Tour de France 2018 stage 9: Arras > Roubaix 156,5 km

[Amazinmets87]

When does stage start? Heard it was early due to WC

 

[hazaran]

Re:

Does anyone have a rough idea what time the will hit the first cobbled section at? I might go a small cycle tomorrow morning but I want to be back in time for the first cobbled section..

13:50 French time at 47kph. Also here: https://i.imgur.com/SdzoDDm.png

I'd probably tune in a bit earlier since speeds will ratchet up beyond 47 kph before they hit that sector and the break could take a while to go.

 

[benzwire]

What does the finish look like? They are not finishing in the velodrome are they?

 

[rick james]

Re:

Froome has a mechanical and everyone waits for him. They all arrive together good and dandy.

what happens if Nibali has a mechanical and Sky push on this place will go ape ***...it will be funny

 

[SHAD0W93]

GVA, EBH, or Demare to win qoth Valverde and Nibali gaiming time on all GC rivals.

 

[rick james]

Jungels will win tomorrows stage

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dumoulin says he wants to really race tomorrow and looks forward to it

 

[MatParker117]

Tony Martin is a non starter, he fractured his spine in the Dan Martin crash. All the best to him in his recovery.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

What does the finish look like? They are not finishing in the velodrome are they?

Just outside apparently

Good choice by ASO - finishing with 1,5 lap in the Velodrome, and having to sort out the GC there, would be chaos.

I guess they could have done half a lap, but then, what would be the point?

 

[SafeBet]

It's cobbles so naturally very unpredictable. A rider crashes in front of you and you can lose minutes if you're left without teammates.

That said, Zakarin and Dan Martin look the most vulnerable among the GC guys. Porte could have problems but he's got a good team, don't know if GVA will wait for him though. Bardet wasn't bad at all on the cobbles in 2014 and is a great bike handler, I'm actually expecting Ag2r to be on the offensive side. Valverde, Nibali, Dumoulin and Fuglsang should try to gain some time. Froome is hard to predict.

 

[hazaran]

Re:

Dumoulin says he wants to really race tomorrow and looks forward to it

Did they tell him the Mini Coopers aren't rated for cobblestones?

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

It's cobbles so naturally very unpredictable. A rider crashes in front of you and you can lose minutes if you're left without teammates.

I fully agree

I expect a few of the more creative DSs, to send out lighter riders in the early break tomorrow, as back up out in front, if stuff happens.

They will be of no value with the captain anyway, on the early paves, where the big classics guys will easily push them to the back, and riding paves is actually easier in a break, where there is less pushing and shoving.

Guys like Bernal, the Izagirres, Nieve, Amador, Atapuma, Caruso, Hansen, etc., should try to make the early break.

 

[vedrafjord]

What does the finish look like? They are not finishing in the velodrome are they?

Just outside apparently

Good choice by ASO - finishing with 1,5 lap in the Velodrome, and having to sort out the GC there, would be chaos.

I guess they could have done half a lap, but then, what would be the point?

Also it's one thing using a bunch of the cobbles, but copying the finish would really feel like stealing from a holy race.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

What does the finish look like? They are not finishing in the velodrome are they?

Just outside apparently

Good choice by ASO - finishing with 1,5 lap in the Velodrome, and having to sort out the GC there, would be chaos.

I guess they could have done half a lap, but then, what would be the point?

Also it's one thing using a bunch of the cobbles, but copying the finish would really feel like stealing from a holy race.

Same owner

 

[Koronin]

Expect one of Sagan, Quickstep, GCV, or riders like Stuyven to win. Matt white describes it as infinitely difficult for small GC riders, I think they'll ride away from all GC guys.

Out of the GC group, I think G, Nibali, Valverde, Fulgsang and Jungels have the best chance of the GC contenders.

I expect G to free roam & for Froome to have Rowe, Moscon & Kwiat as his bodyguards. Whilst Castro tries to stay ahead and look after poor Egan Bernal. Aso long as Froome & G don't fall, I think they should be pretty good.

