Have more than one to help is more useful in case of multiple punctures.

I ofcourse agree with that

People just have to realise, that for that to happen, the teammates will have to ride slower than they are able to on the cobbled sections, because otherwise they end up way in front of their captains.

Obviously, the worst case scenario is Movistar, where it's mostly on Bennati to keep 3 captains in the race - of which only 1 can be expected to fend for himself on the stage - it is going to be quite the show to watch tomorrow.

 

[Amazinmets87]

What does the finish look like? They are not finishing in the velodrome are they?

Just outside apparently

Good choice by ASO - finishing with 1,5 lap in the Velodrome, and having to sort out the GC there, would be chaos.

I guess they could have done half a lap, but then, what would be the point?

Meh, I think its more a case of the hallowed velodrome being reserved for Paris-Roubaix.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think this whole "guide" thing means very little tomorrow, if the captain himself cannot ride cobbles well.

It matters for positioning at the pave entries, but once on the cobbles, the light captains just can't keep up.... they are going to be bouncing all over the place, while riding on unfamiliar equipment, having to both shift gears and brake differently than they are used to.

Add to that, that the whole route is going to be lined by spectators like Alpe d'Huez, and they will be riding through the famous Roubaix dust clouds, with low visibility, on every pave.... and you have a recipe for disaster for the least competent riders on the cobbles.

Classics specialists will know the best route across the cobbles... will be able to close small gaps on or after the sections... know when the group is likely to break apart
Of course they can only go so fast if the lightweight climber is bouncing all over the cobbles but it is better than nothing
Sagan in 2015 helped Contador a lot, same for Thomas and Porte in 2014, Cancellara and Andy in 2010.

 

[macbindle]

Tweet from De Gendt:

I can’t verbally explain how much i don’t want to do the stage of tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/DeGendtThomas

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ok, so Sky is not special:
https://nos.nl/tour/video/2241546-sunweb-is-op-alles-voorbereid-70-reservewielen-en-een-speciale-fiets.html

Sunweb have special Roubaix bikes for Dumoulin and 70 reserve wheels with wider tyres (that are also on his roubaix bike)

 

[s.i.]

Yves Lampaert to sneak away while Sagan looks at GvA who looks at Degenkolb who looks at Terpstra who looks at Stuyven who looks at Gilbert.

 

[The Hegelian]

I'm pretty reserved about this stage - it's Russian roulette for the GC riders. Someone will get a bullet, and however cool the spectacle is, I don't like that level of luck being potentially so decisive in a GT.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Ok, so Sky is not special:
https://nos.nl/tour/video/2241546-sunweb-is-op-alles-voorbereid-70-reservewielen-en-een-speciale-fiets.html

Sunweb have special Roubaix bikes for Dumoulin and 70 reserve wheels with wider tyres (that are also on his roubaix bike)

So you don't wish them bad luck any more?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Guess it make no point when everyone does it.

Sky will still present like they are the only ones doing this though

 

[Arnout]

Re:

I'm pretty reserved about this stage - it's Russian roulette for the GC riders. Someone will get a bullet, and however cool the spectacle is, I don't like that level of luck being potentially so decisive in a GT.

Agreed, I’d prefer them to do this stage adter one or two mountain stages which would make it a bit more relaxed and more skill based rather than panic based.

 

[Oude Geuze]

lol it would still be panic, only with more riders feeling like they needed time and try something. The pave will claim the weak and unsuspecting no matter what

 

[Ataraxus]

What is the official start time tomorrow?
Expect an earlier finish tomorrow in order not to conflict with the football final at 17:00 CET

 

[tobydawq]

I think one of the reason for Nibali's success in 2014 was that he faced the stage with the intention to attack. If you have an offensive mindset that will take you pretty far on the cobbles. He will have that tomorrow again and I think Fuglsang will as well. Maybe also G.

So they should all do well. Froome is probably intending to do the same as G, whether he can is another story. Valverde positions himself well and rides well on cobbles so those five should be the best of the GC riders.

The scared ones (Porte, Nairo, Landa, Martin, Zakarin (I'm assuming a bit with these names)) are in for a very difficult time. Support or not.

Sagan is the favourite but I think a Stepper will win. And in that case I hope it will be Phil. He has had enough of tactical losses this year.

 

[macbindle]

Its very dry and dusty. I'm worried that it might aggravate Froome's asthma and then where would we be?

 

[rick james]

Re:

I don't think that's necessary

Former Sky DSs say Brailsford panicks and demands mid-stage tactical changes even when everything is going to plan

Who said that? Sir davie big baws takes nothing to do with the racing during a stage

 

[rick james]

Re:

Ok, so Sky is not special:
https://nos.nl/tour/video/2241546-sunweb-is-op-alles-voorbereid-70-reservewielen-en-een-speciale-fiets.html

Sunweb have special Roubaix bikes for Dumoulin and 70 reserve wheels with wider tyres (that are also on his roubaix bike)

Come on now, where are all the posts wishing Sunweb bad luck and posters telling us they really hate the team??

 

[rick james]

Re:

Its very dry and dusty. I'm worried that it might aggravate Froome's asthma and then where would we be?

Why worry have you any proof dust aggravates his asthma?