Tour de France 2019 stage 18: Embrun > Valloire 208 km

[JosephK]

Re: Re:

I'm expecting Movistar to dictate the stage. They will want chaos, to break Alaphilippe as soon as possible, and to create opportunity for Landa to strike hard. A lot will depend on Valverde, and how he feels because of altitude. If he's ok i think he will try to escape on Izoard trying to put the pressure on others and preparing Landa's attack on Galibier. They will need to be very strong, but I think they will try.

It's very possible. For this to work I would expect to see them try to get 3-4 riders up in the break as well.

I'd be surprised if Soler isn't among them up the road, if that plan materializes. . . . Invoke the 2011 ghost of Andy Schleck (for Landa). That was a great stage (finishing on Galibier).

 

[movingtarget]

Yeah I expect Movistar to try something. Astana have had a mediocre race compared to the rest of their season. Another Michelton win would be extreme ! Alaphillippe will certainly be put under pressure, they have no choice at this stage of the race. Some riders are already riding for a podium I think and I can kind of understand it when they are in a good position and never been on the podium before but a lot depends on Alaphillippe's performance. Thomas will also be under pressure, the few falls won't have helped but it's his climbing form that is more of a worry compared to last year. Losing Rowe won't help Ineos either as he does a lot of the early work for them. Be interesting to see how Uran and Porte go in the Alps as well. Expect Landa to continue being a nuisance until the end of the climbing stages.

 

[observer]

excluding allaphillippe, who i expect to crack a-la voekler, the top guys are separated by mere seconds.
I see none of them doing anything today, follow the wheels, set tempo.

Its the guys further down the top 10 who have the opportunity if they have the energy. guys like uran, porte, martin. they could have a nice little alliance going, help eachother gain time overall, perhaps get back into contention.

I don't think movistar will help there, they are strong enough to have their own plan.

Also would love to see Aru stick with the GC guys till at least part way up the finale.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

I'm expecting Movistar to dictate the stage. They will want chaos, to break Alaphilippe as soon as possible, and to create opportunity for Landa to strike hard. A lot will depend on Valverde, and how he feels because of altitude. If he's ok i think he will try to escape on Izoard trying to put the pressure on others and preparing Landa's attack on Galibier. They will need to be very strong, but I think they will try.

It's very possible. For this to work I would expect to see them try to get 3-4 riders up in the break as well.

I'd be surprised if Soler isn't among them up the road, if that plan materializes. . . . Invoke the 2011 ghost of Andy Schleck (for Landa). That was a great stage (finishing on Galibier).

Landa is the only rider who could do a Schleck. There is a 50% chance that he will try, and a 10% chance that he will succeed (gain at least two minutes).

Which means that we have a 5% chance of enormous excitement!

 

[SHAD0W93]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kreuziger goes on the attack again to gain back time and get into the top 10 like in 2016.

 

[boneshaker]

Re:

I wouldn't be surprised if Kreuziger goes on the attack again to gain back time and get into the top 10 like in 2016.

How does Roman cope with high altitude? The peaks in late stages of 2016 Tour were about 1700m.

Can EBH help him in such a way as PS did in stage 20?

 

[search]

Re:

I wouldn't be surprised if Kreuziger goes on the attack again to gain back time and get into the top 10 like in 2016.

he looked pretty banged up after the crash the other day. But on the other hand, he still considered to give it a go even yesterday... so who knows.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

If Landa goes on the attack today, which is more a less a given, I would expect others to go with him. I don't think the other GC lot want Landa to get any closer than he already is in GC and follow any attacks.

 

[del1962]

If Alaphillipe goes across the top of the Galibier with the other GC contenders expect him to take time on the descent.

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

This stage seems like an easier version of the 2011 stage where instead of the Vars we had the Angello

Yes Angello is a HC beast compared to Cat 1 Col de Vars. Plus 2011 finished at the very top of the Galibier not in the Valley of Valloire. Highest Tour finish ever.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

This stage seems like an easier version of the 2011 stage where instead of the Vars we had the Angello

Yes Angello is a HC beast compared to Cat 1 Col de Vars. Plus 2011 finished at the very top of the Galibier not in the Valley of Valloire. Highest Tour finish ever.

Also the previous 2 days had been raced hard.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

I wouldn't be surprised if Kreuziger goes on the attack again to gain back time and get into the top 10 like in 2016.

he looked pretty banged up after the crash the other day. But on the other hand, he still considered to give it a go even yesterday... so who knows.

I didn't realize that he had crashed the other day but if he doesn't attack he isn't going to get into the top 10. The downhill finish should help him. DD need something to be happy about this Tour.

 

[Pantani_lives]

With all the talk about the yellow one would almost forget what really matters: polka dots! Wellens has to be in the break today and take points on at least the first two climbs, preferably on all three. Pinot, who's currently second, can win the KOM without riding for it. Simon Yates might win it by aiming for another stage win. Then there is Ciccone, who will make it a goal and who's a better climber than Wellens.

 

[Brough]

Re: Re:

This stage seems like an easier version of the 2011 stage where instead of the Vars we had the Angello

Yes Angello is a HC beast compared to Cat 1 Col de Vars. Plus 2011 finished at the very top of the Galibier not in the Valley of Valloire. Highest Tour finish ever.