Landa & Quintana should be the most worried of the BIG GC contenders IMO. They're never the best at flat stages & making splits. But Erviti & a few others are excellent riders should they be able to keep up.

GVA has been given permission to stage hunt, but Porte has some incredible flat stage riders to look after him. & apparently TVG is pretty good on cobbles. Porte didn't do too badly in 2014 remember.

I worry deeply about Bardet, Martin, Majka & Yates. I also think Dumoulin, Roglic and Uran will be average to good.

Erviti is assigned to Valverde IF he can stay with Valverde on this stage. It's higly likely Valverde will be alone well in front of the rest of his team as he's by far one of the best cobbled riders on that team. Uran has two good cobbled riders to guide him.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

It's cobbles so naturally very unpredictable. A rider crashes in front of you and you can lose minutes if you're left without teammates.

I fully agree

I expect a few of the more creative DSs, to send out lighter riders in the early break tomorrow, as back up out in front, if stuff happens.

They will be of no value with the captain anyway, on the early paves, where the big classics guys will easily push them to the back, and riding paves is actually easier in a break, where there is less pushing and shoving.

Guys like Bernal, the Izagirres, Nieve, Amador, Atapuma, Caruso, Hansen, etc., should try to make the early break.

With Movistar they may try to send both Amador and Soler out in the break as neither will be of any use to their 3 leaders if they are in the peloton. If they're out in front and Valverde can hang onto the Quickstep train they could become very valuable. Also remember Soler spend this year's Paris-Roubiax out in the break.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Expect one of Sagan, Quickstep, GCV, or riders like Stuyven to win. Matt white describes it as infinitely difficult for small GC riders, I think they'll ride away from all GC guys.

Out of the GC group, I think G, Nibali, Valverde, Fulgsang and Jungels have the best chance of the GC contenders.

I expect G to free roam & for Froome to have Rowe, Moscon & Kwiat as his bodyguards. Whilst Castro tries to stay ahead and look after poor Egan Bernal. Aso long as Froome & G don't fall, I think they should be pretty good.

Landa & Quintana should be the most worried of the BIG GC contenders IMO. They're never the best at flat stages & making splits. But Erviti & a few others are excellent riders should they be able to keep up.

GVA has been given permission to stage hunt, but Porte has some incredible flat stage riders to look after him. & apparently TVG is pretty good on cobbles. Porte didn't do too badly in 2014 remember.

I worry deeply about Bardet, Martin, Majka & Yates. I also think Dumoulin, Roglic and Uran will be average to good.

Erviti is assigned to Valverde IF he can stay with Valverde on this stage. It's higly likely Valverde will be alone well in front of the rest of his team as he's by far one of the best cobbled riders on that team. Uran has two good cobbled riders to guide him.

I think this whole "guide" thing means very little tomorrow, if the captain himself cannot ride cobbles well.

It matters for positioning at the pave entries, but once on the cobbles, the light captains just can't keep up.... they are going to be bouncing all over the place, while riding on unfamiliar equipment, having to both shift gears and brake differently than they are used to.

Add to that, that the whole route is going to be lined by spectators like Alpe d'Huez, and they will be riding through the famous Roubaix dust clouds, with low visibility, on every pave.... and you have a recipe for disaster for the least competent riders on the cobbles.

 

[vedrafjord]

Also it's one thing using a bunch of the cobbles, but copying the finish would really feel like stealing from a holy race.

Same owner

Doesn't matter!

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Also it's one thing using a bunch of the cobbles, but copying the finish would really feel like stealing from a holy race.

Same owner

Doesn't matter!

Maybe not emotionally, but it does legally

 

[Koronin]

Expect one of Sagan, Quickstep, GCV, or riders like Stuyven to win. Matt white describes it as infinitely difficult for small GC riders, I think they'll ride away from all GC guys.

Out of the GC group, I think G, Nibali, Valverde, Fulgsang and Jungels have the best chance of the GC contenders.

I expect G to free roam & for Froome to have Rowe, Moscon & Kwiat as his bodyguards. Whilst Castro tries to stay ahead and look after poor Egan Bernal. Aso long as Froome & G don't fall, I think they should be pretty good.

Landa & Quintana should be the most worried of the BIG GC contenders IMO. They're never the best at flat stages & making splits. But Erviti & a few others are excellent riders should they be able to keep up.

GVA has been given permission to stage hunt, but Porte has some incredible flat stage riders to look after him. & apparently TVG is pretty good on cobbles. Porte didn't do too badly in 2014 remember.

I worry deeply about Bardet, Martin, Majka & Yates. I also think Dumoulin, Roglic and Uran will be average to good.

Erviti is assigned to Valverde IF he can stay with Valverde on this stage. It's higly likely Valverde will be alone well in front of the rest of his team as he's by far one of the best cobbled riders on that team. Uran has two good cobbled riders to guide him.

I think this whole "guide" thing means very little tomorrow, if the captain himself cannot ride cobbles well.

It matters for positioning at the pave entries, but once on the cobbles, the light captains just can't keep up.... they are going to be bouncing all over the place, while riding on unfamiliar equipment, having to both shift gears and brake differently than they are used to.

Add to that, that the whole route is going to be lined by spectators like Alpe d'Huez, and they will be riding through the famous Roubaix dust clouds, with low visibility, on every pave.... and you have a recipe for disaster for the least competent riders on the cobbles.

Maybe as a guide however, having teammates that can handle the cobbles with be helpful as they'll need teammates near them in case of punctures, etc and we know there will be punctures. Having a teammate means a wheel while he waits for neutral service or the team for a new one. Have more than one to help is more useful in case of multiple punctures.

 

[vedrafjord]

I think you're all giving the DSs way too much credit. The times big teams win races through clever tactics rather than brute force are so celebrated because they're so rare. It's more likely riders from the main teams are all in the bunch together as they hit the first sector of cobbles, and crashes, bad positioning, and poor cobbles skill (power/handling) gradually whittle the main bunch down and split the peloton into groups that drift furtehr and further apart on the road.

 

[Cookster15]

The GC riders would like to ride this stage tranquil. But Vincenzo Nibali thinks otherwise. Therefore it will be super interesting. I hope the GC guys all stay upright. This stage could be Porte's watershed moment. If he stays on his bike and does not lose time it means BMC should be 100% behind him for the rest of the race. But he needs to stay on his bike and not lose time - no easy feat. Thankfully it will be dry. The cobbles might be Kryptonite to Movistar. Quintana will be even more vulnerable than Porte.

 

[Akuryo]

Cant wait for the blue train to smash this stage. Terpstra, Gilbert, Lampaert, Jungels, Declerq. Half their team is really good on cobbles. If they decide to, they could easily wreak havoc tomorrow!

 

[Keram]

Really curious about Bora tactics tomorrow. They have really strong cobbled team indeed. Maybe second best after Quickstep. But they need guide Majka and he shouldnt be good on cobbles so some of them need to stay with him. I hope Sagan will have free role and at least one of Burghardt or Oss with him. Anyway. I hope QS to tear race apart. We really need some action because that 8 stages were mostly underwhelming.

 

[Vasilis]

Re: Re:

It's cobbles so naturally very unpredictable. A rider crashes in front of you and you can lose minutes if you're left without teammates.

I fully agree

I expect a few of the more creative DSs, to send out lighter riders in the early break tomorrow, as back up out in front, if stuff happens.

They will be of no value with the captain anyway, on the early paves, where the big classics guys will easily push them to the back, and riding paves is actually easier in a break, where there is less pushing and shoving.

Guys like Bernal, the Izagirres, Nieve, Amador, Atapuma, Caruso, Hansen, etc., should try to make the early break.

With Movistar they may try to send both Amador and Soler out in the break as neither will be of any use to their 3 leaders if they are in the peloton. If they're out in front and Valverde can hang onto the Quickstep train they could become very valuable. Also remember Soler spend this year's Paris-Roubiax out in the break.

Amador isn’t half bad on the cobbles either.