All stages are as hard or easy as the riders want to mKe them.

 

[wirral]

Re:

Wellens has to be in the break today and take points on at least the first two climbs, preferably on all three.

4 categorised climbs today.

At the moment it is a lottery. Unless somebody takes it by the scruff of the neck, a GC guy (probably Pinot) will win it by default.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Wellens has to be in the break today and take points on at least the first two climbs, preferably on all three.

4 categorised climbs today.

At the moment it is a lottery. Unless somebody takes it by the scruff of the neck, a GC guy (probably Pinot) will win it by default.

There’s a number of good climbers (Yates x 2, Bardet, Martin, Uran, Barguil) who are out of gc contention for whom a polka dot jersey would be a nice consolation prize.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Wellens has to be in the break today and take points on at least the first two climbs, preferably on all three.

4 categorised climbs today.

At the moment it is a lottery. Unless somebody takes it by the scruff of the neck, a GC guy (probably Pinot) will win it by default.

That first one is so small I missed it completely.

 

[Blanco]

As is so often the case on web forums (by no means only this one), the majority of comments regarding tomorrow tend towards the extremes: "nothing will happen, they will wait for x" vs. "it will be chaos." Most of life does not happen at the extreme ends of a spectrum of possibilities, and this probably won't be either. But I think there is some nice anticipation building up for this stage, and that's fun to have regardless of how it turns out (i.e., it's not just the final results that make things exciting or worthwhile).

For one thing, we've had to wait 3 days since the fireworks in the Pyrenees last week, and a surprise character has emerged to be one of the protagonists, so it's like waiting for a new season of a series after the last episode of the previous season left us in suspense.

And for those in the "nothing will happen" camp, I too see that this stage isn't as hard as the coming ones, and know that riders/DS's will be worried about risking too much because of the next two days. But that assumes all the contenders ride to their ability. What if, for instance, Thomas has another "weak" day on the penultimate climb and falls off the back? Do you really think Pinot or the others are going to wait for him? So there are many dynamics at work . . . enough for me to set the alarm for 5:30 to get up and watch!

Then you see wrong, this is the hardest stage of entire Tour.

 

[Salvarani]

Hope Landa sends some riders up the road and goes on Izoard.

 

[Salvarani]

As is so often the case on web forums (by no means only this one), the majority of comments regarding tomorrow tend towards the extremes: "nothing will happen, they will wait for x" vs. "it will be chaos." Most of life does not happen at the extreme ends of a spectrum of possibilities, and this probably won't be either. But I think there is some nice anticipation building up for this stage, and that's fun to have regardless of how it turns out (i.e., it's not just the final results that make things exciting or worthwhile).

For one thing, we've had to wait 3 days since the fireworks in the Pyrenees last week, and a surprise character has emerged to be one of the protagonists, so it's like waiting for a new season of a series after the last episode of the previous season left us in suspense.

And for those in the "nothing will happen" camp, I too see that this stage isn't as hard as the coming ones, and know that riders/DS's will be worried about risking too much because of the next two days. But that assumes all the contenders ride to their ability. What if, for instance, Thomas has another "weak" day on the penultimate climb and falls off the back? Do you really think Pinot or the others are going to wait for him? So there are many dynamics at work . . . enough for me to set the alarm for 5:30 to get up and watch!

Then you see wrong, this is the hardest stage of entire Tour.

208km. 4 climbs. And heat? Sounds hard to me also. Not to mention it is 3rd week.

 

[Red Rick]

As is so often the case on web forums (by no means only this one), the majority of comments regarding tomorrow tend towards the extremes: "nothing will happen, they will wait for x" vs. "it will be chaos." Most of life does not happen at the extreme ends of a spectrum of possibilities, and this probably won't be either. But I think there is some nice anticipation building up for this stage, and that's fun to have regardless of how it turns out (i.e., it's not just the final results that make things exciting or worthwhile).

For one thing, we've had to wait 3 days since the fireworks in the Pyrenees last week, and a surprise character has emerged to be one of the protagonists, so it's like waiting for a new season of a series after the last episode of the previous season left us in suspense.

And for those in the "nothing will happen" camp, I too see that this stage isn't as hard as the coming ones, and know that riders/DS's will be worried about risking too much because of the next two days. But that assumes all the contenders ride to their ability. What if, for instance, Thomas has another "weak" day on the penultimate climb and falls off the back? Do you really think Pinot or the others are going to wait for him? So there are many dynamics at work . . . enough for me to set the alarm for 5:30 to get up and watch!

Then you see wrong, this is the hardest stage of entire Tour.

208km. 4 climbs. And heat? Sounds hard to me also. Not to mention it is 3rd week.

Let's make it 3? The cat 3 wouldn't make it to categorisation in a Giro or Vuelta mountain stage

 

[Salvarani]

Sure

 

[Cookster15]

Of course its hard. Length, heat, altitude, 3rd week. Plus all that will make the following days super hard too. Then it depends how the riders and teams race it and who best recovers. My guess is Movistar and Ineos make it hard to see if that cracks JA.

 

[Salvarani]

Movistar has to make it hard and hope Landa handles it best over the next 3 days. He just have to be solid and hope the others has a bad day and he gain back time.

 

[Lequack]

Re:

Andrey Amador did some DIY moditication to his shoes

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